2023/04/18 (213.076) Technical Analysis

BITCOIN Future Back Above $30000 Again
– Bulls Took The Helm While Todays Trading Session

In The Medium-Term The Psychological Price Action marks Of $20000 And/Or $30000 Are Crucial For The Long-Term

„What goes up comes down again“, is a wisdom that can also be applied to the historical price action on the BITCOIN future.
And that especially for the period from the December 2020 to the June 2022. When the BITCOIN future rose from $19800 to up to $65520 (April 2021), even $69355 (November 2021). To drop back down to $18760 (June 2022). Interestingly, if you look at the price action of the BITCOIN future in monthly candlesticks, the price action traded in the form of a Gaussian bell, if you will! What is a Gaussian Bell? With a Gaussian distribution, also known as a normal distribution, the data form a bell curve. This means that the values are closer to the means than to the extremes. It is a Gaussian curve. It was named after the mathematician and physicist Carl Friedrich Gauss. So I’m asking myself the question, in terms of BITCOIN price action, “Are we getting back to the mean above 30,000?” And/Or “was that a historical aberration in terms of price action in bitcoin? So a deviation from normal price action, above 30000? From over 20000? From over 10000?“

However, for our long 4XSetUp in the BITCOIN future the monthly lows, above 30000, during the breakout from December 2020 to June 2022 are nonetheless decisive. Because if bullish investors got long above these price levels at the time, they are still making losses today. And should bearish investors then have went short are still have a profit. So that sustained daily price action, of days, weeks, months, above the lows of January 2021, May 2021, June 2021, and July 2021 fundamentally changes the historical technical chart picture back to bullish. But as before, in terms of short-term process action, this is a topic of the future.

Before We Go Into A Detailed Overview Of BITCOIN`s Future Price Action From Today,
Let`s Revisit The Price Action Of The USD Index, The US 10Y Bond Yield, And/Or Even The US WallStreet

The dollar index fell below 102 on Tuesday, ending a two-day winning streak, as investors continued to digest the economic and monetary policy outlook, with upbeat Chinese growth for Q1 offering some relief over a slowing global recovery. China’s GDP expanded 4.5% yoy in Q1, beating forecasts of 4% and coming only slightly below the government’s annual target of 5%. At the same time, labour market data for the UK supported the pound, as wage growth came higher than expected. Meanwhile, the market still saw an 87% chance the Fed would raise its fed funds rate by 25bps next month. Also, solid corporate earnings results from major US banks allayed concerns about the banking crisis that plunged the sector last month.

The 10-year US Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, consolidated near a one-month high of 3.6% as investors ramp up bets for two more rate hikes while scaling back expectations for rate cuts later in the year. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin was among the latest policymakers to warn that more evidence is needed that US inflation is returning to the central bank’s 2% target. Earlier, Governor Christopher Waller echoed a similar view, leaning toward further policy tightening amid still-high inflation. Meantime, concerns about a potential US recession and further stress in the banking sector eased amid better-than-expected results from banking heavyweights, including JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of American, and Goldman Sachs.

Three major US stock indexes closed near the flatline on Tuesday as investors weighed the latest earnings releases while Fed tightening concerns remained. Goldman Sachs dropped 1.6% on reporting softer-than-anticipated revenue while Bank of America added 0.6% after topping Wall Street’s Q1 revenue and earnings estimates. Meantime, Johnson & Johnson fell 2.8% after reporting a net loss due to one-time charges related to talc liabilities and the spin-off of its consumer health business. On the policy side, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard was among the latest policymakers to favor continued interest-rate hikes to tame inflation. His Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic anticipates one more 25 basis point hike, followed by a hold at that level for quite some time. Meanwhile, US building permits and housing starts declined 8.8% and 0.8% last month, respectively, while Chinese GDP data pointed to a sharper-than-expected recovery.

