2023/03/15 (191) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

The collision between a Russian fighter jet and a US drone over the Black Sea has not only led to a diplomatic protest from the US, but also to concerns that Russia could drag the debris and thus the drone’s technology onto land. US Department of Defense officials said the wreckage has not yet been recovered. However, the Pentagon left open whether it even wants to try. Washington and Moscow are giving conflicting reports on Tuesday’s incident. A Pentagon spokesman said his department has video of the collision that it may release.

What was that drone?
The MQ-9 Reaper is 11 meters long, 4 meters high, weighs 2.2 tons and has a wingspan of 20 meters. It can fly up to 15 kilometers high and has a range of 2500 kilometers. The MQ-9 Reaper can operate unarmed, but can also carry weapons, up to eight laser-guided missiles, including Hellfire missiles and other sophisticated projectiles that can orbit the target for up to 24 hours before pouncing. The drone is remotely controlled by a two-man team – a pilot and a member of the Air Force who controls the sensors and weapons. A Reaper costs around 32 million dollars (around 29.9 million euros).
The US Air Force has used it since 2007 as a successor to the smaller Predator drone.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Wall Street bias continues to rise and fall with bank stocks.
In this case, US markets will be weighed down by the collapse in European financials.

The Saudi National Commercial Bank, Credit Suisse’s largest shareholder, will not provide any further financial assistance.
Along with this, UBS reports that the recent turbulence has led to increased capital inflows. Perhaps another signal that Credit Suisse is under pressure and needs to be caught. Irrespective of this, the ECB is likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points this Thursday. The panic surrounding European bank stocks is dragging even the strongest financial stocks down. If you keep your nerve, you can collect cheaply. As far as the Fed is concerned, the key interest rate should either not be raised at all or by 25 basis points on March 22nd.Forex
Euro Swings as ECB Sticks to Big Rate Hike

10Y Bond Yield
Swiss 10-Year Bond Yield Falls to 3-Month Low

Commodities
Gold Climbs to 6-Week High

Stock Markets
Asian Stocks Track Wall Street Higher
China Stocks Track Wall Street Higher
European Banks Selloff Led by Credit Suisse

Euro Swings as ECB Sticks to Big Rate Hike
The euro was volatile at around $1.06 on Thursday after the ECB delivered a half-percentage-point rate hike despite banking turmoil. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that a big interest rate increase was “very likely” but markets sharply reduced bets for a 50 bps move after the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in the US and European bank shares plunged.

Swiss 10-Year Bond Yield Falls to 3-Month Low
The yield on the Swiss 10-year government bond plunged toward 1%, the lowest in three months on worries about the banking system after Credit Suisse said it found material weakness in its reporting and as the top shareholder Saudi National Bank ruled out any further liquidity injections. In the meantime, FT reported that Credit Suisse had appealed to the Swiss National Bank and Swiss financial watchdog FINMA for a public show of support. On the monetary policy front, a surprise acceleration in Swiss inflation raised expectations the SNB will need to keep hiking rates. Consumer prices in Switzerland rose by 3.4% annually in February, well above market expectations of a 3.1% gain and SNB forecasts of 3%.Gold Climbs to 6-Week High
Gold rose to above $1,920 an ounce on Wednesday, the highest in six weeks, as investors poured into haven assets and shifted expectations for central banks’ plans for interest rates due to the stress in the market. Fears of a broader financial crisis intensified after shares of Credit Suisse, a Swiss Bank that has large US and global operations, tumbled more than 20%. It comes after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier in the week.

Asian Stocks Track Wall Street Higher
Asian equity markets rose on Wednesday, with technology and banking stocks leading the advance following similar moves on Wall Street overnight as investors were hopeful that the worst of the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had passed. A US inflation report which came in line with expectations also calmed investor’s nerves, with markets betting for a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week. Meanwhile, investors digested mixed economic data from China and assessed the People’s Bank of China’s decision to keep the one-year medium-term lending facility rate at 2.75%. In Japan, minutes from the Bank of Japan’s January meeting showed that members reiterated the need to maintain ultra-easy policies, stating that it will take time to achieve the 2% inflation target in a sustainable and stable manner. Shares in Australia, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and mainland China all advanced.

China Stocks Track Wall Street Higher
The Shanghai Composite rose 0.55% to close at 3,263 on Wednesday, erasing losses from the previous session and tracking gains on Wall Street overnight amid hopes that the worst fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had passed. Also, a US inflation report aligned with expectations and calmed investors’ nerves. Markets are now betting on a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week.

