2023/03/21 (195) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

XI in Moscow: China and Russia close ranks

China and Russia have agreed to closer strategic cooperation.
Relations between the two states have reached the highest level in history and are an example of a true comprehensive partnership, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in the Kremlin on Tuesday. Referring to the war in Ukraine, Xi stressed that his country is committed to resolving conflicts through dialogue. A peace initiative presented by Beijing is actively striving to resume talks.

Putin accused the West of not seriously considering China’s proposal presented in February.
This could be the basis for a peaceful settlement if the West were up for it, he said. The US rejected the vague initiative, saying it would confirm past Russian land grabs and give Moscow time to rearm, deploy and plan a new offensive.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

We are seeing global stabilization in financial markets, with a continuation of Wall Street’s recovery accompanied by a rise in US Treasury yields.
Tech and banks top the winners’ lists ahead of the start of trading. As for First Republic Bank, under the leadership of J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon to initiate a rescue. If the $30 billion in deposits brought in by a group of big banks are converted into shares, it would mean a massive dilution of the current shareholder base. Bloomberg also reports that the White House is considering whether the FDIC’s deposit insurance, in cooperation with the Treasury Department, could increase insurance on customer deposits without congressional approval.

Yesterday, i wrote at this place, that the so called regional bank crises in the usa is nothing more than another bear market rally that should be sold. For a sustainable rally, inflation must fall below 3.5% and earnings growth pick up, while the banking crisis is resolved. And the day before, that maybe I lost my nerve writing a short NDX 4XSetUp? We will experience it! In hindsight we are all always wiser – and know more. That´s it! I`m nit perfect – but 100% true, my readers. I would never write avout something, about which i think differently, let alone talk to other financial market participants! So keep your nerves, also!
The market price action is volatile and/or tomorrow the FED will be on the ball – talk in town – with 25 bps rate raise…Forex
Dollar Holds Decline as Fed Decision Looms

Commodities
Gold Moves Away from 1-Year High

Stock Markets
MOEX Closes at 6-Month High
European Stocks Rise for 2nd Day
FTSE 100 Books Best Session Since November

Dollar Holds Decline as Fed Decision Looms
The dollar index held below 103.5 on Wednesday, close to its lowest levels in five weeks, amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve would adopt a more cautious policy approach on interest rates later in the day. The central bank is projected to deliver a more moderate 25 basis point rate hike, with some analysts betting on a pause. Such expectations came on the heels of a global banking crisis that prompted regulators and major lenders to help stabilize markets. In the span of 2 weeks, tech startup-focused Silicon Valley Bank and New York Signature Bank collapsed, First Republic Bank received a lifeline from large US banks, and Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS.

Gold Moves Away from 1-Year High
Gold retreated for a second day to $1,970 an ounce on Tuesday, from the one-year high of $2,009 touched earlier in the week as investors began to shift their focus from the banking crisis to the next Fed’s action. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the feds funds rate by 25 bps at the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting on Wednesday, while prior to the financial turmoil, markets were betting on a larger 50 bps hike. Gold found support recently from a global banking crisis that started with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the US, then followed by the forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS in Europe. This prompted regulators and major banks to step in and help stabilize markets. The Fed also offered daily currency swaps to BoC, BoE, BoJ, ECB, and SNB in a bid to boost dollar liquidity.

MOEX Closes at 6-Month High
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed marginally higher at 2,398 on Tuesday, holding the sharp gains from the prior two sessions at levels last seen in September 2022 as advances for energy producers and utility distributors offset losses for miners. Natural gas producers traded mixed with Novatek shares jumping 2% while Gazprom dropped 1.8% to correct from yesterday’s near 7% surge, as investors continued to monitor talks between Russian and Chinese leaders Putin and Xi Jinping in Moscow for potential developments on another gas pipeline between both countries. In the meantime, oil producers were also mixed on the Kremlin’s announcement that it will hold March’s current 500,000 bpd output cut until June in response to the EU and G7’s oil embargo.

FTSE 100 Books Best Session Since November
The FTSE 100 closed 1.8% higher at 7,540, booking its strongest session since November 2022 as concerns regarding the health and stability of banks momentarily waned, supporting financial stocks traded in the City of London. On Sunday, the Swiss government engineered a forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS in response to client outflows for the former, while US Treasury Sectretaty signaled that Washington stands by supporting banks’ deposits. Authorities’ disposition to aid lenders lifted shares for the sector worldwide, with Barclays and NatWest both adding more than 5.3% while Lloyds jumped 4.5%.

