2023/05/10 (227) Column

I Am Not Writing Any Daily Colums
I’m Currently In Negotiations With A Financier Who Might Possibly Will Finance
Our Daily DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper All By Himself !?
That`s Why I Don’t Want And/Or Can’t Take Time To Write Useful Daily Columns In The Next Weeks …


The last D2D Edition, in the current format and/or design, will therefore appear on Thursday, May 11, 2023 for the time being. And then back again, regardless of my current negotiations, then at the latest from Sunday, September 03, 2021, again for all interested financial market participants. Whether in the same format and/or also affiliate partners or even a new individual financier !? I don`t know yet ?! We will – one way or another – experience this together from September 2023. So a big THANK YOU to all loyal readers – and until Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 at the latest. If you have any further questions, contact me at Devise2Day@gmail.com …DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Refugee Summit In Germany:
Scholz & States Postpone Fundamental Decision On Refugee Costs

At a refugee summit in the Chancellery, the federal and state governments postponed a fundamental decision on permanently higher federal funds for financing the accommodation and care of those seeking protection. As can be seen from the agreement that the prime ministers met with Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) on Wednesday evening, the federal government will initially increase the refugee allowance to the federal states by one billion euros for 2023. This is intended to support the federal states in further relieving their municipalities and in financing the digitization of the immigration authorities.

The participants of the meeting stated that there was agreement that coping with refugee migration is a permanent task for the federal, state and local governments. Against this background, the federal and state governments wanted to clarify how the financing of this task could be regulated in the future. A decision on this should be made at a meeting next November. In the 1st four months of this year, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees received 101,981 asylum applications. This is an increase in the number of applications by around 78 percent compared to the same period last year. Since the beginning of the year, the main countries of origin have been Syria, Afghanistan and Turkey. Last year, around 218,000 people applied for asylum in Germany for the first time. In addition, the municipalities have to accommodate more than a million war refugees from Ukraine. They do not have to apply for asylum.

In order to enforce deportations more consistently, the federal and state governments have agreed to extend the maximum duration of detention from the current 10 to 28 days, said Scholz. According to the information, extended responsibilities of the federal police and an improved exchange of information between the judicial and immigration authorities were also agreed.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Inflation:
Are Stock Markets Waking Up From Their Coma Today?

Will today’s US inflation data finally wake Wall Street stock markets out of their coma? The trading volumes in the last two days downright underground, the US stock markets accordingly hardly changed in this period – is everyone waiting for the inflation numbers before they lean out the window?

Overall, the US stock markets have been moving sideways for months without a clear directional decision: they can’t go up, they don’t want to go down. Therefore, there is obviously no need for action for many market participants. And so the options markets are also expecting one of the smallest market movements in recent years in the context of the publication of US inflation data.

Stock Markets Nervous
– What Is The Fed Doing With Interest Rates?

The data on inflation in the USA exactly as expected (only the CPI for the same month last year at 4.93% slightly below the 5.0% expectation) – but the Wall Street stock markets are still reacting very nervously: what is the Fed doing with interest rates ? A pause in interest rates at the next Fed meeting in June has become more likely with today’s data.

However, based on today’s data, it has not become more likely that the US central bank – as the stock markets expect – will start cutting interest rates as early as September, but rather less likely: because core inflation remains at a high level and does not want to fall. On the Wall Steret, only the Nasdaq is stronger, while the Dax is weaker today in the wake of the Dow Jones.Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

British Pound Hits 12-month High US10Y Retreats After CPI Brent Crude Retreats on Wednesday Indian Shares Around 5-Month High
Russian Ruble Extends Rebound 4 Gold Extends Gains European Stocks Fall On Wednesday
Commodities Close To 1-Month Lows Russian Stocks Close Higher
UK Stocks Extend Losses For 2nd Day
Wall Street Mixed After Inflation Data

British Pound Hits 12-Month High
The British pound traded above $1.26, its strongest level since May 2022, as monetary policy divergence between UK and US become more pronounced after data showed inflationary pressures eased further in the world’s largest economy. The headline inflation rate in the US unexpectedly declined to a 3-year low of 4.9% in April strengthening bets that the Federal Reserve may be over with the tightening cycle. On the other hand, the inflation rate in the UK was at 10.1% last month, staying above 10% for the 7th consecutive month and remaining close to the 40-year high of 11.1% reported in October. As a result, UK policymakers are widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday and the market forecasts rates to rise further to around 4.8% later this year.

