2023/03/28 (200) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!

That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Putin`s war: “The most perfidious deception of this empire” – will Russia’s reserves soon be exhausted?

Ukraine has again demanded a complete withdrawal of troops from the country from Russia. “Russia must withdraw from every square meter of Ukrainian territory,” said Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba during an online round of talks on the Ukraine war at the second US-hosted democracy summit. “There should be no misunderstanding what the word deduction means.” In the war, Ukraine is defending “the entire democratic world,” Kuleba said. “No other country wants peace more than Ukraine. But peace at any price is an illusion. For peace to be lasting, it must be just.” China has presented a peace plan that includes a ceasefire. Ukraine and its western allies have denied it. They argue a ceasefire without a Russian troop withdrawal could help Russian President Vladimir Putin secure territorial gains and better deploy his country’s armed forces.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the virtual meeting on the Ukraine war that Putin could end the war immediately. All he has to do is withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine. The round of talks, which were originally supposed to be attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, were part of a democracy summit hosted by the United States and several partner countries. The “Summit for Democracy 2023”, which runs until Thursday, deals with challenges for democracies worldwide and wants to form a front against autocratically governed countries like Russia and China.
The heads of state and government from around 120 countries, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), have been invited to the summit, which is being held together with Costa Rica, the Netherlands, South Korea and Zambia and is being organized largely online. US President Joe Biden held the first such democracy summit in December 2021.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Dow sluggish – falls on Nasdaq

Investors held back on Tuesday before important economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial was up 0.12 percent in early trading at 32,470.11 points. On the other hand, there were price losses on the technology-heavy Nasdaq stock exchange. Above all, the data on consumer spending and price developments in February are likely to move into focus over the course of the week. They will be published on Friday. The market-wide S&P 500 fell 0.15 percent on Tuesday to 3971.62 points. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.72 percent to 12,581.41 points. Index heavyweights such as Alphabet , AMD , Tesla and Nvidia had a negative impact here with their share price losses.

According to market experts, given the recent turbulence in the banking sector, it is now apparent that the central banks are moving away from their “whatever-it-takes” policy in order to combat inflation. Although interest rate cuts are not yet to be expected this year, the markets are likely to increasingly price in an interest rate pause by the US Federal Reserve, it said. Among the individual stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial, Walgreens shares were clearly at the top with a plus of 3.3 percent. The drugstore and pharmacy chain beat analysts’ expectations with earnings per share in the second fiscal quarter.Forex
Sterling Appreciates on Bailey’s Hawkish Remarks

10Y Government Bind Yields
China 10-Year Government Bond Yield Down to 4-Month Low

Commodties
Brent Crude Hovers Around $79

Stock Markets
China Stocks Ease on Profit-Taking
European Stocks End Flat After Choppy Session

Sterling Appreciates on Bailey’s Hawkish Remarks
Sterling rose back to $1.23, not far from a seven-week high of $1.234 touched on March 23rd, after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Monday that further monetary tightening would be required if signs of persistent inflationary pressure became evident. He also said there were “big strains” in the global banking sector, but added that banks in Britain were resilient and able to support the economy. Last week, the UK central bank raised its key bank rate by an 11th consecutive time to 4.25% and left the door open for more rate hikes should inflation persist. Recent data had shown Britain’s inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 10.4% in February, well above the bank’s target of 2%. In the US, the Federal Reserve expects to deliver one more quarter-point rate hike this year, while markets have priced in a near 90% chance of the Fed’s standing pat on interest rates in May and anticipate a rate cut in July.

China 10-Year Government Bond Yield Down to 4-Month Low
The yield on China’s 10-year government bond dropped to 2.85% at the end of March, the lowest in four months, and tracking a general retreat in global bond yields amid concerns about the banking sector’s health. At the same time, traders continued to digest a gloomy economic outlook following the country’s reopening. Industrial profits in China slumped 22.9% in the first two months of the year, as market demand hadn’t entirely recovered despite the rebound in industrial output. Meanwhile, Han Wenxiu, deputy head of the party’s office for financial and economic affairs, said recently, “the foundation of China’s economic recovery is not yet solid enough”. On the policy front, the People’s Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 25bps in March, the first such cut since December in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

Brent Crude Hovers Around $79
Brent crude futures held steady at around $79 per barrel on Tuesday as investors continued to balance the demand-supply outlook. OPEC’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia said the oil cartel should keep supplies steady for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently clouded by the turmoil in the banking sector. At the same time, sanctions on Russia created uncertainty about supply. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country should increase exports to so-called “friendly” countries, noting that supplies to India jumped to levels not seen in over two decades.

