2023/04/18 (213) Column

Work And/Or CFD`s
Back To Reality
And That With The Help Of Every Single D2D Edition Which Helps You
To Help Yourself To Make Better Decisions (Buying/Selling Or No Trading)
And That Not Only But Rather With Financial Market 4XSetUps
So That You Don`t Just Generate Profits But Rather More & More Learning & Learning
With The Help Of Using Until 5 Different Angles About Financial Market Price Actions Daily


If you pursue another professional activity to earn your living, you must first organize your everyday life (i.e. your job and your CFD trading). And that only works if you formulate a time frame and/or trading framework. A time frame to get your life organized – and/or a trading frame also to know what to do while your CFD trading. By the way, on my homepage you can get learning videos and/or templates from my books about these topics.

That’s why I inform you daily, day by day, with Financial Market 4XSetUps, with new old informations, even new price action development. Analyze and evaluate them too, so that you, yes you, are better informed every day than all other financial market participants who do not read our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper – in order to make even better trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading).

Imagine this following pragmatic practical example, my dear faithful reader:
You have read, analyzed and/or evaluated todays Financial Market 4XSetUp and made
the personal individual subjectively free self-determined decision to buy a few CFD`s on the DXY!

Everything so far so good! But we can go one step further also – if you want even 4 more steps.
And this by asking yourself after your trading decision (as in this fictional example of DXY):
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Technical Analysis 4XSetUp?
Is the technical picture of the price action a reason to buy/sell or do nothing?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Scenario 4XSetUp?
Is Russia`s war of aggression against Ukraine a reason to buy/sell or do nothing?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Economic 4XSetUp?
Is the native economy of the DXY a reason to buy/sell or not to trade the DXY?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Central Banks 4XSetUp?
Is the native central bank of the DXY a reason to buy/sell or not to trade the DXY?

The advantage and/or much more sensible uselful pragmatic practical learning effect of this philosophical-psychological approach is self-evident; Actually needless to say! You either get 5:0 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 4:1 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 3:2 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 2:3 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 1:4 reasons to buy the DXY. And that originally just because of the Technical Analysis. That`s it – however you want it – it`s yours…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Putin In Kherson? A Double?
Russia Delivers ‘Untraceable, Staged Images’

According to official information, Putin has traveled to the war zone for the second time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the Cherson and Luhansk regions, Putin met with Russian troops fighting there, according to a statement published by the Kremlin in Moscow on Tuesday. In Cherson in southern Ukraine, the 70-year-old had the situation described to him by the commander of the airborne troops, Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky. In Luhansk in the east, the Kremlin chief met Colonel-General Alexander Lapin and other high-ranking officers.

Meanwhile, speculation arose in Russia as to when exactly Putin’s visit to the troops is supposed to have taken place. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov spoke of Monday. Independent Russian media, on the other hand, were convinced that the trip must have taken place last week. In a first published video version, Putin can be heard saying while presenting an icon: “Now it will be Easter” – suggesting that it was recorded before the Orthodox holiday last Sunday. In the clip, which can now be accessed on the Kremlin website, Putin says: “It’s Easter now.”

According to the Kremlin, Putin was traveling without Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov and without Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained this with security precautions – it was too “great risk” to let the three men responsible for military decisions travel together to a dangerous region.

Putin had already traveled once to territories annexed in violation of international law after the start of the war, which included Cherson and Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Donetsk. His performance in the port city of Mariupol in the Donetsk region caused a sensation a few weeks ago. In the very first weeks of the war, Mariupol became a symbol of brutal attacks and great destruction.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Hope For Interest Rate Turnaround By The Fed Against Recession!

US producer prices, which were lower than expected, caused euphoria on the Wall Street indices yesterday – the large tech stocks from the Nasdaq in particular benefited from hopes of a turnaround by the Fed and ignored the fact that the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate turnaround only comes when the US economy falls into recession! Important data are coming today that show the likelihood of an imminent recession in the US: US retail sales at 2.30 pm and the start of the US reporting season with the figures from the banks this afternoon.

