2023/04/23 (216) Column

I Am Not Writing Any Daily Colums
I’m Currently In Negotiations With A Financier Who Might Possibly Will Finance
Our Daily DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper All By Himself !?
That`s Why I Don’t Want And/Or Can’t Take Time To Write Useful Daily Columns In The Next Weeks …


The last D2D Edition, in the current format and/or design, will therefore appear on Thursday, May 11, 2023 for the time being. And then back again, regardless of my current negotiations, then at the latest from Sunday, September 03, 2021, again for all interested financial market participants. Whether in the same format and/or also affiliate partners or even a new individual financier !? I don`t know yet ?! We will – one way or another – experience this together from September 2023. So a big THANK YOU to all loyal readers – and until Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 at the latest. If you have any further questions, contact me at Devise2Day@gmail.com …DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

“Absurd! Completely unacceptable!”
China Ambassador Makes People Sit Up And Take Notice

China’s ambassador to France has sparked anger in Europe by questioning the sovereignty of former Soviet republics like Ukraine. Ambassador Lu Shaye told LCI on Friday that the post-Cold War countries of the Soviet Union “have no effective status under international law because there is no international agreement confirming their status as sovereign nations.”

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell criticized Lu’s statements as “unacceptable”. “The EU can only assume that these statements do not represent China’s official policy,” he wrote on Twitter on Sunday.

When asked if Crimea was Ukrainian, Lu had told french TV LCI that it “depends on how you look at the issue. There’s a story. Crimea was Russian to begin with.” Podoljak said it was “strange to hear an absurd version of ‘Crimea history’ from a representative of a country that has no qualms about its 1000-year history.” Criticism of the Chinese ambassador also came from the Baltic states. Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics wrote on Twitter that Lu’s view was “completely unacceptable”. Estonia’s chief diplomat Tsahkna called the statements “a wrong misinterpretation of history”. Lu’s controversial statements came just under two weeks after French President Emmanuel Macron visited the People’s Republic. Macron had asked China’s head of state Xi Jinping to put pressure on Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin to end the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. Some Western partners had viewed Macron’s efforts with skepticism given the increasingly close ties between Beijing and Moscow. The French foreign ministry said on Saturday it was “dismayed to hear the Chinese ambassador to France’s statements about the borders of countries that became independent after the collapse of the Sovietunion”. China must now clarify “whether these statements reflect its position, which hopefully is not the case”.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Shrink – Problem For Stocks?

The Fed’s balance sheet is shrinking for the fourth straight week – is this a problem for equities? If one believes the argument of the bulls, then there must be a problem for stocks: because the rally was justified by the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, ergo new liquidity, misunderstood by many as renewed “quantitative easing” (QE). However, this was definitely not QE – ie a deliberate expansion of liquidity to relax financial conditions – but an emergency measure by the US Federal Reserve to replace customer funds that had flowed out of US banks. The situation of the banks seems to have calmed down for the time being, which is why the balance sheet of the US central bank is shrinking again. The focus is now back towards interest rates after Lorietta Mester’s hawkish comments yesterday weighed on equity markets. The same applies to the Tesla crash.

Interest Rates – The Fed’s Ticking Time Bomb!

The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates sharply and quickly – and now we are getting contradicting US economic data again and again: yesterday the Philadelpha Fed Index crashed, but before that a comparable index from New York (NY Empire) had been robust. On last Thursday also the leading indicators, which continued to fall significantly – on friday, however, surprisingly strong US purchasing manager indices with price components that have risen more strongly than since September.

Still, the effect of the Fed’s rapid rate hikes will take time to really make itself felt in the economy. Many analysts say interest rates are 12 months behind – meaning they’re still largely ahead of us, with the first “accident” being the banking crisis.Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

GBPUSD Eases At End Of A Busy Week GER10Y Stabilizes Around 2.5% Gold Retreats to $1,980 Asian Stocks Track Wall Street Lower
USDJPY Rises After Inflation Data JPY10Y Hover at 0.47% Sugar Near 11-Year High MOEX Rallies 3.7% On The Week
European Stocks Rise For 5th Week
FTSE 100 Ends Flat, Still Posts Fifth Weekly Gain
Wall Street Edges Up

Sterling Eases At End Of A Busy Week
Sterling eased below $1.24, down from an over-10-month high of $1.2546 on April 14, as Britain’s latest reports painted a mixed picture of the country’s economy. Data from the ONS showed the UK retail sales fell more than expected in March amid the rising cost of living and poor weather conditions. Meanwhile, the latest Markit PMI survey suggested the Britain’s GDP expanded to a one-year-high in April, adding to signs that the economy might avoid a recession in 2023. Earlier this week, the highly-anticipated CPI report revealed Britain’s inflation rate remained above the 10% mark for a seventh straight month in March, supporting bets on a 25 basis point rate hike from the Bank of England in May. At the same time, Tuesday’s jobs report indicated total pay growth was unchanged at 5.9%, beating forecasts of 5.1%. Markets have priced in a few BoE interest rate increases this year that will push up Bank Rate to around 4.9% by September from 4.25% currently.

