2023/01/29 (158) Column

Between bulls and bears,
my sheep


For me, writing a column means sharing my thoughts with you, without hot concrete opportunities – even so called 4XSetUps Trading Capabilities – for action (buy/sell or nothing to do). I always save that action for the Technical Analysis 4XSetUps. In the headline of each of my columns, I try to build the topic I am trying to formulate into one sentence. And that despite the fact that the unchanged problem that we have to deal with together every trading day is an oversupply of analyses, opinions and forecasts! That`s why you`re reading my column every day? Why are yoz reading my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper daily?

Helping people to help themselves – that’s where I see my benefit for you!
Especially for all account holders of my 9 CFD Online Brokers who support me financially, so that I can offer you, yes you, yes specially you, the DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper for free?

And why free, you might be asking yourself!?
Because we both – my 9 CFD Online Brokers and/or my humble person – understand our common DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper as an affiliate in the truest sense of the word – to build trust in us. To build trust in the whole derivate financial market sector! So that sooner or later it will be a matter of course for you to open a new trading account with one of the 9 CFD Online Brokers in order to get much more concrete information from my humble person on a daily basis. To make even better trading decisions! And that with the help of a tablet and or also smartphones? Where, thanks to the Internet, we can then connect with each other and communicate up to 24 hours a day, Monday to Friday, if we want to!?

Because whether you want me or not. You will unknowingly let your future trading decisions be influenced by another analyst, info broker, banker, TV commentator, author! Then why not from me? From my 9 cfd online brokers? Sure, there are days and weeks without a clear trend. Longer-term trends are thus difficult to foresee. We are once again in such a phase between bulls and bears. Certainly not uncommon if you look through international glasses. And that’s hip, my sheep. Decide – for my sake, also against me. And stay bearish on me! I can live with it! I don’t imagine that I want to be able to convince every fellow human being. And I’m happy for you, if you’ve read this column, to have at least learned something falsified from my modest person. And then I would like to leave you alone from now on, valued trader and/or investor. And I would like to remind you of the basic suggestions and advice that I have been propagating for a long time: Before you specify an investment strategy, examine yourself. Because you should know yourself, your goals (also in terms of time) and your willingness to take risks – that’s it the individual “investor philosophy”.

By the way, let me explain something else also:
I would separate CFD trading accounts! Hence my free DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper. With the non-binding offer to open a new trading account with a CFD Online Broker of your choice in order to get in personal contact with my modest person even more concretely – with the help of the Internet, in the form of a tablet & smartphone. Because in the form of a CFD trading account you should operate differently than with long-term stock positions, regardless of the costs, let alone heavy price losses (without a stop loss).

Finally, it is important to keep an overview. Hence my holistic, detailed, clear approach, with five different 4XSetUps, all of which only pursue one goal! What should I trade today? Therefore, become a “carer” who spends as much time as possible reading, analyzing and evaluating market price actions – like a geriatric nurse with an elderly person. So that over time, as if by magic, with God’s help, instinctively, emotionally and rationally, you develop yourselve into a “self-decider”, whether with or without my humble person…
DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– My Last Thoughts Abot Market Price Actions

It will be a very busy week with central banks meetings in US, UK, and Euro Area and/or US non-farm payrolls report taking central stage. Also, investors will follow inflation and GDP growth rates for major European economies including Germany, France, and Italy. Finally, it will be worth following fresh PMI readings for the US, China, Canada, India, Australia, and South Korea.

In addition, there is also the strongest week in terms of quarterly reports, on the US Wall Street. It will be and is one of the most groundbreaking weeks of this year 2023! And that already in the fifth calendar week of 2023.

However, DOW Future long (as a conservative base investment), DAXFuture long (as a German patriot, without overpriced technology companies from Silicon Valley), incl. EURUSD long (after the FED had already done most of its homework in 2022 – in contrast to the ECB, which still has to do it in 2023). And/Or also long TESLA shares – as an highly speculative admixture. If you go long, please only with a maximum of 5% of your portfolio with these four 4XSetUps. And that only from today’s perspective. It should be worth, more or less, until the end of 2023! Don`t you think so? More every day – today also.
DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Some Last News About Market Price Actions

Australian Dollar Hovers Near 8-Month High
As Gold Edges Down More And/Or Less From 9-Month High

The Australian dollar traded around $0.71, hovering near its highest levels in almost eight months as surging inflation in the country bolstered bets for further central bank policy tightening and as China’s reopening from Covid curbs lifted the global economic outlook. Australia’s annual inflation jumped 7.8% in the December quarter, the biggest increase since 1990 and above market forecasts of 7.5%. The strong reading was more than twice the pace of wage growth and cemented expectations for a 25 basis-points interest rate hike in February. Some analysts previously suggested that the RBA might pause its hawkish campaign after it raised the cash rate by an aggregate of 300 basis points in eight consecutive meetings in 2022, bringing borrowing costs to a 10-year high of 3.1%.

