2023/03/08 (186.049) Technical Analysis – … & NASDAQ-NDX

Indices Are Largely Recovering After Sharp Price Slides
– However, We Will Stay Short In The NDX Until Next Week, At Least


US Exports Rise to 4-Month High
While US Imports Rise for 2nd Straight Month
So That US Trade Gap Lower Than Expected to Kick Off 2023

Exports from the United States increased by USD 8.5 billion to a four-month high of USD 257.5 billion in January 2023, pointing to a slight recovery in external demand as inflation across the globe eased from recent peaks. Exports of goods surged USD 10.1 billion, boosted by sales of consumer goods such as pharmaceutical preparations, capital goods led by civilian aircraft and telecommunications equipment, and vehicles. Meanwhile, exports of services were down USD 1.6 billion thanks to a decline in travel and transport.

Imports to the United States increased for a second consecutive month to a three-month high of USD 325.8 billion in January 2023, suggesting there was a recovery in domestic demand as inflation eased from a recent high. Imports of goods were up USD 9.5 billion, boosted by purchases of consumer goods on the back of cell phones and other household goods, pharmaceutical preparations and toys, games, and sporting goods. Imports were also up for both vehicles and capital goods such as electric apparatus and telecommunications equipment. Imports of services edged up USD 0.1 billion, boosted by travel.

The US trade deficit increased slightly to a three-month high of $68.3 billion in January of 2023 from a downwardly revised $67.2 billion in December, compared to market forecasts of a $68.9 billion gap. Exports were up 3.4% to $257.5 billion, led by sales of pharmaceutical preparations, civilian aircraft, telecommunications equipment and passenger cars while a decline was seen for travel and transport. Meanwhile, imports rose 3% to $325.8 billion, prompted by purchases of cell phones, pharmaceutical preparations, toys, games, and sporting good, trucks, buses, and special purpose vehicles, passenger cars, electric apparatus, telecommunications equipment and travel. The US recorded trade deficits with China ($21.9 billion), the EU ($18.5 billion), Mexico ($12.2 billion), Vietnam ($8 billion), Japan ($5.6 billion) and Canada ($5.4 billion) while surpluses were seen with South and Central America ($4.8 billion), the UK ($2.7 billion), Australia ($1.5 billion) and Hong Kong ($1.5 billion).US Private Employment Growth Beats Forecasts: ADP

Private businesses in the US unexpectedly created 242K jobs in February of 2023, well above an upwardly revised 119K in January and market forecasts of 200K. The services sector added 190K jobs, led by leisure and hospitality (83K), financial activities (62K), education/health services (35K), information (9K) and trade/transportations and utilities (3K) while the professional/business industry shed 36K jobs. Meanwhile, the goods-producing industry added 52K jobs due to manufacturing (43K) and mining (25K) while construction lost 16K. Large establishments created 160K jobs and medium ones 148K while small-sized companies shed 61K jobs, a declining trend seen since August of 2022. Annual pay growth for those remaining in their jobs slowed slightly to 7.2%, the slowest in 12 months, from 7.3% in January. ADP noted that there is a tradeoff in the labor market right now as hiring remains robust but pay growth is still quite elevated.

US Job Quits Fall to 20-Month Low As US Job Openings Fall Less Than Expected

The number of job quits in the United States dropped by 207,000 from a month earlier to 3.88 million in January 2023, the lowest level since May 2021 and well below record peaks of 4.5 million quits touched in November 2021. Still, the number remained historically high, which could force businesses to pay more to keep their workers. Quits decreased in professional and business services (-221,000), educational services (-14,000), and federal government (-5,000). The so-called quits rate, which measures voluntary job leavers as a share of total employment, edged down to 2.5 percent from December’s revised figure of 2.6 percent and was down from a record high of 3.0 percent seen at the end of 2021.

The number of job openings in the United States fell by 410,000 to 10.824 million in January 2023 from an upwardly revised 11.234 million in December, compared to market expectations of a 10.5 million decrease. Over the month, the largest decreases were in construction (-240,000), accommodation and food services (-204,000), and finance and insurance (-100,000). On the other hand, the number of available positions increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+94,000) and in nondurable goods manufacturing (+50,000). Meanwhile, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.4 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits decreased to 3.884 million, the lowest level since May 2021, while layoffs and discharges went up to 1.7 million.

