2023/05/08 (225) Column

I Am Not Writing Any Daily Colums
I’m Currently In Negotiations With A Financier Who Might Possibly Will Finance
Our Daily DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper All By Himself !?
That`s Why I Don’t Want And/Or Can’t Take Time To Write Useful Daily Columns In The Next Weeks …


The last D2D Edition, in the current format and/or design, will therefore appear on Thursday, May 11, 2023 for the time being. And then back again, regardless of my current negotiations, then at the latest from Sunday, September 03, 2021, again for all interested financial market participants. Whether in the same format and/or also affiliate partners or even a new individual financier !? I don`t know yet ?! We will – one way or another – experience this together from September 2023. So a big THANK YOU to all loyal readers – and until Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 at the latest. If you have any further questions, contact me at Devise2Day@gmail.com …DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

BERLIN BEFORE REFUGEE SUMMIT:
Wrong calculation? – Dispute over finances comes to a head
Shortly before the refugee summit, the tone between the federal and state governments intensified: In an internal paper, the federal states accuse the Chancellery of making incorrect calculations. In fact, the federal government has even scaled back its aid in recent years, despite the increasing number of refugees, according to the 15-page paper from the conference of finance ministers, which is available to the Reuters news agency. It was sent to the other 15 countries on Sunday evening by the Lower Saxony presidency of the Prime Ministers’ Conference (MPK). On Wednesday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet the 16 prime ministers. The argument that the federal government has an ever smaller share of tax revenue is disputed. “According to the delimitation of the official statistics, the federal government’s share of tax revenue was 41.2 percent in 2021, while the state share was 40.5 percent,” the paper says. “With all understanding for the inconveniences of fiscal policy in times of tightening financial leeway, the federal government must finally start to solve its budget problems in its own spending positions and not engage in a bogus debate that the federal states are to blame for its budget problems.”BERLIN DEBATE ABOUT ASYLUM POLICY: FDP announces
“turning point” – federal government refuses further funds
Shortly before the refugee summit in the Chancellery, the dispute over the costs of accommodating and integrating people who have come to Germany has intensified. Hesse’s largest district is defending itself with a lawsuit against what it considers to be an unfair distribution of refugees. “We are concerned with a fair and equitable distribution of refugees within the state of Hesse,” said District Administrator Stolz at the presentation of the norm control lawsuit. This step is the “last resort, that’s a bit of a call for help,” he added.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Inflation, interest rates:
rally, although Fed turnaround is a long way off!

A rally on Wall Street on Friday, although the US labor market data with the many hourly wages and thus continued high inflation make a turnaround by the Fed on interest rates more and more likely. By Friday, the markets had already priced in this turnaround by the US Federal Reserve for July, but now the expectation of an initial interest rate cut has been postponed until September. US consumer prices are coming on Wednesday, followed by US producer prices on Thursday as a reality check for the markets. As before, the markets want to eat the cake, but at the same time want to keep it: the rally is based on hopes for a soft landing for the US economy, but the banking crisis and the Fed’s foreseeable further rigid interest rate policy are being ignored. It’s good until it’s no longer good.

Fed, Interest and Credit!

With the US earnings season largely over, Wall Street is all about the Fed, whether or not interest rates will go down – and credit. Because tonight at 8 p.m. there will be important data on lending in the USA, which will probably show how bad the banking crisis is becoming a credit crunch. Quiet trading on Wall Street today: US indices little changed. Initially, US regional banks continued to recover, but in anticipation of credit data, profits began to decline again. The inflation data from the USA on Wednesday (CPI) and the US producer prices (Thursday) will be central for the markets. Markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates by September at the latest – if the inflation data is higher, these hopes are likely to be dashed.Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

GBPUSD Around 1-Year High GBP10Y Rises Ahead of BoE Decision Brent Recovers from 1-1/2-Month Low Asian Stocks Mostly Advance
EURUSD Close to Over 1-Year High DEM10Y Rises Back to 2.3% Gold Edges Higher on Dollar Weakness Sensex Closes at Highest Year-to-Date
Russian Stocks Approach 1-Month Low
European Shares Slightly Up US Stocks Little Changed

Sterling Hovers Around 1-Year High Ahead of BoE Decision
The British pound remained above $1.26, hovering near its strongest level since May 2022, as traders anticipated the Bank of England’s upcoming interest rate decision on Thursday. UK policymakers are widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5%, given that inflation remained stubbornly high in March, with both the headline and core rates staying close to the record highs seen late last year. The market forecasts rates to rise further to around 4.8% later this year. Despite March’s economic data revealing a larger-than-expected decline in retail sales in the UK due to high living costs and adverse weather conditions, the Markit PMI survey for April indicated that the country’s output expanded at its quickest pace in a year, suggesting that the economy may avoid a recession in 2023.

