2023/05/09 (226) Column

I Am Not Writing Any Daily Colums
I’m Currently In Negotiations With A Financier Who Might Possibly Will Finance
Our Daily DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper All By Himself !?
That`s Why I Don’t Want And/Or Can’t Take Time To Write Useful Daily Columns In The Next Weeks …


The last D2D Edition, in the current format and/or design, will therefore appear on Thursday, May 11, 2023 for the time being. And then back again, regardless of my current negotiations, then at the latest from Sunday, September 03, 2021, again for all interested financial market participants. Whether in the same format and/or also affiliate partners or even a new individual financier !? I don`t know yet ?! We will – one way or another – experience this together from September 2023. So a big THANK YOU to all loyal readers – and until Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 at the latest. If you have any further questions, contact me at Devise2Day@gmail.com …DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

PUTIN’S PROPAGANDA PARADE:
Concern for security – President occurs at gun show

This Tuesday, Russia is celebrating the anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. As in the previous year, the celebrations will be overshadowed by the war of aggression against Ukraine.

Under high security precautions, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin is also to appear at the big military parade on Red Square in Moscow. He is expected to address the ongoing attacks on Ukraine for more than 14 months in his speech, which Russian propaganda portrays as fighting fascism like World War II.

Contrary to what was originally announced, foreign heads of state and government are now to be guests on the honorary stand – namely from the ex-Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Armenia.

In the past few days there has been repeated speculation as to whether the parade, in which more than 10,000 soldiers traditionally march and military technology is shown, will actually take place or whether it will be canceled for security reasons.

Only a few days ago, two drones had penetrated the Kremlin premises. They were able to be brought down by anti-aircraft defenses over the dome of the Senate Palace. Moscow holds Kiev responsible for the alleged attempted assassination of Putin. Ukraine rejects this and speaks of a Russian staging.

However, the traditional march “Immortal Regiment”, which is usually held after the parade, was canceled for this year in Moscow. According to media reports, the parades themselves have also been canceled in more than 20 other Russian cities because of the high security risk. In the last few weeks there have been attacks, particularly in southern Russia and on the annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Wall Street:
Banking Crisis and the Calm Before the Storm!
The banking crisis continues unabated as yesterday’s US lending data showed – yet Wall Street is downright apathetic at the moment. There are numerous factors that should ensure movement: for example the banking crisis, which will only be solved once the competition on interest rates has been eliminated. So the US Federal Reserve would have to lower interest rates – but they would only do so if something “bad” happened. But Wall Street wants interest rate cuts without anything bad happening – and that won’t work in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the danger of a correction for the stock markets increases because the best of all worlds is priced in and the valuations are therefore very high: so no recession in the US economy, but the Fed will still lower interest rates. That doesn’t go together – but what doesn’t really fit is currently being made to fit on the stock markets.

Before data on inflation:
Wall Street narrative faltering?
The optimistic Wall Street narrative goes like this: the Fed will soon cut rates because inflation will fall very quickly – but the economy still won’t go into recession, so the high valuations are somehow justified. Tomorrow is the fresh data on US inflation (CPI) – should it be higher than expected, the Wall Street narrative would falter violently! Weakness in the US regional banks again today, plus recession concerns after the miserable import data from China, hence slight losses in the US indices. Commercial real estate is likely to be the major crisis construction site in the next few months after the sharp rise in interest rates: in Sweden, the largest lessor of commercial real estate is threatening to collapse.Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

USDINR Falls from 3-Month High BRL10Y Edges Up Brent Slips Amid Market Caution Japanese Shares Rises
USDZAR Nears 3-Year Low AUD10Y Rises Rubber Hits 9-week Top Indian Stocks Hold Recent Gains
European Shares Book Losses
UK Stocks End Slightly Down
Wall Street Close Lower

Rupee Falls From 3-Month High
The Indian rupee weakened past 82 per USD, depreciating after testing the three-month high of 81.7 on May 8th, pressured by some momentary strength from the greenback and dovish expectations for the Reserve Bank of India. Lower food prices in April eased Indian retail inflation to a cooler-than-expected 5.7% in April, below the RBI’s target of 6%. This result removed pressure on the central bank to resume its tightening cycle after it surprised markets and held its key rate steady at 6.5%. To add, the sharp retreat in crude oil prices during the second half of the month supported expectations that retail prices will remain low, allowing the RBI to hold its pause for a longer period. Since the fourth quarter of 2022, the rupee has repeatedly fallen to its historical low of 83 before being rescued by RBI intervention due to an unbalanced current account and a comparatively soft monetary policy.