US Mortgage Rates Continue to March Higher While Mortgage Applications Rise for 1st Time in 4 Weeks

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased by 8bps to 6.79% in the week ended March 3rd 2023, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed. Borrowing costs rose for a fourth consecutive week, by a total of 61bps to fresh highs not seen since November, prompted by expectations the Fed would need to keep monetary policy restrictive for a longer period.

Mortgage applications in the US were up 7.4% in the week ended March 3rd, 2023, the first increase in four weeks, and rebounding from 28-year lows touched last week, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed. Applications to refinance a home loan jumped 9.4% and those to purchase a home loan were up 6.6%. Meanwhile, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) went up 8bps to 6.79%, a fresh high since November, and tracking a rise in Treasury yields. “Even with higher rates, there was an uptick in applications last week, but this was in comparison to two weeks of declines to very low levels, including a holiday week,” noted Joel Kan, an MBA economist.

US 2-Year Note Yield Hits 14-Year High As Dollar Hovers At 3-Month Highs on Powell Remarks

The two-year Treasury note’s yield increased to 5%, the highest since July 2007, and compared to a 2023 low of 4.03% hit in early February as traders anticipate a higher Fed terminal rate. In a hearing before the Senate, Chairman Powell stated that recent hot economic data might force the central bank to increase interest rates more aggressively and that the terminal rate may be higher than anticipated. As a result, investors pricing in peak rates of 5.6% from less than 5% at the end of last year.

The dollar index held above 105.5 on Wednesday, hovering at its highest levels in three months as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered a more hawkish outlook on monetary policy. Powell warned that the ultimate level of interest rates could be higher in light of stronger-than-expected economic data. He also said the central bank would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes if needed. Markets are now priced for a 70% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike in March, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, up from a 30% chance a day ago. The dollar scaled multi-month highs against all major currencies, with the most pronounced buying activity against the Australian dollar.

Technical Analyis 4XSetUp for this week…

Due to the current difficult economic situation in the USA, the currently self-organized US stagflation, the US democrats, under the watch of Sleepy Joe Biden, this “red hangman” not only fits into the technical picture of today. Because the US government is in debt as never before; and the Silicon Valley has never been so expensive, and retrospectively so incompetent; that I too am slowly losing faith in further higher prices, especially on the Nasdaq 100. Not that we misunderstand each other. Of course there are fute services and/or products from Sillicom Valley. No problem. But stocks of listed companies, at current prices, to buy again this week in such an economic environment? And such high interest rates? No thank you! At least not me! Therefore, it is better to put 12-month-long securities in the trading account at the house bank with a secure interest rate of around 5%. And that with 90% of your total portfolio value, so that in 12 months you will have at least 95% more or less of today’s portfolio value! That’s it!

Yes, that`s it – for the next 12 monats, at least! My response to the current US stagflation in the US. And the consequence, on US inflation. Which in turn was and is only the economic policy consequence of the green policy of Sleepy Joe Biden. Who, like Cain and his predecessor Trump, takes revenge – and makes the US taxpayers and also US consumers, US Americans, pay for it in the truest sense of the word! The ego of the two is not to be underestimated; as well as the pride of the Americans! That’s why I’m short again on the NASDAQ 100 Index! And please don’t take that the wrong way. Because there is nothing evil, let alone demonic going short; Not even on the Nasdaq 100. Because most services and products make sense when it comes to a financially rich life! But I don’t want to fool you! Most products and services are just too expensive. And that the US Americans will also want to do without services and products in the future and will still feel good, not even friends of the USA like me believe in that. Which is why the prices have to come down in the USA. Or else Joe Biden will disappear from the White House! Because more and more Americans, as well as non-Americans, especially Trump haters, and not MAGA members, are realizing that the policies of Donald Trump, the USA, brought 3 years of health, peace, security and freedom to the world had. In contrast to Joe Biden’s politics, who, like Cain, tried to keep Abel small. But we already had that; I don’t want to repeat myself at this point regarding.

Today, on wednesday, WallStreet struggles for direction.
All three major US stock indexes swung between gains and losses on Wednesday afternoon, as hot employment data reinforced the view of a higher-for-longer outlook for interest rates. The latest ADP and JOLTs Job figures report showed a still-tight US labor market, underpinning convictions that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening may be far from over. On the policy side, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the central bank would likely need to raise rates more than expected in response to recent hotter-than-expected employment and inflation data. Meanwhile, Tesla fell more than 3% after Berenberg downgraded the stock to “hold. By the way, UnitedHealth decreased to a 4-week low of 471.88 like Tesla to a 4-week low of 183.8 also.