2023/02/09 (167) Column

Germany 2023
Our Federal Chancellor Scholz
And/Or The 9 Nuclear Weapon States Around The Globe


Let me put together a few facts – i.e. numbers and letters. So that at least your fears are put to rest.
In order to continue to be able to have a say about nuclear weapons in an instinctively secure, emotionally empathetic, but also more rational way, even to be able to think along with them.

There are currently 9 states on our blue planet that officially have nuclear weapons.
The nine nuclear-weapon states own approximately 13,400 nuclear weapons. While that’s a lot less than at the height of the Cold War, it’s still overkill for the world. 93% of nuclear weapons belong to the US or Russia. Almost 4,000 are immediately operational. An estimated 1,800 of these are on constant high alert (launch-on-warning) and can reach their destination within a few minutes.
All others are in reserve, in storage, or earmarked for disarmament.

The nine countries that possess nuclear weapons fall into two groups:
The five “official” nuclear weapon states
recognized by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): USA, Russia, France, China, UK.

The four “de facto” nuclear weapon states
that are not members of the NPT: Israel, Pakistan, India, North Korea.

Even if the total global stock of nuclear weapons has decreased slightly compared to 2019 (approx. 14,000 nuclear weapons), this does not constitute disarmament. On the one hand, this is due to the fact that the number of warheads ready for use has increased, and on the other hand, budgets for the modernization of weapons are increasing worldwide . In addition, about 150 US nuclear weapons are located in Europe, on the territory of Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey, under NATO’s “nuclear sharing” framework. South Africa possessed nuclear weapons, abandoned the nuclear weapons program, destroyed all six nuclear weapons in 1991 and joined the NPT. Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus renounced the Soviet nuclear weapons stationed on their territories in the course of the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Perhaps as a reminder, my dear, loyal readers, in order to be able to correctly classify everything in the historical context. In the early 1990s, the so-called two-plus-four treaty was adopted. A contract for the finalregulation in relation to Germany, therefore also referred to as a regulation contract. It was a state treaty between the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic (the two German states that gave it its name) on the one hand and France, the Soviet Union, Great Britain and the United States of America on the other. It paved the way for the reunification of Germany, was signed in Moscow on September 12, 1990, and came into force with an official ceremony on March 15, 1991, the day the Soviet Union deposited its last instrument of ratification. The governments of the four powers informed the Secretary-General of the United Nations of the associated final termination of the rights and responsibilities of these four powers and their corresponding agreements and resolutions by corresponding verbal notes of April 5, 1991 in an announcement to all states. The two German states, in turn, declared with the recognition of the Oder-Neisse border expressed in the settlement agreement that the united Germany would finally renounce the former German eastern territories and thus about a quarter of the former German state territory.

The fact that there was no “Four-Power Conference on Germany”, i.e. without German participation, was seen as recognition of the Germans’ right to self-determination. The Two Plus Four Treaty is therefore considered the final peace settlement with Germany after the Second World War and thus marks the end of the post-war period. The end of the world order after World War II until the end of the Cold War. The two-plus-four negotiations are being judged a feat of international diplomacy. Because within a very short time, problems were solved that had shaped and shaped an entire epoch.

And this is where the rub is buried.
And/Or else the cause of the political sense of guilt, the bad political conscience, of my German compatriots can be found. Because in the year 2023 nothing is further away from us Germans than being called Nazis, racists, anti-Semites! Anyone who wants to politically denounce us Germans as Nazis is 80 years too late. And anyone who wants to play World War II can definitely not count on us Germans!

You all non-Germans are also 80 years too late.
Because today, in 2023, Germany has no nuclear weapons, precisely because of our historical political guilt. In contrast to the 4 victorious powers of the 2nd World War from back then – ie Washington, London and Paris – on the one hand. And or maybe also Moscow, on the other side. Which is why our Chancellor Scholz, in 2023, is acting as politically as he is acting. To keep harm away from us German citizens. And he’s doing it extremely well as a true left-back for the Federal Republic of Germany, to use a team sport metaphor, in reaction to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

