2023/03/19 (193) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Putin travels to captured ruined city of Mariupol ahead of Xi Jinping’s visit

Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin has visited the occupied territories of the neighboring country around nine years after the Russian annexation of Crimea – for the first time since the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine began. He will then receive China’s party and state leader Xi Jinping for a three-day state visit to Moscow this Monday.

Putin, who was issued an arrest warrant for war crimes in Ukraine by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague on Friday,
wants to show once again that he is not isolated internationally. Putin visits occupied areas in Ukraine Russian state television showed the 70- Year-old Putin at the wheel of a car as he drove through the devastated Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, which was occupied by Russian troops. Destruction of buildings could also be seen on the outskirts. After his arrival in a helicopter, he informed himself about the situation during a tour and also talked to residents of the city, the Kremlin said. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Marat Chusnullin informed Putin about the status of the reconstruction work. “People are starting to return to the city,” Chusnullin said from the passenger seat.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Putin travels to captured ruined city of Mariupol ahead of Xi Jinping’s visit

Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin has visited the occupied territories of the neighboring country around nine years after the Russian annexation of Crimea – for the first time since the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine began. He will then receive China’s party and state leader Xi Jinping for a three-day state visit to Moscow this Monday.

Putin, who was issued an arrest warrant for war crimes in Ukraine by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague on Friday,
wants to show once again that he is not isolated internationally. Putin visits occupied areas in Ukraine Russian state television showed the 70- Year-old Putin at the wheel of a car as he drove through the devastated Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, which was occupied by Russian troops. Destruction of buildings could also be seen on the outskirts. After his arrival in a helicopter, he informed himself about the situation during a tour and also talked to residents of the city, the Kremlin said. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Marat Chusnullin informed Putin about the status of the reconstruction work. “People are starting to return to the city,” Chusnullin said from the passenger seat.Forex
Chinese Yuan Gains as Risk Sentiment Improves

Commodities
Gold Climbs to 11-Month High

Stock Markets
China Stocks Track Global Peers Higher
Hong Kong Shares Set to Gain Weekly
FTSE 100 Closes Near Four-Month Lows, Posts Sharpest Weekly Decline Since February 2022
European Stocks End Week on Negative Note

Chinese Yuan Gains as Risk Sentiment Improves
The offshore yuan appreciated past 6.88 per dollar, moving toward its highest levels in a month as a rescue package for First Republic Bank eased market concerns about the financial system’s vulnerability, lifting market sentiment and supporting risk-sensitive currencies. Large US banks agreed to contribute $30 billion in deposits to First Republic Bank to restore confidence in the banking system. Domestically, mixed economic data pointed to an uneven economic recovery since China dismantled its zero-Covid policy. Official data showed that retail sales in the country turned to growth in the first two months of 2023, but industrial production expanded less than expected, and the property sector remained weak. On the policy front, the People’s Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 25bps in March. It is the first rate cut in banks’ reserve ratio since December in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

Gold Climbs to 11-Month High
Gold rose 2% to 1,960 an ounce on Friday, the highest since April 2022, and is heading for a 5% weekly gain, the most in 4-1/2 months, as investors poured into haven assets following the global banking turmoil that started in the US and stoked fears of broader weakness in the world economy. Expectations that major central banks would soften their stance on inflation in order to avoid a severe recession also supported gold prices.

China Stocks Track Global Peers Higher
The Shanghai Composite climbed 0.73% to close at 3,251 while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.36% to 11,278 on Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street overnight as a rescue package for First Republic Bank eased market concerns about another bank failure in the US. The turmoil in the global banking sector also fueled speculations that major central banks could take a less aggressive approach in policy tightening in order to avoid a severe recession.

Hong Kong Shares Set to Gain Weekly
Equities in Hong Kong climbed 211 points or 1.1% to 19,415 on Friday morning session, moving away from an over 3-month low hit the day before while pointing to a 0.5% gain for the week, buoyed by a rebound on Wall Street overnight after major US banks injected USD 30 billion in deposits into First Republic Bank Thursday. The move came after Swiss lender Credit Suisse Wednesday secured an emergency loan from a central bank of up to USD 54 billion to support its liquidity. In China, the PBoC will meet with some major commercial banks to discuss the development of the fixed-income market and reform of the market-making mechanism. Financials tried to recover from a slump in recent days, up 0.6%; while consumers and property each gained over 1%.

FTSE 100 Closes Near Four-Month Lows, Posts Sharpest Weekly Decline Since February 2022
Equities in London failed to hold their initial upside momentum on Friday, with the blue-chip FTSE 100 closing down 1% near a four-month low of 7,330 points, dragged by technology and financials shares. Worries worsen about the banking industry while fears mount that it could tip the economy into a recession as initial optimism fueled by bailouts on both sides of the Atlantic faded.