Russian Ruble Extends Rebound
The Russian ruble appreciated past the 77 per USD mark, extending its rebound from the one-year low of 82.1 as higher inflation backed the central bank’s warning that interest rate hikes may be necessary this year. Weekly CPI prints showed a marked increase at the end of April, raising fears that base effects are unable to maintain inflation at a low level for long. At the same time, the currency received respite from President Putin’s decree to narrow the official discount of Urals oil to Brent by $3 per barrel for fiscal purposes, set to raise levies for the state by an annualized RUB 600 billion. Still, the ruble remains lower year-to-date amid limited foreign currency inflows. Russian exports sank by 35% year-on-year in Q1, reining in previous hopes that the re-establishment of supply chains could bolster sales and demand for the ruble. Meanwhile, Moscow sold foreign currencies for the fifth consecutive month, as energy revenues continued to miss targets in April.US 10-Year Treasury Yield Retreats After CPI
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to below 3.5% on Wednesday as cooler-than-expected inflation data for April strengthened bets that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year. The annual inflation fell to 4.9%, under the market consensus of 5% to mark the tenth consecutive monthly slowdown. Also, the Federal Reserve’s closely watched core services metric slowed considerably on a monthly basis, as prices decelerated for shelter and fell for transportation services. In the meantime, investors continued to assess the stability of troubled regional lenders and rising tensions regarding lawmakers’ debt ceiling disagreement.

Brent Crude Retreats on Wednesday
Brent crude futures were below $77 per barrel on Wednesday, halting a three-day advance as an unexpected increase in US inventories solidified evidence of low demand, offsetting the dollar’s retreat after a cooler-than-expected inflation print. Crude oil stocks rose by nearly 3 million tonnes on the week ending May 5th, according to data from the EIA, defying expectations of a 900 thousand barrel decline and consistent with a previous report from the API. Elsewhere, trade data from China showed that crude oil imports fell 16% annually to 10.6 million barrels per day in April, adding to fears of an economic slowdown in Asia’s largest economy. The developments pared earlier gains from the week after the Biden administration said it canceled the sale of 140 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and added that it will purchase crude to refill the SPR later this year.

Gold Extends Gains
Gold climbed toward $2,050 an ounce on Wednesday, approaching record levels of $2,070 hit last week, after data showed that US inflation rate moderated further. Headline consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 4.9% in April, slightly below expectations, while core prices increased by 5.5% as expected. Fed funds futures traders are currently pricing in an 86% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its June meeting, and 14% odds of an additional 25 basis points hike. Gold is also being supported by economic uncertainties and renewed concerns over the banking sector in the US.

Commodity Prices Close to Over 1-Month Lows
The CRB Commodity Index rose above the 290 mark but remained close to over 1-month lows due to a weakening macroeconomic outlook. Concerns about subdued demand and looming recession persisted as interest rates remained elevated, while doubts on the Chinese recovery and the country’s ability to boost the global economy mounted, especially after the imports’ significant decline in April. In the energy sector, WTI crude was changing hands below the $73 per barrel mark. In the industrial sector, copper, considered a barometer for the world’s economy, dipped below $4 per pound. Meanwhile, agricultural commodities, which account for more than 40% of the index, resumed their upward trend on tight sugar and cocoa supplies but held below their April peaks. At the same time, gold prices hovered close to record levels due to a risk-off mood.

Indian Shares Advance to 5-Month High
The BSE Sensex pared morning losses and closed 180 points higher at 61,940 on Wednesday, the highest in five months, and carried by strong performances for banks and auto manufacturers ahead of the US CPI release after the closing bell. IndusInd Bank advanced 3% following the recommendation upgrade from UBS, citing stable operating metrics. Bajaj Finance and HDFC Bank added 1% and 0.5%, respectively, to set the pace for other lenders after troubled regional banking shares in the US edged higher. In the meantime, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra both closed in the green as crude oil prices retreated. On the other hand, tech shares pared back some of the gains from the sharp upswing in the prior session.

European Stocks Fall on Wednesday
European equity markets fell on Wednesday, with both the benchmark Stoxx 600 and the German DAX down 0.4% each. Food and beverages stocks were the main losers, down 1.4% while tech stocks advanced 1.3%. Investors digested the latest US CPI report, which showed inflation surprisingly continued to fall, compared to market forecasts it would stay unchanged, and raising bets the Fed has more room to pause the tightening cycle. Meanwhile, corporate results remained in the spotlight, with Credit Agricole beating earnings forecasts due to record revenue at its corporate and investment bank. Continental reported a 35% rise in earnings due to particularly strong sales in its automotive segment. However, Siemens Health’s quarterly operating profit fell 30%, and both profits and revenues from Spanish Fluidra declined.

Russian Stocks Close Higher
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index gained traction through the session and closed 0.8% higher 2,550 on Wednesday, as surges across all sectors offset the 6.5% plunge for Sberbank as its shares were detached from dividends. At the same time, commodity-backed stocks surged after trade data from China showed that business with Russia was considerably higher, suggesting that supply chains have somewhat started to adapt since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resulted in sweeping sanctions from the West. Oil producers rose 2.7% on average, with Bashneft and Transneft adding over 5%. Also, growth for Chinese iron imports carried Mechel and NLMK to increase by 5% and 3%, respectively. Other banks also advanced, with VTB and BSP adding 4%.