Above all, the outlook of the banks and the statements on lending and bank deposits are decisive. While equity markets rallied on hopes of a turnaround by the Fed, bond markets’ expectations for the next rate hike have remained unchanged – government bond yields rose, not fell, yesterday.

Wall Street: Why I’m now A Bull Convert!

Wall Street got off to a good start today, but then weak US retail sales fueled recession concerns on the one hand, and Fed member Harker made it clear that the Fed would have to hike interest rates further on the other. According to Harker, this will apply above all when the banking crisis calms down again (which actually seems to be the case at the moment – strong figures from the large US banks today). Then today at 4 p.m. the extremely sharp rise in Americans’ inflation expectations in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey – the subsequent rise in US Treasury yields then spoiled sentiment on Wall Street. But otherwise of course everything is totally bullish because the Fed is cutting interest rates even if there is no recession and the US stock markets are just a little very expensive.Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

AUDUSD Rises On RBA Minutes CNY10Y Holds at 2.8% Brent Crude Cuts Gains Asian Stocks Mostly Decline
USDCAD Holds High After CPI US10Y Hovers Near 1-Month High Soybeans Hit 5-Week High Russian Shares Update 1-Year High
European Stocks Rise to 14-Month High
FTSE 100 Ends Above 7,900
Wall Street Ends Mostly Flat

Aussie Rises on Hawkish RBA Minutes
The Australian dollar edged above $0.67, recouping some of its recent losses after minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s April policy meeting showed that members were determined to do what is necessary to bring inflation back down within target. The minutes revealed that the central bank only paused its interest rate hikes this month to allow time to gather more information. Analysts suggested that the RBA could raise rates again, potentially by more than one 25 basis point increase, if inflationary pressures persist.

Canadian Dollar Holds Below 1-Month High After CPI
The Canadian dollar was steady near the $1.34 mark, slightly weaker than the one-month high of $1.33 touched on April 13th as the sharp pullback in Canadian inflation eased worries that the Bank of Canada could resume its tightening cycle. Consumer prices rose by 4.3% annually in March, the lowest in 19 months and dropping sharply from the 5.2% in the previous month as base year effects eliminated inflationary pressure from energy. The result was roughly in line with the Bank of Canada’s forecast that inflation will return to 3% by the middle of the year, strengthening expectations that the central bank will maintain its tightening pause for the near future. On the growth front, the BoC revised GPD estimates to grow 1.4% this year and 1.3% in 2024, before picking up to 2.5% in 2025.

China 10-Year Government Bond Yield Holds at 2.8%
The yield on the Chinese 10-year government bond was around 2.83% in April, closing in on the lowest level in 5 months, as investors digested latest economic figures and wondered if authorities would unveil more stimulus. The GDP grew at a faster-than-anticipated 4.5% in Q1, close to the government’s yearly target of 5%, while retail sales surged at a double-digit pace last month. On the other hand, industrial production and fixed asset investment rose less in March, consumer inflation unexpectedly slowed to 0.7%, the lowest since September 2021, and producer prices dropped for a sixth straight month. The PBoC kept its key one-year medium-term lending facility unchanged at 2.75% on April 17th and injected a net CNY 20 billion of fresh funds into the banking system, the smallest since November. At the same time, PBoC Governor Yi Gang said during a G20 meeting that China’s economy is stabilizing and rebounding, inflation remains low, and the property market shows positive changes.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hovers Near One-Month High
The 10-year US Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, consolidated near a one-month high of 3.6% as investors gauge the Federal Reserve’s plans for rate hikes and the potential impact on the economy. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin was among the latest policymakers to warn that more evidence is needed that US inflation is returning to the central bank’s 2% target. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller echoed a similar view last week, leaning toward further policy tightening amid still-high inflation. These views prompted investors to ramp up bets on another rate hike in June, following one next month, while scaling back expectations for rate cuts later in the year. Meantime, Concerns about a potential US recession and further stress in the banking sector eased amid better-than-expected results from banking heavyweights, including JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of American, and Goldman Sachs.

