2022/10/05 (082) Column

„Hope hasn’t died yet
– not even in the case of the Russia/Ukraine war“


Hope for improvement helps most people through times of crisis.
Because the bleaker the prospects, the stronger hope makes you feel about it.
But if you don’t know the limits of hope, it can also harm you. And not only on us wallstreet, on the financial market, especially in derivatives trading (in the form of CFD`s). Because if hope is not based on competent action, it is always just an illusion. You only get out of it with luck, because fortunately external circumstances made it possible. What I grant to every single person from the heart! But what I don’t want to rely on, in most cases, as well as in the case of my participation in the financial market. That’s why basically always YES to hope, like to our beloved wife, my market guys. But always because of our actions.

The current overall picture on the financial market is complex.
Although I always assume that my colleagues, actually every fellow human being, want to beat around the bush instead of better informing myself when the word complex is used. But I’ll use it once, and hopefully never again, to try to pinpoint the impact of current international issues on the financial market. In any case; soft and/or hard factors are currently driving financial market price action: from algorithms and the mood-driven herd instinct to analyst opinions that are driving prices up/down. And/or up/down to hard factors such as the key interest rate, and or also inflation. Since the outbreak of the Russia/Ukraine war, over the last few months, over the course of 2022 so far, everyone can also observe a shift in emphasis: because sometimes the focus is on the pandemic, then it is monetary and interest rate policy, then and but even before that, there are the effects of historically high inflation and, finally, fears of a recession. For me, the Russia/Ukraine war is and remains the current political core of all problems in our so-called west! Even if inflation affects us personally more! That’s why I call inflation the greatest economic problem in our so-called West! Because if the military conflict were ended overnight through diplomatic solutions, the world could breathe a sigh of relief – including the economy and stock exchanges! Admittedly, inflation would still not come down in our so-called west, if I’m not wrong. But the relief would then be so great that we would feel temporarily immunized…

DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Some Last Market Price Action News

US Stocks Trade Lower After Strong 2-Day Rally
US stock stocks were trading lower on Wednesday with the Dow falling as much as 400 points and S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 1.6% and 2.3% respectively as strong economic data and speeches by Fed officials reduced bets that the Fed will soon start slowing the pace of rate hikes. The ADP report showed private business hiring was strong in September while ISM data showed the services sector grew more than expected. Adding to woes, yesterday San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, said the anticipation of cuts next year is misplaced and there is a high bar for slowing the 75-basis-point pace of hikes. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs shed more than 3%, after Atlantic Equities downgraded both stocks due to the potential of declining investment banking volume. Investors now are waiting for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data, for further clues on the Fed policy path.

Oil Prices Rise as OPEC+ Cuts Output
Oil prices surged nearly 1% on Wednesday, with WTI futures rising above $87 a barrel and Brent crude approaching $93 a barrel, on expectations of tighter supply. OPEC+ is set to cut oil output by 2 million bpd, the most since the height of Covid-19 lockdowns, and double the volume previously flagged during the meeting today. The move comes despite pressures from the US, with Washington arguing that economic fundamentals do not support an output cut. The cartel move follows a slide in oil prices prompted by a fall in global demand,but the output cut could have a smaller effect on global supply because several countries already are pumping well below their quotas.

DXY Gains Nearly 1%
The dollar index jumped almost 1% to 111 on Wednesday, following a 1.5% loss the day before which was its biggest one-day drop in more than two years. Bets the Fed will start slowing the pace of monetary tightening faded, with investors looking for further data to support a slowing economy. Still, the ADP report pointed into another direction to a robust job growth while the trade deficit continues to narrow in the US.

Russian Ruble Weakens To 2-Week Low
The Russian ruble depreciated to around $60, the lowest in two weeks, as investors worry that new sanctions could restrict access to foreign currency in Moscow. The European Union approved a new package of sanctions against Russia, including a price cap on Russian oil shipped to third countries and mechanisms to avoid circumvention of sanctions. The ruble recovered 60% since hitting a record-low of 150 in March, as strict capital controls and trade imbalances stabilized the ruble despite crashes in other Russian financial markets, as the Kremlin mobilized its population and moved to annex eastern regions of Ukraine. Higher commodity prices partially offset lower export volumes to keep revenues somewhat in check, while the plummet in imports due to sanctions limited Russian demand for foreign currencies.

Sterling Drops from 3-Week High
The British pound depreciated towards $1.1 from a three-week high of $1.15, after PM Liz Truss said the Conservative party will always be the party of low taxes, reiterating plans to cut taxes to stimulate growth. The sterling recovered from a record low of $1.03 hit on September 26th after finance minister Kwarteng said the government would not cut the top 45% rate of income tax for the biggest earners, reversing earlier pledges. On September 23rd, the government announced a mini-budget worth £45 billion by 2026-27 that included several tax cuts, making investors worry about the sustainability of the UK’s debt levels.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48 Hours – Where I Was Wrong, Whre I Was Right

On Monday before two weeks we closed our 5 open 4XSetUps with a lost. Like our MSFT long trading capability (from 03/07/2022) with a lost of 41.26 $ (last price 244.74 $ as we went long at 285 $) at once. Our GBPJPY long trading capability (from last monday 09/12/2022) with a lost of 2.04 GBPJPY (last price 163.21 GBPJPY as we went long at 165.25 GBPJPY). Our VOW3 long trading capability (from last tuesday 09/13/2022) with a lost of 6.54 € (last price 145.46 € as we went long at 152.00 €). Like our LVMH long trading capability (from last wednesday 09/14/2022) with a lost of 12.4 € (last price 637.5 € as we went long at 649.9 €). And/Or last but not least also our GS long trading capability (from last thursday 09/15/2022) with a lost of 1.05 $ (last price 326.21 $ as we went long at 327.26 $). So we`re only long in the DXY and/or short in the UKOIL this week. But in these both trading capabilities at least with still an existing booking profit currently.

However, this week’s focus on the CBOT_MINI-YM1!
More in the Technical Anaylsis 4XSetUps once again every day, this week.