Japanese Yen Rises After Inflation Data
The Japanese yen appreciated past 134 per dollar after data showed that Japan’s core inflation remained well above the central bank’s target in March, supporting market expectations that the Bank of Japan could normalize monetary policy later this year. The country’s core consumer price index rose 3.1% year-on-year last month, while an index excluding fuel costs increased at the fastest annual pace in four decades. Meanwhile, the currency remains under pressure from the latest remarks of new central bank governor Kaxuo Ueda, who indicated that the BOJ would stick to its ultra-easy monetary policy until price stability is achieved. He argued that Japan’s inflation, which currently sits around 3%, will fall back below the central bank’s 2% target later in the year on decreased import costs. Still, Ueda hinted that the country’s massive stimulus will eventually be phased out.

German Bund Yield Stabilizes Around 2.5%
The German 10-year yield stabilized around 2.5%, remaining close to an over one-month high of 2.54% hit on April 19, after a stronger-than-expected PMI survey from Europe’s largest economies supported views that the European Central Bank would keep to its tightening path. Data showed the Eurozone business activity growth accelerated to an 11-month high in April, with France’s output expansion beating market forecasts and Germany’s activity rising for a third straight month. At the same time, investors continued to digest the hawkish remarks of several ECB policymakers. Markets are now pricing in at least two rate increases in May and June and a third potential one in July. Still, sources suggest ECB members are divided on the size of a rate hike, as some of them advocate no change in May, while others call for a 50 bps move. Vice President Luis de Guindos said the bloc’s central bank was unlikely to provide guidance on the next policy decisions given the uncertainty in the outlook.

Japan 10-Year Bond Yield Hover At 0.47%
The yield on the 10-year JGB has been trading around 0.47% since mid-April, close to high levels of early March, as investors awaited the BoJ monetary policy decision next week. At the lower house financial committee of parliament, the new central bank Governor Kazuo Ueda said the country would approach the 2% inflation target by keeping to monetary easing, even though it may take some time. He also stressed the accord with the government was appropriate, with no immediate need to revise the target. The inflation rate in Japan inched down to a six-month low of 3.2% in March, but, excluding both energy and fresh food, it jumped to a 1981 peak of 3.8%. Consequently, many market participants still see the BOJ tweaking or removing its yield curve control policy by June at the latest.

Gold Retreats To $1,980
Gold prices sank to $1,980 on Friday, falling further from a 13-month high of $2,040 hit on April 13th as strong PMI data from major economies backed expectations for rate increases from central banks in May. Private sector activity in the United States, the Eurozone, and the UK beat consensus estimates and rose at the fastest pace in 11 months in April, pointing to resilience in the services sector despite elevated borrowing costs. At the same time, several Fed officials supported the need for further policy tightening to bring inflation down, with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard favoring a higher terminal rate of between 5.50% to 5.75%. Also, some ECB policymakers called for more rate hikes in upcoming meetings to tame the record-breaking core inflation. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, impacting demand for bullion.

Sugar Hovers Near 11-Year High
Raw sugar futures traded at 24.5 cents per pound in April, hovering near their highest in 11 years amid expectations of weaker supply due to adverse weather conditions. As the Asian cane crushing season has started to wind down, key producing countries, including India, Thailand, China, and Pakistan, have downwardly revised crop projections. Sugar output in India is estimated to drop to 33.5 MT in the current marketing year from previous forecasts of 34.5 MT amid unseasonal rainfalls. At the same time, sugar production in Europe slid on lower beet crops derived from reduced acreage and severe summer drought. The output is set to rise in Brazil, but the higher sugar cane supply would likely be allocated to ethanol. The prices of crude oil have increased in the last few weeks, and the end of gasoline tax exemptions in Brazil will make biofuel blending a lot more profitable.

Asian Stocks Track Wall Street Lower
Asian equity markets fell on Friday, tracking losses in Wall Street overnight as mixed corporate earnings results, heightened economic uncertainties and the prospect of further interest rate rises weighed on sentiment. Investors also reacted to data showing Japan’s core inflation held steady in March, while private surveys for Japan and Australia pointed to expanding manufacturing activity for both countries. The S&P/ASX 200, Nikkei 225, Kospi, Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng indexes all declined.

MOEX Rallies 3.7% On The Week
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed marginally above the flatline at 2,640 on Friday, the highest in one year and notching a 3.7% jump on the week with support from a batch of dividend announcements. Lukoil shares closed flat and held the 5% advance from yesterday as investors continued to digest the dividend payout of RUB 438 per share for the record-setting 2022, yielding 9.2% at current share prices. On the other hand, Rosneft closed 2% down after announcing that it aims to increase output by 2-4% annually over the next five years. The developments are joined by scrutiny in the energy sector as higher oil prices drove Russian benchmarks dangerously close to the EU’s $60/barrel price ceiling, driving many Asian financial institutions to claim they will refuse to process payments. In the meantime, Seligdar jumped 4.5% after announcing higher gold output in 2022, while MMK edged downwards after divulging operational results.

