2022/12/29 (137) Column

Principles for Dealing
with the Changing World Order:
Why Nations Succeed and Fail
Buy Ray Dalio`s Book Too!


Since 1997, I have been more or less (in)directly involved with the stock market on a daily basis. First and/or until today himself as a small private trader who, on the one hand, more than multiplied his own small depot. And on the other side also managed a margin call. At the last 25 years menwhile I managed 5-digit USD sums myself – also in the form of hundreds of leverages. And also did not have a single trading account for several months, even many years. But I always followed the stock market like an attentive info broker. Also during my volunteer from 2010 untikl 2019 at some CFD online brokers, in the last 10 years, while I cared for my deceased mother due to old age. And at times even formulate internal lectures, seminars, webinars, and/or analyses, for account holders who, individually or collectively, own several million USD in the mid-2-digit range.

By reading, analyzing and evaluating George Soros’ Theory of Reflection, I quickly learned that the monetary policy and/or fiscal policy development of each currency area was and is one of the decisive factors for the economy of each currency area. And thanks to Andre Kostolany, I quickly became aware that the fundamental development of the company determines the prices in the long term.

However, the most important asset, as I quickly found out, not only about financial markets, but especially, even in daily life, is the liquidity that is available (i.e. to each individual player, in whatever form). Because you can’t do business without money. And since I come from a humble working-class family with an immigrant background; in which, looking back, in our childhood nothing was missing except money. And then only in retrospect; because as a child and/or teenager you don’t really think about something like that, you just live it by yourself. And tries to make the best of it. It was and is natural for me to make myself intellectually and emotionally truly independent of money. Even if I am passionate about dealing with it, like to multiply it, yes, meanwhile, I also write passionately about it every day in the form of my DEVISE 2 DAY Financial Market Online Newspaper. And it also gives me truly heartly satisfaction when my readers, also with the help of my information, learn to better understand how to professionally and/or skillfully increase their money, in the financial markets, even also (in)directly thanks to me.

In all my 4XSetUps trading capabilities I try to find a current reasonable entry price in order to anticipate an upcoming price campaign. In the best case scenario, my readers will not only benefit in the short term, but also in the medium term, even in the long term. The so-called behavioral finance is the most important indicator for me, next to the so-called technical analysis. In order to be able to read, analyze and/or evaluate (buy/sell) the relationship between the price and the financial market participants correctly. However, I`m also trying never to lose the whole big picture, as i wrote any 4XSetUp. Even if I always operate philosophically and psychologically with the hypothesis that the whole thing, according to the chinese Daoist world view, cannot be formulated. And as a Catholic, baptized, believing Catholic and/or much more friend of the Old Testament, I never imagine knowing everything all better as another – putting myself in God’s place. And that at least, in a Jewish sector, like the WallStreet, like the financial markets.

However,
my point in this last column is this:
Learn! Learn! Learn! And that only from the best in their area! Read books about central banks, by and about central bankers. As well as books by and/or about economists. Get involved with the financial market with the help of whatever authors you want! Put yourself in their shoes to understand their thinking. So that you too can learn to master future scenarios, just like your role models, on the financial market. And not only in relation to technical analysis!

At this Christmas, for example,
I gave myself the book by Ray Dalio – I bought it myself.
And would like to recommend it to you. Because i think, o didn`t read it yet, it is a book that complements my daily DEVISE 2 DAY Financial Market Online Newspaper super, of i`m not wrong. Because always, when i listen up to Ray dalio, i fasrly realized that he never tries to lose the whole overview. In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio takes the reader on his study of the great empires – including the Dutch, British and American – and advances the ‘great cycle’ that records the successes and failures of all the great countries of the world throughout history, in the right light. A few years ago, Ray Dalio began to notice troubling political and economic developments never before encountered in his 50-year career. In search of an explanation, he discovered that such combinations of conditions are characteristic of periods of transition, in which wealth and power shifted in ways that reshaped the world order. This book analyzes the most turbulent economic and political periods in history to show why the times ahead will be radically different from those we have experienced so far.

A hopefully well-written book that I will start reading in January 2023. By the way, from a super likeable family man. Who last month contacted me on Twitter when I was feeling really bad. Yes, I mean really really bad – I was obviously actually not feeling well. Jesus, did I rejoice when he started following me and/or much contacted me privately (like a friendly acquaintance next door) under my new Twitter account @D2D_HelpfulTool – and appreciated me at least as much as I did him. Which makes me totally healthly, peacefully, selfsure, and/or freely, again; when I think how often I was able to see him live on CNBC and or also BloombergTV. And whose words I always listened to. And what also incredibly motivated me to continue with my DEVISE 2 DAY Financial Market Online Newspaper.Because I seriously thought about to stopping the publication of my DEVISE 2 DAY in autumn 2022 with the start of 2023. Because at times I was and still am scared because I still haven’t been able to come to an agreement with my publisher. He also encouraged me in what I was doing, but we have until today not an agreemet yet. So I would like to pay Ray Dalio back with this column. And you, yes exactly you, yes exactly you, should like to recommend his book too. I think that with the help of help yourself with my 4XSetUps trading capabilities you have earned at least 20$ over this year 2002. If so, then invest it in your personal competent further training, as I do. And that in a global macro investor for more than 50 years, even Ray Dalio, who founded Bridgewater Associates out of his two-bedroom apartment in NYC and ran it for most of its 47 years, building it into the largest hedge fund in the world and the fifth most important private company in the US according to Fortune Magazine.

