2023/05/11 (228) Column

I Am Not Writing Any Daily Colums
I’m Currently In Negotiations With A Financier Who Might Possibly Will Finance
Our Daily DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper All By Himself !?
That`s Why I Don’t Want And/Or Can’t Take Time To Write Useful Daily Columns In The Next Weeks …


The last D2D Edition, in the current format and/or design, will therefore appear on Thursday, May 11, 2023 for the time being. And then back again, regardless of my current negotiations, then at the latest from Sunday, September 03, 2021, again for all interested financial market participants. Whether in the same format and/or also affiliate partners or even a new individual financier !? I don`t know yet ?! We will – one way or another – experience this together from September 2023. So a big THANK YOU to all loyal readers – and until Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 at the latest. If you have any further questions, contact me at Devise2Day@gmail.com …DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Putin`s War:
“Invulnerable”? Bang!
Ukraine Shoots Down Russian Silver Bullet

The US Department of Defense has confirmed Ukraine’s launch of a Russian hypersonic missile using the Patriot system. The Ukrainians intercepted the missile with the help of the US air defense system, Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said on Tuesday (local time) in Washington. Ryder also confirmed the Ukrainians’ information that it was a Kinzhal-type missile. Russian President Vladimir Putin had praised them as “invulnerable” to Western defense systems.

On Saturday, the Ukrainian Air Force announced the successful launch of such a hypersonic missile. The Kinzhal (Russian: “dagger”), touted by Moscow as one of the best missiles ever, was reportedly intercepted over the Kiev region with the help of the US Patriot defense system. The extremely fast and high-flying yet maneuverable missiles have been used by Russian forces in the war in Ukraine since at least March, for example to destroy fuel and weapons depots.

In the fight against Russia, Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defenses are now armed with a number of the most modern Western weapon systems, including the US-made Patriot system. The system is known to be part of various anti-aircraft defenses provided to Ukraine by the United States and the international community, Ryder said. “The US and our allies, we will continue to deploy ground-based air defense capabilities and munitions to help Ukraine control its sovereign airspace and protect its citizens from Russian cruise missiles and Iranian drones.”DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

The “Fed Whisperer” Saves Wall Street!

Nick Timiraos, a journalist with the Wall Street Journal known as the “Fed whisperer”, stopped the sell-off in the US indices yesterday with an article – tenor: the US central bank will now probably stand still at the next meetings in June and July and then reassess the situation in September. This immediately stopped the sell-off on Wall Street after the markets had initially risen significantly shortly after the release of the US inflation data, but then sold off (the Dow Jones lost 550 points from the high).

Is Nick Timiroas, also known as the Fed’s “mouthpiece” (because he is occasionally supposed to communicate messages from the US Federal Reserve to the markets), correct in his statement? No US central banker has yet commented on yesterday’s inflation figures. Focus today on US producer prices (2:30 p.m.).

Banking Crisis Continues To Escalate – Recession Ahead!

The US banking crisis continues to escalate – and the longer this banking crisis lasts and intensifies, the more likely it is that there will be a recession in the USA. So far, however, the US stock markets have not priced in a recession because they are extremely focused on interest rates and want to celebrate the end of interest rate hikes by the Fed or even soon interest rate cuts.

But the Fed will only cut interest rates if either the banking crisis escalates further and/or the US economy falls into recession.

History shows that the stock markets then also fall – despite interest rate cuts. The reason: the risk premiums for loans are rising, liquidity is falling – and that’s also bad for risky assets such as stocks. Even today, it is again only a few tech stocks that have so far prevented a sharp sell-off in the US indices.Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

EURUSD Eases To 3-Week Low GBP10Y Holds Above 3-Week Low Gold Firms Up On Soft US Inflation Data Sensex Back Above 62,000 Mark
USDCNY Slips On Weak Inflation Data CNY10Y Down to 2.7% Brent Rises on Strong US Fuel Demand European Stocks Fall On Wednesday
Russian Stocks Close Higher
UK Stocks Extend Losses For 2nd Day
Wall Street Mixed After Inflation Data

Euro Eases To 3-Week Low
The Euro traded around $1.09, the lowest in three weeks and below an over 1-year high of $1.1, as investors try to interpret the latest inflation reports from the US and China. The Euro got a boost due to the US inflation rate slowing faster than expected, leading to hopes of a smaller interest rate gap between the US and the Euro Area. However, the lack of inflation in China has raised concerns about global growth, prompting some investors to seek safer currencies like the DXY. The Euro Area policymakers are expected to continue hiking interest rates until summer due to high inflation levels, while the US Federal Reserve is likely to pause its tightening cycle.