European Stocks Rise for 2nd Day
European equity markets extended gains for a second session on Tuesday, amid easing concerns about the global banking crisis and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more cautious policy approach. The benchmark Stoxx 600 rose 1.4%, with financial stocks up 4.5% and banks adding 3.8%. UBS Group AG rose more than 11% even after S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service lowered its credit outlook. Other banks also posted strong gains, including Commerzbank (+8%), UniCredit (8%), Banco Sabadell (7%), Deutsche Bank (+6%), Natwest (+6%) and Barclays (+5%). Carmakers advanced more than 2% after data showed auto sales rose for a 7th straight month. On Sunday, the Swiss government engineered a forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS in response to client outflows and a dramatic selloff in the target company’s stock and bonds. On the macro front, German investor sentiment declined in March, after rising in the previous five consecutive months.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

It’s a week with more or less 20 central bank decisions around the world; among others also in the USA, in Switzerland, and or also in the UK. Therefore, the focus should be on the Forex. But the stock market also has its stories that drive price action. Above all, the (un)justified fear of many account holders that their money is not safe in the event of bankruptcy. Is this an emotionally charged joke? While UBS CEO Ralph Hamers made a bargain of the century with the takeover of Credit Suisse! Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want to belittle the US regional bank crisis. But unintentionally outing myself as an incompetent bank analyst in what about ism also not! Just look at the last quarterly report of your bank! Everything else is (un)consciously (un)wanted busybodies who want to distinguish themselves at the expense of others! Or?

Trade CFDs on the financial market like in a supermarket!
Because you don’t buy there what you don’t know; and/or also believe what is wrong! And if so, clarify this with your supermarket; even like with your bank (the cfd`s you want to trade)! And that regardless of what others, including me, are saying and/or writing. I’m currently working full-time in one – behind the counter and mainly buy/sell fish & cheese, alongside meat, poultry and salamis. And know what I’m doing – know what I’m writing about. But of course, I don’t know the future price action either. That’s why I always write that my readers should operate best with entry prices, exit prices, and/or stop prices! Even if most of my readsers don’t do it – I’m not fooling myself. Nevertheless, I feel it is my obligation to provide information! After all, I would like to inform you – and not publish! So don’t tell you anything to make me feel superior to you that won’t do you any good. Give you hope to make some profit trades with the price action…

This week may be i `ll close our short NDX 4XSetUp.
So raed every sindle D2D Edition. I`ll mainly focus in the Technical Analysis 4XSetUps on our long BITCOIN Future 4XSetUp again, this week…However,
let`s get a short overview about our entry prices, target prices and/or stop prices…

                 TradingView Symbol since entry target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30
short        TVC:UKOIL 2023/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
short        NASDAQ:NDX 2023/03/06 12290 11152 12880
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945 34420 22875

I have addressed the front page of todays DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper Edition with the BITCOIN Future price action; thanks Bloomberg. Remember – and/or don`t forget – the BITCOIN Future surged more than 12% to above $24,000 on Monday, last week, and closing in on its highest level since June 2022, as fears about contagion from SVB in the broader banking industry eased. The price action is and remains an intellectual transvestite show – like in the red light district. But what seems to be normal in 2023; after the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008 and the dovish QE policy of the central banks. We now have a generation of market guys who would rather trade cryptos than leave their money safe and earning interest in the bank. Gay, Gay, Gay – a pack of Rottweilers, who drive a ball up and down, price action. And that independently of their master – the real economy. And don’t get me wrong. I don’t want to denounce non heterosexuals with this! But I also don’t have a shred of bad conscience, and/or let alone feel guilty, to argue against non hetrosexuells because I’m heterosexual – and mostly diametrically asymmetrical on sexual issues. But let’s get back to the BITCOIN future. And let’s continue with the latest price action. Because there are a few correlations that (do not) make sense. Like us regulators announced a series of emergency measures to provide liquidity following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank. Investors are meanwhile betting that the Fed would be less aggressive in raising interest rates, which, in turn, sparked an appetite for recent beaten-down cryptocurrencies. That`s it! May be?
We stay long, with our 4XSetUps BITCOIN Future…

However, us stocks rebound on tuesday as us 10y yield recovers from 6-month low!
US stock indices closed sharply higher on Tuesday, extending yesterday’s rebound as worries regarding the instability of the financial sector momentarily waned. The Dow extended early gains and closed 290 points higher, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 1.2% and 1.3%, respectively. As the yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose to above 3.55%, moving further away from a six-month low of 3.291% hit on Monday as markets calmed down and banking crisis fears eased for now.