2023/01/02 (139) Column

What, If
The Economy 2023 !?


What if the stagflation of las year 2022, this year 2023, persists in the numerous different economic areas; like the united states, the eurzone, the united kingdom, japan, switzerland, australia, and/or canada? Such as the most treated global currencies (even the us dollar, the european euro, the british pound sterling, the japanese yen, the swiss france, the austrilian dollar and/or also the canada dollar?
Even further increases? Let alone stagflation not come down 2023?

Stagnation is noticeable when prices are rising faster than the overall value of an economy.
So, if the monthly inflation is higher than the quarterly GDP, in the same period, compared to the previous year. And is basically always a negative indication for an economic area, because fewer and fewer people can afford the everyday things that are becoming more and more expensive (ie inflation) (because the GDP lags behind the inflation rate). So let’s take the us stagflation as an example: The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 1.90 percent in the third quarter of 2022 over the same quarter of the previous year. While the annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a fifth straight month to 7.1% in November of 2022, the lowest since December last year, and below forecasts of 7.3%. It follows a reading of 7.7% in October. What makes a Stagflation Rate of 5.8% in October and/or 5.2% in November. The US Stagflation started in July 2021 with 0.4% – with an US Inflation of 5.4% and/or GDP Annual Growth Rate of 5.0%.

Politicians have the opportunity to provide targeted monetary support with the help of fiscal policy, production and trade, as well as the service sector, with the help of state subsidies. To the extent that there is more or less an oversupply of certain goods and/or even services in every economic area, precisely because of the numerous traders, so that prices sooner and/or later fall. While the central banks can tax the money itself in the form of a restrictive hawkish monetary policy, i.e. a higher current interest rate than the current inflation rate. Which makes profits more difficult for companies as refinancing costs increase. But faster ensures that inflation falls. And we consumers and/or taxpayers, who we all are more or less in every economic area, can then consume more for the same amount of money as in the previous year. At best, GDP stays at the same level during a rate hike cycle because during that period, only prices resign from compensatory profiteers. And it is precisely these companies, if they are listed, that need to be found on the stock exchange and sold, because they cannot refinance themselves on the basis of their profits, let alone not from their own cash flow (if they have one). However, on the other side, we should also looking and buying corresponding shares whose company management can do this! What? Refinancing their own refinancing costs thanks a good cash flow and/or still invest in the future; in new products, services, and/or employees.
That`it – the best off all worlds (for every profitable company)…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– My Last Thoughts Abot Market Price Actions

It will be a busy week in the US with center stage taken by labour market report, FOMC meeting minutes, ISM manufacturing and services PMI, foreign trade, factory orders, and Jolts Job Openings. Elsewhere, inflation rates for December will be released for Euro Area, Germany, France, Netherlands, Turkey, Switzerland, Philippines, and Indonesia. Finally, investors will pay attention to manufacturing PMIs from China, India, Spain, South Korea, Canada, Italy, and Switzerland.

About central banks it should be realx week; only the BOI (Bank of Israel) and/or the PNB (Poland National Bank) have their regulary monthly meetings, this week. The BOI should raise up their rates wit 0.5% to 3.75% and/or the PNB should hold their rate at 6.75%.

Whatever, take a looh also on the Financial Markets 4XSetUps this week. Like every week, meanwhile I have prepared for you up to 18 different charts (including technical indicators as well as analyses); so that you can make even better trading decisions (buying/selling aor not trading) for the coming quarter (next 13 weeks). And this week once again about 5 shares of our german blue chip dax index; namely XETR-QIA (Qiagan), XETR-RWE (Rwe), XETR-SAP (Sap), XETR-SHL (Siemens Health), and/or XETR-SIE (Siemens).

And don’t forget to read all Technical Analysis 4XSetIps this week also, because I decided to formulate 3 new long 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities this year alongside our long 4XSetUp Dow Future.
Which? From page 51 more (from Sunday to Wednesday)…
DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Some Last News About Market Price Actions

Asian Stocks Mixed In Holiday Trade
SENSEX Bounces Back
European Stocks Start 2023 On A Positive Note
Italian Shares Start Year In The Green
IBEX 35 Kicks Off 2023 On Bright Note
Paris Stocks Start 2023 With Sharp Gains

Asian Stocks Mixed In Holiday Trade
Asian equity markets were mixed in holiday-thinned trade on Monday, with most major bourses in the region remaining shut for the New Year’s Day. South Korean stocks edged lower and Indian shares gained, while other major markets including Australia, Japan, mainland China and Hong Kong remain closed for the holidays. Investors also continued to assess the outlook for global growth as major central banks are expected to raise interest rates further in an ongoing effort to bring down inflation. Meanwhile, China’s swift reopening sparked hopes for a faster economic recovery, though the possibility of a global surge in infections and worldwide restrictions remain a huge risk for the markets.

