2023/04/24 (217.080) Technical Analysis

The BITCOIN Future Is Still Looking Ugly, After Todays Trading Session
– But At Least On The Daily Chart We Bulls Defended A Candlestick Doji Today

Technical Analysis For This Week – Price Action Of The Past Few Days, From Today
It´s The Same Detail Overview Analysis And/Or Synthesis, Which I Wrote In The Week Before

In the short term, price action around 27365 as well as 28740 is crucial. Because within these two price levels, the BITCOIN future is traded within the bearish June ’22 GAP. Which at the time could not be recaptured. But on the contrary. In retrospect, from the perspective of the technical analysis, it was in fact one of the triggers for further selling pressure, until November 2022 lows at $14925. That´s why $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 are the medium-term price action targets to break out. Because an outbreak under $2535, after the price action since November low 2022, I would define as a failed medium-term trend reversal formation. So the bulls – and/or maybe we too (with this current 4XSetUps) – would have to admit defeat sooner or later. Because then an even deeper price action, at least from the point of view of technical analysis, just as I understand and also use it, should be forthcoming. On the other hand, a breakout to the upside – i.e. price action always above $32140 – should confirm the bull market since the November 2022 low in the medium term. Because then, looking back from a long-term perspective, we left a medium-term trend reversal formation, upwards. But that is future music – maybe for May 2023. Because the $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 on the overside are still a small handful of $1000 away. Which is why we should focus on $27365 as well as $28740 in day trading. So that if there is no above-average positive or negative news in the coming days and weeks, there may well be a technical battle of nerves; when it comes to the BITCOIN price action. The calm before the storm, if you will! Back towards 2000? Or is it finally over 30,000 again?

However, Let`s Get A Short Detail Overview About Todays Price Action In The European And/Or US Stock Market Also,
Because The Big US Tech Players Are Publishing Their Quarterly Numbers And/Or The European Banks This 16th Week 2023

After the recent gains, the Dax started the new week weakly. The leading German index closed 0.11 percent lower at 15,863.95 points on Monday. The MDax of medium-sized stocks ended up 0.05 percent lower at 27,728.77 points. There were no stimuli from the Ifo index on Monday. The mood in the German economy brightened further in April. In detail, however, the results were mixed. The approximately 9,000 companies surveyed rated their future prospects better, but thecurrent economic situation worse. There were no stimuli from the Ifo index on Monday. The mood in the German economy brightened further in April. In detail, however, the results were mixed. The approximately 9,000 companies surveyed rated their future prospects better, but the current economic situation worse. Market expert Thomas Altmann from asset manager QC Partners analyzed the Ifo index as showing that the recent sharp rise in share prices remains a very risky bet on the future. Market expert Thomas Altmann from asset manager QC Partners analyzed the Ifo index as showing that the recent sharp rise in share prices remains a very risky bet on the future.

European equity markets remained stable at a high level on Monday. The leading French index Cac 40 even climbed to a record high during the course of the day. All in all, however, investors were more reluctant to invest. They are waiting for the annual reports of four giant US technology companies, which are due later this week.

Before We Go Into A Detailed Overview Of Todays BITCOIN`s Future Price Action,
Let`s Get Know Todays Price Action About The USD Index, US10Y, And/Or US WallStreet

The dollar index steadied around 101.8 on Monday as investors continued to assess the outlook for the US economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Data released on Friday showed US business activity expanded the most in nearly a year in April, bolstering the case for further monetary tightening. Investors now look ahead to first quarter US GDP numbers and April consumer sentiment data this week for clues into the state of the country’s economy, among others. The Fed is widely expected to deliver another 25 basis point interest rate hike in May, though traders will be monitoring guidance on the future rate path. The ECB is also anticipated to raise rates further, but the market remains split on whether it would be a quarter- or half-percentage point increase next month.

The 10-year US Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, eased to around 3.5% as money flew into safe-haven government debt amid lingering concerns about Fed-induced recession late in 2023. Still-high inflation and a slew of hawkish speeches from policymakers prompted bets for another 25bps increase in the Fed funds rate next month. Investors now focus on critical economic data, including the US GDP on Thursday and the PCE price index on Friday, for further insight into the central bank’s future policy.

