2023/02/01 (161) Column

Bury
Bury The Fear Of Inflation!
And Why Shouldn’t We Survive A Recession?


Despite a decline in home-made inflation in our so-called West, due to the green energy policy, the inflation rate in my homeland Germany, in the Eurozone, in the USA, in our so-called and hopefully beloved West, remains at unbearable levels. This affects us all – the state, companies, citizens. No wonder surveys keep confirming people’s fears when it comes to their money. Sure, the concerns are understandable. And everything is self-caused! And no, not Putin, let alone the Chinese, is to blame for the inflation here in the so-called West! No, it was and/or ot is the sprawling fiscal policy in combination with a left-wing green energy and economic policy, under the guise of a liberal democracy! Do you remember the economy, under Donald J. Trump, through the end of 2019? I agree! That’s it…

At this point, let me remind you of an old stock market adage: “Fear and greed are bad advisors.” – And not only on US Wall Street, but also in Washington. So not only in the financial market but also in politics. Self-critical readers will nod in agreement, as they may have had exactly these (extreme) experiences over the past few years, not just observing markets and politics. But maybe also in your everyday work!? The fact that inflation continues to be by far our greatest concern in Germany has historical reasons. Nevertheless, it’s time to bury the “German Angst” – although many foreigners, including those from my foreign family, find it particularly difficult right now. And they won`t believe it! They can’t believe it! The so-called Germans and his fear is no longer the problem! That does not exist!? This can not be true?

Since the summer of 2022, inflation has been and/or will remain the biggest concern of my compatriots and German citizens here in Germany! And that with or without a German passport. Because almost half of all those surveyed (47%) currently rank rising prices among their top three personal concerns. This was shown by a recent study by the market and opinion research institute IPSOS, which was carried out in 29 countries: “What Worries the World”. In the previous month, even 50 percent of Germans had described inflation as one of their biggest concerns! But how can citizens face even high inflation with composure? First and foremost, I see confidence in the monetary policy course of the central bank and (despite the temporary extreme expansion of public finances) and the fiscal policy of our government. In addition, everyone should (wherever possible) develop their own “stability awareness”. And just learn to deal profitably with money! And that also in everyday life – independent of the financial market price action. However, I will hopefully inform you competently about this today, in this DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper Edition, also. And that even if we all unexpectedly find ourselves in a recession in 2023.It will be a difficult year 2023! No question? Let’s experience it together by not only reading my D2D, but rather also opening a new trading account with a broker of your choice, so that we can use the Internet (in the form  of a tablet & smartphone) to communicate with each other up to 24 hours a day communicate if we want to. And then also by making the best of the current price action (buy/sell or do nothing). And so overcoming our fear and greed, which should harden us into a market guy with a strong character, zs wallstreet veteran. To paraphrase the Japanese samurai scholar Yamamoto Tsunetomo, who once aptly said: “It is good to encounter difficulties in youth, for he who has never suffered has not fully hardened his character.”
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– My Last Thoughts Abot Market Price Actions

It will be a very busy week with central banks meetings in US, UK, and Euro Area and/or US non-farm payrolls report taking central stage. Also, investors will follow inflation and GDP growth rates for major European economies including Germany, France, and Italy. Finally, it will be worth following fresh PMI readings for the US, China, Canada, India, Australia, and South Korea.

In addition, there is also the strongest week in terms of quarterly reports, on the US Wall Street. It will be and is one of the most groundbreaking weeks of this year 2023! And that already in the fifth calendar week of 2023.

