2023/03/14 (190) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Russian advance and eventual Ukrainian counter-offensive
According to their own statements, the Ukrainian units inflicted “noticeable losses” on the enemy in Bakhmut with artillery and tanks. “The defense of the fortress continues!” Colonel-General Syrskyj said. According to Ukrainian military observers, the Russian units have made up ground primarily north and northeast of Bakhmut. On the Russian side, a Ukrainian counterattack to relieve Bakhmut in the Donetsk region is increasingly expected.

London: Mercenary squad faces recruitment problem
According to British estimates, the Russian mercenary group Wagner could run into difficulties due to the lack of new prisoners as recruits in the war in Ukraine. The Ministry of Defense in London pointed out on Monday that Moscow had denied Wagner boss Prigozhin the opportunity to recruit mercenaries in prisons. Half of the prisoners used fell victim to the heavy fighting. “If the ban continues, Prigozhin will likely be forced to reduce the scope or intensity of Wagner operations in Ukraine,” the London assessment said.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

After yesterday’s slump in bank shares, this morning the sector is clearly uphill across the board.
Shares in Charles Schwab and Western Alliance have analyst buy recommendations ahead of the opening.
In addition, the Treasury Department again emphasizes that all customer deposits with US banks are safe. United Airlines shares will suffer from an earnings warning. Be that as it may, the reason for the warning is nowhere near as negative as the headlines suggest. In terms of inflation, headline and core consumer prices in February were in line with expectations. Chances are the Fed will only hike rates by 25 basis points (or not at all) on March 22nd.

US inflation data hasn’t turned much higher than feared, let alone down as hoped! Which means US inflation is taking longer than expected to come down. How long? That is the question now; which we will have to pursue every day. That’s why we remain long in the DAX for the time being and/or short in the NDX…Forex     10Y Bond Yield Commodities Stock Markets

DXY Rises after Inflation Data     Global Bond Rally Softens Gold Little Changed after US CPI Release Russian Stocks Close Sharply Higher
European Stocks Rebound
FTSE 100 Snaps Three-Day Decline

DXY Rises after Inflation Data
The dollar index rose to as high as 103.95 on Tuesday, after losing almost 1% in the previous session, as investors try to gauge the next monetary policy steps following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and another slowdown in the inflation rate. Fresh data showed the US inflation rate fell to 6% in February, the lowest since September 2021 and in line with expectations. In an abrupt change from the previous week, money markets are now pricing a 31% chance that the Fed would keep rates on hold next week, with rate cuts expected as early as June and through the end of this year.

Global Bond Rally Softens
The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note edged higher to above 3.57% on Tuesday, after falling to as low as 3.41% in the previous session and the 2-year Treasury yield stabilized around 4.16%, after booking the largest three-day slump since 1987 the day before. Investors now await the US CPI report due today which is expected to provide further clues on the Fed’s next steps. At the same time, traders continue to monitor any contagion risks from the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank while digesting news that Credit Suisse had identified “material weaknesses” in its internal controls over financial reporting. In Europe, the German 10-year government yield stabilized around 2.28%, after falling to as low as 2.16% on Monday and the UK Gilt one edged higher to 3.42%. In the Asia-Pacific region, yields also stabilized, with the Australian benchmark hovering at 3.43% and the Japanese one at 0.29%.

Gold Little Changed after US CPI Release
Gold prices were little changed around the $1908 an ounce level on Tuesday, close to high levels not seen since early February, as investors digest the latest US CPI report, adjust their monetary tightening expectations and as concerns regarding the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank and news that Credit Suisse found “material weaknesses” in its reporting continue to raise fears over contagion to other banks, leading to a risk-off mood. Inflation rate in the US slowed as expected but the core monthly rate accelerated, in a sign that inflationary pressures remain elevated, with most investors now expecting a 25bps rate hike from the Fed next week. Meanwhile, the ECB is seen raising rates by either 25bps or 50bps.

Russian Stocks Close Sharply Higher on Tuesday
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index extended early gains and closed 0.9% higher at 2,290 on Tuesday, erasing losses from the prior session and approaching the five-month high touched last week with support from banks and miners, while investors continued to monitor corporate reports and possible dividend announcements. Gold miners booked sharp gains as bank closures in the US ramped up fears of a full-blown crisis and propped up bullion prices, led by a 1.8% jump for Polymetal ahead of the release of its corporate results on Thursday.

