2023/02/05 (163) Column

Secret
US Documents :
An Own Fumble Because The Fear Of An Opponent’s Touchdown


Yes, there are of course serious differences in the handling of secret documents between the cases of the US Democrat Biden and/or US Republican Trump. However, the current US President Joe Biden does not make a good figure, as the media has been trying to sell us since his appointment as presidential candidate in 2020 – and skepticism about a second term is growing.

The wind can turn so quickly in political Washington. And also in my case!
Apologies for that, my dear, loyal readers. Because after the disappointingly bitter lack of political red wave in the USA – with regard to the midterm elections 2022 – I too have had enough of Donald Trump and his supporters since then! But a thinking person also changes his mind, not always – and in the case of Trump and/or Biden, I would like to do that explicitly. Because Trump doesn’t prevail with the US Republicans and/or Biden as well i`m afraid that USA will fall behind emotionally. Even if I can very well imagine Nikki Haley as the first woman to have the last word, let alone Ron DeSantis, also at the top of the US Republican Party. Because too many positive as well as negative emotions accompanied the last two US presidents to the White House – also thanks to the internet and social media. Which, if I classify it correctly, manifests itself in the USA, more or less, in a political phobia – i.e. fear of fear. What we all feel, but find it difficult to put into words – even my humble self.

I define a phobia as a fear of fear – i.e. fear of a certain future. Like, for example, the fear of their own team, felt by their own NFL football fans, of having a fumble organized during their own attack. To then concede a touchdown in the counterattack. Whereby we can also break down the fear of fear as a fear of surrender (the schizoid personalities), the fear of fear as a fear of self-realization (the depressed personalities), as the fear of fear as a fear of change (the compulsive personalities), as the fear of fear of necessity (the hysterical personalities) – if we like. And it is precisely this fear, these fears of an imminent catastrophe, i.e. fear of fear, that I feel as a friend of the USA, in the US media, both in the red team of the US Republicans and/or now increasingly also in the blue team of the US Democrats.

Until the beginning of the year,
these political fears about the future in the USA blew the US Republicans in the face:
Kevin McCarthy was only elected Speaker of the House of Representatives after 15 embarrassing rounds. But in the meantime the wind seems to have turned, as the phobia in the US media is currently whistling aroundJoe Biden’s ears. Everything revolves around secret documents from his time as Vice President. The damage to Biden is enormous. Especially because, until recently, Democrats gleefully criticized Donald Trump for his handling of privately stored secret files. Biden personally called Trump’s behavior “irresponsible” in a television interview. The current US President’s accusation against his predecessor is now turning against Biden himself! But are the US Democrats going so far as to stop making him their Democratic presidential candidate after all?

Yes, there are major differences between the two cases – as far as US classified documents are concerned. Trump was dealing with significantly more documents, more than a hundred. And Trump has long refused to cooperate with investigators. Biden’s advisers, on the other hand, cooperated on their own initiative. Which leads me to suspect that US Democrats want US Republicans to run into the wall in this US media political narrative! Because I honestly ask myself: does the US American, the electorate, differentiate in any way at all? My fear, most probably not; hence my column today! Because I can’t shake the feeling that Biden is unnecessarily increasing the home-made damage – as in the case of his self-organized US inflation, let alone weak US foreign policy.

However, the question remains unanswered as to why everything is only now coming to light, and only in bits and pieces, even though the first classified files were found before the congressional elections in early November 2022. Likewise, whether the US secret documents harm Biden’s ambitions for a renewed presidential candidacy. When Biden could no longer avoid a personal statement, he not only got stuck several times in the middle of his own formulations. He also awkwardly joked about the vintage “Corvette” in his garage, where some of the files were stored. None of this is sovereign presidential. Because Biden also knows that the timing could not be more inappropriate. He actually wanted to announce shortly after the beginning of 2023 whether he would run again as the US Democratic presidential candidate – or not. If i`m not wring, he seems determined to do so. At least that’s the impression I get. But skepticism as to whether Biden is actually the candidate of the future will now grow again in their own ranks, the US Democrats. And rightly so. But anyone who sees himself as a friend of the USA, like my humble person, can only advise him and the US Democrats to carry on. As did the US Republicans – and Donald Trump. So that the cult of political fears about the future – i.e. the fear of fear in the USA, above all in the US TV stations and also social media – comes to an end one way or another, regardless of the result, in 2024…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