Euro Remains Close to Over 1-Year High
The euro remained steady at $1.1 in May, hovering at its highest level in over a year as investors anticipate continued commitment from European Central Bank officials to increase interest rates in order to combat high inflation. Dutch Central Bank President Klaas Knot noted that while rate hikes are beginning to have an impact, additional increases will be necessary to contain inflation, stating that he would support a rise to 5% or even higher from the current 3.25%. This week, investors will also be closely monitoring speeches by several ECB policymakers for further insights. The central bank recently raised interest rates by 25 basis points, which marks the smallest hike since the rate-lifting cycle began last summer. Nevertheless, the ECB has signaled that rates will continue to rise as the inflation outlook remains persistently high. President Lagarde has also emphasized that the ECB still has more work to do and will not be pausing the rate-lifting cycle anytime soon.

UK 10-Year Bond Yield Rises Ahead of BoE Decision
The yield on the UK’s 10-year Gilt bounced back to 3.8%, moving away from the three-week low of 3.615% reached on May 3rd as investors await the Bank of England’s policy meeting on Thursday. Market analysts are predicting a 25 basis point hike in the Bank Rate, raising it to 4.5%. They also anticipate that the rate will peak at around 4.8% later this year, as the central bank aims to bring down inflation and the economy remains strong. Consumer prices rose by an annual 10.1% in March, exceeding the estimated 9.8%, while British wages grew faster than anticipated, pointing to a tight labor market. Meanwhile, the April PMI survey indicated that business activity growth in the country accelerated to a 12-month high, bolstering hopes that the economy may avoid a recession this year.

German 10-Year Bond Yield Rises Back to 2.3%
The yield on the German 10-year government bond climbed back to 2.3% as investors anticipate that the European Central Bank will continue its interest rate hikes this year to tackle high inflation. Dutch Central Bank President Klaas Knot has acknowledged that rate hikes are beginning to have an effect, but he believes that more increases will be necessary to curb inflation. He even supports a rise to 5% or even higher from the current 3.25%. This week, investors will closely follow speeches by several ECB policymakers for further insights. Last week, the bloc’s central bank increased its key interest rates by 25 basis points, representing the slowest rate hike in the central bank’s tightening campaign history. Nonetheless, policymakers have cautioned that the inflation outlook remains stubbornly high. ECB President Lagarde stated that the bank still has more to do and will not pause the rate-lifting cycle anytime soon.

Brent Recovers from 1-1/2-Month Low
Brent crude futures rebounded to over $76 per barrel on Monday, recovering from a one-and-a-half-month low of $71.28 touched on May 4th. The market sentiment was boosted by better-than-expected job growth in the US, which alleviated concerns over a potential economic downturn. This positive economic outlook, combined with a weaker US dollar and expectations of supply cuts at the next OPEC meeting, has provided some support for crude oil prices. Looking ahead, investors will be closely watching the US Energy Information Administration’s short-term outlook report on Tuesday and OPEC’s monthly outlook report on Thursday for insights into the market’s trajectory for the rest of the year. Additionally, this week will see the release of Saudi Aramco’s earnings report, as the world’s largest oil producer provides further insight into the industry’s performance.

Gold Edges Higher on Dollar Weakness
Gold prices rose above $2,020 an ounce on Monday, recouping some losses from the previous session amid a general greenback weakness as investors continued to assess the economic and monetary policy outlook. Last week, the metal reached nearly record highs after the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate hike but hinted at the possible end of its aggressive tightening cycle. However, gold prices tumbled nearly 2% on Friday as data showed that the US economy added surprising 253K jobs in April, exceeding forecasts of 180K and tempering fears of a looming recession. Investors now look ahead to US consumer inflation data on Wednesday for more clues on the likely direction of US monetary policy.

Asian Stocks Mostly Advance
Asian equity markets mostly rose on Monday, tracking a sharp rally on Wall Street as regional bank shares rebounded and Apple posted better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, the latest Bank of Japan policy meeting minutes revealed the board was concerned over inflation but cautioned against making hasty changes to the monetary stance. One member emphasized that missing a chance to achieve price stability due to a rushed shift should be considered a bigger risk than a delay in policy change. The S&P/ASX 200, Kospi, Hang Seng, and Shanghai Composite gained, while the Nikkei 225 fell.

Sensex Closes at Highest Year-to-Date
The BSE Sensex closed 710 points higher at 61,760 on Monday, erasing losses from the prior week to its highest year-to-date as the continued recovery of regional US banks and strong corporate earnings supported risk sentiment in Mumbai. Financial companies led the gains, with Bajaj Finance, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Axis Bank closing firmly in the red. At the same time, IndusInd Bank advanced 5% to pare back losses from Friday after rating agencies said the resignation of its chief risk officer should not warrant a price correction. Policy-sensitive tech and auto shares also booked gains with Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, and HCL Technologies all adding more than 2% as hopes of stable inflation raised expectations that the RBI will not resume its tightening cycle.Russian Stocks Approach 1-Month Low
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index held early losses and closed 0.4% lower at 2,528 on Monday, erasing gains from the last session to approach the one-month low touched last week amid pessimism over the government’s fiscal health and the risk of fresh sanctions against the Russian’s economy. Oil companies held their plunge from the last week amid continued pressure from President Putin’s new tax law for the sector, setting levies on a fixed discount to Brent instead of the true Urals oil price sold.