Chinese Yuan Slips On Weak Inflation Data
The offshore yuan weakened toward 6.95 per dollar, hitting its lowest levels in over a week after data showed that the consumer price index in China rose 0.1% year-on-year in April, the slowest pace since early 2021. Producer prices also declined 3.6% in April, the sharpest fall in nearly three years. The data suggested that more fiscal and monetary stimulus may be needed to boost the country’s economic recovery. Disappointing trade data released earlier in the week weighed on the currency as well, with China’s imports contracting sharply in April amid softer domestic demand, while exports grew at a slower pace due to easing global growth. Moreover, official and private surveys showed that Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in April.

UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Holds Above 3-Week LowThe yield on the UK’s 10-year Gilt was near 3.8%, above the three-week low of 3.615% reached on May 3rd after the Bank of England raised the key rate by 25 bps to 4.5%, the highest since 2008, and said further hikes may be needed if inflationary pressure persist. At the same time, growth and inflation forecasts were revised upward, while the increase in unemployment is expected to be lower than expected in February. Consumer prices rose by an annual 10.1% in March, exceeding the estimated 9.8%, while British wages grew faster than anticipated, pointing to a tight labor market. Meanwhile, the April PMI survey indicated that business activity growth in the country accelerated to a 12-month high, bolstering hopes that the economy may avoid a recession this year.

China 10-Year Government Bond Yield Down To 2.7%
The yield on the 10-year Chinese government bond has been decreasing since the beginning of the year and fell to 2.7% in May, marking a fresh six-month low amid further concerns about the health of the economy’s recovery. Fresh data showed that consumer inflation fell to 2021 lows and producer deflation worsened in April. Also, imports fell much more than expected, and new yuan loans were the lowest in six months, indicating that domestic demand remains subdued. Investors continue to wonder whether the authorities, especially the PBOC, will deliver further stimulus. At the same time, higher US Treasury yields prompted by the Fed’s tightening campaign have made Chinese bonds less attractive to foreign investors.

Gold Firms Up On Soft US Inflation Data
Gold prices steadied near $2,030 an ounce on Thursday, remaining in positive territory so far this week as the latest CPI report showed that headline inflation in the US unexpectedly slowed last month, supporting bets that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate hikes in June. The annual inflation rate in the US stood at 4.9% in April, defying expectations for no change and falling below 5% for the first time in two years. Money markets are currently pricing a 95% chance of a pause next month, while 5% expect another quarter-point rate hike. The metals also found support from uncertainties surrounding the US debt ceiling, as President Joe Biden piled pressure on Republican lawmakers on Wednesday to raise the $31.4 trillion debt limit or risk throwing the world’s largest economy into recession.

Brent Rises On Strong US Fuel Demand
Brent crude futures rose toward $77 per barrel on Thursday, recouping some losses from the previous session as EIA data showed that US gasoline inventoriesdeclined by 3.2 million barrels last week, exceeding forecasts for a 1.2 million barrel draw and suggesting fuel demand in the world’s top oil consumer remained robust. Meanwhile, the same report indicated that US crude stockpiles increased by 3 million barrels last week, defying expectations of a 900,000 barrel decline. Elsewhere, trade data from China showed that crude oil imports fell 16% annually to 10.6 million barrels per day in April, adding to fears of an economic slowdown in Asia’s largest economy. Analysts also remained skeptical that Russia’s planned output cuts will materialize.

Sensex Back Above 62,000 Mark
The BSE Sensex rose 99.5 points or 0.2% to 62,038.7 in morning deals on Thursday, extending gains from the prior session while staying at a near five-month high, lifted by gains from banking stocks, oil & gas, and realty. Traders were upbeat after Wednesday’s data showed that US inflation slowed to a near two-year low, which raise bets of the Fed policy rate pause. Foreign buying in India’s stock market also encouraged traders to buy riskier assets. Gains were limited, however, amid signs of deflation in China. Data from the Chinese statistics agency showed headline inflation fell to the lowest since February 2021 in April while producer prices shrank the most in almost 3 years. Adani Enterprise rose 4.2%, as the company’s board prepares to approve the proposal of raising funds. HDFC Bank gained 0.2% after Indian regulators granted its final approval for the proposed change in control of its subsidiary, HDFC Asset Management Company.

Russian Stocks Extend Gains
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.8% higher at 2,595 on Thursday, extending gains for the second session with solid support from banks and energy producers. Sberbank shares added 2.5%, trimming last session’s near 7% loss as investors piled onto the stock’s cheaper valuation after yesterday’s dividend cut-off. In the meantime, Surgut, Bashneft, and Lukoil rose between 3.5% and 2% to set the pace for oil companies, supported by expectations of stronger demand from top importer China following the release of the latest OPEC report. Gains were prevalent across all major sectors despite new data from the Finance Ministry showing that Russia’s budget deficit widened to a record high during the first four months of the year, as war spending lifted outflows and low energy prices limited revenues.

