2022/10/06 (083) Column

„Hope hasn’t died yet,
– not even in the case of the current oil price“


Hope for improvement helps most people through times of crisis.
Because the bleaker the prospects, the stronger hope makes you feel about it.
But if you don’t know the limits of hope, it can also harm you. And not only on us wallstreet, on the financial market, especially in derivatives trading (in the form of CFD`s). Because if hope is not based on competent action, it is always just an illusion. You only get out of it with luck, because fortunately external circumstances made it possible. What I grant to every single person from the heart! But what I don’t want to rely on, in most cases, as well as in the case of my participation in the financial market. That’s why basically always YES to hope, like to our beloved wife, my market guys. But always because of our actions.

It is difficult for me, my dear and valued readers, to associate a purchase recommendation with the principle of hope. Because just an emerging energy crisis with the likely further price increases can become a heavy burden for inflation, the economy and the population as a whole. At the latest when people like you and me stop driving. And so the demand, precisely because of historical prices, despite a lack of supply, is absent and absent and absent – and then the oil price falls again. Until we drive cars again. And or diametrically the other way around, as I have just tried to describe a fantastic price cycle as realistically as I can. And don’t get us wrong! I drive my car whenever I see fit. I will also be formule an ukoil 4xsetups trading capability again soon.

But until that allow me, my lovely reader, to study the spectacle of the energy market price action from the side, amused for the time being. Sometimes I’m reminded of an Ebay advert during the early days. On the one hand the green secular lefties, in our so-called west. And on the other side, the muslim religious right, from the middle east. Let`s be honest, my readers. Our green secular lefties, in our so called west, discredit the black oil, like paranoid homosexuals, omnipotent heterosexuals. So that we as taxpayers and consumers can be transformed to go green. While the other straight men muslim religious right of honor quietly realise the business of their lives. Because taxpayers and consumers, at least in our so-called west, have already been so green transformed that they voluntarily pay more. While green politics only costs us in our so called west; and politically explicitly wanted. Is the largest company in the world, on the stock exchange, an oil company. With a market value of 2.3 trillion dollars (around 2.2 trillion euros) as of June 30, 2022, Saudi Aramco was the most expensive company in the world. Tech giant Apple, which topped the top 100 at the end of 2021, came second with $2.2 trillion. Don`t understand me wrong, by the way! The crown prince said the state remains the largest shareholder in Saudi Aramco after the transfer process, as it retains more than 94% of the company’s shares. A 4% stake would be worth nearly $80 billion, based on the company’s market capitalisation. So hand on heart: That´s the way, how to handle tax money! Isn`t it, my conservative freedom-loving readers, in our so called west? Incidentally, in view of the price explosion on the world markets, the Saudi Arabian oil giant recently made a historically high profit of $48.4 billion. No previous company in the history of stock exchanges has published such a quarterly surplus, like Saudi Aramco!

And what happens here, in the so-called West?
We have higher inflation than we have had in 40 years!
And our left-wing socialist political class seems to want to transform itself, and us consumers and taxpayers, under the cloak of democracy so kleptomatically that we all seem to have forgotten that we all, at least unspoken, have everything politically, with green energy, organized to ourselves! That`s why I truly don`t understand, why are conservative, freedom-loving politicians, in our so-called West, silent about this? Aren’t they competent enough not to notice that? And or do conservative politicians now also believe that they have to let themselves be socialized under the green cloak of democracy? Because they`re fearing, in the public space, an outspoken moral devaluation from leftist green non-profit activists? I’m afraid YES! And hope that conservative freedom-loving heterosexual men and women, in every state, in our so called west, will put god, family, and/or our homelands, will lead on a profitable path back again!
Although I don’t have the faith about it yet…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Some Last Price Action News

US Stocks Remain Under Pressure
The Dow lost nearly 300 points and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq declined roughly 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, as investors digested a slew of economic releases while reassessing the outlook for monetary policy. US-based companies announced plans to cut almost 30K jobs from their payrolls in September of 2022, the highest in three months, as hiring is slowing and downsizing events are beginning to occur. At the same time, a report from the Labor Department showed that jobless claims rose more than expected last week. Still, while signs that the job market is cooling sparked hopes for a dovish pivot, recent hawkish remarks from several policymakers suggest the opposite. The Federal Reserve has been aggressively tightening monetary policy to reduce demand-driven inflation and will likely continue its patch until clear evidence of easing price pressures. Now all eyes are on the US job report for September for further clues on the central bank’s rate-hike path.

Euro Continues To Depreciate
The euro continued to weaken to $0.98 in the first week of October, moving toward a 20-year low of $0.95 hit on September 27th as investors doubt the ECB will be able to combat inflation while protecting an economy at increasing risk of recession. Policymakers pledged to keep raising rates even if economic growth gets compromised, the latest ECB meeting minutes showed. Markets expect the central bank to hike rates by large increments in the October and December meeting, but the pace of the rate-hike cycle next year could slow. The latest economic data showed retail sales in the bloc fell for the third straight month in August and updated PMIs indicated falling GDP, with the rate of decline gathering momentum over the third quarter. The winter outlook is likely to worsen even more if the energy crisis deepens.

European Stocks Cut Gains Ahead Of ECB Minutes
European stocks erased early gains to trade near the flat line Thursday, as investors await the release of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting accounts, while assessing the impact of higher oil prices on inflationary pressure.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48 Hours – Where I Was Wrong, Whre I Was Right

On Monday before two weeks we closed our 5 open 4XSetUps with a lost. Like our MSFT long trading capability (from 03/07/2022) with a lost of 41.26 $ (last price 244.74 $ as we went long at 285 $) at once. Our GBPJPY long trading capability (from last monday 09/12/2022) with a lost of 2.04 GBPJPY (last price 163.21 GBPJPY as we went long at 165.25 GBPJPY). Our VOW3 long trading capability (from last tuesday 09/13/2022) with a lost of 6.54 € (last price 145.46 € as we went long at 152.00 €). Like our LVMH long trading capability (from last wednesday 09/14/2022) with a lost of 12.4 € (last price 637.5 € as we went long at 649.9 €). And/Or last but not least also our GS long trading capability (from last thursday 09/15/2022) with a lost of 1.05 $ (last price 326.21 $ as we went long at 327.26 $). So we`re only long in the DXY and/or short in the UKOIL this week. But in these both trading capabilities at least with still an existing booking profit currently.

However, this week’s focus on the CBOT_MINI-YM1!
More in the Technical Anaylsis 4XSetUps once again every day, this week.