2022/11/10 (108) Technical Analysis – XETR-BNR & CBOT_MINI-YM1!

Our 4XsetUp Is Developing Better Than Originally Thought!
We`ll Let Every 4XSetUps Continue This Week Until The Weekend
– And Then Decide How Things Will Continue In DXY, UKOIL & GBPUSD Also…


Inflation Figures Excite Investors
– Today The US WalLStreet With One Of The Best Trading Days, Since Years!

The Dow Jones Industrial rose to its highest level since mid-August, closing up 3.70 percent at 33,715.37 points. The market-wide S&P 500 gained 5.54 percent to 3956.37 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 jumped 7.49 percent to 11,605.96 points. That was the strongest increase since March 2020.

Unexpectedly moderate US inflation data triggered price fireworks on the US stock markets on Thursday. Technology stocks in particular, which have come under selling pressure in recent months, were in great demand. Consumer prices in the US rose less sharply in October than analysts had expected compared to the same month last year. As a result, the markets are likely to be counting on the US Federal Reserve to slow down on the monetary policy brakes and ease interest rates again somewhat.

“Inflation is on a clear retreat course,” commented Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank. Fed Chair Powell has reason to take a deep breath. “If there are no further external shocks, inflation rates will fall even more noticeably in the coming year,” wrote Gitzel. For the Fed, the point at which it can refrain from further interest rate hikes is getting closer. The rally in technology stocks was led by heavyweights such as Amazon, up more than 12 percent, Apple up 8.9 percent and Microsoft up 8.2 percent. The papers of the chip manufacturers Nvidia and AMD each gained more than 14 percent and those of the software group Salesforce as the Dow leader a good ten percent. Against the strong market trend, Altria’s shares lost more than two percent as the bottom of the S&P 100 index. Analyst Andrei Condrea from the bank UBS lowered the share of the tobacco company from “neutral” to “sell” and justified this with a continuing downward trend on the domestic market. Added to this is the generally deteriorating economic environment. Beyond Meat shot up more than 20 percent. The meat substitute manufacturer’s quarterly loss fell short of expectations, but sales were higher than forecast. Ralph Lauren shares gained 5.8 percent. They benefited from the fact that the fashion chain had earned more than expected in the second fiscal quarter. The company increased its sales primarily in the Asian markets.Equity Markets Rally Also In Europe Today – US Inflation Unexpectedly Better Than Excepted!

The EuroStoxx 50 recently gained 2.7 percent. In New York, the leading index Dow Jones Industrial rose by 2.4 percent and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite even recorded a plus of 5.2 percent. Conversely, yields on ten-year government bonds fell sharply on the US bond market.

The partly euphoric reaction of the US stock exchanges to the surprisingly moderate increase in consumer prices in the USA has pulled the trading centers on this side of the Atlantic up further. The leading German index, the Dax, rose by 3.16 percent to 14,097.53 points by Thursday afternoon. The stock exchange barometer thus clearly moved upwards from the much-noticed 200-day average line, which is considered a measure of long-term development. The somewhat weakened rise in prices in October indicates that the US central bank, the Fed, will not raise the key interest rate by as much as it has already done so this year. Investors in technology and Internet companies were particularly pleased by this prospect, as high interest rates reduce the current value of the expected high profits in the future. Nevertheless, you assume that the prices in the financial market will not be as volatile due to certain election results in the USA. The market, i.e. all of us who deal (in)directly with the financial market, regardless of whether we (do not) have certain open positions currently in the market, rather expect the upcoming US inflation data. And of course without ignoring the midterms. More on that when the result is certain, then from my side, in a 4XSetUp Scenario special. What does this mean for the US? For the US Democrats? For the US Republicans? And what are the consequences for the US financial market? For the price action for stocks, in New York? For the price action for the US yield curve, in Chicago?

US Fiscal Deficit Narrows to $88 Billion

The US deficit stood at $88 billion in October, the first month of the fiscal year 2023, much below the $165 billion shortfall reported in the comparable period of the previous fiscal year. Individual income taxes increased from $143 billion to $175 billion, while corporate income taxes were slightly down. Defense spending increased from $65 billion to $73 billion, while outlays to the Department of Health declined from $120 billion to $87 billion. Additionally, outlays to theDepartment of Veterans Affairs and the Small Business Administration declined from $34 billion to $20 billion and from $2.3 billion to $290 million. Finally, payment on interest on Treasury debt securities increased from $19 billion to $47 billion.

US Stocks Soar Following Cool Inflation Reading

Major US stock indices accelerated into the close Thursday after the cooler-than-expected inflation print raised hopes that the Federal Reserve could slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings. The Dow soared about 1200 points higher and the S&P 500 added 5.6%, with more than 90% of stocks trading in the green. In the meantime, the Nasdaq 100 surged 7.5%, the most since April 2020. The data showed that annual inflation eased to 7.7% in October, slowing for the fourth consecutive month and below analysts’ expectations of 8%. Core readings also surprised to the downside, placing downward pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields and moving money markets to price the Fed’s terminal rate below 5%, with yields falling the most in one day in a decade. Consequently, policy-sensitive technology and growth stocks led the gains with Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Alphabet surging between 8-14%.