European Stocks Mostly Lower on Thursday
The DAX fell slightly on Thursday, and the benchmark Stoxx 600 was little changed as losses in miners were outweighed by gains in household goods firms. On the corporate front, ING Groep reported better-than-expected profits, Deutsche Telekom increased its guidance for 2023, and Thyssenkrupp raised guidance for free cash flow, while Bayer’s earnings decreased. VW shares fell by nearly 5% as activists interrupted the carmaker’s annual shareholder meeting to protest alleged human rights abuses at VW’s Xinjiang plant. Meanwhile, the BoE delivered another expected 25bps interest rate increase, revised up inflation and growth figures, and reinforced that further tightening would be required if inflationary pressures persist.

London Shares Close Thursday Marginally Lower
The FTSE 100 closed marginally below the flatline at 7,736 on Thursday as broad-based gains offset losses for miners while investors digested the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision and data pointing to slower producer inflation in the United States. The BoE raised its bank rate by 25bps, as expected, and delivered its biggest upward revision to GDP forecasts in the history of its Monetary Policy Committee, stating that the British economy is no longer expected to fall into a recession. On top of that, the bank prolonged its projections of elevated inflation, strengthening bets of more rate hikes to come. On the corporate front, ITV Plc lost 1.5% after the broadcaster reported a 10% drop in its total advertising revenue in the first three months of 2023. Miners also booked losses amid a sharp pullback for commodity prices, with Anglo-American, Glencore, and Rio Tinto dropping between 4% and 2%DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

It’s decision week – at least for this summer.
Because at the end of this week, early next week, thanks to new old US economic data, we will get an even better picture of the US economy. And maybe find a (new) reason to keep our open 4XSetUps running.

on Wednesday; US Inflation
on Thursday; US Producer Proces
on Friday; US Import Price
on Friday; US Export Prices
on Friday; US Trade Balance
on Friday; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

The current situation for the us economy and/or the stock market remains a great mystery for most of my writings colleagues – and full of contradictions. I have often said that most of my colleagues, who I mostly also like to read, secretly (un)wantedly (un)consciously prefer to present themselves rather than informing their followers. Please theirself as Jeopardy! Moderators about politics, economy and/or financial markets. Loosing theirself in “What About ISM” – like in an old enimen rap-song! If you know what i mean, of I am not wrong?

However, let it be as it may, in the last week there were lagging indications, such as the labor market, inflation, but also the service sector, which is still booming extremely due to the large catch-up effects due to Corona. On the other hand, the leading indicators have been pointing to an impending slowdown in the economy for some time – and not only in the USA. First and foremost the inverse yield curves or the Conference Board’s composite index of the American leading indicators LEI.

And that´s why I personally come to the mathematical and semantic conclusion, when I have correctly competently classified all the numbers & words about the us economy, that the US economy is in a better scenario than many reporters want us to know. But what sgould do traders and/or investors make of it? That’s another matter! What I analyze and evaluate for you every day – to hopefully inform you even better than my colleagues (without discrediting all other colleagues)…

                 Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our all still open 4XSetUps yet:

                 TradingView Symbol since entry         target stop

TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434         35228 31148
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299         17675 12586
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09         63583.07 52516.76
short TVC:UKOIL 2023/04/20 80.75         60.30 89.05

However, I Made Today The Decssion To Close Our Long Stock Markets 4XSetUps,
After Closing Bell – And That Just Only To Open A New 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities Too

Stock markets have overheated; and/or they heavier breathing at around the actuality price action. Don`t you think also? And that from day to day, if my senses don’t deceive me!? If I correctly classify the mood on Wall Street?! Anyway, based on fundamental valuation, and the economic policy environment, let alone interest rate environment, I think this year 2023 could actually be what we most colloquially say on Wall Street: “Sell In May And Go Away!” But without forgetting “But Remember, Come Back In September!”. I’m not assuming that things will be as bad as 2008. But I think a relapse, like last year 2022, to more or less last year’s lows is now more than possible. Which is why we are closing all of our long 4XsetUps as soon as possible. Because we have already made very good profits on the stock market this year with our 4XSetUps. If you put the overall development of the stock market next to it.

That´s why we`re closing our DOW Future at the last price, which is actuallity at 33595 points. And will close our long 4XSetUps in oir German DAX Future and/or indian SENSEX Blue-Chip stock market, with the 1st price action, on fridays trading session.

date entry target stop TradingView date closed profit
03/26 32434 35228 31148 long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 03/05/11 33595 +  3.58%
23/03/28 15299 17675 12586 long EUREX:FDAX1! 23/05/12
23/03/30 57960.09 63583.07 52516.76 long BSE:SENSEX 23/05/12

And that just only to get back into a new long US Dollar 4XSetUps.
But more about that on Sunday evening, in the upcoming D2D Edition…

                 TradingView Symbol since entry         target stop

long TVC:DXY 2023/05/11 80.75         108.09 100.00