2022/11/23 (117) Technical Analysis – XETR-FME & CBOT_MINI-YM1!

.FOMC Minutes Provide Relief Rally Today
– We Stay Long With New Old Stop Price From Last Week


Don`t Forget The New Stop Price Of Our CBOT_MINI-YM1! Long 4XSetUp Trading Capability Of Last Week,
– And That On The Intraday High Trading Day As US Inflation Data Of September 2022 Came Out In October 2022

Because while in October 2022 the us inflation data for September 2022 were higher than expected, the data for October 2022, in November 2022, were lower than expected. So that we can also raise the target price a bit. Because we can now calculate that the Fed will not hike your interest rate by another 75 basis points in December 2022. And that US inflation is falling more towards 7 percent – instead of back over 8 percent. However, I keep my distance from the NASDAQ because it is simply too technology-heavy. Because I would prefer the DOW JONES without APPL and/or MSFT! Who would have thought, I certainly wouldn’t, that I’d write this one day? But then only in relation to the current share valuation of both companies – whose products I still like to consume. But tech stocks are simply too expensive in the historical context, relative to other sectors, in this current economic and political environment! Or? That`s why i am focussing us on 4XSetUps in the CBOT_MINI-YM1! since the 2nd half of this year 2002 – after we made an huge profits with our short 4XSetUps trading capability in the NDX…

H on 2022/10/13 was 32789 points
O on 2022/10/13 was 32540 points
C on 2022/10/13 was 31212 points
L on 2022/10/13 was 31129 points
All dow jones stocknarket bulls now have to defend this loss-making trading day in the CBOT_MINI-YM1! in the short term in order to be able to continue to rise in the medium term. 34246 points are the first target and/or also 35413 points – until the first quarter of 2023. In this context, I am positive that we just broke out of this battle zone to the top last Thursday. And that on the trading day when the US inflation figures were published. That`s why I have just decided to raise the price target a bit – and or above all (and then also first) to tighten our stop price. Because I get cold feet when I think about the past – because we’ve already climbed so high and so fast. But my heart also warms when I imagine that the US inflation numbers for November 2022, which will be released in December 2022, will be lower again. And then shortly before the next scheduled FED meeting. On that day interest rates will hopefully only be raised by 50 basis points. This is the aim of this 4XSetUp. And or to put it in the words of my literary doyen George Soros: „Boom-bust processes are asymmetric in shape: a long, gradually accelerating boom is followed by a short and sharp bust. Consequently, most of the credit contraction can be expected to occur in the near term.“

Fed Considers Slower Rate Increases To Be Appropriate

A substantial majority of Fed officials judged that a slowing in the pace of the fed funds rate increase would likely soon be appropriate, as it would better allow the Committee to assess progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability, minutes from the November 1-2 FOMC meeting showed. Policymakers also noted that with inflation showing little sign of abating, and with supply and demand imbalances in the economy persisting, the ultimate level of the federal funds rate that would be necessary to achieve the Committee’s goals was somewhat higher than they had previously expected. The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 75bps to 3.75%-4% during its November 2022 meeting, marking a sixth consecutive rate hike and the fourth straight three-quarter point increase, pushing borrowing costs to a new high since 2008.

DXY Falls To Over 3-Month High While US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down To 1-Week Low

The dollar index fell more than 1% toward 106, the lowest since mid-August, as traders raised bets that the Fed would only hike the rates by 50 bps in December. The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed that a substantial majority of policymakers agreed it would likely soon be appropriate to slow the pace of interest rate hikes. During the last policy meeting, the Fed raised the rates by 75 bps to 3.75%-4%, the 6th consecutive rate hike and the 4th straight 3-quarter point increase, pushing borrowing costs to a new high since 2008. But now it appears that the central bank needs more time to judge the impacts of the hikes.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note dropped toward 3.7%, the lowest in a week after the latest Fed meeting minutes signalled smaller rate hikes ahead by the Fed. Money markets bet the US central bank will lift the fed funds rate by 50 bps in December, after four consecutive 75 bps increases. Minutes releasedfrom the Federal Reserve’s November meeting showed a substantial majority of policymakers agreed it would “likely soon be appropriate” to slow the pace of interest rate hikes. At the same time, the terminal rate is now seen at 5.03% in June. 

US Stocks Rise After Fed Minutes

The Dow added more than 100 points on Wednesday, and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were up 0.6% and 1%, respectively, after minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting showed officials see the case for a slower pace of interest rate rises. The November meeting minutes also showed that policymakers were growing concerned about the economy’s health but hinted at a higher terminal rate. Meanwhile, since that meeting, markets have parsed a slew of economic data that somehow reinforced the view of a 50-bps hike in December. US business activity contracted for a fifth straight month in November, with a measure for manufacturing dipping below the 50 mark for the first time since 2020. At the same time, weekly claims rose more than expected to a three-month high last week. On the corporate side, Deere & Co jumped 5% after the farm equipment company reported a higher-than-expected profit.