All three major US stock indexes swung between gains and losses on Monday, as investors refrained from opening new positions ahead of a busy week of tech earnings and economic data. So far, quarterly reports from corporate America have indicated that companies are holding up well against macro headwinds like persistent inflation and rising interest rates. Now, all eyes turn to mega-cap names, including Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, scheduled to announce their results later this week. At the same time, GDP figures for the first quarter will offer further insight into the Federal Reserve’s tightening plan. Meanwhile, Coca-Cola rose nearly 1% after the beverage maker topped Wall Street estimates on earnings and revenue following price increases. On the other hand, Bed Bath & Beyond tumbled over 30% after the home goods retailer filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.From The Technical Analysis Ponit Of View, As I Understand The Art Of Technical Analysis And Predicting,
In The Medium-Term The Psychological Price Action Marks Of $20000 And/Or $30000 Are Crucial For The Long-Term

„What goes up comes down again“, is a wisdom that can also be applied to the historical price action on the BITCOIN Ffuture.
And that especially for the period from the December 2020 to the June 2022. When the BITCOIN Future rose from $19800 to up to $65520 (April 2021), even $69355 (November 2021). To drop back down to $18760 (June 2022). Interestingly, if you look at the price action of the BITCOIN Future in monthly candlesticks, the price action traded in the form of a Gaussian bell, if you will! What is a Gaussian Bell? With a Gaussian distribution, also known as a normal distribution, the data form a bell curve. This means that the values are closer to the means than to the extremes. The Gaussian curve was named after the mathematician and physicist Carl Friedrich Gauss. So I’m asking myself the question, in terms of the BITCOIN price action, “Are we getting back to the mean above $30000?” And/Or “was that a historical aberration in terms of price action in bitcoin? So a deviation from normal price action, above $30000? Above $20000? Avove $10000?“

However, for our long 4XSetUp in the BITCOIN Future the monthly lows, above $30000, during the breakout from December 2020 to June 2022 are nonetheless decisive. Because if bullish investors got long above these price levels at the time, they are still making losses today. And should bearish investors then have went short still have a profit today. So that sustained daily price action, of days, weeks, months, above the January 2021, May 2021, June 2021, and July 2021 lows fundamentally changes the historical technical chart picture back to bullish. But as before, in terms of short-term process action, this is a topic of the future.

Long talk, short sense:
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $32140 – price action above confirms mid-term trend-reversal and/or suggests long-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $30100 – price action above confirms mid-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $28740 – price action above confirms short-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bullish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $28105 – price action under confirms mid-term trend-reversal false and/or suggests short-term bearish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $27365 – price action under confirms short-term trend-reversal and/or suggests short-term bearish
price action front lines of the bulls and/or bears are $25350 – price action under confirms mid-term trend-reversal false and/or suggests long-term bearish

That’s why I’ve tightened our stop price since this week – even at $2530.
Because after we all had to finish the last 3 4XSetUps with a minus, I minimize the risk a bit. And that also with the knowledge of the risk in the back of my head that the BITCOIN Future will then recover again. Speak rises! What if? Should this unexpectedly happen, then we will simply formulate a new long BTC1! 4XSetUp! And should the BTC1! then be traded below $25350 again in the medium and/or longer term? Then that was it with the BITCOIN Future! At least from my side. Because you know that I’m basically not a fan of the BTC1!. But on the contrary! To paraphrase Roubini: „…to me, the whole crypto space is one of assets that are not really money. They’re not really a currency.“But Independent Of My Fundamental Basic Opinion About The BITCOIN Future
Here Once Again My Current Technical Analysis About Today’s Trading Session

Caleb Franzen appeared out of nowhere in 2021 as a promising macro analyst who has great confidence in Bitcoin’s future. In a new analysis, Caleb Franzen expresses concern about Bitcoin’s near-term price action. According to the analyst, it is important for the bulls to reclaim the price of $27,820 as soon as possible as there is a key resistance line on the chart. On Twitter @CalebFranzen called it: „The green area: On April 18-19, Bitcoin started a minor nosedive, losing the $30,000 price point and quickly falling to its current price of $27200.“ The big problem for the bulls right now seems to be retaking the “green span” on Franzen’s chart, which lies around $27,820. If the bulls fail to reclaim this range and turn resistance into suppoit could be a difficult time for Bitcoin.

I have already formulated my short-term important price marks.
So in the end I just want and can add a compliment that this week $27595 can be important.
Because the BITCOIN Future was not (yet) trading much lower in April 2023, which is now coming to an end. Except for today’s trading day. And that is the crucial point. Because if last week’s red bearish downtrend continues this week, the bears should recapture $25350 faster than us bulls would like ti realize. Which would then, in retrospect, suggest a long-term sell signal. Because we would then have traded a medium-term false breakout trend reversal formation in retrospect. But nothing is lost yet! Because in the daily chart we bulls defended a green doji again for the first time…