European Stocks Rebound from 2-Day SelloffGermany Stock Market
European equity markets rebounded from a two-day selloff on Tuesday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 rising 1.7%, after a 2.4% slump in the previous session and the banking sector recovered more than 2.5% from its worst day in a year. Domestically, the German DAX added 1.9%, following a 3% drop on Monday, and the Deutsche Bank and the Commerzbank rose more than 4% each. Elsewhere, HSBC gained about 1.5% after the lender said it plans to inject £2 billion of liquidity into the UK unit of SVB. In other corporate headlines, shoemaker Tod’s, insurer Generali and airport operator Flughafen Zurich all rose following their latest earnings reports. Investors are hopeful that US policymakers might take a less aggressive approach to monetary policy after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and another slowdown in the US inflation rate. The latest figures showed US inflation rate eased to 6% in February, the lowest since September 2021.

FTSE 100 Snaps Three-Day Decline
London equities snapped three days of losses on Tuesday, with benchmark FTSE 100 pulling back from its lowest level in over two months to close around 7,630 points, driven by the industrials sector. Fears in financial markets about systemic risk started to fade, with investors now expecting that the threat of a financial crisis will force the Federal Reserve to ease up on monetary tightening. On the economic front, Britain’s unemployment rate held at 3.7% in the three months to January. Investors now await British finance minister Jeremy Hunt’s new budget, due Wednesday. Regarding individual share price movement, Rolls-Royce Holdings and Ocado Group were among the biggest gainers, up roughly 7% and 4%, respectively.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Bitcoin fell below 20000 on Saturday and has recovered splendidly. Like a ball which were pushed under water. What could also happen to the DAX at 15000 this week. It seems like that the price action will get more as usually volatile this week, until the market, most financial market particpants, can limit the effects of the SVB collapse!

What happened?
In the US, the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed.
In addition, the New York Signature Bank will also be wound up, in the enxt days. The Silicon Valley Bank was one of the most important money houses for start-up financing in the USA. The start-ups had parked large deposits with the bank in recent years, but now had to liquidate them faster than expected in view of the rising interest rates in the USA. In order to be able to continue to provide customers with money, the bank wanted to collect liquid funds through an emergency capital increase. But the attempt to collect fresh money from investors by issuing new shares caused further uncertainty. And that`s why on Thursday last week alone, SVB shares collapsed by a good 60%. So that after this price slide, the shares were suspended from trading on Friday and the bank was placed under state control. The US authorities also closed Signature Bank in New York on Sunday. The bank was the only remaining bank with large crypto businesses after Silvergate Capital went bust last week before.

We`re experiencing the shadowside of the turnaround in interest rates. But blaming the us monetary policy for this misses the target. Because central banks can only fight the symptoms; and hope that fiscal policies will become more restrictive. Because that’s where the rub is buried.  Joe Biden, with his green economic policy, has dug the us consumer and/or us taxpayer in a monetary material pit under the guise of a liberal democracy; that us taxpayers and/or us consumers will not be able to get out of; except only with growth and/or also restrictive fiscal policy…On the left are the current prices of our open 4XSetUps Trading Capabilities,
and/or under a short overview about our entry prices, target prices and/or stop prices…

                  TradingView Symbol since entry target stop
long           ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935
long           XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30
long           CME:BTC1! 2023/02/13 21710 27365 18615
short           TVC:UKOIL 2023/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30
long           TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%

Let`s raise the stop price in the DAX Future at 15.000 points
The DAX Future is weakening while the BITCOIN Future is extremely strong like a bear; excuse me, i mean tough as a bull. The USD meanwhile is expected to be lower like the oil price. But the yield curve is also becoming cheaper. Did you expect that? Not me! That`s why take the profits in the DAX Future above 15000 points. And/Or at least at 15000 points. The volatility seems to be pushing the DAX down. And if it turns again, we’re still ling with the ADIDAS share. More about the DAX Future next week.

However,
Wall Street Gains After CPI Report While US 10-Year Treasury Yield Consolidates Around 3.7%

The Dow closed 336 points or 1% higher on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rallied 1.6% and 2.1%, respectively, as February inflation cooled and the fears of a broader financial crisis eased. The Labor Department’s CPI report showed that monthly inflation rose by 0.4% in February from January, in line with expectations, resulting in annual inflation slowing to 6%, the lowest since September 2021. Investors have been speculating that the Fed will soon be able to pause its tightening cycle as fears mount for the health of the broader financial system after the failure of SVB and the closure of Signature Bank. On the corporate side, regional bank stocks regained ground after several tumult sessions, as First Republic Bank soared 27%.

The US 10-year Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, consolidated around 3.6%, moving away from a one-month low of 3.4% earlier this week, with investors reassessing the economic outlook. The Labor Department’s CPI report showed that headline inflation slowed as much as estimated. Still, the closely-watched core inflation came fractionally higher than expected, supporting bets for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The latest CPI reading comes amid turmoil in the banking sector. Swap prices show that investors broadly expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 25bps next meeting, lower than previous bets of 50bps, as the closure of Silicon Valley Bank threatened the financial stability of the American economy, even though authorities guaranteeing all deposits are safe.