Brent Crude Cuts Most Gains On Tuesday
Brent crude futures hovered around $85 a barrel on Tuesday after falling 1.8% on Monday, as traders assessed the outlook for demand. China’s economy grew more than anticipated in the first quarter, boosting optimism about the country’s post-pandemic recovery and offering some relief over decreasing oil demand. Yet, Chinese refineries have processed a record-high amount of crude in March, and the IEA has recently stated it expects China to account for most of the 2023 oil demand increase. Meanwhile, prospects of further interest rate hikes, mainly by the Fed, the ECB, and the BoE, raised recession concerns. On the supply side,OPEC+ is set to reduce output starting next month, although Russia’s crude oil exports bounced back above 3 million barrels a day last week, Bloomberg reported. Traders will now keep a close eye on US inventories data for this week.

Soybeans Hit 5-Week High
Soybeans extended gains to trade at $15.3 per bushel, their highest level since March 9, as declines in both Argentinian and Uruguay output offset a jump in Brazilian one. The USDA’s WASDE report released earlier this month suggested soybean production in Argentina will fall to a 23-year low of 27.0 million tons in 2022/23 due to a severe drought, while that in Uruguay will decrease to 1.2 million tons due to a smaller harvested area and yield. Elsewhere, the output by top exporter Brazil was revised upwards to a new historical of 154.0 million tons on a larger area and more favorable weather conditions. Agribusiness consultancy SAFRAS has also raised Brazilian production to a record 155.08 million tons, up 20.7% from the previous crop. On the demand side, imports to China will likely drop in the coming years after the country’s government has launched a campaign to reduce the reliance on imported soybeans by cutting the soybean meal inclusion rates in feed rations.

Asian Stocks Mostly Decline
Asian equity markets mostly fell on Tuesday as lingering uncertainties around the outlook for inflation, growth, and interest rates globally continued to weigh on sentiment. Meanwhile, official data showed China’s GDP rose 4.5% in the first quarter, exceeding forecasts of a 4% gain. The world’s second-largest economy also posted strong industrial production and retail sales data in March, boosting optimism about its post-pandemic recovery. The S&P/ASX 200, Kospi, and Hang Seng indexes declined, while the Shanghai Composite fluctuated. The Nikkei 225 Index bucked the regional trend, tracking a bank-led advance on Wall Street.

Russian Shares Update 1-Year High
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index held early gains and closed 0.8% higher at 2,615 on Tuesday, the highest in one year, with strong support from miners, metallurgists, and banks, as investors continued to assess commodity demand from Russia’s main trading partners. Strong growth figures for China underpinned advances for resource-backed companies traded in Moscow, with coal miner Mechel jumping 7.4% while steel maker NLMK gained 3.6%. At the same time, the Bank of Saint Petersburg carried advances for the financial sector with a 3.5% jump after the Belgian Treasury unlocked $110 million of the bank’s frozen assets in Euroclear.

European Stocks Rise to 14-Month High
European equity markets rose on Tuesday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 up 0.4% to above 468, the highest since February 2022. The Bank Stoxx Index gained 1.3% after earnings reports showed the US banking sector remains strong. Bank of America reported strong Q1 results supported by higher rates and market turbulence. Also, mining stocks added 1.4% after data showed China’s GDP grew more than expected in Q1. Domestically.

FTSE 100 Ends Above 7,900
Equities in London advanced for an eighth consecutive session on Tuesday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 finishing above the 7,900 mark and moving closer to new records, driven by gains in the heavyweight materials sector. Signs of resilience in the US banking sector have been a bullish driver for equity markets, while upbeat economic from China boosted bets on the export-oriented index.

