2022/12/18 (128) Technical Analysis

The 2nd Week In A Row Since 2021/09/10 Whole Trading Days Above 200SMA
– That`s Why Bulls Have To Defend 1.20 GBPUSD Price Action Area Again!

In The Medium And Long Term, It Is Important
To Defend The Price Action Zone Between 1.1950 GBPUSD And/Or 1.414 GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1.4114 is a key technical as GBPUSD 1.414 marked the low during the early 2020 Corona virus outbreak. Vice Versa the provisional high at that time in the USD – just as a liquid parking opportunity (due to the shutdown of most economies in our so-called West). Personally, however, I perceive the 1.1950 GBPUSD price action area as even more important. Although I occasionally passionately like to discuss and/or argue about it with other colleagues, technical analysis nerds. And who now seem to be even more gifted Technical Analysts than I – which you’ve picked up most of the 4XSetUps from. But let that go – and come back to the 1.20 GBPUSD. Yes, to GBPUSD 1.20 – as on the one hand it is an important psychological price level. Even if it reads boring and unexciting – I know, for free! But I feel the focus on the 1.20 GBPUSD mark is all the more competent, since the GBPUSD exchange rate pair, in its more than 100-year history, was only traded during the Corona Virus outbreak, and or also during the departure of the last Prime Minister Boris Johnson . As well as rather during the line of succession to the royal family of the United Kingdom. As Queen Elizabeth II passed away on 09/08/2022. And since Charles III, of the House of Windsor, King of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and 14 other sovereign states, including their territories and dependent areas, known as the Commonwealth Realms, has been king. He is also head of the 56-state Commonwealth of Nations, liege lord of the British Crown Dependencies, secular head of the Anglican State Church and Commander-in-Chief of the British Armed Forces. So, if you will, a historical exception as far as GBPUSD is concerned around the 1.20 price action area. A historical volatile standard deviation, if you will. Which should sooner or later be found again in its own historical average value. Which in our case is medium term (just since 2017 more or less 1.28 GBPUSD). In the long term even GBPUSD 1,525 (just since the lows of 2008, after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers Bank in the USA and the financing crisis that has followed since).

Due to the current new old situation, namely the fact that the majority of other financial market participants, i.e. de facto the market, are assuming an impending US recession, and US WallStreet has therefore not risen in the last few days and weeks, I have getting cold feet. And tightened our stop price to 1.20 GBPUSD. I hope that it will not be realized around Christmas and New year! And if so? Then, sooner or later, anyway, I’ll write a new (old) GBPUS 4XSetUp…Very Important Price Action Areas
For The Next Days, Weeks And/Or Months

The GBPUSD exchange rate pair lost just over 36 percent from November 2007 into January 2009 – from 2.1161 GBPUSD until to 1.3504 GBPUSD. And has since traded more or less in a major historical flat trend channel between 1.7043 GBPUSD & 1.3504 GBPUSD. It was only in the year 2016 that the GBPUSD exchange rate pair traded below 1.3504 GBPUSD – but rallied several times back to as highs as 1.40 GBPUSD in 2018 and/or 2021 – before the selling off started since May 2021.

1.2800 4XSetUp @ Target Price

1.2667 05/27/2022 resistance line above
old new historical lows

1.2293 08/01/2022 resistance line around
old new historical lows

1.2156 05/13/2022 support line above
old new historical lows

1.1950 10/07/2016 new historical low 2016

1.1760 07/14/2022 support line around
old new historical lows

1.1414 03/20/2020 new historical low 2020

1.1278 10/24/2022 4XSetUp @ Entry Price

1.1061 10/21/2022 support line under
old new historical lows

1.0924 10/12/2022 support line under
old new historical lows

1.0924 4XSetUp @ Stop Price

1.0354 09/26/2022 new historical low 2022

And it is precisely from this downward trend that the important price action areas mentioned here arise. Of course, we can also go into more detail as far as technical price action areas are concerned, but we do that in each next DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Online Newspaper Edition. Because, after the us dollar, in this year 2022, as expected but in retrospect faster and/or much more developed expensively than originally thought, we are trying this 4XSetUp trading capabiliyt with the GBP this time. But always taking into account that the USD is yielding a little, due to the brilliant development – just anbivalent vica versa GBPUSD is recovering! How far? We will experience that!DXY Pares Gains Last Week, While Euro Hits Fresh 6-Month High