However, DOW Future long (as a conservative base investment), DAX Future long (as a German patriot, without overpriced technology companies from Silicon Valley), incl. EURUSD long (after the FED had already done most of its homework in 2022 – in contrast to the ECB, which still has to do it in 2023). And/Or also long TESLA shares – as an highly speculative admixture. If you go long, please only with a maximum of 5% of your portfolio with these four 4XSetUps. And that only from today’s perspective. It should be worth, more or less, until the end of 2023! Don`t you think so? More every day – today also.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Some Last News About Market Price Actions

Asian equity markets rose on Wednesday, tracking gains on Wall Street overnight as signs of cooling inflation in the US bolstered expectations of less aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening, boosting risk assets. The US central bank is widely expected to deliver a smaller quarter-point rate hike on Wednesday, while investors will be looking for guidance on the path of future interest rate rises. Investors also digested a raft of regional manufacturing PMI data which yielded mixed results for January, as China’s economic reopening vied with weakening global demand. Shares in Australia, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and China all advanced.

China Stocks Track Global Peers Higher
ANZ 50 Jumps to More than 10-Month Highs
Australian Shares Rise as Flight Centre Jumps
Sensex Trades Higher Ahead of Union Budget
Japanese Shares Mixed Ahead of Fed Decision
Hang Seng Jumps 1% at Close

China Stocks Track Global Peers HigherChina Stock Market
The Shanghai Composite rose 0.9% to around 3,285 while the Shenzhen Component jumped 1.31% to 12,158 on Wednesday, tracking a global equity rally as signs of cooling inflation in the US bolstered expectations of less aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening, boosting risk assets. Investors also reacted to a private survey showing Chinese manufacturing activity remained contractionary in January. Meanwhile, data released on Tuesday showed that China’s manufacturing and services sectors unexpectedly returned to growth in January as the country’s abrupt exit from zero-Covid policy boosted economic activities. High-growth new energy and technology stocks led the advance, with strong gains from BYD Company (6%), Contemporary Amperex (2.4%), China Northern Rare Earth (6.1%), iFLYTEK (5.9%), and TRS Information (8.3%).ANZ 50 Jumps To More Than 10-Month Highs
The ANZ 50 surged 123.21 points or 1.02% to end at 12,091 on Wednesday, hovering at over 10-month tops, boosted by a strong session in US stocks Tuesday after data showed labor cost growth in Q4 of 2022 was the smallest in a year, even in a tight jobs market. Meantime, optimism mounted the US Fed could moderate interest rate hikes again later today, with chair Powell maintaining further hikes on the table. Turning to China, factory activity shrank more slowly in January after Beijing scrapped tough COVID curbs last month, a private sector survey showed. Locally, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins announced his new cabinet lineup Tuesday, keeping some lawmakers in their previous roles while demoting or promoting others. Nearly all sectors contributed to the rise, with non-energy minerals, industrials, and financials being the best gainers for the day. Serko Lts surged 8.3%, followed by Mercury NZ Ltd. (3.9%), Fletcher Buildings (3.6%), Pacific Edge Ltd. (2%), and Auckland Intl. (1.4%).

Australian Shares Rise As Flight Centre Jumps
The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.33% to close at a nine-month high of 7,502 on Wednesday, helped by gains in mining stocks and a sharp rally in Flight Centre. Australian shares also tracked gains on Wall Street overnight as easing inflationary pressures in the US lifted market sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Iron ore, lithium and gold miners led the market higher, with strong gains from Rio Tinto (1.4%), South32 (2%), Allkem (1.1%), Lynas Rare Earth (3.3%) and Northern Star Resources (0.7%). Other index heavyweights also advanced, including CSL Ltd (1.2%), Telstra Group (1.7%), Goodman Group (1.2%), James Hardie Industries (4.3%) and Qantas Airways (1%). Meanwhile, Flight Centre surged 8.1% on news that it is raising A$180 million in a bid to acquire British travel business Scott Dunn for A$211 million.

Sensex Trades Higher Ahead Of Union Budget
BSE Sensex climbed 573.0 points or 1.0% to 60,122.9 in morning trade on Wednesday, up for the first session in three, ahead of the Union Budget, which will be closely watched by investors for government measures to aid the long-term growth of the economy, amid a global slowdown and as New Delhi takes the global stage with India’s presidency of G20 nations this year. Traders will also watch the budget for incentives that would attract more foreign investors. The index also tracked an upsurge on Wall Street overnight, amid hopes the Fed will slow the pace of rate hikes. Nearly all sectors contributed to the upturn, with financial services, private banks, realty, and healthcare among early gainers. ICCI Bank posted strong rises (3.0%), as did Tata Steel (2.3%), Divi’s Laboratories (2.0%), and Tata Consumer (1.8%). In contrast, most Adani Group stocks extended falls, amid fraud allegations from US-based Hindenburg Research last week and despite the group completing a share sale Tuesday.