The US military shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon after days of observation. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed on Saturday (local time) that US fighter jets, on the instructions of US President Joe Biden, had crashed “the surveillance balloon launched by and belonging to the People’s Republic of China” off the Atlantic coast of South Carolina. The US accused China of spying on the balloon. Beijing protested against the “obvious overreaction” on Sunday and again rejected the allegations. Colombia, meanwhile, informed about the intrusion of an object with “similar properties to a balloon” in its airspace.

Biden told reporters on Saturday that he had given the order to launch the balloon over the United States several days ago. As early as Wednesday, when he was informed about the balloon, he ordered the flying object to be shot down “as quickly as possible”. A risk for the people on the ground should be ruled out. Therefore, it was decided to shoot down the flying object only over the sea but within US sovereign territory.

Launching the balloon over land would have been too dangerous due to the size and height of the balloon and its load, Secretary of Defense Austin said. China tried to use the balloon to monitor strategic locations on the US mainland, he stressed. He spoke of an “unacceptable violation” of US sovereignty. Several Republicans, including former US President Donald Trump, had called for the balloon to be shot down.

The Chinese government expressed its “strong dissatisfaction” with the use of force by the US against a “civilian unmanned airship”. It is a “serious violation” of international practices. China reserves the right to “necessary reactions”, said a foreign ministry spokesman in Beijing. China had repeatedly informed the United States that the balloon was for civilian purposes and had flown over the United States “due to force majeure, which was completely coincidental.” The Pentagon itself said the balloon posed no threat to the military or people on the ground. After the launch, a senior Pentagon official said recovery of the balloon was now in full swing. “It’s not clear how long it will take,” he said. The wreckage is in relatively shallow water, which would make salvage “pretty easy.” The balloon had been observed and tracked for some time. He appeared over Alaska on January 28th, over Canada on January 30th and over the US state of Idaho on January 31st.
DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

The annual meeting dates of the central bank of the most trade currencies of the world are this week on Tuesday in Australia, on Wednesday in Iceland and/or India, on Thursday in Serbia and/or Sweden, on Friday in Russia. But the speeches of the US Federal Reserve Board members will also be decisive for the foreign exchange market, and/or as a result, indirectly, more or less, not only for the us wallstreet. Because it is the last week before the upcoming us inflation data. Because if they fall further – and at least not higher than expected – we can assume that the FED has more or less everything in the detailed overview. And we can assume that our 4XSetUps won’t be stopped out at least! But then more about that, in the five 4XSetUps, in the daily D2D Editions.

In the US, earnings reports, Michigan consumer confidence, and/or trade balance data will take the spotlight, this week.
Also, the main focus will be on central bank meetings in Australia and/or India – and inflation data in Germany, China, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, and the Philippines. Finally, the UK, Indonesia, and Malaysia will be posting Q4 GDP growth figures, and/or Canada – the unemployment rate.

Todays Asian Trading Session

Asian equity markets were mixed on Friday as investors weighed expectations that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle may be nearing its peak against disappointing earnings from major US firms. Investors also assessed mostly positive PMI data in Asia which reduces pressure on authorities to maintain an accommodative stance. Shares in Australia and Japan rose, while Hong Kong and Chinese stocks fell.

China Stocks Fall Amid Strong PMI Data, while Japanese Shares Rise on Tech Boost. Hong Kong Stocks Set to Close Week on Sour Note and/or India Shares on Track for Strong Gains Weekly.

Todays European Trading Session

Equities in Moscow increased for the sixth day in a row on Friday, with the ruble-based MOEX recovering from a weak opening to close at an over four-month peak of around 2,250 points, driven by gains in the oil and gas sector. Giant Gazprom jumped more than 2% to lead the MOEX index after the Ministry of Finance proposed to withdraw Gazprom from the income tax for LNG exporters. In other corporate news, Russian confectioner Krasny Oktyabr reported revenue results that surprised investors on the upside. The MOEX rallied roughly 2.7% this week, recording a second consecutive weekly gain.