Because Berlin acts as number 4,
if you will (behind the 3 nuclear powers from Washington, London, and Paris), self-confidently self-aware of its historical political responsibility. And/Or it cannot be politically exploited by one side, let alone the other. And that means not from Moscow either. Without letting his political comrades-in-arms tie a bear to his leg – let alone a Russian one. Since Berlin is currently pursuing a classic, traditional foreign policy peace policy towards the East. Like our Social Democratic German Chancellor predecessors Helmut Schmidt and/or also Gerhard Schröder before Olaf Scholz, with the help of their German foreign ministers.
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Three days after the catastrophic earthquake in the Turkish-Syrian border area, the death toll in Turkey alone has risen by several thousand. There are now almost 12,400 confirmed fatalities and more than 62,000 injured, the state news agency Anadolu reported on Thursday night, citing the Turkish civil protection authority Afad. Just hours earlier, the government had put the death toll in Turkey at around 9,000. In Syria, there was talk of around 2,700 dead and more than 4,600 injured.

Many people are still missing under the rubble in both countries. According to Anadolu, more than 6,000 buildings have collapsed in Turkey alone. More than 13 million people were affected by the massive tremors. According to the TRT World broadcaster, around 8,000 people have been rescued from the rubble in Turkey so far. A reporter from the TV channel reported on the desperate fight against time: “The rescuers refuse to give up.” But the moments of joy about another rescue were becoming rarer and rarer.Nevertheless, there are still success stories: A 24-year-old man was rescued around 64 hours after the earthquake in the Turkish province of Kahramanmaras. According to information from Wednesday evening, a 75-year-old woman was freed from the rubble in Hatay province 60 hours after the natural disaster. A seven-month-old baby was found alive in the southern province of Adiyaman.

The earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.7 to 7.8, shook the border area early Monday morning. Another earthquake of magnitude 7.5 followed in the same region on Monday afternoon
DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Todays Asian Trading Session

The dollar index steadied above 103 on Thursday, remaining sideways in recent sessions as investors assessed the latest Federal Reserve commentary, where officials reaffirmed their commitment to bringing down inflation with more rate hikes. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded less hawkish than expected earlier this week, saying the disinflationary process has started despite warning of further policy tightening if the jobs market remains strong. The latest data showed that the US economy added 517K jobs in January, the most since July and well above the market expectations of 185K. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that robust jobs numbers could fuel consumer spending that would maintain upward pressure on inflation. Investors now look ahead to US inflation data due next week.

Japanese Shares Mixed on Fed Jitters
The Nikkei 225 Index shed 0.08% to close at 27,584 while the broader Topix Index inched up 0.05% to 1,985 in mixed trade on Thursday, following a weak session on Wall Street overnight as a chorus of US Federal Reserve officials reiterated their commitment to bringing down inflation with more rate hikes. Investors also prepared for a raft of corporate earnings from major Japanese firms including Toyota Motor, Tokyo Electron, Nexon, Nippon Steel and Inpex Corp. Technology stocks mostly declined on Thursday including Tokyo Electron (-2%), Mercari (-9.2%) and Advantest (-1.1%). Meanwhile, strong gains were seen from index heavyweights such as Nintendo (1.3%), Nippon Steel (1.6%) and Shin-Etsu Chemical (1.1%). In corporate news, Toshiba fell 0.8% amid reports that a consortium led by Japan Industrial Partners has formally submitted a buyout proposal after securing loan commitments.

China Stocks Rise on Bargain Hunting
The Shanghai Composite jumped 1.18% to close at 3,270 while the Shenzhen Component rallied 1.64% to 12,048 on Thursday, rebounding sharply from recent lows as investors scooped up shares of Chinese companies with robust outlooks. Investors in mainland stocks also shrugged off the latest commentary from US Federal Reserve officials who reiterated their commitment to fighting inflation with more rate hikes. Moreover, concerns about a flare-up in geopolitical tensions between China and the US started to fade. Growth-oriented consumer and technology stocks led the market higher, with strong gains from Kweichow Moutai (1.9%), Wuliangye Yibin (3.9%), Luzhao Lao Jiao (4.1%), 360 Security Technology (10%), Inspur Electronic (10%) and Kunlun Tech (3.6%). Meanwhile, lithium stocks underperformed the market, with losses from Ganfeng Lithium (-0.3%) and Tianqi Lithium (-1.1%).