SENSEX Bounces Back
Equities in India rebounded on Monday, the first trading session of 2023, with the benchmark S&P BSE SENSEX adding 0.5% to around 61,170 points, buoyed by optimism surrounding the economy. Private survey data showed that India’s manufacturing sector grew the most since October 2020 in December, with both output and new orders expanding robustly. Investors were also upbeat after news that infrastructure output in India rebounded strongly in November due to firm electricity, steel, and coal production. Metals and the banking sector stocks led the advance, driven by a notable performance from Tata Steel (5.9%). India’s benchmark stock index rose by 4.4% in 2022, the seventh straight year of gains, outperforming other benchmarks in Asia.

European Stocks Start 2023 On A Positive Note
European shares rose nearly 1% in the first trading session of 2023 on Monday after suffering the worst year since 2018, led by gains in technology and energy stocks. Investors looked ahead to fresh catalysts for 2023, though trading volume is expected to stay subdued as several major markets remain shut for New Year holidays; while digested final PMI data showing the Eurozone’s manufacturing downturn eased in December. Meanwhile, German finance minister Christian Lindner told Bild newspaper he expected inflation in Europe’s biggest economy to drop to 7% this year and to continue falling in 2024 and beyond, but warned about stubbornly high energy prices. European shares have tumbled nearly 13% last year due to geopolitical tensions, fears of a recession and prospects of rising interest rates amid stubbornly high inflation.

Italian Shares Start Year In The Green
The FTSE MIB index consolidated early gains and closed 1.9% higher at 24,160 on Monday, starting the year on a positive note with support from energy shares and auto manufacturers while investors digested European PMI data. Despite remaining in contractionary territory, both Italian and aggregate Eurozone factory activity levels declined at a slower pace in December. On the corporate front, energy shares led the gains as traders continued to assess demand levels amid China’s economic reopening, with Eni and Saipem shares soaring 3% and 4.8%, respectively.

IBEX 35 Kicks Off 2023 On Bright Note
Equities in Spain added more than 1.5% on Monday, with the benchmark IBEX 35 closing above 8,360, as dip buyers emerged to blunt a dismal 2022. In a thin holiday trading and without any catalysts present on the market, investors continued to assess the monetary policy and digest new manufacturing data. Domestically, Spain’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.4 in December, marking the weakest rate of operating conditions deterioration in the three months. Employment also stabilized, and business confidence improved, underpinned by hopes that commercial activities and the pandemic end would support growth. On the corporate side, GRIFOLS and Tecnicas Reunidas were among the top gainers, up over 2% each. The IBEX35 ended 2022 roughly 6% down amid the aggressive tightening cycle by the European Central Bank and the energy crisis sparked by the war in Ukraine.

Paris Stocks Start 2023 With Sharp Gains
The CAC 40 index closed 1.8% higher, tracking the upswing in major European bourses and starting the year on a strong note with support from energy shares, banks, and luxury brands after tanking nearly 10% in 2022. Energy producers added more than 3% on average, while heavyweight luxury brands traded in Paris booked sharp gains with LVMH jumping 2% as investors continued to assess demand in China as the country’s economy reopens. On the data front, the French manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 49.2 in December, but still marked the fourth consecutive contraction for domestic factory activity.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Due to the death of our German Pope Benedict from Bavaria, I will want to keep this week a little bit shorter. Because I feel obliged to travel to Rome – and to pay him my last respects.

As a German Croat, of Roman Catholic parents, from the former SFR Yugoslavia, it is a matter of course for me to travel to Rome. And attend the funeral ceremony. For better and/or for worse, this is due to the Franciscan religious upbringing of my parents, especially my father Ivan and his brother Darko, who baptized me when I was a small child. And because my father always took me to every funeral ceremony of a fellow human being he knew, even as a small child. And by the way always reminded me how important it was and is for him – and that he had been taught it that way by his father.

That`s why no much talk about our new 4XSetUps this week in this year 2023. But for the time being with a little restraint. Because there are more important things than making money on the financial market. And or to help my fellow human beings to earn money on the financial market, also thanks to my info brokerage. What I really really like to do. But this week everything is different.

But let me write again briefly that we will be repositioning ourselves this week for the year 2023. And without another 4XSetUp in the UKOIL – but still long in the Dow Future. In addition, I think it might be worth formulating a long 4XSetUps for the EURUSD exchange rate, for the DAX Future, and for the TESLA share. What I will also do during the week…