Wall Street Ends Mostly Flat
Three major US stock indexes closed near the flatline on Tuesday as investors weighed the latest earnings releases while Fed tightening concerns remained. Goldman Sachs dropped 1.6% on reporting softer-than-anticipated revenue while Bank of America added 0.6% after topping Wall Street’s Q1 revenue and earnings estimates. Meantime, Johnson & Johnson fell 2.8% after reporting a net loss due to one-time charges related to talc liabilities and the spin-off of its consumer health business. On the policy side, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard was among the latest policymakers to favor continued interest-rate hikes to tame inflation. His Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic anticipates one more 25 basis point hike, followed by a hold at that level for quite some time. Meanwhile, US building permits and housing starts declined 8.8% and 0.8% last month, respectively, while Chinese GDP data pointed to a sharper-than-expected recovery.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Last week, two leading economic institutions, the IFO and the IMF, released new assessments of the current crisis in the economic system. “This strategy of buying time has now come to an end“, was the basic message. Meanwhile, in several big capitalist countries, the central banks are trying to stabilize their national economies. Most recently, the US Federal Reserve, the Fed, met to stop inflation by raising interest rates. The recession beckons the German economy in 2023. On Monday, last week, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) published its current “World Economic Outlook” from April under the heading “A rocky road to recovery”.

In the preface to the report, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas writes unequivocally that “the world is entering a “risky phase” as economic growth remains low by historical standards and financial risks have increased without having averted inflation.“ The head of the IMF currently sees the greatest risk in the recent turbulence in the banking sector. „We live in a capitalist system and, according to Gourinchas, people often only look for “the next weakest link” instead of planning for the long term.“

Hard Landing Ahead? I Don`t Think So, Today!

The report itself revises the “tentative signs” that indicated as late as early 2023 that the global economy could achieve “a soft landing.” In view of persistently high inflation and the recent turbulence in the financial sector, this hope has “evaporated”. Global growth, measured by the average gross domestic product (GDP) of all economies worldwide, was still 3.4% in 2022, but will fall to at least 2.8% this year before possibly rising again to 3.0% in 2024, he said the IMF forecast.

Inflation Remains High

The poor prospects resulted from the enormously high inflation, the attempted countermeasures by the central banks, the ongoing war in Ukraine and “increasing geoeconomic fragmentation”. Global headline inflation is likely to decline to 7.0% in 2023 from 8.7% in 2022 due to lower commodity prices, but underlying (core) inflation is likely to decline even more slowly. However, i except that the us inflation will comes down this year 2023 until christmas to around 2-3%. But because of this green self conflict inflation experience, i wouldn`t be wonder, if the FED will hold high interest rates like today, at least until into bnext year 2024. May be one more hike in may!?

The “Economic Experts Survey” by the Ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy, released on last Thursday, last week, also shows that the global inflation rate will reach 7% this year, then 5.9% next year and also in 2026 another 5%. “For the coming year and 2026, inflation expectations have even risen somewhat,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “Inflation remains at very high levels.”

                 Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our all open 4XSetUps :

                 TradingView Symbol since entry       target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545       1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26       170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945       34420 22875
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434       35228 31148
long NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81       262.47 166.71
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299       17675 12586
long NYSE:BABA 2023/03/29 99.29       125.84 79.48
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09       63583.07 52516.76

And/Or Let`s Focus Shortly About The Price Action Of Gold While Todays Trading Session,
Because It Give Us More Aor Less A Good Sentiment About The So Called Risk Apettite In The Market

Gold Steadies Around $2,000 Mark
Gold steadied around $2,000 an ounce on Tuesday after losing more than 2% in the past two sessions, benefitting mainly from a slight dollar pullback as investors continued to assess the economic and monetary policy outlook. Markets are currently betting that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by 25 basis points in May in light of strong US economic data. The European Central Bank is also expected to extend its policy tightening next month, though the size of the rate increase is still uncertain. Despite the two-day weakness, the bullion holds close to levels not seen since March last year, prompted by a weaker dollar and prospects of the end of hawkish campaigns from major regulators. The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its monetary policy unchanged on Friday, joining central banks in Australia, Canada, India, and South Korea.