2023/03/23 (197.060) Technical Analysis

BTC1! Reached The Price Target Of 27365$, On Monday
– I Except Further Price Increases, That`s Why A New 4XSetUp This Week

Yesterday’s interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the subsequent press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell were received very negatively by the traditional financial markets, but also by Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin price briefly touched $29,000 before dropping to $26,600. The question arises, however, what has changed in the bull market for Bitcoin? The US banking sector continues to face unresolved issues, while Fed Chair Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have sent conflicting signals.

Bitcoin price above $27,600 as banking crisis deepens! Are BITCOIN bulls await next bank bailout?

The Fed voted unanimously to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). Not a single voting member of the Fed wanted to pause or cut interest rates.
During the press conference, Powell emphasized that further increases “may be appropriate” and must be decided “session-by-session” based on available data. Despite the collapse of the regional banking system, the Fed is not concerned – but these statements do not reflect reality. Just two weeks ago, the Fed was convinced that interest rates had to rise faster. The base case was a 50 basis point rate hike. If the banking system is as “healthy” as the Fed claims, why hasn’t it raised it by 50 basis points? Because, as he also noted, the current banking crisis is accompanied by a rise in interest rates due to the credit crunch.

Also interesting is that Powell and Yellen spoke at exactly the same time. As the Fed hiked interest rates, Yellen said the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will not guarantee all deposits, while saying the day before that it would consider guaranteeing all deposits. The US Federal Reserve and the US government seem to want to convey a picture that shows that the crisis is under control. In reality, there is still no solution. Meanwhile, Powell sent mixed signals, saying the Fed is committed to supporting banks but doesn’t expect any rate cuts this year. Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, described this mess on Twitter. Ackman slammed Yellen for yesterday withdrawing implied support for small banks and depositors while clarifying that system-wide deposit insurance is not being considered. We have moved from implicit support for depositors to Yellen’s explicit statement today that no guarantee will be considered while interest rates are now being raised to 5%. 5% is a threshold that makes bank deposits much less attractive. I’d be surprised if the outflow of deposits didn’t accelerate immediately. According to Ackman, a temporary system-wide deposit guarantee is needed to stop the bleeding of smaller banks. “The longer the uncertainty lasts, the more long-term the damage for the smaller banks and the more difficult it will be to bring their customers back,” said the well-known hedge fund manager.

But what does this all mean for the next BTC1! Price action?

For the bitcoin and crypto market today, it’s all about digesting the data. Basically, however, they came as expected.
Futures markets are now forecasting a 100 basis point rate cut by December, which would mean a total of four rate cuts since June. This is the Fed’s largest deviation from market expectations to date. As analyst Michaël van de Poppe explained, Powell did the obvious. “He needs to keep raising interest rates while he is going to build up the balance sheet to bail out the banks. The bitcoin is correcting and I think we will fall further. It’s not a good recipe for going bullish into an FOMC event.” Given the ongoing banking crisis, analyst @tedtalksmacro has a different recipe for Bitcoin’s success: “We’ll have to wait for the next bank to blow up before we get excited again,” adding, “The first interesting level down for me is ~25k, otherwise a 30k flip will pique my interest. Patience.”

Elon Musk and or Cathie Wood appalled by the FED decision!

The US Federal Reserve sticks to its target of bringing inflation down to 2% and hikes interest rates another 25 basis points to between 4.75% and 5%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the agency could see no rate cuts this year and could raise rates higher than expected if necessary. He also added that US banks are “solid”. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the FDIC will not offer “flat rate insurance” for all bank deposits. Prominent figures including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, billionaire Bill Ackman, former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan and Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood have criticized the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes amid the banking crisis. Elon Musk called the Fed’s decision to hike rates “foolish”. He claims it will exacerbate the flight of savers as people divert their money from low-yielding savings accounts to high-yielding money market accounts. Earlier, Elon Musk had warned the Fed of worsening market conditions and a banking crisis if the Fed hiked further. Bill Ackman also called on the Fed to suspend interest rate hikes in March due to the ongoing banking crisis caused by the shutdown of three banks by regulators and the Credit Suisse issuance.