Japanese Shares Mixed Ahead of Fed Decision
The Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.07% to close at 27,347 while the broader Topix Index shed 0.15% to 1,972 in mixed trade on Wednesday, with Japanese shares struggling for direction as caution dominated sentiment ahead of a highly-anticipated interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve. Mixed domestic corporate earnings also weighed on sentiment, as well as lingering uncertainties about new export restrictions in China that may affect Japan’s chip equipment sector. Japanese shares traded mixed on Wednesday, with gains from index heavyweights such as SoftBank Group (1.8%), Tokyo Electron (2.1%) and Nippon Yusen (3.3%), while losses were seen from Mitsubishi UFJ (-0.4%), Sony Group (-1%) and Fast Retailing (-0.6%). Elsewhere, Lasertec plunged 13.8% after missing earnings and revenue estimates in the latest quarter.

Hang Seng Jumps 1% at Close
Hong Kong’s equities climbed 229.85 points or 1.05% to finish at 22,072.18 on Wednesday, halting losses from the prior two sessions while attempting to return to last week’s 9-1/2 month peak, buoyed by a strong session on Wall Street Tuesday amid hopes that the US Fed will deliver a 25bps rate hike later today, the smallest size since the tightening cycle began in last March. Meantime, China’s President Xi Jinping said today Beijing will establish a mechanism for growing consumption so that consumers can buy with a stable income. Economic growth forecast upgrades from the IMF this week, alongside a private survey report showing pressures on China’s manufacturing eased in January, also encouraged investors to buy riskier assets. Technology, consumers, and property drove the gains, while the financial sector fell. Some top performers of the day were Wai Chun Group Hlds. (11.8%), GCL Tech Hlds. (10.2%), Genscript Biotech (6.1%), BYD Co (6.5%), Galaxy Ent. (3.5%), and Meituan (3.3%).

European Equity Markets Were Little Changed On Wednesday, 

European equity markets were little changed on Wednesday, as investors digested a batch of economic data and corporate news ahead of the much-anticipated policy decision by the Federal Reserve later in the day. US policymakers are seen delivering a smaller 25bps rate hike amid signs of cooling inflation, while investors will be looking for guidance on the path of future interest rate rises. On the data front, the Eurozone’s inflation rate slowed more then expected in January to an eight-month low of 8.5%, while the core index held at an all-time high of 5.2%, bolstering expectations that the ECB will maintain its hawkish rhetoric in the near term. On the corporate front, drugmaker Novo Nordisk posted strong 2023 sales growth expectations and Novartis predicted that core operating income would grow in a “mid single digit” percentage range in 2023. Among other stocks, BMW raised suggested retail prices for some models sold in China due to higher raw material and logistics costs globally.

Spain Stocks Outperform
Italian Shares Extend Gains
French Stocks End Cautiously

Spain Stocks Outperform, Led by Banks
The Ibex 35 rose by 0.71% to 9098 on Wednesday, recouping the previous 2-day losses and outperforming its regional peers, driven by gains in the banking sector. Shares of BBVA surged by 4.70% after the lender reported its largest profit in the history and raised shareholder remuneration, thanks to a strongperformance in Mexico. Other financials also registered significant advances, with Banco Santander and Banco Sabadell up by 1.42% each. Meanwhile, investors awaited the Fed monetary policy decision later in the day for clues on future rate path. The BoE and the ECB will follow with respective decisions tomorrow. On the data front, the manufacturing PMI for Spain increased further to 48.4 in January, beating market expectations of 48 and marking the slowest pace of contraction in factory activity since September 2022.