European Stocks End Week on Negative Note
European equity markets fell on Friday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 down 1.2% as investors remained concerned about a potential banking crisis despite efforts in the United States and Europe to backstop troubled lenders. The Stoxx bank index dropped by more than 2.5% led by Credit Suisse (-8.2%). Domestically, the German DAX lost 1.3%, with Deutsche Bank falling 4.5% and the Commerzbank retreating 3.8%. Elsewhere, Santander dropped by over 4%, Swedbank by almost 4%, HSBC by nearly 3%, and Barclays by 2%. A group of large US banks agreed to contribute $30 billion in deposits to First Republic Bank in a bid to shore up confidence in the financial system, a day after Credit Suisse announced it would borrow up to $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

It’s a week with more or less 20 central bank decisions around the world; among others also in the USA, in Switzerland, and or also in the UK. Therefore, the focus should be on the Forex. But the stock market also has its stories that drive price action. Above all, the (un)justified fear of many account holders that their money is not safe in the event of bankruptcy. Is this an emotionally charged joke? While UBS CEO Ralph Hamers made a bargain of the century with the takeover of Credit Suisse! Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want to belittle the US regional bank crisis. But unintentionally outing myself as an incompetent bank analyst in what about ism also not! Just look at the last quarterly report of your bank! Everything else is (un)consciously (un)wanted busybodies who want to distinguish themselves at the expense of others! Or?

Trade CFDs on the financial market like in a supermarket!
Because you don’t buy there what you don’t know; and/or also believe what is wrong! And if so, clarify this with your supermarket; even like with your bank (the cfd`s you want to trade)! And that regardless of what others, including me, are saying and/or writing. I’m currently working full-time in one – behind the counter and mainly buy/sell fish & cheese, alongside meat, poultry and salamis. And know what I’m doing – know what I’m writing about. But of course, I don’t know the future price action either. That’s why I always write that my readers should operate best with entry prices, exit prices, and/or stop prices! Even if most of my readsers don’t do it – I’m not fooling myself. Nevertheless, I feel it is my obligation to provide information! After all, I would like to inform you – and not publish! So don’t tell you anything to make me feel superior to you that won’t do you any good. Give you hope to make some profit trades with the price action…

This week may be i `ll close our short NDX 4XSetUp.
So raed every sindle D2D Edition. I`ll mainly focus in the Technical Analysis 4XSetUps on our long BITCOIN Future 4XSetUp again, this week…However,
let`s get a short overview about our entry prices, target prices and/or stop prices…

                  TradingView Symbol since entry target stop
long           ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935
long           EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/01/09 14150 16300 12586
long           XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30
long           CME:BTC1! 2023/02/13 21710 27365 18615
short           TVC:UKOIL 2023/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30
long           TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
short           NASDAQ:NDX 2023/03/06 12290 11152 12880

I have addressed the front page of this D2D Edition with UBS taking control of Credit Suisse.
With the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, a new mega bank is being created in Switzerland.
Their boss is an eloquent Dutchman who is obviously not only very good with numbers, but also with other people who think differently. With fellow human beings who are asymmetrically diametrically opposed to his opinion. Because he openly shows solidarity with the LGBTQ scene and thus antagonizes reactionary heterosexuals. Excuse me, my readers. I don’t want to criminalize heterosexuals either. But even less do I want to legally equate you with heterosexual fathers and/or mothers in terms of marriage and tax bracket. I’d rather know they classified with singles, whichever sexual fetish they’re trying to provokely emulate. Sorry again for that. And let the Swiss be Swiss. And among themselves too; if you insist. Those who probably thought unspokenly before Credit Suisse bought a foreigner, then stay with us. Which I can absolutely understand. And that’s a good thing – for everyone involved…

On friday, the us consumer sentiment unexpectedly drops
as WallStreet rattles and ended in the red zone as first republic sinks.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US dropped for the first time in four months to 63.4 in March of 2023 from 67 in February, which was the highest reading in nearly a year, and well below forecasts of 67, a preliminary estimate showed.

The Dow finished over 380 points lower on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lost 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively, as concerns over the banking sector turmoil kept investors on edge. First Republic Bank came under renewed heavy selling pressure, down nearly 33%, as the rescue attempt from larger banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, offered only brief relief as worries persist that the infusion may not be enough to shore up the regional bank. Also, US-listed Credit Suisse finished 7% down, even after the bank received a CHF50 billion lifeline from the SNB. Last week, the bank sector turmoil helped big techs to gain $500 billion sending Microsoft and Alphabet shares more than 12% higher. On the week, the Dow lost 0.4%, the S&P 500 and/or Nasdaq gained 1.5% and 4.3%, respectively.