In a renewed warning following the Fed’s rate hike and Yellen’s comments, he said the run on banks would continue, affecting lending rates and the US economy. It is also a “big mistake” that the Treasury Department is not considering expanding deposit insurance. Balaji Srinivasan claims that the US government is secretly printing trillions of dollars while raising interest rates. The Fed’s rate hikes are causing domestic banks to collapse and there is a risk of more bank runs. He claims that the BTFP, swap lines and “FedDIC” policy are designed to print money. The system will continue to attack cryptocurrency for its failures, but cryptocurrency is resilient.Cathie Wood reminded investors and the government on Twitter that crypto assets skyrocketed following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The 20-fold hike in Fed interest rates will result in regional banks and the holders of stocks and bonds being “wiped out.” TradFi companies and individuals are backing their fiat assets with some crypto assets. Meanwhile, regional banks are slowly moving from a liquidity crisis to a solvency crisis. Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes thanked Fed Chair Jerome Powell for the rate hike. Hayes claims that she will help him buy the Bitcoin dip and that he is becoming more optimistic about Bitcoin reaching the $1 million mark.

However, let`s get an overview about 10Y Yields price action on this monday,
because the fixed income securities are the historical counterpart of the BITCOIN!
And the BITCOIN Future only makes sense on financial narkets because of low interest rates! Or?

Government bond yields in Europe were down on Thursday, with the benchmark 10-year Bund yield falling around 12bps to 2.21%, after touching one-week highs in the previous session, as investors digested the latest monetary policy decisions and tried to assess the impact of further interest rate increases on the economies and the global financial system, following the recent turmoil in the banking sector. The Fed raised the fed funds rate by 25bps as expected but signalled only one more rate hike this year. Meanwhile, central banks in Switzerland and Norway moved forward with another rate increase. The BoE is also projected to continue its monetary tightening. Last week, the ECB delivered a 50bps hike in borrowing costs. Key 10-year bond yields in France, Italy, and Spain lost nearly 7bps to 2.78%, 4.12%, and 3.3% each.

The yield on the Swiss 10-year government bond pulled back below 1.2%, moving closer to a four-month low of 0.97% touched on March 17th, as policymakers in the US turned dovish boosting appetite for government debt. In Switzerland, the SNB raised its policy rate by 50 bps to 1.5% and said that additional hikes could not be ruled out. The central bank said that measures to support Credit Suisse had put a halt to the crisis. The Swiss government engineered a forced takeover by UBS, although AT1 bonds worth $17 billion, are set to be wiped out. Looking ahead, the central bank sees average annual inflation at 2.6% for 2023 (compared to previous projections of 2.4%), and 2.0% for 2024 (from 1.8). The Swiss economy is projected to grow by 1% this year, versus an increase of around 0.5% seen in December.

In addition, Elon Musk does not believe strongly in the Inverse Cramer Effect

Tesla, SpaceX and Twitter CEO Elon Musk recently poked fun at Jim Cramer in response to a tweet
from Dogecoin co-inventor Billy Markus. The billionaire explained: “The force is strong with the inverse Cramer effect”.The Inverse Cramer strategy is a trading approach that involves doing the opposite of what CNBC Mad Money host Jim Cramer advises investors to do. The strategy assumes that Cramer’s financial tips often fail. So by betting against his top picks, traders and investors can potentially see better returns. This tactic is so popular that a website called Inverse Cramer ETF has even been set up to track his predictions. It even trades publicly under the ticker SJIM, has an average volume of 43,150, 219,970 shares outstanding and total net worth of $100,000. In the 52-week range, the stock was valued between $24.70 and $26.26.

This approach has been successful before, according to an analysis by Seeking Alpha. Based on the data they compiled on Cramer’s predictions, it’s estimated that a $100 million investment over the past two years is worth $147.20 million today if the reverse Cramer was used on each of his investment recommendations over that period was followed. In January, for example, Cramer advised investors to invest in gold rather than cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. He justified this by saying that the world’s oldest cryptocurrency is not accepted as a currency or a reliable store of value. However, given the rising interest in cryptocurrencies from institutional and retail investors, some investors see this as a strong buy signal for Bitcoin and are betting against Cramer’s advice. So it is not surprising that the value of Bitcoin has increased from almost $23,000 at the time of our report to around $27,700. Following the announcement of the merger of UBS and Credit Suisse this week, bitcoin even climbed above $28,500 – a level not seen since June 2022. We don’t even want to get to the part where he advised investors to buy Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) stock earlier this February. At the time, he said the stock was “compelling” and “cheap” when it was trading at $320 a share. And now here we are.