Italian Shares Extend Gains
The FTSE MIB index closed 0.4% higher at 26,700 on Wednesday, the highest in nearly one year, with support from financial stocks as investors digested a batch of economic data and corporate results ahead of the Fed decision after the closing bell. Inflation in Italy fell sharply in January, but domestic and Eurozone core readings came at record highs to underscore that price growth remains in an unsustainable trend. Also, domestic PMI data showed that Italy’s factory activity rebounded in January after seven months of contraction. Milan’s heavy-weight banking sector led the gains for a second session on the corporate front, carried by UniCredit’s strong results yesterday. To add, BPER Banca added more than 3% following the recommendation from UBS.

French Stocks End Cautiously
The CAC 40 index closed marginally lower at 7,077 on Wednesday, tracking a general cautious mood ahead of crucial monetary decisions from the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the BoE. Meanwhile, traders digested another batch of corporate earnings and a raft of economic data from Europe and the US. While there were signs of receding inflationary pressures in the eurozone and the US, the latest PMI reports indicated that manufacturing activity across major economies remains fragile. On the domestic front, factory activity in France returned to growth in January albeit not as strongly as initially forecast. Among single stocks, top gainers were Renault (+3.1%), Publicis Groupe (+2.8%), STMicroelectronics (+2.7%) and Teleperformance (+2.2%); while the main draggers were TotalEnergies (-1.8%), L’Oreal (-1.5%) and Unibail-Rodamco (-1.5%).

Equities in London dropped for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, with the blue-chip FTSE 100 closing around the 7,760 mark, as losses among healthcare and materials offset gains in real estate. The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.2% higher at 2,230 on Wednesday, extending this week’s rally to the highest in over two months with support from metal producers and tech shares. 

FTSE 100 Remains Under Pressure
Russian Stocks Close Higher
FTSE 100 Remains Under Pressure
All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision to be announced later today, with markets expecting the world’s most influential central bank to deliver a 25 bps hike. Domestically, the Bank of England will likely increase interest rates by 50 bps to 4.0% on Thursday to tackle double-digit inflation. AstraZeneca and giant miner Anglo American were among the biggest laggards on the index, down 2.9% and 2.3%, respectively. Vodafone also tumbled over 2% after reporting a slowdown in its group service revenue growth.

Russian Stocks Close Higher
Steelmakers Severstal and Mechel jumped by 4.2% and 3%, respectively, as expectations of higher demand for base metals from China continued to support exports for the sector. Tech companies also outperformed the broader index as investors await the release of Yandex’s corporate results. On the other hand, oil and gas producers pared early gains to close in the red as investors continued to Wall Street Turns Green After Fed Decision
The Dow finished marginally higher on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 added 1% and 2%, respectively, and pared earlier losses after the Fed Chair Powell’s news conference. Powell was more optimistic about the outlook for inflation, saying: “We can now say for the first time that the disinflationary process has started.”, which sent stocks higher. The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 25bps to 4.5%-4.75% at today’s meeting and brought the borrowing costs to their highest since 2007. On the corporate front, Snap dipped over 10% after reporting a poor outlook and a wider-than-expected loss, while Peloton surged 26% after its net loss narrowed year over year. Advanced Micro Devices advanced 12.6% on its upbeat earning reports.

DXY Hits Lowest Since April 2022
As EURUSD Edges Higher After Fed, ECB Eyed And/Or Gold Prices March Higher

The dollar index extended losses to below 101.2 on Wednesday, the lowest since April last year, after Fed Chair Powell said during the press conference that the disinflationary process has begun. The US central bank raised rates by only 25bps as expected, still bringing borrowing costs to their highest since 2007. Looking ahead, the Committee said more rate increases will be appropriate.