European Stocks Rise For 5th Week
European equity markets closed higher on Friday and booked a fifth consecutive week of gains. The benchmark Stoxx 600 added 0.3% to 469, the highest closing level since February 2022. Healthcare stocks advanced 1.8% while miners fell almost 4%. The German DAX rose 0.5%, with SAP up more than 5% after the software firm reported higher-than-expected revenue and operating profit. The latest data showed the service activity growth rates in both the Eurozone and UK accelerated more than expected in April, while the regions’ manufacturing sectors remained under pressure amid a slump in demand for goods.

FTSE 100 Ends Flat, Still Posts Fifth Weekly Gain
Equities in London finished Friday’s session virtually flat, with the benchmark FTSE 100 closing slightly above the 7,900 mark, as gains in the healthcare and utilities sectors offset losses in the heavyweight materials. Investors continued looking to this earnings season for signs about the global economy’s health while contemplating the future path of interest rate rises.

Wall Street Edges Up
All major US stock indexes finished slightly above the flatline on Friday amid mixed corporate earnings results and as investors were cautious about the future of the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Procter & Gamble gained 3.5% on upbeat profit results, while HCA Healthcare jumped 3.9% after raising its guidance forecast. CSX added 3.3% after the company’s first-quarter results topped expectations.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Merval increased to an all-time high of 288720
EU50 increased to a 15-year high of 4417

that was the most interesting news about the
price acrion, in the stock market.

I didn’t expect that – on the contrary.
I even formulated a short 4XSetIp in the last few days and weeks, which we ended with a minus. Just like in the case of TSLA and/or BABA shares. Hopes for a recovery in the tech sector have so far turned out to be wishful thinking. So this week, the week of truth is upon us. Because this week the figures from Microsoft and Alphabet (Tuesday), Meta (Wednesday) and Amazon (Thursday) will come out. Apple will relese their numbers next week. And much more importnat about that fact is that almost half the market cap in the S&P 500 is now set to report this week – so we’re in for a week of truth with may be likely big price action moves on wallstreet, from tuesday on.

I have reduced the risk of our 4X SetUps – so we have no 4XSetUps in the tech sector anymore. But i`m still remain confident in the DOW Futures. Because the worst should already be behind us – as far as US inflation is concerned (and the Fed’s reaction). Even if some US Republicans are still ringing the alarm bells – some us republicans speak of a mood before the 3rd World War. But that’s only out of an ugly blind, power-hungry, irresponsible, compensatory eagerness to move back into the White House. Of course, looking back, trump’s economic policy was the best of all worlds for the US economy. And by no means is it under Joe Biden. But I honestly can’t imagine that the majority of Americans will re-elect him if he does run again. Because of his reaction after losing the 2020 presidential election. Even if I, as a friend of the USA, would welcome it. And that`s why US Republicans already started talking down Biden and/or the US Democrats in the US Media – and may be underestimating him, as they have in recent years!?

The focus of most financial market participants is ofcourse on the USA, because the USD is the most liquid currency in the world, the US bond market is the largest securities market in the world. And on US Wall Street, the highest capitalized stocks are traded daily. Nevertheless, there are also stock markets around the world that are bullish. Like the Argentinian stock market, the European stock market, and or especially our German stock market the DAX. Which includes technology stocks that are barely overvalued hardly. That`s why we also have a long 4XSetUp in the Indian SENSEX. Because in the historical context, India is more or less in the best of all worlds as far as the economy and/or society is concerned. So that new all-time price actions in the SENSEX, until the end of 2023, should only be a matter of time. As in the DAX Future. Which is not technology-heavy also – but we still have lumps on our legs due to the high green inflation. But, as already written, despite all the right-wing alarmism, I am quite confident that our social-democratic, green, liberal federal government will organize it. Therefore, I remain basically confident for the DOW, DAX and SENSEX. But admittedly not optimistic. Let alone do I see a reason to currently sell these stock markets in the medium and long term (i.e. for the coming weeks and months)…

                 Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our all still open 4XSetUps yet:

                 TradingView Symbol since entry         target stop

long ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545         1.1496 0.9935
long XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26            170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945         34455 25350
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434         35228 31148
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299         17675 12586
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09         63583.07 52516.76
short TVC:UKOIL 2023/04/20 80.75         60.30 89.05

However,
I illustrated today’s front page with the French President and the Chinese Ambassador.
Because the Chinese ambassador in France had caused international outrage: ex-Soviet republics are not necessarily sovereign, he said. China’s Foreign Ministry indirectly backtracked during the course of the day. More about that on page 3 (D2D 48h – Latest News About What Drives The News Media).

In the Financial Markets 4XSetUps (from page 25) i choosed the DISNEY share today.
I came to the bullish/bearish result of 16:0 with the help of the technical analysis – thanks to numerous different indicators. But watch, analyze, and/or evaluate for yourself (buying/selling or not trading).

And last but not least, you can get a detail overview technical analysis (from page 55)
about the BITCOIN Future in the Technical Analysis 4XSetUp – incl. entry, target and/or stop price.