UK Stocks Extend Losses For 2nd Session
The FTSE 100 dropped 0.4% to 7,732 on Wednesday, extending a 0.2% loss in the previous session, led by an over 25% decline in Polymetal International after the company said it plans re-domicile to Kazakhstan from Jersey and delist from the London Stock Exchange. On the other hand, Melrose Industries shares soared by nearly 5% after it said it will continue as an aerospace company post the recent spin-off of its automotive unit, as its premium engines business supported revenue to grow by 19% in the first four months of the year.

Wall Street Ends Mixed After Inflation Data
The Dow Jones finished more than 30 points lower on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 touched August highs and added 1%, lifted by big tech names such as Amazon (+3.3%), Alphabet (+4.1%), Apple (+2.8%), and Microsoft (+1.7%). Investors weighed the fresh CPI report, which showed that headline inflation in the US unexpectedly slowed last month, increasing bets the data gives Fed some room to pause interest rate hikes in June. On the corporate front, shares of Airbnb (-10.9%) and Twilio (-12.6%) dropped after both companies gave a cautious revenue forecast for the second quarter. Additionally, Rockwell Automation was down (-2.8%) following reports that the Biden administration is investigating whether the company is exposing US infrastructure, military, and other government assets to potential cyber-attacks through one of its China-based facilities. Rivian advanced 1.8% on a narrower-than-expected loss.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

It’s decision week – at least for this summer.
Because at the end of this week, early next week, thanks to new old US economic data, we will get an even better picture of the US economy. And maybe find a (new) reason to keep our open 4XSetUps running.

on Wednesday; US Inflation
on Thursday; US Producer Proces
on Friday; US Import Price
on Friday; US Export Prices
on Friday; US Trade Balance
on Friday; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

The current situation for the us economy and/or the stock market remains a great mystery for most of my writings colleagues – and full of contradictions. I have often said that most of my colleagues, who I mostly also like to read, secretly (un)wantedly (un)consciously prefer to present themselves rather than informing their followers. Please theirself as Jeopardy! Moderators about politics, economy and/or financial markets. Loosing theirself in “What About ISM” – like in an old enimen rap-song! If you know what i mean, of I am not wrong?

However, let it be as it may, in the last week there were lagging indications, such as the labor market, inflation, but also the service sector, which is still booming extremely due to the large catch-up effects due to Corona. On the other hand, the leading indicators have been pointing to an impending slowdown in the economy for some time – and not only in the USA. First and foremost the inverse yield curves or the Conference Board’s composite index of the American leading indicators LEI.

And that´s why I personally come to the mathematical and semantic conclusion, when I have correctly competently classified all the numbers & words about the us economy, that the US economy is in a better scenario than many reporters want us to know. But what sgould do traders and/or investors make of it? That’s another matter! What I analyze and evaluate for you every day – to hopefully inform you even better than my colleagues (without discrediting all other colleagues)…

                 Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our all still open 4XSetUps yet:

                 TradingView Symbol since entry         target stop

TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434         35228 31148
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299         17675 12586
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09         63583.07 52516.76
short TVC:UKOIL 2023/04/20 80.75         60.30 89.05

However, I`m Just Starting To Think About It
To Close Our Long 4XSetUps In The Stock Markets Also
– But I`m Not Sure Enough To Write I Down And/Or Execute It

Anyway, Let`s Get An Oberview About The Price Action On WallStreet

The Dow Jones finished more than 30 points lower on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 touched August highs and added 1%, lifted by big tech names such as Amazon (+3.3%), Alphabet (+4.1%), Apple (+2.8%), and Microsoft (+1.7%). Investors weighed the fresh CPI report, which showed that headline inflation in the US unexpectedly slowed last month, increasing bets the data gives Fed some room to pause interest rate hikes in June. On the corporate front, shares of Airbnb (-10.9%) and Twilio (-12.6%) dropped after both companies gave a cautious revenue forecast for the second quarter. Additionally, Rockwell Automation was down (-2.8%) following reports that the Biden administration is investigating whether the company is exposing US infrastructure, military, and other government assets to potential cyber-attacks through one of its China-based facilities. Rivian advanced 1.8% on a narrower-than-expected loss.

US stock futures held steady on Thursday as investors weighed the fresh consumer price index report, while looking ahead to producer inflation figures. Futures contracts tied to the three major index drifted flat to positive. In extended trading, Disney, Groupon and Sonos tumbled on disappointing quarterly updates, while Beyond Meat, Robinhood and Unity Software jumped on better-than-expected results. In regular trading on Wednesday, the Dow shed 0.09%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained 0.45% and 1.04%, respectively. Seven out of the 11 S&P sectors finished higher, with communication services and technology leading the advance, while energy and financials lagged behind the market. The latest CPI report showed that headline inflation in the US unexpectedly slowed last month, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve could pause its interest rate hikes next month.