The dollar pared some gains to trade just above 104 on Thursday, after retail sales data came much worse than expected as stubbornly high inflation and tight financial conditions hit consumer demand. The dollar recovered from six-month lows in the previous session as the Federal Reserve delivered a more moderate half percentage point rate hike in a widely expected move, but signaled that the fed funds rate could peak higher than anticipated in 2023. The central bank projected rates would end at 5.1% next year before being lowered to 4.1% in 2024, higher than previously indicated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the size of future rate increases would depend on incoming data, but warned that the Fed still has some ways to go in its tightening campaign. Median forecasts for US GDP growth were also revised sharply lower to 0.5% in 2023 from 1.2%, while the unemployment rate was revised to 4.6% from 4.4%, pressuring the dollar further.

The euro rose to $1.07 on Thursday, the highest since early June, after ECB Chief Christine Lagarde signaled at the press conference that the central bank will continue hiking interest rates at a 50 basis point by a longer than previously expected period. The ECB raised rates by 50 bps as expected and said rates would need to continue to rise significantly at a steady pace to tackle inflation. Elsewhere, the US Federal Reserve has also delivered a 50 bps interest rate hike, pushing borrowing costs to the highest level since 2007 and hinting at a rate peak of 5.1% next year, above previous projections.

US Stocks Fall for 2nd Week And/Or FTSE 100 Extends Losses, Posts Second Weekly Decline Also

US equities closed lower on Friday, notching a second consecutive week of losses as fears mounted that aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could tip the world’s largest economy into a recession. The Dow was down 282 points while the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and Nasdaq Composite shed almost 1%. For the week, all three major US stock indexes were down over 1%. Stocks have been under heavy pressure since Wednesday after the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its commitment to raise interest rates further and keep them higher for longer. Adding to the gloomy outlook was a sharper-than-expected decline in business activity in December as new orders sank to the lowest level in just over 2-1/2 years. On the positive side, Facebook parent Meta Platforms jumped more than 4% after J.P. Morgan upgraded the stock to “overweight” from “neutral.”
Equities in London dropped for a third consecutive session on Friday, with the blue-chip FTSE 100 finishing around 7,330 points, dragged by real estate and utility stocks. Sentiment remained dominated by worries about the impact of more interest rate hikes to tame stubbornly high inflation on the growth momentum. The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by 50 basis points and indicated that the tightening cycle is far from done. Investors also reacted to a slew of UK economic reports, including weak business activity and retail sales data, which added to concerns that the country is heading for a deep recession. Unite Group and Ocado Group were among the biggest laggards on the index, down almost 5% each. The FTSE 100 fell roughly 2% this week, posting a second consecutive weekly decline.

UK 10-Year Bond Yield Edges Slightly Lower after BoE Like 10-Year Treasury Yield Too

The yield on the UK’s 10-year Gilt edged slightly lower to 3.2% after the Bank of England raised rates by 50bps as expected, although two policymakers would have preferred to leave interest rates unchanged. At the same time, the central bank reiterated that further increases may be required to bring inflation back to the 2% target. The latest CPI report showed the UK inflation rate slowed in November by more than expected to 10.7% from October’s 41-year high.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell back to under the 3.5% mark, approaching the three-month low of 3.4% touched on December 7th as projections of a sharp slowdown in the US economy drove investors to challenge the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals in its December meeting. The Fed delivered a 50bps interest rate hike to 4.25%-4.5% as widely expected, slowing from the four consecutive 75bps increases since June. Meantime, the Summary of Economic Projections pointed to sharp downward revisions to the US GDP growth and expectations of higher unemployment in the coming years, as policymakers increased projections for the Federal funds rate to reach and stay at 5.1% in 2023 from prior estimates of 4.6%.