2023/03/05 (183) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Our German Chancellor Scholz proud
Despite the current quarrels in the traffic light coalition, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has drawn a positive interim conclusion of the government’s work. “We have safely led Germany through a major crisis together (…) in the face of a very great challenge associated with the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine,” said the SPD politician on Sunday on the sidelines of the cabinet meeting in Meseberg joint appearance with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The crisis may not have made itself felt for everyone, “because it didn’t happen. But she was ahead of us,” said Scholz.
#
Despite the Ukraine war and the traffic light crisis – a good interim conclusion for the coalition
The federal government has big plans to lead the country into the future, Scholz announced. This is associated with many changes. “That’s why it’s completely normal for these many steps to be discussed very intensively.” It’s easy to “do nothing and close your eyes to the challenges of the future. It is more of a challenge to ensure that these tasks are carried out properly». This is what we have planned.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Neither the bulls nor the bears had the courage to trade aggressively last week.
What is particularly impressive is that Wall Street is not being brought to its knees despite the sometimes significant rise in yields.

If we see a pullback in yields, the stock market (and the tech sector in particular) should get more tailwind. A speech by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Board governor on Thursday prompted a rebound. Bostic advocated a hike of 25 basis points in March, with rate cuts starting in the summer (unrealistic). At 4 p.m. CET, the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index of service providers was also reported, with a focus on the inflation component. Allowing US WallStreet to end the week on a positive note. The yield picture is inconsistent to slightly negative for the stock market. However, Dell, Marvel Technology and Zscaler traded lower today, while Broadcom, C3ai, HP-Enterprise and VMWare ended friendly an higher price share.Forex
Indian Rupee Hits 4-week Low

10Y Bond Yield
German Bund Yield Eases from Over 11-Year High

Commodities
Gold Heads for Weekly Advance

Stock Markets
Asian Stocks Track Wall Street Higher
Russian Stocks Close Week Sharply Higher
European Stocks Close Week on Strong Note
FTSE 100 Ends Flat, Posts Weekly Gains

Indian Rupee Hits 4-week Low
USD INR decreased to a 4-week bottom of 82.307, pressured by worries over the potential end of interest rate increases in the near term due to signs of slowing inflation and weakening growth. Reuters projected that the Reserve Bank of India would lift borrowing costs by just 25bps in April to take the main interest rate to 6.75% and then keep it unchanged until the end of 2023. In the US, however, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue raising rates at least into the middle of the year to tame high inflation.

German Bund Yield Eases from Over 11-Year High
Germany’s 10-year government bond yield eased back below 2.7% after touching 2.77% on March 2nd, which was the highest level since July 2011, as investors weighed dovish comments by a Federal Reserve official against the European Central Bank’s hawkish stance. Fed’s Bostic said Wednesday he might favor a “slow and steady” rate hike moving forward and a pause by mid- or late-summer. In Europe, ECB board member Madis Müller made the case for further ECB rate hikes on Friday, while ECB vice president Luis de Guindos warned of persistent inflation.

Gold Heads for Weekly Advance
Gold firmed up near $1,840 an ounce on Friday and was on track to end the week higher, as investors reassessed that outlook for US Federal Reserve monetary policy in light of recent commentary from central bank officials. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic supported 25 basis point rate increases and said the central bank could be in a position to pause rate hikes sometime this summer.

Asian Stocks Track Wall Street Higher
Asian equity markets rose on Friday, tracking Wall Street higher as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic backed smaller 25 basis point rate hikes and indicated that the central bank could pause its policy tightening this summer. Investors also digested a raft of economic reports, with Chinese services data posting strong growth in February. Shares in Australia, Japan, Hong Kong and China advanced.

Russian Stocks Close Week Sharply Higher
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.8% higher at 2,727 on Friday, nearly erasing losses from the prior session to end the week 2.9% higher as concerns of geopolitical escalation eased since the Kremlin accused Ukrainian forces of terrorism in the Bryansk region yesterday. Banks led the gains in the session with a 1.3% jump from Sberbank. The lender’s shares are up by more than 20% year-to-date, supported by hopes that the Russian financial sector is consolidating 

European Stocks Close Week on Strong Note
European equity markets rose on Friday, with the benchamrk Stoxx 600 up 1% led by auto and mining stocks while oil and gas related shares declined. Domestically, the German DAX advanced 1.6% to 15,596, the highest close since February 2022, and the car manufacturer Volkswagen surged about 10% on a better-than-expected 2023 forecast.

FTSE 100 Ends Flat, Posts Weekly Gains
London equities ended Friday’s session virtually flat, with the FTSE 100 hovering around 7,950 points, as gains in the materials sector offset losses in energy.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Bitcoin dropped more than 4% to around $22,400 on 2023/03/03, a level not seen in more than two weeks, as mounting worries about the fallout of crypto-focused US bank Silvergate Capital sent shockwaves through crypto markets. Will the 20000 price action area in the BITCOIN Future hold and/or the 100 points in the DXY Future. That`s the main question, i have about the price action, for this march`23! And/Or of course, will the US10Y Yield climbe above 4%. Because while the DXY together with the US Yield Curve has been increasing in price since 2021 and/or 2022, by the way with the oil price action, where we´re meanwhile long back again, BTCUSD has become cheaper rapidly! Which is self-explanatory, because since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008, we have finally been able to place interest securieties back again.

That’s the basic scenario as far as the price action goes, which interests me on a daily basis. And/Our 4XSetUps also operate around this basis questions. And that please always in connection with the current as well as expected us inflation; which like a cancer is forcing the us economy to stagnate. Which will also have political consequences in the usa: one way or the other! Because more and more Americans are remembering in 2023 how peacefully and without inflation usa had grown under Donald J. Trump! What will be decided politically in the USA in 2024. Today, however, nothing directly has (not) anything to do with the price action on the financial market today.
But more on that elsewhere…

This calendar week we will tighten the reins a bit. Because the market is bubbling. That`s why is the main focus on the DAX Future; especially around the 15.000 points price action. This is a significant area. Because the 15000 points are an high number; at there the DAX Future historically was not traded so often. From this point of view it could may have some sell pressure around this proce action zone. Because bulls, like me, became cold feets. So stay aware and/or gi long/shirt, if you`re a scalper, intraday trader around the 15000 points mark. But all in alll, I`m pretty optimistic realistic for higher points in the DAX Future. That`s why we remain long in the DAX Future until the end of this year 2023…

Here an short overview
about all our open 4XSetUps…

since entry target stop TradingView

23/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935 ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD
23/01/09 14150 16300 12586 EUREX:FDAX1!
23/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30 XETR:ADS
23/02/13 21710 27365 19575 CME:BTC1!
23/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30 TVC:UKOIL
23/03/03 4.79% TVC:US01Y

However,
Wall Street Ends Higher, Posts Weekly Gain

The Dow Jones closed 386 points higher on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained 1.6% and 1.9%, respectively, as Treasury yields eased from their recent highs and investors were less concerned about monetary policy path after Federal Reserve officials’ speeches. The sentiment was boosted after Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that he still sees the central bank raising rates by another quarter percentage point later this month. The market movement came in tandem with easing Treasury yields, which brought some respite to beaten-down technology and other high-growth stocks. Meanwhile, data showed the US services sector was still growing, even though the Federal Reserve has been trying to cool the economy with an aggressive tightening campaign. For the week, the Dow added 0.9% and the Nasdaq gained 1.3%, while the S&P 500 snapped a three-week decline by rising 0.9%.