2023/05/07 (224) Column

I Am Not Writing Any Daily Colums
I’m Currently In Negotiations With A Financier Who Might Possibly Will Finance
Our Daily DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper All By Himself !?
That`s Why I Don’t Want And/Or Can’t Take Time To Write Useful Daily Columns In The Next Weeks …


The last D2D Edition, in the current format and/or design, will therefore appear on Thursday, May 11, 2023 for the time being. And then back again, regardless of my current negotiations, then at the latest from Sunday, September 03, 2021, again for all interested financial market participants. Whether in the same format and/or also affiliate partners or even a new individual financier !? I don`t know yet ?! We will – one way or another – experience this together from September 2023. So a big THANK YOU to all loyal readers – and until Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 at the latest. If you have any further questions, contact me at Devise2Day@gmail.com …DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

PUTIN’S WAR:
After Escalation!
Bloodhounds for Bachmut!
Wagner boss accepts offer

Russia has blamed Ukraine for the car bomb attack on the well-known writer Zakhar Prilepin, who is close to the Kremlin, and has spoken of a “terrorist attack”. Kiev did not claim responsibility for the assassination in which Prilepin was seriously injured on Saturday – but did not deny involvement either.

The head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, meanwhile specified his announcement about a withdrawal from the front in eastern Ukraine. The positions in the city of Bakhmut are said to be taken over by fighters of Chechen ruler Ramzan Kadyrov from next Wednesday.

Both warring parties also exchanged almost 50 prisoners again. And the International Atomic Energy Agency was alarmed at fears of hostilities near the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant.

Assassination attempt on pro-war Prilepin:
Moscow speaks of “terror”

According to the Foreign Ministry in Moscow, the investigation into the assassination attempt on the 47-year-old Prilepin has not yet been completed. “But it is already clear from the materials (…) that there is talk of another terrorist attack organized and carried out by the Kiev regime and behind which Western curators stand.”

When asked by the online newspaper Ukrajinska Pravda, a representative of the Ukrainian secret service SBU said that they would “neither confirm nor deny” involvement in such attacks. A Ukrainian partisan movement called Atesh had previously indicated that it was behind the attack. At first, however, it was unclear how credible this message was.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Bank crash, interest rates, Fed and ECB!
The banking crash at US regional banks continues unabated after Fed Chairman Powell described the US banking system as “healthy and resilient” yesterday and at the same time – like the ECB today – hiked interest rates by a further 0.25%. It is the high interest rates that have triggered the current bank crash – but yesterday the Fed boss downplayed the dramatic situation of many US regional banks and thus rejected any responsibility for it. Christine Lagarde, on the other hand, today with a hawkish ECB press conference: don’t think about pausing interest rates because inflation has been “too high for too long”. But markets believe neither the Fed nor the ECB, evident in the case of bond yields in both the US and the eurozone. The markets are telling the central banks: you will have to lower interest rates in the foreseeable future!

US bank crash: Fed will cut interest rates in July!
After the bank crash at US regional banks, the markets are now betting that the US Federal Reserve will (have to) cut interest rates as early as July! This contradicts what Fed Chairman Powell said at his press conference on Wednesday, when he spoke of a long period of high interest rates because inflation would not fall as quickly as markets expected. But the Fed is trying to downplay the bank crash and separate it from its interest rate policy – but this attempt is doomed to failure if things don’t calm down very soon. But last night’s data shows that another $47 billion has flown into US money market funds over the last week – suggesting that the outflows from US banks are continuing and the problem is growing worse. The only solution would be for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates quickly to eliminate “interest rate competition”. But do the US economic data give that? US jobs data today, next Wednesday US consumer prices.Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

Euro Back to Below $1.1 US10Y Rise Sharply Brent Crude Up 4% Indian Shares Close Week Lower
Swiss Franc Eases from 2-Year High Gold Falls More than 2% Russian Stocks Halt Selloff
Silver Hovers Near 14-Month High European Stocks Rise on Friday
FTSE 100 Rises 1%
Wall Street Rally as Fears Eased

Euro Back to Below $1.1
The Euro fell below $1.1 in early May as investors digested the latest monetary policy decisions from the ECB and the Fed, as well as fresh economic data. During its May meeting, the ECB raised interest rates by a smaller 25bps, slowing the tightening pace after three consecutive hikes of 50 basis points. Although tighter lending conditions have started to impact the economy, President Lagarde reiterated that the central bank is not pausing. Meanwhile, the Fed delivered a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate and signaled it could be the last hike. However, the latest payrolls report pointed to a resilient US labour market and economy, pushing the dollar higher.