Spot gold prices erased gains from the session and dropped to the $1,920 per ounce mark, extending the retreat from the nine-month high of $1,945 touched on January 25th as investors further digested the latest economic data for hints on whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance. The PCE core price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose firmly from the prior month in December. In the meantime, the US GDP growth surpassed expectations in the fourth quarter and weekly unemployment claims fell to a nine-month low, adding tightening leeway for the US central bank. The Fed is expected to scale back the pace of its rate hikes to 25bps next week from 50bps in December, while both the ECB and the BoE are set to stick with a 50bps increase. Gold is highly sensitive to the rates outlook as higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and vice versa.

Stocks in Hong Kong Down Slightly
Japanese Shares Track Wall Street Higher
New Zealand Shares Rise 0.5% Weekly
Singapore Shares Hover at Near 10-Month Top
Indian Shares Plummet Amid Adani Scandle
Hang Seng Ends Week on Upbeat Note

Stocks in Hong Kong Down Slightly
The Hang Seng fell 62 points or 0.28% to 22,505 on Friday morning deals, amid profit-taking after the index closed at its highest level in over 11 months Thursday, the first trading day of a year of the rabbit. Traders continued to follow news that Japan and the Netherlands were poised to join the US in limiting China’s access to advanced semiconductor machinery.

Japanese Shares Track Wall Street Higher
The Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.07% to close at 27,382 while the broader Topix Index added 0.22% to 1,983 on Friday, recovering losses from the previous session and taking cues from a strong lead on Wall Street, as better-than-expected fourth quarter US GDP numbers raised hopes of a soft landing in the world’s largest economy. Investors also digested data showing Tokyo inflation exceeded expectations in January, adding pressure on the Bank of Japan to adjust its policy of ultra-low interest rate further.

New Zealand Shares Rise 0.5% Weekly
The ANZ 50 edged up 12.59 points or 0.1% to finish at 12,036.05 on Friday, gaining for the third straight session and remaining at 9-1/2-month peaks after Wall Street closed higher on Thursday as traders welcomed reports about a resilient US economy that raised hopes for a soft landing despite the Fed’s aggressive tightening path. The index for the week grew 0.5%, the fourth consecutive rise, amid building optimism that the country’s new administration under Prime Minister Chris Hipkins will be able to mitigate surging inflation.

Singapore Shares Hover at Near 10-Month Top
The STI Index added 15 points or 0.46% higher to 3,393 around midday on Friday, trading at its highest level in nearly 10 months and heading for a 3% jump weekly which would be the second straight gain, buoyed by a positive lead from Wall Street overnight after data showing a resilient US economy boosted sentiment ahead of next week’s Fed policy meetings. A boost to global growth from China’s swift reopening continued to feed risk appetite for riskier assets, amid hopes that Beijing will roll out more fiscal and monetary measures to help the recovery of the economy.

Indian Shares Plummet Amid Adani Scandle
The BSE Sensex sank as much as 1,230 points before closing 830 points down at a three-month low of 59,373 on Friday, booking its worst session in over one month and extending the slide from Wednesday as the fallout for Adani Group shares triggered a broad-based sell-off for Indian equities. Short-selling-focused firm Hindenburg Research published on Wednesday a report detailing accounting fraud and soaring debt levels for companies in the Adani Group conglomerate, driving its shares to plummet and erasing over $50 billion in value. Banks led the losses within the Sensex, pressured by their exposure to Adani Group’s corporate bonds with the State Bank of India sliding over 5%, while ICICI Bank and IndusInd Bank sank 4.5% and 3.3%, respectively, even though brokerages said lender exposure was within manageable limits. Looking forward, investors await the publication of the Union Budget next week. Losses were led by State Bank of India (-5.18%), ICICI Bank (-4.43%) and Indusind Bank Ltd (-3.33%).

Hang Seng Ends Week on Upbeat Note
Equities in Hong Kong rose 122.12 points or 0.54% to finish at over 11-month peaks of 22,688.90 on Friday after trading lower in the morning session, ahead of the reopening of China markets Monday after a week-long Lunar New Year holiday. The Hang Seng posted a 2.7% jump weekly, the fourth straight gain, boosted by growing hopes that the US Fed will slow its tightening path in the coming months amid plenty of risks following faster-than-expected Q4 GDP figures. However, news that Japan and the Netherlands were poised to join the US in limiting China’s access to advanced semiconductor machinery tempered the rise, while investors also focused on the selloff in India’s Adani Group following a short seller’s report from US Hindenburg Research.