European Banks Selloff Led by Credit Suisse
European equity markets sank on Wednesday, with the STOXX 600 down 3% hitting its lowest level since January 3rd and the Stoxx bank index tumbled around 7%, the most in over a year as investors renewed their concerns about the banking system. The sell-off was triggered by Credit Suisse after its shares plunged 24.2% to a new record low as top shareholder Saudi National Bank ruled out any further injections, a day after the bank revealed it had found “material weaknesses” in its financial reporting processes for 2022 and 2021. Also, the German DAX dropped more than 3% to an over two-month low.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Bitcoin fell below 20000 on Saturday and has recovered splendidly. Like a ball which were pushed under water. What could also happen to the DAX at 15000 this week. It seems like that the price action will get more as usually volatile this week, until the market, most financial market particpants, can limit the effects of the SVB collapse!

What happened?
In the US, the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed.
In addition, the New York Signature Bank will also be wound up, in the enxt days. The Silicon Valley Bank was one of the most important money houses for start-up financing in the USA. The start-ups had parked large deposits with the bank in recent years, but now had to liquidate them faster than expected in view of the rising interest rates in the USA. In order to be able to continue to provide customers with money, the bank wanted to collect liquid funds through an emergency capital increase. But the attempt to collect fresh money from investors by issuing new shares caused further uncertainty. And that`s why on Thursday last week alone, SVB shares collapsed by a good 60%. So that after this price slide, the shares were suspended from trading on Friday and the bank was placed under state control. The US authorities also closed Signature Bank in New York on Sunday. The bank was the only remaining bank with large crypto businesses after Silvergate Capital went bust last week before.

We`re experiencing the shadowside of the turnaround in interest rates. But blaming the us monetary policy for this misses the target. Because central banks can only fight the symptoms; and hope that fiscal policies will become more restrictive. Because that’s where the rub is buried.  Joe Biden, with his green economic policy, has dug the us consumer and/or us taxpayer in a monetary material pit under the guise of a liberal democracy; that us taxpayers and/or us consumers will not be able to get out of; except only with growth and/or also restrictive fiscal policy…On the left are the current prices of our open 4XSetUps Trading Capabilities,
and/or under a short overview about our entry prices, target prices and/or stop prices…

                  TradingView Symbol since entry target stop
long           ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935
long           EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/01/09 14150 16300 12586
long           CME:BTC1! 2023/02/13 21710 27365 18615
short           TVC:UKOIL 2023/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30
long           TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%

Let`s raise the stop proce in the DAX Future at 15.000 points, i wrote yesterday?
As if I had gzessed and/or feared it yesterday! Today we`re stopped out in the DAX Future…

The DAX Future is weakening while the BITCOIN Future is extremely strong like a bear; excuse me, i mean tough as a bull. The USD meanwhile is expected to be lower like the oil price. But the yield curve is also becoming cheaper. Did you expect that? Not me! Thar`s why i hope you took the profits in the DAX Future above 15000 points. And/Or at least at 15000 points. Today, the DAX Future closed at 14977 points, as i wrote this text. However, if the DAX rause back tomorrow? Let him roll! But it seems like that the volatility seems to be pushing the DAX Fzture down. And if the DAX Future turns back avove 15000? So what! We’re still long with the ADIDAS share. More about the DAX Future may be next week…

However,
Dow and S&P 500 Fall Amid Crdit Suisse Crisis While US 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls

The Dow closed 280 points lower on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 lost almost 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 ended marginally in the green, after turmoil at Credit Suisse injected more jitters into markets, renewing concerns over the banking sector’s health. Credit Suisse’s plunged as much as 31% and trading for several European banks was halted after the Saudi National Bank ruled out increasing its stake a day after the bank revealed it had found “material weaknesses” in its financial reporting processes for 2022 and 2021.

The US 10Y yield, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, bottomed around 3.4%, close to levels not seen since September 2022, as investors piled into safe-haven assets amid lingering concerns about the global banking sector’s health. Credit Suisse lost almost a quarter of its value on Wednesday to hit a new record low after the top shareholder Saudi National Bank ruled out more aid leading. It came after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier in the week, reigniting some jitters among investors about the resilience of the global banking system. Meanwhile, the Labor Department’s PPI report showed that headline and core inflation slowed more than expected in February, opening the door for a possible pause in the Federal Reserve tightening cycle.