Swiss Franc Eases from 2-Year High on Cool Inflation
The Swiss franc slightly depreciated to the 0.89 per USD mark from the two-year high of 0.88 touched on May 3rd, as cooler-than-expected domestic inflation trimmed bets on the extent that the Swiss National Bank will tighten monetary policy. Swiss consumer prices rose by 2.6% annually in April, the least in one year, and below market expectations of 2.8% as food and energy prices retreated. Still, SNB officials continued to signal that further policy tightening may be necessary to minimize the risk of second-round effects.

US Treasury Yields Rise Sharply Following Payrolls Data
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to above the 3.45% level, rebounding sharply from the one-month low of 3.35% touched on May 4th after strong labor market figures for April ramped up hawkish bets for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. More than 250 thousand jobs were added to the US economy, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% and wages grew by 0.5%, all tighter than expected, to momentarily reverse the trend of data that pointed to a softening job market. The data added leeway for the Federal Reserve to leave its funds rate elevated for a prolonged period. In its last meeting, the central bank raised its rate by 25bps and refrained from signaling any future rate hikes.

Brent Crude Up 4%, Set for 3rd Weekly Drop
Brent crude futures rose 4% to above $75 per barrel on Friday but were still on track for a third consecutive weekly loss, weighed down by persistent concerns that higher interest rates could slow the global economy and hurt energy demand. Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised their policy rates by 25 basis points this week, fueling fears that tightening financial conditions will push major economies into a recession. A surprise contraction in Chinese manufacturing activity amid weakening global demand also clouded the outlook for the world’s top crude importer. On the supply side, Russian crude exports jumped above 4 million barrels a day last week despite the country’s pledge to reduce production. This prompted speculations that Russia could be ramping up oil exports to maximize income for its beleaguered economy.

Gold Falls More than 2% from Record Levels
Gold prices fell more than 2% to below $2010 an ounce on Friday, after a stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report tempered the recession fears. The US economy added 253K jobs in April, above market expectations of 180K while wages grew the most in 9 months. However, the bullion reached a near record high level of $2072 an ounce this week as central banks around the world, and especially the Fed, are expected to halt rate hikes soon. At the same time, concerns over the health of the banking sector and the US debt ceiling weighed on investors’ risk appetite.

Silver Hovers Near 14-Month High
Silver futures hovered above the $25.8 per ounce mark, remaining close to the 14-month high of $26 touched on May 4th, tracking the strong momentum for precious metals amid dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve and renewed turmoil in the US financial sector. Bullion gained as investors fled out of regional banking shares after a group of lenders sought outside investment and raised fears of a second round of banking collapses, triggering a fresh flight to safe assets. Besides concerns of financial instability, recent signs of a slowing job market prompted investors to bet on multiple rate cuts by the Fed this year, which pressure the dollar and decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. The central bank hiked its funds rate by 25bps this month and refrained from signaling further tightening.

Indian Shares Close Week Marginally Lower
The BSE Sensex closed 700 points lower at 61,055 on Friday, retreating sharply from the four-month high touched last session and enough to close the week marginally lower amid the sharp declines for HDFC companies. HDFC Bank and HDFC both lost over 5% after MSCI stated it would include the merged entity of the two companies into its large-cap index with an adjustment of 0.5 instead of market expectations of 1, driving market players to estimate an outflow of $150 million from the firms. Tech shares also booked losses, with Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, and Wipro all losing more than 1%. Also, Tata Steel slid 2% amid concerning demand expectations for major Chinese constructors.