China Stocks Ease on Profit-Taking
The Shanghai Composite fell 0.19% to close at 3,245, while the Shenzhen Component dropped 0.72% to 11,564 on Tuesday, dragged by a wave of profit-taking in high-flying technology stocks after similar moves on Wall Street overnight. Mainland stocks were kept from further losses by easing concerns about the financial turmoil. Investors welcomed news about First Citizens BankShares’ agreement to buy significant holdings of Silicon Valley Bank. At the same time, CNBC reported that outflows from small institutions to lending giants have slowed.

European Stocks End Flat After Choppy Session
European equity markets closed little changed a volatile session Tuesday, with the Stoxx 600 finishing below 445 after a 1% gain in the previous session and the German DAX up 0.1% to 15,142. The Stoxx bank index recovered from losses earlier in the day and added 0.6%, with Credit Suisse and UBS up 0.7% and 1.7%, respectively. On the other hand, Deutsche Bank went down more than 1% after reports that French authorities searched offices of several large banks, including Société Générale, BNP Paribas and HSBC on the suspicion of money laundering and fiscal fraud. Meanwhile, the real estate sector was under heavy pressure, down 2.7%. Yesterday, Citigroup warned that European real estate stock prices could fall 50% as the sector faces higher debt-servicing costs and a slump in property valuation. On the other hand, the energy sector gained almost 2% and miners added 1.5%.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

First Citizens BancShares Inc. has agreed to buy Silicon Valley Bank, which was seized by regulators after a run on the lender. The Raleigh, North Carolina-based bank entered into a purchase and acquisition agreement for all of SVB’s deposits and loans, according to a statement from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The deal involves the purchase of approximately $72 billion of SVB assets at a $16.5 billion discount. Approximately $90 billion in securities and other assets remains in receivership and will be sold by the FDIC, while the agency also receives $500 million in stock appreciation rights in First Citizens. The estimated cost of failure to the Deposit Insurance Fund is approximately $20 billion, with the exact size to be determined only after the administration is completed, the statement said. “This was a remarkable transaction in partnership with the FDIC that was designed to restore confidence in the banking system,” First Citizens chief executive officer Frank Holding Jr. said in a statement.

The another big story, what drives the proce action, was, if o`m nit wring, that the troubled Credit Suisse is swallowed up by its domestic rival UBS. The deal will be completed through a 22.5:1 share swap. According to the information, UBS will pay three billion francs for the takeover of Credit Suisse. The purchase price is thus well below CS’s market value of CHF 7.4 billion before the negotiations. It was therefore no great surprise that the share price plummeted by a good 50 percent at the beginning of the week after the announcement of the bank wedding. In order to reduce potential risks for UBS from the takeover of loss-making assets, the Swiss government has granted the major bank a guarantee of CHF 9 billion. “This acquisition is attractive for UBS shareholders, but it is clear – as far as Credit Suisse is concerned, this is an emergency rescue,” said UBS chairman Colm Kelleher. The unrest in the banking market is meanwhile also gripping our German industry leader. Chancellor Scholz tries to appease. Deutsche Bank is newly organized and a very profitable bank. France’s head of state Macron blames speculators for the downturn on the stock exchanges. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed his confidence in the European banking system and in Deutsche Bank. “There is no reason to worry about anything,” he said at the end of the EU summit in Brussels, alluding to the institute’s share price, which collapsed at times. “Deutsche Bank has fundamentally modernized and reorganized its business model and is a very profitable bank.” French President Emmanuel Macron blamed “speculators” for the recent slide in bank values on the stock exchanges. The European banking system is stable and robust, said the SPD politician.

In retrospect, a storm in a teacup – like the financial crisis of 2008 and/or the price action during the coronavirus outbreak in 2020. Sure, looking back, you’re always smarter than before. That`s why, the panic should be over for the time being in the financial market. That’s it for now.

Regardless, let`s take a look at our currently open 4XSetUps,
after we closed our short NASDAQ:NDX 4XSetUp with a lost of -4.80%, on wednesday last week!

                 TradingView Symbol since entry target stop
short        NASDAQ:NDX 2023/03/06 12290 11152 12880

Our other long 4XSetUps are in the money yet, so in the direction we expected.
Nevertheless, the process action is currently more volatile than ever. Because the news situation is a tsunami – if you let the sum of money what is at stake melting in your mouth.

                 TradingView Symbol since entry target stop
long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30
short        TVC:UKOIL 2023/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945 34420 22875
long          CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434 35228 31148
long          NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81 262.47 166.71

Due to the current situation just described and briefly commented on the price action, I will formulate a few new 4XSetUps, this week – every day. Because I think the panic is out of the price action! And that´s why is this not a buy signal – admittedly, not an issue. But at least an indicator that the shares in New York are not going down any further and/or in Chicago DXY and/or the US Yield Curve higher! Or?

However, for today formulated a new old long long 4XSetUps for the DAX Future:

                 TradingView Symbol since entry target stop
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299 17675 12586