Equities in London rallied more than 1% on Friday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 clinching a new closing record at 7,900, driven by gains in the energy and healthcare sector. Heavyweight Shell jumped more than 3% to lead the index. The benchmark advanced almost 2% this week after the Bank of England sounded dovish, saying that inflation had probably peaked and forecasting a shallower recession in 2023 after raising interest rates by a widely expected 50 bps. The reopening of China has also attracted investors amid prospects that it will lead to a massive demand for commodities.

European equity markets recovered and closed higher on Friday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 rising 0.3% to an over 9-month high at above 460 and the London’s FTSE 100 hit a record high following a slide in the pound. Domestically, however, the German DAX retreated 0.2%. Investors worried that the ECB and the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer following the releases of higher-than-expected PPI numbers from the Eurozone and stronger-than-expected job growth in the US. On Thursday, stocks rallied on hopes of the global rate hiking cycle nearing an end after the ECB, Bank of England, and US Fed hiked interest rates as expected. On the corporate front, Sanofi was under pressure after forecasting moderate 2023 earnings growth, while TomTom surged after raising its 2023 guidance following better-than-expected Q4 revenue.

The FTSE MIB Index decreased 0.55%
In Milan the FTSE MIB Index decreased 150 points or 0.55 percent on Friday. Losses were driven by Intesa Sanpaolo (-2.99%), Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale (-2.57%) and A2A (-1.92%). Biggest rises came from MFE-MediaForEurope (6.03%), Brunello Cucinelli (3.93%) and Pirelli & C (3.26%).

French Stocks Attempt to Rebound
The CAC 40 index reversed early losses to close 0.9% higher at 7,234 on Friday, mainly pushed up by a nearly 5% rise in shares of Publicis Groupe. Barclays raised its recommendation on the advertising group from “online weighting” to “overweight” and raised its price target from 68 to 85 euros, the day after the publication of its annual results. Meanwhile, investors digested the latest data, which highlighted the strength of the US labor market while suggesting that the US Federal Reserve is not done with its rate hikes. On the domestic data front, industrial production growth eased to 1.1% mom in December of 2022, from 2% growth in November and a final PMI survey also showed France’s services sector contracted in January due to a fall in new orders. On the week, the CAC 40 advanced more than 1.5%.

Spain Stocks Close Flat
The Ibex 35 closed almost flat at 9225 on Friday, driven by a nearly 3% rise of Grifols and an almost 2% rise of Amadeus and Banco Santander. BBVA has also added 1.60% while other financials underperformed despite CaixaBank’s positive report of a 3,145 million euros net attributable profit in 2022, 29.7% more than last year’s. Today Credit Suisse raised Santander’s target price to 4.5 euros ($4.90) from 4.4 euros, helping the institution return to growth. Meanwhile, investors digested the latest data, which highlighted the strength of the US labor market while suggesting that the Fed is not done. On the domestic data front, Spanish PMI rose further to 52.7 in January, expanding for the third month and lifting the sentiment. On the week, the index was on track to book a 1.8% gain.

Todays US Trading Session

The ISM Services PMI for the US unexpectedly jumped to 55.2 in January of 2023, rebounding sharply from over a 2-1/2 year low of 49.2 in December, and beating market forecasts of 50.4. Capacity and logistics performance continued to improve and the majority of companies indicated that business is trending in a positive direction. Faster increases were seen for business activity/production (60.4 vs 53.5) and backlogs of orders (52.9 vs 51.5) while a rebound was recorded for new orders (60.4 vs 45.2). Also, employment was unchanged (50 vs 49.4) as some companies still find it difficult to fill open positions, while others are facilitating staff reductions. Also, price pressures eased (67.8 vs 68.1) and supplier deliveries (50 vs 48.5) indicated unchanged performance.