European Shares Slightly Up on Monday
European stock markets closed slightly higher Monday, with the STOXX 600 rising by 0.3% to 467 points and Germany’s DAX 40 finishing near the flat line at 15,953 points, led by gains in energy, banks, and healthcare shares. Investors are eagerly awaiting the US inflation report later this week, which could provide insight into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. Additionally, the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, set to be released on Monday, will be closely scrutinized for clues on lending conditions in the world’s largest economy. In economic news, German industrial production fell more than expected in March, due in part to a weak performance by the automotive sector.

US Stocks Little Changed Ahead of Inflation
US stocks struggled for a clear direction after Friday’s rally as the Dow Jones closed more than 50 points lower on Monday, while the S&P 500 finished marginally higher and the Nasdaq edged up nearly 0.2%. Regional banks booked gains, as shares of Republic First Bancorp finished 9% higher while PacWest added 3.6% after gaining 29% during the session as the lender reduced its quarterly dividend. The energy sector was also in the green as oil prices surged. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the US inflation report on Wednesday for more insights into price pressures and the monetary policy outlook. On the corporate front, although the earnings season is nearing its end, companies such as Disney and PayPal are still due to report quarterly results this week.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

It’s decision week – at least for this summer.
Because at the end of this week, early next week, thanks to new old US economic data, we will get an even better picture of the US economy. And maybe find a (new) reason to keep our open 4XSetUps running.

on Wednesday; US Inflation
on Thursday; US Producer Proces
on Friday; US Import Price
on Friday; US Export Prices
on Friday; US Trade Balance
on Friday; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

The current situation for the us economy and/or the stock market remains a great mystery for most of my writings colleagues – and full of contradictions. I have often said that most of my colleagues, who I mostly also like to read, secretly (un)wantedly (un)consciously prefer to present themselves rather than informing their followers. Please theirself as Jeopardy! Moderators about politics, economy and/or financial markets. Loosing theirself in “What About ISM” – like in an old enimen rap-song! If you know what i mean, of I am not wrong?

However, let it be as it may, in the last week there were lagging indications, such as the labor market, inflation, but also the service sector, which is still booming extremely due to the large catch-up effects due to Corona. On the other hand, the leading indicators have been pointing to an impending slowdown in the economy for some time – and not only in the USA. First and foremost the inverse yield curves or the Conference Board’s composite index of the American leading indicators LEI.

And that´s why I personally come to the mathematical and semantic conclusion, when I have correctly competently classified all the numbers & words about the us economy, that the US economy is in a better scenario than many reporters want us to know. But what sgould do traders and/or investors make of it? That’s another matter! What I analyze and evaluate for you every day – to hopefully inform you even better than my colleagues (without discrediting all other colleagues)…

                 Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our all still open 4XSetUps yet:

                 TradingView Symbol since entry         target stop

long ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545         1.1496 0.9935
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945         34455 25350
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434         35228 31148
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299         17675 12586
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09         63583.07 52516.76
short TVC:UKOIL 2023/04/20 80.75         60.30 89.05

At the beginning of the week, yesterday, we started the checkout right away.
Because “no one has ever died from profits!”, as wise stock market veterans know.
That`s why we closed our long 4XSetUp in the ADIDAS share; after the price target was already traded in day trading on Friday. And I wrote yesterday also, that we`ll close at the 1st price action our long 4XSetUp in the BITCOIN Future also. $29105 was the 1st price action today. And the EURUSD pair also traded today until 1.101 EURUSD. So that not have been stopped out also in this 4XSetUp yet!

date entry target stop TradingView date closed profit

03/20 27945 34455 22875 long CME:BTC1! 23/05/08 29105 +  4.15%

03/20 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935 long ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD

However, let`s get an short detail overview about the last price action in Gold,
because Gold is something like a contrairian USD Dollar, Anti-System Insurance, like Bitcoin

Gold prices rose above $2,020 an ounce on Monday, recouping some losses from the previous session amid a general greenback weakness as investors continued to assess the economic and monetary policy outlook. Last week, the metal reached nearly record highs after the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate hike but hinted at the possible end of its aggressive tightening cycle. However, gold prices tumbled nearly 2% on Friday as data showed that the US economy added surprising 253K jobs in April, exceeding forecasts of 180K and tempering fears of a looming recession. Investors now look ahead to US consumer inflation data on Wednesday for more clues on the likely direction of US monetary policy.