Hang Seng Surges to Close Near 1-Week Highs
Stocks in Hong Kong stocks climbed 340.84 points or 1.6% to finish at near one-week highs of 21,624.36 on Thursday, lifted by an upsurge in US stock futures after President Biden said in an interview that the spy balloon incident has not further exacerbated tensions between the US and China. The leader also mentioned that he did not believe the US economy will fall into recession either this year or next year. Investors also welcomed news that several analysts, including Barclays and Fitch Rating, had revised higher their GDP growth forecasts for China this year, both citing an accelerated recovery in consumer spending. Nearly all sectors moved higher, with the tech sector climbing near 3% while consumers and financials also posted strong gains. Li Auto jumped 2.4%, as it launched electrified SUVs to rival Tesla Model Y. Other top performers were Xiaomi Corp. (8.8%), Koolearn Tech (8.3%), Kuaishou Tech (3.8%), Tencent Hlds. (3.5%), AIA Group (2.8%), and Travelsky Tech (2.2%).

Sensex Muted in Early Deals
Equities in India rose 53.0 points or less than 0.1% to 60,716.8 in a volatile session during early Thursday, with the BSE Sensex trying to extend gains from the prior session after the RBI delivered an expected 25bps rate hike. Meantime, India’s southern Karnataka state reportedly is in serious talks with Taiwan’s Foxconn over investment plans, potentially becoming the third state to host Foxconn. In the US, Wall Street closed lower overnight, with some Fed officials indicating more interest rate rises going forward as the central bank continued its efforts to curb inflation. Media and pharmaceuticals were higher, amid falls from metals, PSU Bank, and auto. Adani Enterprises and Adani Ports plunged 9.8% and 3.7%, respectively, after an index provider, MSCI, said it will conduct a free-float review of Adani’s securities, due to growing concerns about the eligibility of the conglomerate’s companies for some of its indexes.

Todays European Trading Session

Equities in Moscow closed Thursday’s session on a high note, with the ruble-based MOEX climbing above 2,260 points, driven by gains in the metals & mining sector. Investors continue to follow developments about the government proposal to tax oil producers based on Brent crude prices rather than the currently used Urals benchmark after Western sanctions pressured the latter. On top of that, the government is considering introducing a windfall tax on big companies as the country’s monthly revenues from oil and gas have dropped to their lowest levels since 2020. Among single stocks, NLMK and Severstal were among the top gainers, each up almost 3%.

Equities in London advanced for a third consecutive session on Thursday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 finishing at a fresh record peak above the 7,900 mark, helped by healthcare and energy stocks. Without any recent significant catalyst, risk appetite continued to be lifted by optimism over major central banks nearing the end of their interest-rate hike cycle and China’s reopening. On the data front, Britain’s housing market suffered the sharpest price falls since 2009 in January as higher interest rates weighed on would-be buyers. Standard Chartered rallied more than 10% to lead the FTSE 100 after First Abu Dhabi Bank pressed ahead with a potential offer for the British bank. AstraZeneca was among the biggest gainers, up more than 4%, after posting fourth-quarter revenue aligned with expectations. On the flip side, Entain plunged almost 14% after casino operator MGM Resorts ruled out a second takeover bid for the UK group.

European shares rebounded on Thursday, with the pan-European STOXX 600 climbing to a fresh nine-month high and Germany’s DAX 40 rising above the 15,520 mark for the first time since February last year. Investors welcomed data showing German inflation rate inched higher to 8.7% in January but remained below market expectations of 8.9%, which could ease pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising rates. Markets have also shrugged off hawkish remarks from US Fed officials who reaffirmed their commitment to fighting inflation with more rate hikes. On the corporate front, Credit Agricole posted a higher-than-expected profit, driven by lower loan provisions and a strong performance at its investment banking division, while reported its worst annual loss since 2008 and warned that a further “substantial” loss would come this year. In the UK, Unilever’s quarterly underlying sales growth came in above expectations and AstraZeneca’s Q4 revenue was just shy of analyst estimates.

