2023/01/04 (141) Column

What, If
Global Scenarios 2023 !?


The current interest rate of each currency, in each exchange rate, among themselves. And/Or rather the expected interest rate development is a significant guide for the basic orientation of each exchange rate. After all, we trade the future on the financial market every day – and are rewarded when we have made the right decisions based on our expectations. After the currency, I perceive the yield curve of each currency as the most important indication. After all, so we can use this to see how high or low the refinancing costs are today. And/Or imagine what it might looks like in the future. So that for me, in everyday life, the stock market, i.e. Wall Street in New York, always has third priority. Just after I found out from Chicago how expensive the USD is against the other major world currencies – as well how high/low is the US yield curve.

However, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine at the end of February 2022 changed everything.
Also for me, and that not only as publisher and/or editor of this DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper. Because i wrote our first Edition only some days before, in the same month. And up until the day in question, I really couldn’t imagine that Vladimir Putin, and/or the Kremlin, would order Russian soldiers to invade Ukraine. The Russian attack on Ukraine led to a serious course correction in the so-called political West – ie the USA, the NATO member states, the EU states, and or even German politics (in my home country). Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced our German foreign policy on February 27, 2022 in his government statement in the Bundestag. „The invasion of Ukraine on April 24 February 2022 marks a turning point in the history of our continent,” he said just 3 days later. For the chancellor, like the majority of my compatriots and/or Europeans, as well as most Americans, the political question has been above all: “Whether power can break the law. Whether we allow Putin to turn the clock back to the times of the great powers of the 19th century or whether we muster the strength to set limits on warmongers like Putin.”  Which is why our current federal government has since that a clear political answer: “Yes, we want and we do will secure our freedom, our democracy and our prosperity.” And let no doubt: “We accept the challenge.” Do it “soberly and resolutely”. And then he added: “We stand for peace in Europe. We will never accept violence as a political tool. We will always stand up for the peaceful resolution of conflicts. And we won’t rest until peace is secured in Europe.” 

And that`s why I’ve been trying to analyze and evaluate Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine (unfortunately) on every 4XSetUp Scenario, so that we understand the consequences for us non-Russians & non-Ukrainians understand the consequences for us – for the financial market participants, even for the so called market. So that we, on each additional trading day, can make even better trading decisions with the help of each additional DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper. Because both states are occasionally large exporters of certain raw materials. And since commodities are mostly charged in US dollars, we are back at the end of this column again at the beginning of this column.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– My Last Thoughts Abot Market Price Actions

It will be a busy week in the US with center stage taken by labour market report, FOMC meeting minutes, ISM manufacturing and services PMI, foreign trade, factory orders, and Jolts Job Openings. Elsewhere, inflation rates for December will be released for Euro Area, Germany, France, Netherlands, Turkey, Switzerland, Philippines, and Indonesia. Finally, investors will pay attention to manufacturing PMIs from China, India, Spain, South Korea, Canada, Italy, and Switzerland.

About central banks it should be realx week; only the BOI (Bank of Israel) and/or the PNB (Poland National Bank) have their regulary monthly meetings, this week. The BOI should raise up their rates wit 0.5% to 3.75% and/or the PNB should hold their rate at 6.75%.

Whatever, take a looh also on the Financial Markets 4XSetUps this week. Like every week, meanwhile I have prepared for you up to 18 different charts (including technical indicators as well as analyses); so that you can make even better trading decisions (buying/selling aor not trading) for the coming quarter (next 13 weeks). And this week once again about 5 shares of our german blue chip dax index; namely XETR-QIA (Qiagan), XETR-RWE (Rwe), XETR-SAP (Sap), XETR-SHL (Siemens Health), and/or XETR-SIE (Siemens).

And don’t forget to read all Technical Analysis 4XSetIps this week also, because I decided to formulate 3 new long 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities this year alongside our long 4XSetUp Dow Future.
Which? From page 51 more (from Sunday to Wednesday)…DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Some Last News About Market Price Actions

Dollar Eases Ahead Of Fed Minutes
Gold Hovers Near 6-Month Highs
China Stocks Mixed On Wednesday
European Shares Rally
US Stocks Turn Negative
Oil Plunges 5%Commodity

Dollar Eases Ahead Of Fed Minutes
The dollar index slipped to around 104 on Wednesday, easing from a two-week high of 104.86 reached in the previous session as investors cautiously awaited the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes, which could provide clues on its policy tightening path. Investors are also looking ahead to a raft of US economic data this week, headlined by the December jobs report on Friday. Recession fears in the US gripped markets at the start of the year, with former New York Fed President William Dudley saying that a US recession is on the cards but will not likely be severe. On top of that, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan said a recession is the “most likely outcome” for the world’s largest economy. The US central bank hiked its federal-funds rate by a cumulative 4.25% in 2022, bringing borrowing costs to the highest since 2007. It also signaled further tightening in an ongoing effort to bring down inflation.