US stocks were under pressure on Friday, with the Dow Jones falling more than 200 points, and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were down 1.3% and 1.9%, respectively, as better-than-expected jobs data threw some cold water into expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon end its tightening campaign. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report showed that US employers hired more workers than expected in January, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 517,000 jobs last month. Also, dismal earnings from Wall Street tech giants Apple, Google parent Alphabet, and Amazon.com weighed on sentiment. Meanwhile, ISM data showed that the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, rebounded sharply in January. For the week, the Nasdaq 100 rallied more than 4%, on track for a fifth consecutive weekly gain and the S&P 500 added 1.8%; while the Dow Jones was set for a small weekly decline.

US Treasury Yields Extend the Rise after NFP, ISM Data
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, rose 15bps to 3.55% on Friday, after the payrolls report totally surprised on the upside, showing the US economy added 517K jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. Also, the ISM Services PMI pointed to a way bigger-than-expected improvement in the services sector last month. The strong data added to evidence the US labour market remains strong and the economy continues to be resilient. Traders now see the Fed raising the fed funds rate to 5%-5.25% before pausing, above 5% expected before the payrolls release. Meanwhile, the two-year Treasury yields have climbed 20bps to 4.29% and the thirty-year one 10bps to 3.66%.

US Stocks Slip after Strong Job Report
The Dow closed more than 100 points lower on Friday, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dipped in negative territory by 1% and 1.6%, respectively, as strong job reports signaled that the Fed will continue its tightening cycle pushing rates above 5%. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report showed that US employers hired more workers than expected in January, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 517,000 jobs last month. On top of that, ISM data showed that the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, rebounded sharply in January. Traders also digested disappointing earning results from Alphabet (-2.7%), and Amazon (-8.4%) that dragged them down, while Apple rebounded from early losses and finished 2.4% higher. For the week, the Nasdaq 100 rallied 4.1%, marked the fifth consecutive weekly gain. The S&P 500 added almost 2% and posted second straight weekly gain, while the Dow lost 0.1%.

DXY Recovers from 9-Month Low
The dollar index rose to above 102 on Friday, recovering from a nine-month low of 100.82 in the previous session, after the latest jobs surprised on the upside complicating the Federal Reserve’s quest to slow down the pace of tightening. The US economy likely created 185K jobs in January of 2023, the least since December of 2020 and nearly matching the 183,000 monthly average between 2010 and 2019. Leisure and hospitality probably added the most jobs while 36K striking university workers in California returned to work further boosting the number. The unemployment rate is seen edging higher to 3.6% from near 50-year lows of 3.5%. Wages are expected to rise 0.3%, the same as in December, but the annual pay growth rate likely softened to 4.3%, the lowest since August of 2021. Still, the greenback remains down more than 10% from its September peak as the Federal Reserve delivered a smaller 25 basis point rate hike in a widely expected move, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the “disinflationary process has started.”DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

This week is likely to be somewhat weaker for equity markets around the world. Because the development in individual stock markets, distributed around the world, is almost in the double-digit percentage range. As such, price losses should be taken as an exhale for this week’s run. Regardless of our open running trading capabilities, I am always trying to identify further 4XSetUps. I have UKOIL at the top of my watch list. But I still don’t dare to formulate a new 4XSetUp trading capability. Because all open 4XSetUps trading capabilities are currently traded in profit. And I don’t want to formulate a 4XSetUps because I’m too greedy and/or can’t get enough of it.

However,
Today Brent Crude Regains Some Traction
Brent crude futures rose almost 1% to around $83 per barrel on Friday, recovering from an over three-week low of $81.3 hit in the previous session, as upbeat US economic data eased concerns about a looming US recession while lifting the outlook for demand. US job growth accelerated sharply in January, while ISM data showed pointed to a robust services sector, adding to evidence that the US economy remains resilient. On the supply side, OPEC’s crude production declined in January, as lower output from Saudi Arabia and Lybia outweighed gains from other producers in the cartel. Earlier this week, an OPEC+ committee recommended keeping crude production steady, citing uncertainty about the impact of China’s economic reopening and the latest sanctions on Russian supply.