His investment innovations (e.g., risk parity, alpha overlay, and All Weather) changed the way global institutions approach investing, and he has received several lifetime achievement awards. Over the decades he has been a valued macroeconomic advisor to many policy makers around the world. Because of the impact his thinking has had on global macroeconomic policies, he was named by TIME magazine as one of the “100 Most Influential People in the World.” Today, Ray remains an investor and mentor at Bridgewater and serves on its board. He is also the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles: Life and Work, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, and Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises.

Ray graduated with a BS in Finance from C.W. Post College in 1971 and earned an MBA degree from Harvard Business School in 1973. He has been married to his wife, Barbara, for more than 40 years and has three grown sons and five grandchildren. He is an active philanthropist with special interests in ocean exploration and helping to rectify the absence of equal opportunity in education, healthcare, and finance.

Jesus, god bless him – and his loved ones around him!
And that regardless of his skills, via the financial markets. Because the fact that he got in touch with me after we first came into contact via social media without any commitment just proves to me what a greatfully fine true catholic fellow he is. So, with this in mind, happy new year 2023 to all of you, my readers, yes to you too, yes I mean you, exactly you. Just said today especially you, Ray. Jesus! May God protect you and your loved ones around you! Thank you – you know why without going into more detail at this point…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– My Last Thoughts Abot Market Price Actions

This week looks set to be a relaxed week in terms of new old central bank informations. Only the South American Central Bank of Uruguay, the BCU (Banco Central del Uruguay) will hold its regular monthly meeting again on Friday – and publish its interest rate decision. The major central banks of the most traded currencies will not meet again until next year, 2023. The BOI and also NBP start next week. On Monday, the 2nd the BOI (Bank of Israel) wilö start the yeaor 2023. Following, by the Poland`s NBP (National Bank of Poland) on Wednesday, the 4th. As one of the major central banks. Our long GBPUSD 4XSetUp trading capability closed in profit last week. So that we currently have no open 4XSetUp in the forex market. After we were also able to make a very good profit in DXY in the course of 2022. For a new long 4XSetUp trading capabolity in GBPUSD i would wait until next days and/or weeks.

However, in the last week of 2022 the focus will shift to stocks as there would be very few important economic releases. Investors are hoping that the stocks will stage the Santa Claus rally, bringing some respite to the markets. In the US, housing data and several regional PMI readings will take center stage. Also, Japan will release retail sales, industrial production, and unemployment rate while in South Korea, Spain, and Russia the focus will be on inflation rates.

In the Financial Markets 4XSetUps I have put once again 5 more stocks from our german DAX40 index, this week. As well as XETR-MRK (Merck) on sunday, XETR-MTX (MTU AERO AUTOTEILE) on monday, XETR-MUV2 (MUENCHENER RÜCKVERSICHERUNG) on tuesday, XETR-PAH3 (PORSCHE) on wednesday, an/or XETR-PUM (PUMA) on thursday, you can get an detail overview of until 18 different pov`s (point of views) about the price action of every single share.

As far as the Technical Analysis 4XSetUps are concerned, i will focus us only to the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, the Dow Future, CBOT_MINI-YM1!, this week. Since we were ripped out of all 4XSetUps, last week. So let us first formulate our basic expectations for 2023, this week.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

A super exciting year 2022 is coming to an end! And regardless of our (not) successful 4XSetUps trading capabilities, I would like to thank each and every reader here. Because if you, yes you, didn’t read my DEVISE 2 DAY daily, every day, then financing my newspaper wouldn’t be worth it for me. Let alone for my nine online brokers.

For the last week I will focus on the DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index); even the Dow Future, the CBOT_MINI-YM1!. Nevertheless, I will also want to give us a detailed overview of the GBPUSD pair again. But don’t want to formulate new 4XSetUps trading capability. Because I think it would make more sense to let the last week expire first. And then in January 2023, sooner or later, go long/short again.

Anyway, the DJI (Dow Jones Indistrial Average Index) was the best stock market in the US last year 2022. And that, fundamentally argued, quite rightly so. Because the least vulnerable companies are listed in this  stock market, which many colleagues refer to as zombie companies. So as a company that cannot refinance your liabilities and interest from earnings let alone cash flow. Because that is one of the most crucial fundamental points of every stock valuation in an environment of higher interest rates. And that’s why I generally prefer the DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index) over the NASDAQ for 2023 again. Because I perceive a lower downside risk in the DJI than in the NASDAQ. Precisely because of the refinancing problems that have just been formulated for many technology companies that are listed in the NASDAQ. However, we will observe, analyze and evaluate in every issue, including in 2023, how far the DJI can rise and/or perform better than the NASDAQ in 2023. To formulate new old 4XSetUp trading capabilities regularly…