2023/03/13 (189) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

The German literary adaptation “Nothing New in the West” has won four Oscars.
The film by director Edward Berger was honored as the best international film in Los Angeles on Monday night.

There were also prizes for camera, set design and film music. However, the production missed the award for best film, instead “Everything Everywhere All at Once” was awarded. The science fiction action film by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert tells the story of the operator of a laundromat who fights her way through several parallel universes. The film won a total of seven awards, including best director. Actress Michelle Yeoh won the Oscar for Best Actress.

Actor Brendan Fraser won the Oscar for Best Actor. In “The Whale” by Darren Aronofsky, the 54-year-old plays a very overweight man who wants to reconnect with his teenage daughter. With its four awards, «Nothing New in the West» has gone down in German film history. The film is only the fourth work from Germany to win the Oscar for best international film – after “The Lives of Others” (2007), “Nowhere in Africa” (2003) and/or “The Tin Drum” (1980).
Director Berger thanked his team and family: “Oh God, that means so much to us.”DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Three bank failures in less than a week fuel panic on Wall Street.
Be that as it may, the regulators made the right decisions over the weekend to calm things down somewhat.

Having non-FDIC insured customer deposits safe with SVB and Signature Bank is a big step in the right direction. But that doesn’t change the fact that shareholders get nothing in the event of bankruptcy. We are therefore seeing massive falls in stocks such as First Republic. With the FED’s new bank term funding program, banks have the opportunity to collect additional liquidity. Ultimately what the market wants to see is an expansion in FDIC insured customer deposits. However, this can only be implemented with the consent of Congress. Goldman Sachs is now assuming that the FED will not raise interest rates at all on March 22nd. A final increase of 25 basis points, with the signal that the end of the increase phase has been reached, would also help to calm the situation.Forex
DXY Weakens Below 104 Mark
Chinese Yuan Gains on Signs of Policy Continuity

10Y Bond Yield
Global Bond Yields Extend Declines

Commodities
Silver Rebounds from 4-Month Low

Stock Markets
Hang Seng Jumps Near 2% at Finish
FTSE 100 Closes at Lowest Since January
European Banks Have Worst Day in Over a Year

DXY Weakens Below 104 Mark
The dollar index fell below the 104 mark on Monday, sliding for the third straight session to a three-week low as investors assessed the prospect of further financial risks following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank. On top of concerns regarding the health of the broader financial system, the failure of SVB also led to speculations that the Federal Reserve could take a less aggressive approach to policy tightening, with Goldman Sachs even pointing to a pause. In an abrupt change from the previous week, money markets are now pricing an over 70% chance of a 25 bps hike next week.

Chinese Yuan Gains on Signs of Policy Continuity
The offshore yuan appreciated past 6.9 per dollar, recovering further from two-month lows on positive signs for policy continuity, with the current central bank governor and finance and commerce ministers set to keep their posts. The yuan also gained as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank prompted US regulators to protect depositors and financial institutions, giving rise to speculations that the US Federal Reserve could take a less aggressive approach to policy tightening to avoid further risks to the financial system. Meanwhile, latest data showed that China’s inflation rate fell to a one-year low in February.

Global Bond Yields Extend Declines
Government bond yields around the world extended declines on Monday, as investors pared bets of higher interest rates and looked for safety after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. This came despite the US government announcing it would protect “all depositors” at SVB and establishing a new lending program.

Silver Rebounds from 4-Month Low
Silver futures rose above the $21 per ounce mark, rebounding from the four-month low of $20 touched on March 8th and tracking the slide in Treasury yields and the dollar as worries about the US banking sector led investors to turn to bullion assets. The collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, fear of contagion, and response measures by the US government underscored the impact of higher borrowing costs on the economy and erased bets of a faster rate by the FED.

Hang Seng Jumps Near 2% at Finish
Hong Kong’s equities climbed 366.18 points or 1.9% to close at 19,686.10 on Monday, reversing losses from the prior four sessions that saw the index erasing its gains since the start of 2023, boosted by a sharp rise in US stock futures after Treasury Secretary Yellen said the US government would protect all depositors at Silicon Valley Bank, whose collapsed Friday was the biggest such event since 2008.

