2022/05/10 (043) Technical Analysis – UKOIL

USD Is Likely To Continue Higher This Week,
While US Yield Curve Should Become More Expansive Also.
The 100 USD Mark In Oil Has Been Defended In The Last Few Weeks!


Our German Chancellor Olaf Scholz – a political member of the SPD and perhaps most comparable to Chuck Shumer’s faction in the US Democratic Party – addressed his citizens in his eight-minute speech on May 8th: he explicitly mentioned four cornerstones of future German politics that I consider worth mentioning and that I endorse. Although I have no reason to publicly defend his policy at this point. In his speech on May 8, the “Day of Liberation”, meaning the Allied victory in 1945 over Hitler’s Reich, our decidedly secular left-wing German Chancellor Scholz addressed his people. And the reaction of the oil and gas markets the next day was remarkable.Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who wore a black suit with a dark gray tie, spoke, as always, calmly, prudently and clearly. You might think it’s almost boring if you consume US news every day like I do. He primarily condemned Russia’s “barbaric war of aggression” against Ukraine, and then drew the link to World War II. Since Germany abused the peoples of both countries at the time, it has been striving for – even today – a pronounced political reconciliation with Russia and/or Ukraine.

Scholz calls the fact that President Putin equates his war of aggression against Ukraine with the fight against National Socialism “falsifying history and disgraceful”. Because the most important lesson that, according to Olaf Scholz, the German people should have learned from the catastrophic time between 1933 and 1945 is: “Never again! No more war, no more genocide, no more tyranny!” And that’s why it would be Germany’s duty, Scholz concludes, to support the Ukrainian government in its fight against the aggressor. Not providing any help, Scholz calls “surrendering to sheer violence and encouraging the aggressor.”

It is perhaps remarkable that our Chancellor spoke explicitly of the aggressor and not of Russia or even Putin. He also stated clearly that “For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, weapons were sent directly to a war zone, on a large scale. And we will continue that.” However, he emphasizes that he does not want to take up every suggestion that is thoughtlessly thrown into the room, because Scholz obviously takes his oath of office seriously and emphasizes his task of “avoiding damage to the German people.” Together with the claim to protect German allies, he derived four principles of German foreign policy, which I do not want to withhold from you at this point:

 1.  No German solo efforts – whatever we do, we coordinate as closely as possible with our alliance.
 2. Maintaining Germany’s ability to defend itself is the limit of helpfulness.
 3. We are not doing anything that harms our partners and ourselves more than Russia.
 4. We will not make a decision that will turn NATO into a war party.

With these statements, amn can assume that our federal government cannot yet imagine the end of the war. “But Germany will not accept a Russian dictated peace,” Scholz emphasized in his television speech on Sunday, by the way. Because our Budnes government seems to be convinced that Putin will not win the war – and that Ukraine will survive. “Freedom and Security will win,” he said also, “and contributing to this to the best of one’s ability is the legacy of May 8th.” 

Chancellor Scholz’s Speech
– & How The Price Of Oil And Gas Reacts

The third point in particular is likely to have had a balm effect on the minds of the board members of large German industrial groups, because an immediate gas stop, as was sometimes discussed, would have caused irreparable damage and would have harmed Germany significantly more than Russia. The oil market seems to have interpreted it that way as well, since the gas price has fluctuated in a Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who wore a black suit with a dark gray tie, spoke, as always, calmly, prudently and clearly. You might think it’s almost boring if you consume US news every day like I do. He primarily condemned Russia’s “barbaric war of aggression” against Ukraine, and then drew the link to World War II. Since Germany abused the peoples of both countries at the time, it has been striving for – even today – a pronounced political reconciliation with Russia and/or Ukraine.

Scholz calls the fact that President Putin equates his war of aggression against Ukraine with the fight against National Socialism “falsifying history and disgraceful”. Because the most important lesson that, according to Olaf Scholz, the German people should have learned from the catastrophic time between 1933 and 1945 is: “Never again! No more war, no more genocide, no more tyranny!” And that’s why it would be Germany’s duty, Scholz concludes, to support the Ukrainian government in its fight against the aggressor. Not providing any help, Scholz calls “surrendering to sheer violence and encouraging the aggressor.”

It is perhaps remarkable that our Chancellor spoke explicitly of the aggressor and not of Russia or even Putin. He also stated clearly that “For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, weapons were sent directly to a war zone, on a large scale. And we will continue that.” However, he emphasizes that he does not want to take up every suggestion that is thoughtlessly thrown into the room, because Scholz obviously takes his oath of office seriously and emphasizes his task of “avoiding damage to the German people.” Together with the claim to protect German allies, he derived four principles of German foreign policy, which I do not want to withhold from you at this point:

 1.  No German solo efforts – whatever we do, we coordinate as closely as possible with our alliance.
 2. Maintaining Germany’s ability to defend itself is the limit of helpfulness.
 3. We are not doing anything that harms our partners and ourselves more than Russia.
 4. We will not make a decision that will turn NATO into a war party.

With these statements, amn can assume that our federal government cannot yet imagine the end of the war. “But Germany will not accept a Russian dictated peace,” Scholz emphasized in his television speech on Sunday, by the way. Because our Budnes government seems to be convinced that Putin will not win the war – and that Ukraine will survive. “Freedom and Security will win,” he said also, “and contributing to this to the best of one’s ability is the legacy of May 8th.” 

Chancellor Scholz’s Speech
– & How The Price Of Oil And Gas Reacts

The third point in particular is likely to have had a balm effect on the minds of the board members of large German industrial groups, because an immediate gas stop, as was sometimes discussed, would have caused irreparable damage and would have harmed Germany significantly more than Russia. The oil market seems to have interpreted it that way as well, since the gas price has fluctuated in a can better decide for yourself (not) act – buy/sell whatever you want.

Brent Rebounds as Supply Concerns Reemerge

Brent crude futures jumped more than 3% to above $105 per barrel on Wednesday after losing 9% in the previous two sessions, as supply side challenges reemerged, with the EU working on gaining support to ban Russian oil while major producers warned they may not be able to meet demand without further investment. The EU has proposed to impose an embargo on Russian oil, but a vote has been delayed as some European countries voiced concerns that their economies could suffer. Analysts said that the impact of the embargo could be limited if the ban is watered down, but prices could still go higher. Highlighting supply concerns further, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei warned on Tuesday that when fuel demand recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, the OPEC+ may not be able to meet demand without further investment. This followed the Saudi Arabian energy minister’s remarks that the world needs to pay attention not just to tight crude supply but energy capacity running short more broadly.