Gold Hovers Near 6-Month Highs
Gold edged above $1,840 an ounce on Wednesday, hovering near its highest levels in six months amid a general dollar weakness, as investors awaited the latest Federal Reserve minutes which could provide clues on its policy tightening path. Economic concerns in the US also supported the metal, with former New York Fed President William Dudley saying that a US recession is on the cards but will not likely be severe, while former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan said a recession is the “most likely outcome” for the world’s largest economy. Moreover, IMF head Kristalina Georgieva warned that 2023 is going to be a tough year as the main engines of growth, namely the US, Europe, and China, are all experiencing weakening activity. Investors now look ahead to a raft of data this week that could guide the outlook for growth and monetary policy, including private sector activity data from major economies, a key monthly US jobs report, and the latest Fed minutes.

China Stocks Mixed On Wednesday
The Shanghai Composite rose 0.22% to close at 3,124 while theShenzhen Component lost 0.2% to 11,095 on Wednesday, as mainland stocks struggled for direction amid surging Covid cases and a rising death toll in China, though the country’s swift reopening is seen as a positive factor to its economy in the long term. An improving global risk sentiment also kept Chinese stocks from further losses, as investors looked ahead to the latest US Federal Reserve meeting minutes that could guide the rates outlook.

European Shares Rally
Major bourses in Europe rallied nearly 2% on Wednesday afternoon, extending the gains to around 3% in the first days of 2023, as investors welcomed fresh economic data. Inflation rate in France unexpectedly eased in December, in line with German figures released yesterday, raising expectations inflationary pressures in Europe have finally peaked. At the same time, Composite PMIs for the major European economies continued to point to a contraction last month although the rate of the decline slowed and was smaller than initially thought. Traders now await the FOMC minutes release later in the day for further clues on the Fed’s monetary tightening path.

US Stocks Turn Negative
Wall Street failed to hold its initial upside momentum on Wednesday, with all three major indexes crossing into negative territory as investors digested a slew of economic data while refraining from placing big bets ahead of the FOMC minutes. US job openings fell slightly to 10.5 million in December but remained at considerably high levels, suggesting that wages would continue to rise as companies try to attract workers. At the same time, the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell for a second consecutive month to 48.4 in December 2022, the lowest since May 2020, adding to concerns about the health of the world’s largest economy. Now, the focus turns to minutes of the latest Fed policy meeting later today, which will offer critical insight into the next move in interest rates. On the corporate side, Microsoft fell more than 5% after UBS downgraded the company’s stocks to “neutral”. Salesforce also came under pressure after announcing that it would lay off 10% of staff.

Oil Plunges 5%
WTI crude futures dropped 5% to around $73 per barrel on Wednesday, not far from a one-year low of $70.3 hit on December 9th, pressured by a weakening global demand outlook amid growing fears of a Fed-induced recession in the US and persistent coronavirus-related uncertainties in top consumer China. Meanwhile, OPEC crude production rose in December, led by a recovery in Nigerian supply, despite the cartel’s agreement to cut output.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Due to the death of our German Pope Benedict from Bavaria, I will want to keep this week a little bit shorter. Because I feel obliged to travel to Rome – and to pay him my last respects.

As a German Croat, of Roman Catholic parents, from the former SFR Yugoslavia, it is a matter of course for me to travel to Rome. And attend the funeral ceremony. For better and/or for worse, this is due to the Franciscan religious upbringing of my parents, especially my father Ivan and his brother Darko, who baptized me when I was a small child. And because my father always took me to every funeral ceremony of a fellow human being he knew, even as a small child. And by the way always reminded me how important it was and is for him – and that he had been taught it that way by his father.

That`s why no much talk about our new 4XSetUps this week in this year 2023. But for the time being with a little restraint. Because there are more important things than making money on the financial market. And or to help my fellow human beings to earn money on the financial market, also thanks to my info brokerage. What I really really like to do. But this week everything is different.

But let me write again briefly that we will be repositioning ourselves this week for the year 2023. And without another 4XSetUp in the UKOIL – but still long in the Dow Future. In addition, I think it might be worth formulating a long 4XSetUps for the EURUSD exchange rate, for the DAX Future, and for the TESLA share. What I will also do during the week…