European Equity Markets
Closed Slightly Higher On Friday

European equity markets closed slightly higher on Friday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 up 0.2% and the German DAX rising a meager 0.1% as investors continued to follow corporate earnings and adopt a more cautious approach ahead of an important week for monetary policy. The FOMC decision is due next Wednesday and the Fed is expected to scale back rate hikes to 25bps from 50 bps in December while both the BoE and the ECB will provide an update on Thursday and are set to stick with a 50bps increase. In corporate headlines, LVMH reported a 9% rise in sales in the fourth quarter while fashion retailer H&M reported a much weaker-than-expected operating profit. Meanwhile, steelmaker SSAB proposed to raise dividends. On the week, the DAX went up 0.6% and the STOXX 600 added 0.8%.

Italian Shares Outperform on Friday
French Stocks Flat at Near 1-Year High
Spain Stocks Close the Week at Over 1-Year Highs

Italian Shares Outperform on Friday
The FTSE MIB index closed a choppy session 0.8% higher at 26,436 on Friday, outperforming other European bourses to notch a 2.6% jump on the week and stretch its rally to the highest in over 11 months with support from tech shares, energy producers, and banks. On the data front, US PCE price indices added to recent evidence that inflation slowed, while personal spending contracted in December, backing hopes of a lower terminal rate by the Fed. Meanwhile, STMicroelectronics extended yesterday’s 8% surge with a 2.3% jump in the session, continuing to benefit from its guidance upgrade despite the negative results for competitor Intel. At the same time, heavy-weighing banks erased early losses to close firmly in the green ahead of corporate reports for major lenders to be released next week.

French Stocks Flat at Near 1-Year High
The CAC 40 index closed virtually unchanged at a near one-year high of 7,097 on Friday, with investors digesting a new batch of corporate earnings and fresh economic data from both the US and Europe. Still, the focus turns to the highly-anticipated monetary policy decisions from the Fed, the ECB and the BoE scheduled for next week. On the corporate front, Societe Generale outperformed, rising 4.5%, followed by Saint Gobain (+2.9%), Alstom (+2.8%) and STMicroelectronics (+2.4%). Shares of LVMH ended almost flat after the company’s quarterly results showed flat margins and a 9% rise in sales in the fourth quarter. On the other hand, Airbus slumped 3.6%, after Jefferies downgraded the share from “buy” to “keep” and reduced its price target from 135 to 130 euros. The CAC 40 added about 1.4% this week.

Spain Stocks Close the Week at Over 1-Year Highs
The Ibex 35 rose by 0.2% to 9060 on Friday, advancing for the 3rd session and consolidating at levels last seen in November 2021, as investors digested fresh economic data and corporate results from the United States and braced for important monetary policy updates next week. The reports showed US core PCE inflation slowed to a 14-month low and personal spending contracted for a second month in December, backing bets of a slower 25bps rate hike by the Fed at the upcoming meeting. Domestically, the Spanish economy grew by 0.2% in Q4 and beat the forecasts. The biggest gains came from Banco Sabadell (5.2%) after the body released the positive report yesterday and received the reevaluation of its shares target price by JPMorgan analysts to 1.40 euros today. Laboratorios Farma and Acerinox also registered significant wins, up 3.3% and 2.6%, respectively. Solaria Energia Y was the biggest laggard (-3.5%). The index increased by around 1.6% over the week.

FTSE 100 Ends Week Flat
And/Or Russian Shares Close Week Higher

Equities in London were barely flat on Friday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 closing around 7,770 points, as gains among real estate and energy offset losses in the heavyweight materials sector.

The ruble-based MOEX Russia index extended early gains to close 1% higher at 2,198 on Friday, halting three straight sessions of losses to also notch a 1% gain in the session with support from energy producers and metallurgists.

FTSE 100 Ends Week Flat
Russian Shares Close Week Higher

FTSE 100 Ends Week Flat
It was a quiet day on the economic front in the UK, with investors focused on fresh US inflation data that showed that the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the US core personal consumption expenditures price index, slowed to an over one-year low of 4.4%. Regarding individual share price movement, J Sainsbury rallied more than 5% after convenience store retailer Bestway Group said it had purchased or agreed to buy a 3.45% stake in the supermarket giant. On the flip side, Rolls-Royce Holdings and Antofagasta were among the biggest losers, down roughly 3% and 2%. The FTSE 100 stuck in a tight range this week, ending virtually unchanged.