South African Rand Nears 3-Year Low
The South African rand changed hands around 18.4 against the USD, approaching a near three-year low of 18.6 hit on March 8th, as concerns grew over the impact of the prolonged power crisis on the country’s economic outlook. South Africa has been facing load-shedding for over a decade, with the situation worsening in recent years due to a combination of factors, including a lack of investment in infrastructure and maintenance, as well as delays in bringing new power generation capacity online. The power crisis has disrupted businesses and affected productivity, particularly in power-intensive industries like food production. Indeed, surging food prices have contributed to a sustained rise in annual inflation, which unexpectedly accelerated to 7.1% in March. As such, the South African Reserve Bank is expected to continue its hiking cycle, as it tries to rein in inflation and support the rand.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Wall Street:
Banking Crisis and the Calm Before the Storm!
The banking crisis continues unabated as yesterday’s US lending data showed – yet Wall Street is downright apathetic at the moment. There are numerous factors that should ensure movement: for example the banking crisis, which will only be solved once the competition on interest rates has been eliminated. So the US Federal Reserve would have to lower interest rates – but they would only do so if something “bad” happened. But Wall Street wants interest rate cuts without anything bad happening – and that won’t work in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the danger of a correction for the stock markets increases because the best of all worlds is priced in and the valuations are therefore very high: so no recession in the US economy, but the Fed will still lower interest rates. That doesn’t go together – but what doesn’t really fit is currently being made to fit on the stock markets.

Before data on inflation:
Wall Street narrative faltering?
The optimistic Wall Street narrative goes like this: the Fed will soon cut rates because inflation will fall very quickly – but the economy still won’t go into recession, so the high valuations are somehow justified. Tomorrow is the fresh data on US inflation (CPI) – should it be higher than expected, the Wall Street narrative would falter violently! Weakness in the US regional banks again today, plus recession concerns after the miserable import data from China, hence slight losses in the US indices. Commercial real estate is likely to be the major crisis construction site in the next few months after the sharp rise in interest rates: in Sweden, the largest lessor of commercial real estate is threatening to collapse.Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Edges Up
Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield was around 12.33%, up slightly from a six-month low of 12.13% hit on May 4th, amid expectations interest rates would remain high for a longer period. The minutes of the Brazilian central bank’s May meeting showed policymakers are staying cautious even after annual inflation eased within their tolerance range, saying they are “concerned” with expectations that consumer price increases will pick up again. Brazil’s annual inflation rate came in at 4.65% for March, returning within the Central Bank’s target range of 1.75%-4.75% for the first time since January 2021. The central bank held its key interest rate steady for the sixth straight time at a more than six-high of 13.75% on May 3rd, calling for “patience” on monetary policy as the disinflation process will be more gradual in coming months.

Australia 10 Year Bond Yield Rises
The yield on the Australian 10-year government bond rose above 3.4% after Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered a federal budget that indicated the Australian economy remains strong. The government has projected a surplus of AUD 4.2 billion for the year ending June 2023, which is the first surplus since 2007/08 and a substantial improvement from the AUD 37 billion shortfall forecast last October, helped by strong job growth and robust mining profits. Furthermore, the Treasurer announced billions in cost-of-living relief aimed at lowering power bills and consumer prices, which could help the Reserve Bank of Australia in its battle against stubbornly high inflation. Finally, the economy is expected to grow by just 1.25% in 2023/24, down from 3.25% this fiscal year. Earlier this month, Australian policymakers unexpectedly raised interest rates and issued warnings about the need for further tightening measures to combat persistent inflationary pressures.

Brent Slips Amid Market Caution
Brent crude futures fell below $76 per barrel on Tuesday, giving back some gains from the previous session as investors turn cautious ahead of key US inflation reports that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. Meanwhile, the international oil benchmark gained more than 6% over the past two sessions as fears of a recession in the US eased and the supply outlook remained tight. Stronger-than-expected US jobs and wage growth data suggestedthat the US economy remains resilient in the face of high inflation and rising interest rates. A round of voluntary cuts by some members of OPEC+ also begins this month, tightening the global market. Investors now look ahead to the US Energy Information Administration’s short-term outlook report on Wednesday and OPEC’s monthly outlook report on Thursday for some clarity on how the market may perform in the coming months.

Rubber Hits 9-week Top
Rubber increased to a 9-week high of 139.7 USD Cents / Kg, amid persistent supply concerns due to the weather conditions in top exporter Thailand. Meantime, hopes built surrounding a demand recovery from top buyer China as the economy reemerged from pandemic disruptions. Beijing recently announced it would make efforts to stabilize automobile and consumer electronics consumption and expand home appliances and green building materials consumption. Turning to data, Malaysia’s natural rubber production fell by 7.6 percent to 27,209 tonnes in February 2023 from 29,451 tonnes in the previous month, and by 2.7 percent year-on-year compared with 27,950 tonnes in February 2022. The International Rubber Consortium said that continued supply tightness is set to support natural rubber prices in H1 of 2023. Output is expected to drop in the major producing countries, including Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia, due to the spread of leaf disease.

Japanese Shares Rise in Broad Advance
The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 1.01% to close at 29,243 while the broader Topix Index climbed 1.27% to 2,098 on Tuesday, recouping losses from the previous session, with all market sectors participating in the rally. Still, investors remain cautious amid heightened economic uncertainties and the possibility of a global recession. Resource-related stocks led the charge on firmer commodity prices, with gains from JFE Holdings (14.5%), Nippon Steel (5.4%), Kobe Steel (5.6%), Inpex Corp (1%) and Eneos Holdings (0.7%). Other index heavyweights also advanced, including Kawasaki Kisen (9.3%), Tokyo Electron (1.8%), Sony Group (2.4%), Toyota Motor (3.3%) and Mitsui & Co (3.4%).

