2022/05/08 (041) Technical Analysis – UKOIL

USD Is Likely To Continue Higher This Week,
While US Yield Curve Should Become More Expansive Also.
The 100 USD Mark In Oil Has Been Defended In The Last Few Weeks!


Ahead of the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow today, May 9, 2022, the United States and the other G7 countries are imposing new sanctions against Russia because of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. This was announced by the White House in Washington today. Accordingly, all G7 countries committed on Sunday to phase out or ban the import of Russian oil – the USA, but also Great Britain have already imposed a corresponding import ban. The heads of government of the G7 countries had previously spoken to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a switching conference. According to the US government, the punitive measures are aimed, among other things, at the important Russian energy sector. G7 countries want to continue supporting Ukraine against Russia.The group of seven leading democratic industrial nations includes the NATO states USA, Canada, France, Great Britain, Italy and Germany as well as Japan. After days of negotiations, EU countries have still not reached a bilateral agreement on an oil embargo against Russia. Nevertheless, the French Council Presidency and the EU Commission announced on Sunday that work is still being done on guarantees for the security of supply of certain countries. Meanwhile, in Germany, too, there are increasing voices that do not want to overturn the embargo, but at least see its consequences critically – especially for eastern Germany.

In the past few days, compromise proposals have been discussed intensively and important progress has been made, according to the EU Commission and Council Presidency on Sunday. Discussions at all levels would continue earlier in the week. The central point of contention are exemptions for countries such as Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia: They are heavily dependent on Russian oil, which is supplied entirely via the “Druschba” (friendship) pipeline.

The EU Commission had previously proposed giving the affected members more time to fully implement the delivery stop. For some countries, however, the proposal did not go far enough. They demanded further concessions – more time, but also financial support. Bulgaria, among others, also wants an exemption. Diplomatic circles said that technical solutions for the affected countries would continue to be worked on. In order for the sanctions package to be implemented, all countries must agree.

The refineries in Leuna in Saxony-Anhalt and in Schwedt in Brandenburg are at the center of the domestic German debate about the embargo. They are central to the oil supply in East Germany, but at the same time are heavily dependent on Russian oil – and in the case of the PCK refinery in Schwedt owned by the Russian state-owned company Rosneft. The federal government could change the law to put the refinery under state trusteeship or even expropriate it.

US Dollar Has More Market & Fundamental (Monetary Incl. Fiscal Policy) Support Than The Euro,
But I Still Don`t Realize An Mega Bullish Exaggerated US Dollar Optimism In The Forex Community,
That An Another Rise In The Oil Price Is Much More Likey As Not – Independent From The Daily News

From a technical and fundamental point of view, the US dollar should continue to strengthen against the euro (and also against most Asian currencies). US Dollar positioning data remains broadly neutral. From a market standpoint, there is no sign of extreme US dollar optimism. A positive correlation for the euro with the US dollar is unlikely and would only occur with pronounced euro optimism, which I do not currently see. I therefore do not consider hedging against the US dollar to be necessary profitable.

The strong US dollar and rising bond yields held back gold prices in April in US dollar terms, while gold rose by +2.5% in euro terms. There have been fewer gold optimists of late and net futures long contracts have returned to decline. However, gold retains its “hedge/hedging character”, whilein the event of a further geopolitical escalation. In my per sonally point of view, while an event of a possible embargo onembargo on Russian oil, the price of oil should rise again significantly. A gas embargo would most likely lead Europe (especially Germany) into a deep recession.

Our Trading Capability Thus Took Off Faster Than Excepted

On Tuesday, the 15th February, in the 3rd Edition, of our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newsletter, i formulated a trading capability in the UKOIL – incl. with an entry price (93 USD), target price (130 USD) and or stop price (84 USD). In this case, UKOIL reached our target price. Everything i wrote was and or everything i`m still writing is no an investment recommendations. But, in the truest sense of the word, a trading capability for self-deciders. All my readers decide for themselves whether to trade something or not – regardless of my opinion. Because my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newsletter is 100% commercially with 100% the best of my knowledge and beliefs. I always encouraging you to get better informed – to stay even 100% informative. So that you can better decide for yourself (not) act – buy/sell whatever you want.

Use The Psychologically Important Price Action Area At 100 USD As A Trading Capability

Even though I formulated our current possibility at $112. I think it’s more profitable for traders and investors to go long than short. For now, I’m basically neutral on prices below $100. Because I then assume that the Urkaine conflict has been priced out for the time being. Although no financial market happened shortly before the outbreak of war, in February. So that we can assume, if we want to, that the rising oil price is mainly due to the fiscal policy of the left-liberal states in our so-called West. And on your verbal-political green agenda, which sends us taxpayers and consumers back to a green Soviet Union, green Yugoslavia, and or green GDR. In other words, in an (un)intentionally state-organized shortage economy. That`s why basicly above 100 USD rather long as neutral or short. And rather neutral under 100 USD…