Basically Technical Short-Term Price Action Areas And/Or Zones For This Week

In the short term, price action around 27365 as well as 28740 is crucial. Because within these two price levels, the BITCOIN future is traded within the bearish June ’22 GAP. Which at the time could not be recaptured. But on the contrary. In retrospect, from the perspective of the technical analysis, it was in fact one of the triggers for further selling pressure, until November 2022 lows at $14925. That´s why $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 are the medium-term price action targets to break out. Because an outbreak under $2535, after the price action since November low 2022, I would define as a failed medium-term trend reversal formation. So the bulls – and/or maybe we too (with this current 4XSetUps) – would have to admit defeat sooner or later. Because then an even deeper price action, at least from the point of view of technical analysis, just as I understand and also use it, should be forthcoming. On the other hand, a breakout to the upside – i.e. price action always above $32140 – should confirm the bull market since the November 2022 low in the medium term. Because then, looking back from a long-term perspective, we left a medium-term trend reversal formation, upwards. But that is future music – maybe for May 2023. Because the $25350 on the downside and/or $32140 on the overside are still a small handful of $1000 away. Which is why we should focus on $27365 as well as $28740 in day trading. So that if there is no above-average positive or negative news in the coming days and weeks, there may well be a technical battle of nerves; when it comes to the BITCOIN price action. The calm before the storm, if you will! Back towards 2000? Or is it finally over 30,000 again?

However,
Let`s Take A Short Overview About Released US Economic Data From Today Incl. Some News From Canada And/Or Germany

US Building Permits Fall More than Expected
Building permits in the United States tumbled 8.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.413 million in March 2023, partially reversing a 15.8 percent jump in February, a preliminary estimate showed. The number of permits missed market expectations of 1.45 million and remained close to December’s 31-month low of 1.337 million, indicating housing demand remained subdued due to higher interest rates and rising consumer prices. Permits for the volatile multi-segment tumbled 22.1 percent to a rate of 595 thousand, the lowest since last November, while single-family authorizations increased 4.1 percent to a five-month high of 818 thousand. Permits were up only in the Northeast (25.2 percent to 144 thousand), but were down in the South (-11.8 percent to 761 thousand), West (-16.5 percent to 314 thousand) and Midwest (-1.0 percent to 194 thousand).

US Housing Starts Slightly Higher than Expected
Housing starts in the US went down 0.8% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.42 million in March of 2023, following a downwardly revised 7.3% surge in February, but slightly beating market forecasts of 1.4 million. Starts in buildings with five units or more went down 6.7% to 542K while single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 2.7% to a three-month high of 861K. Starts fell in the Midwest (-23.6% to 133K) and the West (-28.1% to 258K) but soared in the Northeast (72.4% to 181K) and the South (6.8% to 848K).

Canadian Inflation Sinks to 19-Month Low
The annual inflation rate in Canada fell to 4.3% in March of 2023, the lowest since August 2021, in line with market expectations and dropping from 5.2% in the previous month amid significant base-year effects for energy costs. The result was loosely in line with projections from the BoC following its tightening pause, forecasting that inflation will return to 3% by the third quarter. The inflation rate sank for transportation (0.3% vs 3.1% in February), largely due to lower gasoline prices (-13.8%) as the base year started to include the initial economic impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The CPI also decelerated for food (8.9% vs 9.7%), due to lower prices for fruits and fresh vegetables, and shelter (5.4% vs 6.1%), as slower homeowner’s replacement costs (1.7% vs 3.3%) offset higher mortgage rates (26.4% vs 23.9%), in line with the BoC’s rate hikes. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged 0.5% higher, picking up from the 0.4% increase in February.German Investor Morale Unexpectedly Sinks
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany declined for a second month to 4.1 in April of 2023, the lowest so far this year, from 13 in March and well below market forecasts of 15.3. The reading now points to unchanged economic situation for the next six months, with experts expecting banks to be more cautious in granting loans while high inflation and the internationally restrictive monetary policy are also weighing on the economy. On the other hand, the current conditions index improved to -32.5 compared to -46.5 in March and forecasts of -40. Despite the improvement, the economic situation is still considered relatively negative. At the same time, earnings expectations for banks and insurance companies have improved and are once again clearly in positive territory, according to ZEW President Achim Wambach.

Anyway, Le Me Record It Again In A Detail Overview,
What This All Means Concret For The Price Action In The BTC1!

Chinese Economy Growing Faster Than Expected, Is It Good For Bitcoin? I Don’t Know!
But what I do know is that the Chinese economy currently seems to be benefiting greatly from the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. China’s gross domestic product grew 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2022, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The Chinese economy grew 2.9 percent in the previous quarter, this quarter was forecast to be 4 percent. Economists are currently divided on the need for government support for the Chinese economy. Incidentally, China does not have the same inflation problem as the West. In China, for example, the CPI was a paltry 0.70 percent last week. In this sense, China has more room to boost its economy. What is not a bad news for BTC1!. But let me stay honestly – vice versa – also not a reason to buy…