Indian Stocks Hold Recent Gains
The BSE Sensex closed flat at 61,760 on Tuesday, well below session lows but holding the five-month high from the prior session as gains for tech and metallurgists offset a mixed session for banks that ended on the downside. TCS shares advanced 1.3%, leading the advances for the technology sector after the hold recommendation from JM Financial.

European Shares Book Losses Ahead Of US CPI
European shares consolidated losses in afternoon trading on Tuesday as cautious investors awaited the highly-anticipated US inflation report, which could affect the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. The pan-European STOXX 600 and Germany’s DAX 40 both fell, with the former declining by 0.4% to 465 points and the latter dropping 0.1% to 15,945 points. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to tighten its policies further this week as the UK grapples with persistent inflation. In corporate news, Swedish landlord SBB postponed its dividend payment and cancelled a SEK 2.63 billion rights issue after a credit rating downgrade to junk status by S&P Global.

UK Stocks End Slightly Down
The FTSE 100 edged down about 0.2% to close at 7,764 on Tuesday, as investors returned from a long weekend marked by the coronation of King Charles III and focused on the upcoming US inflation report and Bank of England rate announcement later this week. On the corporate front, Unite Group was the worst performer, down 4.5%, followed by Ocado Group (-4.1%).

Wall Street Close Lower Ahead Of Inflation Data
The Dow Jones finished more than 50 points lower on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slid 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively as investors await an update on the debt ceiling negotiations and inflation data due tomorrow. The upcoming CPI report is expected to show inflation remained elevated with the monthly rate rising by 0.4% and the headline number staying at 5%. Meanwhile, President Biden is set to have a meeting today with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy aiming at breaking an impasse. Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said failing to raise the debt ceiling would be an “economic catastrophe”. On the corporate front, Palantir jumped 23.4% after reporting strong earnings.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

It’s decision week – at least for this summer.
Because at the end of this week, early next week, thanks to new old US economic data, we will get an even better picture of the US economy. And maybe find a (new) reason to keep our open 4XSetUps running.

on Wednesday; US Inflation
on Thursday; US Producer Proces
on Friday; US Import Price
on Friday; US Export Prices
on Friday; US Trade Balance
on Friday; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

The current situation for the us economy and/or the stock market remains a great mystery for most of my writings colleagues – and full of contradictions. I have often said that most of my colleagues, who I mostly also like to read, secretly (un)wantedly (un)consciously prefer to present themselves rather than informing their followers. Please theirself as Jeopardy! Moderators about politics, economy and/or financial markets. Loosing theirself in “What About ISM” – like in an old enimen rap-song! If you know what i mean, of I am not wrong?

However, let it be as it may, in the last week there were lagging indications, such as the labor market, inflation, but also the service sector, which is still booming extremely due to the large catch-up effects due to Corona. On the other hand, the leading indicators have been pointing to an impending slowdown in the economy for some time – and not only in the USA. First and foremost the inverse yield curves or the Conference Board’s composite index of the American leading indicators LEI.

And that´s why I personally come to the mathematical and semantic conclusion, when I have correctly competently classified all the numbers & words about the us economy, that the US economy is in a better scenario than many reporters want us to know. But what sgould do traders and/or investors make of it? That’s another matter! What I analyze and evaluate for you every day – to hopefully inform you even better than my colleagues (without discrediting all other colleagues)…

                 Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our all still open 4XSetUps yet:

                 TradingView Symbol since entry         target stop

TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434         35228 31148
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299         17675 12586
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09         63583.07 52516.76
short TVC:UKOIL 2023/04/20 80.75         60.30 89.05

On Sunday and/or Monday we started the checkout right away.
Because “no one has ever died from profits!”, as wise stock market veterans know.
That`s why we closed our long 4XSetUp in the ADIDAS share and/or BITCOIN Future. Today the EURUSD pair falls under the important psychological line 1.10 EURUSD area. Where we have placed our new stop price, meanwhile. So that we aren`t long in this long EURUSD 4XSetUp any more!

date entry target stop TradingView date closed profit

03/20 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935 long ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 05/09 1.10 + 4.13%

However, let`s get an short detail overview about Oil,
because the Commodity CRB Index, ist under pressure,
and we have in the UKOIL our only short Trading Capability

Brent crude futures fell below $76 per barrel on Tuesday, giving back some gains from the previous session as investors turn cautious ahead of key US inflation reports that could influence the Fed’s next interest rate decision. Meanwhile, the international oil benchmark gained more than 6% over the past two sessions as fears of a recession in the US eased and the supply outlook remained tight. Stronger-than-expected US jobs and wage growth data suggested that the US economy remains resilient in the face of high inflation and rising interest rates. A round of voluntary cuts by some members of OPEC+ also begins this month, tightening the global market. Investors now look ahead to the US Energy Information Administration’s short-term outlook report on Wednesday and OPEC’s monthly outlook report on Thursday for some clarity on how the market may perform in the coming months.