Spain Stocks End 2nd Day Higher
The IBEX 35 edged up by 0.18% to 9,243 on Thursday, consolidating at levels of June 2021 and tracking its regional peers, as the market weighed weaker-than-expected German inflation rate against the fresh round of earnings reports. Spanish stocks traded in the mix, with the biggest protagonist being Aena (+2.25%). Ferrovial, Mapfre, Unicaja Banco, and Cellnex followed, up more than 1% each. Meanwhile, GRIFOLS (2.42%), Solaria Energia Y (-2.41%), and Fluidra(-2.29%) were the most penalized values. On the domestic data front, Mapfre and ArcelorMittal presented their reports. The former’s net profit dropped by 16% in 2022 compared to 2021, mostly because of high global inflation and severe natural disasters in Puerto Rico, Brazil, and Paraguay. The steel giant also posted a 2022 net profit loss of 37.8% from the previous year due to falling steel prices and increased key input costs.

Italian Stocks Outperform Peers
The FTSE MIB index rose about 1.3% to close at a fresh one-year high of 27,504 on Thursday, extending gains for the fourth consecutive session, outperforming its regional peers. Optimism around better-than-expected quarterly earnings offset underlying concerns about central banks’ next moves. Meanwhile, on the macro front, inflation in Germany was lower than expected at 8.7% in January, while the harmonized figure fell to 9.2% from 9.6% and against the 10% expected.

French Stocks Snap 3-Day Decline
The CAC 40 index rose about 1% to close at a one-week high of 7,188 on Thursday, after three straight sessions of losses, tracking its European peers. Market sentiment was boosted by upbeat corporate results and an unexpected slowdown in German harmonized inflation to 9.2% in January. Domestically, François Villeroy de Galhau, the Governor of the Banque de France, said inflation in France should peak in June and that a recession in France could be excluded for 2023. On the corporate front, Credit Agricole was the top performer, rising 4.3%, after posting higher-than-expected Q4 profit, driven by lower provisions for bad loans and a strong performance at its investment banking division. The main draggers were Essilorluxottica (-1.2%) and Air Liquide (-1%).

Todays US Trading Session

Wall Street Ends Lower on Rising Concerns
The Dow finished more than 240 points lower on Thursday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lost almost 0.8% and 1%, respectively, as persistent concerns about the economic outlook and higher interest rates rattled optimism about upbeat earnings reports and raised worries on companies’ future performance. Richmond Federal Reserve president Thomas Barkin was among the latest officials to acknowledge that the US economy is slowing but warned on continuing rate to ensure inflation doesn’t get entrenched. Meantime, initial jobless claims, the most timely snapshot of the labor market, came in at 196,000 for the week ended Feb. 4, an increase of 13,000 from the prior week, but still poting to a tight labor market. On the earnings side, Walt Disney lost about 1.3% amid upbeat earnings after announcing a restructuring plan that includes job cuts and cost savings. PepsiCo added 0.9% as the soda maker reported quarterly results that surprised investors on the upside.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

This week is likely to be somewhat weaker for equity markets around the world. Because the development in individual stock markets, distributed around the world, is almost in the double-digit percentage range. As such, price losses should be taken as an exhale for this week’s run. Regardless of our open running trading capabilities, I am always trying to identify further 4XSetUps. I have UKOIL at the top of my watch list. But I still don’t dare to formulate a new 4XSetUp trading capability. Because all open 4XSetUps trading capabilities are currently traded in profit. And I don’t want to formulate a 4XSetUps because I’m too greedy and/or can’t get enough of it.

However,
Today Brent Steadies As Market Outlook Mulled
Brent crude futures steadied around $85 per barrel on Thursday after rallying in the previous three sessions, as investors digested the latest Federal Reserve commentary and mixed reports on US crude stockpiles. A chorus of Fed officials reaffirmed their commitment to fighting inflation with more rate hikes on Wednesday, triggering long-held concerns among investors about a possible drag on demand. EIA data on Wednesday also showed that US crude inventories increased last week, in contrast with an API report on Tuesday showing a surprise decline. Meanwhile, the international oil benchmark gained more than 6% in the past three sessions as various supply disruptions jolted energy markets, while investors assessed the impact of a European ban on seaborne imports and price caps for Russian oil products that came into effect on Sunday. Optimism around a rebound in Chinese demand also aided sentiment.