The euro extended gains to $1.09 on Wednesday, remaining close to levels not seen since April last year, benefitting from a softer dollar as the Fed continued to dial back the size of the interest rate increases as expected and appeared to adopt a more dovish language. At the same time, investors bet the ECB will maintain a hawkish rhetoric and deliver a 50bps rate hike tomorrow although attention will turn mainly to the central bank’s plans for the March meeting, with markets seeing another half-percent hike. On the data front, Eurozone inflation rate slowed more than expected to 8.5% in January, the lowest since last May, while the core rate held at an all-time high of 5.2%. Still, the data did not include inflation figures for Germany – the bloc’s biggest economy.

Gold prices edged higher to above $1940 an ounce on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve delivered a smaller 25bps hike as expected although comments from Fed Chair Powell during the regular press conference appeared more dovish, sending the dollar lower and pushing the bullion up. Traders now await monetary policy decisions from both the BoE and the ECB due tomorrow, with the latter set to maintain a hawkish stance.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

We are heading into one of the most important weeks of the quarter, of this year 2023, with a flurry of important economic data including big ecomony data from the united states – even the us jobs data, on friday. The FED meeting on Wednesday will be followed by decisions at the Bank of England and the ECB over the course of the week. At the same time, a wave of earnings news is sweeping Wall Street, with the focus on the tech sector. AMD reports Tuesday night, followed by Meta on Wednesday night and Apple, Amazon and Google on Thursday night. Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Exxon, Ford, GM, McDonald’s, Pfizer and Starbucks are also reporting results throughout the week. It’s hardly surprising that we’re seeing some profit-taking after the massive rally. The Nasdaq is up 11% year to date with the Russell 2000 up over 8%.

However,
the first experiences in 2023 are far too short to make presumably reliable predictions, and/or the periods of professional forecasts are also too different – like at every start of any year. Nevertheless, I have now dared to do it – at the end of January 2023 and/or at the beginning of February 2023:

DOW Future long
(as a conservative base investment)

DAX Future long
(as a German patriot, without overpriced
technology companies from Silicon Valley)

incl. EURUSD long
(after the FED had already done most of its
homework in 2022 – in contrast to the ECB,
which still has to do it in 2023).

and/or long TESLA shares
– as a highly speculative admixture.

If you go long a maximum of 5% of your portfolio withthese four 4XSetUps, it sgould be wirth (from today’s perspective), more or less, until the end of 2023! Don`t you think so, also?

Of course I don’t know how the future, let alone how the price action will develop in this year 2023 either. Nevertheless, it is not important, as most market guys always assume, to anticipate the future correctly, but rather to position oneself accordingly for certain upcoming scenarios – and/or much more in doing so all imaginable (mathematically and or but also semantically to include justifiable) scenarios. And that’s what I’ve just done with our four long 4XSetUps trading capavilities. Because the inflation, the war, let alone the energy crisis, of 2022 has been a disastrous year for the economy, markets and consumers. Let’s not fool ourselves, please. And in 2023 a recession is may be to come. However, it is unclear whether it will be a hard landing or just a mild downturn. Therefore always operate with stop-lost marks to secure losses. And/Or also target price marks – even if there may be other possible profits.

All experts agree that 2022 was one thing in particular: unprecedented. For the first time in more than half a century, both stocks and bonds brought losses to investors, while consumers in Europe and Germany suffered from double-digit inflation rates in some cases. Will 2023 bring improvement? Or is the great economic collapse coming? What I do not know! But I will, also this year, every trading day, to the best of my knowledge and belief, inform you so competently that you can hardly wait to read my, our, your, next DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper again tomorrow.

Due to the numerous regular meetings of the central banks, and or at the same time the natural reporting of the quarterly figures on Wall Street, don’t forget to include the commodity price action also in your considerations, my dear, loyal readers.

Because I’ve been playing with the idea of formulating a new 4XSetUps trading capability in the UKOIL for days. Where we had already realized three profitable 4XSetUps and/or three lossy 4XsetIps last year 2022. But I currently lack the courage, and or the conviction! However, anyone who is courageous and/or has a conviction regarding the oil price action should contact me this week via email Devise2Day@gmail.com…