Russian Shares Close Week Higher
Oil producers rebounded from early-session losses and rallied in afternoon trade, triggered by a 6% jump for Surgut following news that it its board intends to “expand the company’s participation with other organizations”. Gazprom and Rosneft followed with gains of 1% and 0.7%, respectively. Still, the sector remains more than 2% down year-to-date as restrictions from the West hamper exports. The G7 is expected to further tighten measures against Russian energy exports with a $100/barrel price cap on export services of diesel and a $45/barrel cap on discounted oil products. In the meantime, steel producers carried gains for metallurgists, offsetting the decline for gold miners.

Wall Street Ends Week On Positive Note

The Dow finished marginally higher on Friday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 were up 0.2% and 0.9% respectively, as investors weighed a batch of economic data ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The US Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, increased by 4.4% in December and marked its smallest annual rise since October 2021, paving way for smaller Fed hikes. Meantime, US personal spending fell by 0.2% for the second consecutive month in December, due to higher borrowing costs. On the corporate side, American Express soared 10.5% and Visa gained almost 3%, while Intel and Silvergate Capital plunged 6.4% and 3.7%, respectively. Meantime, Tesla soared 11% and marked 31% weekly gain on its firm quarterly reports. For the week, the Dow added 1.6% and the S&P 500 was up almost by 2% while Nasdaq 100 gained 3.3%. Next week, investors await earning results for Meta on Wednesday, and Apple, Google, and Amazon on Thursday.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right
We are heading into one of the most important weeks of the quarter, of this year 2023, with a flurry of important economic data including big ecomony data from the united states – even the us jobs data, on friday. The FED meeting on Wednesday will be followed by decisions at the Bank of England and the ECB over the course of the week. At the same time, a wave of earnings news is sweeping Wall Street, with the focus on the tech sector. AMD reports Tuesday night, followed by Meta on Wednesday night and Apple, Amazon and Google on Thursday night. Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Exxon, Ford, GM, McDonald’s, Pfizer and Starbucks are also reporting results throughout the week. It’s hardly surprising that we’re seeing some profit-taking after the massive rally. The Nasdaq is up 11% year to date with the Russell 2000 up over 8%.

However,
the first experiences in 2023 are far too short to make presumably reliable predictions, and/or the periods of professional forecasts are also too different – like at every start of any year. Nevertheless, I have now dared to do it – at the end of January 2023 and/or at the beginning of February 2023:

DOW Future long
(as a conservative base investment)

DAX Future long
(as a German patriot, without overpriced
technology companies from Silicon Valley)

incl. EURUSD long
(after the FED had already done most of its
homework in 2022 – in contrast to the ECB,
which still has to do it in 2023).

and/or long TESLA shares
– as a highly speculative admixture.

If you go long a maximum of 5% of your portfolio withthese four 4XSetUps, it sgould be wirth (from today’s perspective), more or less, until the end of 2023! Don`t you think so, also?

Of course I don’t know how the future, let alone how the price action will develop in this year 2023 either. Nevertheless, it is not important, as most market guys always assume, to anticipate the future correctly, but rather to position oneself accordingly for certain upcoming scenarios – and/or much more in doing so all imaginable (mathematically and or but also semantically to include justifiable) scenarios. And that’s what I’ve just done with our four long 4XSetUps trading capavilities. Because the inflation, the war, let alone the energy crisis, of 2022 has been a disastrous year for the economy, markets and consumers. Let’s not fool ourselves, please. And in 2023 a recession is may be to come. However, it is unclear whether it will be a hard landing or just a mild downturn. Therefore always operate with stop-lost marks to secure losses. And/Or also target price marks – even if there may be other possible profits.

All experts agree that 2022 was one thing in particular: unprecedented. For the first time in more than half a century, both stocks and bonds brought losses to investors, while consumers in Europe and Germany suffered from double-digit inflation rates in some cases. Will 2023 bring improvement? Or is the great economic collapse coming? What I do not know! But I will, also this year, every trading day, to the best of my knowledge and belief, inform you so competently that you can hardly wait to read my, our, your, next DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper again tomorrow.

Due to the numerous regular meetings of the central banks, and or at the same time the natural reporting of the quarterly figures on Wall Street, don’t forget to include the commodity price action also in your considerations, my dear, loyal readers.

Because I’ve been playing with the idea of formulating a new 4XSetUps trading capability in the UKOIL for days. Where we had already realized three profitable 4XSetUps and/or three lossy 4XsetIps last year 2022. But I currently lack the courage, and or the conviction! However, anyone who is courageous and/or has a conviction regarding the oil price action should contact me this week via email Devise2Day@gmail.com…