2022/08/18 (058) Technical Analysis

May We Saw US Inflation Peak In June 2022,
But With Still Historic Consumer Prices Ahead?
That`s Why I Don`t Except Oil Above 100 USD Anymore!

Oil Fluctuates As Traders Assess Market Outlook

WTI crude futures fluctuated around $88 per barrel on Thursday morning as traders weighed fears of a global economic slowdown and a bullish Russian supply outlook against falling US crude inventories. EIA data showed that US crude stockpiles declined by 7.06 million barrels last week, while exports hit a record high and gasoline demand climbed to the highest this year. Meanwhile, the US oil benchmark remains nearly 5% down this week as recession fears continued to grip commodity markets. On the supply side, Russia has started to gradually increase oil production amid easing sanctions-related curbs and increased purchases from Asian buyers, prompting Moscow to raise its forecast for output and exports until the end of 2025, Reuters reported. Traders also continued to monitor efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal which could boost Iranian oil exports by about 2.5 million bpd.

Around midday, on thursday, here in europe, Oil prices rose for a 2nd session. WTI crude up to $89 per barrel and moving further away from 6-month lows reached earlier in the week as falling US crude inventories more than offset fears of a global economic slowdown. EIA data showed that US crude stockpiles declined by 7.06 million barrels last week, while exports hit a record high and gasoline demand climbed to the highest this year. On the supply side, investors balance Russia’s gradual increase of output against bans by the European Union on Russian seaborne crude in December and on products imports early next year. The oil market has been under pressure recently amid efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal that could boost Iranian oil exports by about 2.5 million bpd.

Most Important Price Action Areas
For This Week And/Or May Be Next Week Also

   109.02 $ (07/28/2022) 5th high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   107.64 $ (07/11/2022) 2st high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
  107.56 $ (07/19/2022) 3rd high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   107.43 $ (07/08/2022) 1st high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   107.42 $ (07/21/2022) 4th high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   100.34 $ (08/12/2022) 100$ bulls/bear fight as the bulls won that day
   100.14 $ (08/11/2022) 100$ bulls/bear fight as the bulls won that day

100.00 $ (08/15/2022) Stop Price of this 4XSetUp SHORT UKOIL Trading Capability

   95.70 $ (08/15/2022) last price @ 14:02 CET (central european time)

   95.00 $ (08/15/2022) Entry Price of this 4XSetUp SHORT UKOIL Trading Capability

      94.55 $ (07/14/2022) 1st low under 200SMA this year 2022
       92.82 $ (08/05/2022) 2nd low under 200SMA this year 2022

   70.00 $ (08/15/2022) Target Price of this 4XSetUp SHORT UKOIL Trading Capability

But don`t forget. That last night, even european time, while evening in new york, oil futures fell below $88 per barrel, paring gains from the previous session, pressured by a bullish outlook for Russian supply and persistent concerns about a global economic downturn thatcould hurt energy demand. Russia has started to gradually increase oil production amid easing sanctions-related curbs and increased purchases from Asian buyers, prompting Moscow to raise its forecast for output and exports until the end of 2025, Reuters reported. The country also expects its earnings from energy exports to jump 38% this year due in part to higher oil export volumes, in stark contrast to expectations that Russian oil supply to the global markets would diminish significantly. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia’s oil exports rose while output jumped to a more than two-year high in June, according to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative. Traders are also monitoring efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal which could boost Iranian oil exports.

Why Falling Oil Prices Are Good News And/Or Bad News

Crude oil has become cheaper again. What sounds like good news, however, has a catch, says Christoph Mertens from Fürst Fugger Privatbank. „Because if the price of oil collapses, this indicates a recession.“ Oil prices have fallen. The North Sea variety Brent, for example, recently cost around 95 US dollars a barrel, the same as before Russia invaded Ukraine. “The drop in oil prices is fueling hopes of an end to the extreme energy prices and thus of gradual relief for consumers and entire industrial sectors,” says the portfolio manager, commenting on the positive side of the development. But the drop in oil prices can also be seen in a different light. Because: “If the oil price is high, the economy is booming,” explains Mertens. “Historically, when the economy cools, it pushes the price of oil down.” It was above all the latest news on the economic situation in the world that influenced the decline in the clinical thermometer. “Disappointing economic data from China pushed the price down at the beginning of the week,” says Mertens. That`s why I formulated our short trading capability. “And the lower than expected industrial production as well as weak retail sales and real estate data would lead to uncertainty. In addition, the Chinese central bank surprisingly lowered its key interest rate and thus signaled its concern for the economy,” he said. “But unpleasant economic data has also been reported from the USA. Contrary to expectations, the Empire Manufacturing Index, which reflects business activity in the manufacturing sector, collapsed in August. Worries about a recession are currently receiving new fuel,” he also added.

And all that around the psychologically important 100 USD mark. So there are still exciting weeks, even months ahead for both bulls and bears in relation to the price of oil. That`s why I will also focus on the oil price action again in the coming week.