FTSE 100 Closes at Lowest Since January
Equities in London extended losses for a third consecutive session on Monday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 down almost 3% to close at an over two-month low of 7,550 points, dragged by the energy and financials sectors. Risk appetite remained subdued in Europe in the light of recent turmoil in the US banking sector, even as authorities stepped in to cap the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

European Banks Have Worst Day in Over a Year
European equity markets tumbled to two-month lows on Monday, after the collapse of US lender Silicon Valley Bank sent European banks to their worst day in more than a year. The pan-continent Stoxx 600 declined 2.3% and the Stoxx bank index fell more than 5% after HSBC acquired the British arm of SVB in a government-facilitated private sale to protect depositors. The German DAX slipped 3% to below 14,960, the lowest since January 19th.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Bitcoin fell below 20000 on Saturday and has recovered splendidly. Like a ball which were pushed under water. What could also happen to the DAX at 15000 this week. It seems like that the price action will get more as usually volatile this week, until the market, most financial market particpants, can limit the effects of the SVB collapse!

What happened?
In the US, the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed.
In addition, the New York Signature Bank will also be wound up, in the enxt days. The Silicon Valley Bank was one of the most important money houses for start-up financing in the USA. The start-ups had parked large deposits with the bank in recent years, but now had to liquidate them faster than expected in view of the rising interest rates in the USA. In order to be able to continue to provide customers with money, the bank wanted to collect liquid funds through an emergency capital increase. But the attempt to collect fresh money from investors by issuing new shares caused further uncertainty. And that`s why on Thursday last week alone, SVB shares collapsed by a good 60%. So that after this price slide, the shares were suspended from trading on Friday and the bank was placed under state control. The US authorities also closed Signature Bank in New York on Sunday. The bank was the only remaining bank with large crypto businesses after Silvergate Capital went bust last week before.

We`re experiencing the shadowside of the turnaround in interest rates. But blaming the us monetary policy for this misses the target. Because central banks can only fight the symptoms; and hope that fiscal policies will become more restrictive. Because that’s where the rub is buried.  Joe Biden, with his green economic policy, has dug the us consumer and/or us taxpayer in a monetary material pit under the guise of a liberal democracy; that us taxpayers and/or us consumers will not be able to get out of; except only with growth and/or also restrictive fiscal policy…On the left are the current prices of our open 4XSetUps Trading Capabilities,
and/or under a short overview about our entry prices, target prices and/or stop prices…

                  TradingView Symbol since entry target stop
long           ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935
long           EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/01/09 14150 16300 12586
long           XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30
long           CME:BTC1! 2023/02/13 21710 27365 18615
short           TVC:UKOIL 2023/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30
long           TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%

However, at First Republic Bank, shareholders had to cope with a price drop of another 62 percent. The shares of the big banks JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs held up comparatively well, even if they were among the weaker values ​​in the Dow with losses of 1.8 and 3.7 percent respectively. Other bank stocks fell more sharply: Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo fell up to nearly 7.5 percent, and shares in regional banks Western Alliance Bancorp and Pacwest Bancorp fell 47 percent and 21 percent, respectively. After the bankruptcy of the bank Silvergate Capital, which specializes in fintechs and cryptocurrencies, the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which specializes in start-up financing – a subsidiary of SVB Financial – was temporarily closed after a failed emergency capital increase and placed under state control. Most recently, Signature Bank had to close its doors.

Over the weekend, the Ministry of Finance, the central bank and the deposit insurance authority had declared that deposits at the SVB and Signature Bank would be protected. The US Federal Reserve also launched a new loan program to provide banks with liquidity. On Monday, US President Joe Biden stressed that Americans can be confident in the security of the banking system and announced stricter regulation. In addition to the bad news from the banking sector, there was also some positively received company news on Monday.

Seagen shares jumped 14.5 percent to $197.65 after the company agreed on a takeover with pharmaceutical company Pfizer. Pfizer is offering $229 a share in cash for the cancer specialist, valuing Seagen at $43 billion. The boards of directors of both groups approved the transaction. The Pfizer titles gained 1.2 percent. Provention Bio’s shares more than tripled in value to $24.10 after French pharmaceutical company Sanofi made a $25 billion offer. This values Provention Bio at $25.

Focus on the 20000 mark in Bitcoin and/or 15000 in the DAX

For better or for worse, these are likely to be the most important price action zones for our 4XsetUps this week. It’s going to be a very volatile week in the US in terms of price action with lots of inflation data to be released. But more about that in the next D2D Affiliate Financial Online Newspaper Edition.