Russian Stocks Halt Selloff
The MOEX Russia index closed 0.5% higher at 2,540 on Friday, trimming sharp losses from the week as news that Russia’s National Welfare Fund grew by nearly RUB 600 billion in April eased concerns of fiscal risks for the Federal government. Still, recent evidence of poor energy revenues pressured the equity benchmark to close the week 3.7% lower. Revenues from oil and gas sales sank 46% annually in April, while poor demand from China and currency debates with India drove the Ministry of Finance to downwardly revise income expectations for May. Therefore, Moscow will sell RUB 40.4 billion of foreign exchange this month to offset the discrepancy in income expectations for the period, double what markets expected. Rosneft and Lukoil both dropped over 3% on the week, setting the pace for oil producers. In the meantime, bullion prices retreated from yearly highs after the release of tight labor data from the US, pressuring gold miners.

European Stocks Rise on Friday, Adidas Up 9%
European equity markets rose on Friday, with the DAX adding almost 1.5% and the STOXX 600 rising by over 1%, after the payrolls report showed that the labor market in the US remains strong, easing some concerns over a potential recession. Also, investors welcomed fresh corporate results. Adidas was the top performer on the DAX, gaining 9% after the company’s earnings topped forecasts, and it reported improvement in the Chinese market. Meanwhile, IAG forecasted that its 2023 profit would exceed its previous estimates, and Air France-KLM reported revenues that beat expectations. Bank shares were also higher, tracking a rebound in US regional banks. However, for the week, the STOXX 600 lost approximately 0.3% and the DAX was little changed.

FTSE 100 Rises 1%, Still Records Weekly Loss
London equities rallied 1% on Friday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 recovering from its recent one-month low to close at 7,780 points. The energy sector was the primary driver of gains, with BP leading the way, up more than 3%, buoyed by firm crude prices and a weaker dollar. Banking stocks also enjoyed a fresh wave of respite, with Barclays up almost 4%. In other corporate news, International Consolidated Airlines Group saw gains of nearly 2% after raising its full-year guidance due to increased travel demand. However, InterContinental Hotels Group declined 2% following the announcement that CEO Keith Barr will step down, despite the company’s strong quarterly results boosted by growth in China.

Wall Street Rally as Fears Eased
The Dow closed 540 points higher on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were up 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively, boosted by a sharp rebound in regional banks and solid jobs report that tempered fears of a recession. PacWest and Western Alliance rebounded sharply by 81.7% and 49.3%, leading regional banks’ gains after JPMorgan upgraded Western Alliance, Zions Bancorp and Comerica in a note and stated the three banks appear “substantially mispriced” in part due to short-selling activity. Also, investors welcomed positive earnings from Apple, pushing its stock up 4.7%. On the data front, the US nonfarm payrolls and wage growth accelerated more than expected in April indicating that the US economy remains strong, challenging the expectation that the Federal Reserve rate-hike cycle would end. On a weekly basis, the Dow and S&P 500 lost 1.5% and 0.9%, while Nasdaq gained 0.1% and hit its 37-week high.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

It’s decision week – at least for this summer.
Because at the end of this week, early next week, thanks to new old US economic data, we will get an even better picture of the US economy. And maybe find a (new) reason to keep our open 4XSetUps running.

on Wednesday; US Inflation
on Thursday; US Producer Proces
on Friday; US Import Price
on Friday; US Export Prices
on Friday; US Trade Balance
on Friday; US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

The current situation for the us economy and/or the stock market remains a great mystery for most of my writings colleagues – and full of contradictions. I have often said that most of my colleagues, who I mostly also like to read, secretly (un)wantedly (un)consciously prefer to present themselves rather than informing their followers. Please theirself as Jeopardy! Moderators about politics, economy and/or financial markets. Loosing theirself in “What About ISM” – like in an old enimen rap-song! If you know what i mean, of I am not wrong?

However, let it be as it may, in the last week there were lagging indications, such as the labor market, inflation, but also the service sector, which is still booming extremely due to the large catch-up effects due to Corona. On the other hand, the leading indicators have been pointing to an impending slowdown in the economy for some time – and not only in the USA. First and foremost the inverse yield curves or the Conference Board’s composite index of the American leading indicators LEI.

And that´s why I personally come to the mathematical and semantic conclusion, when I have correctly competently classified all the numbers & words about the us economy, that the US economy is in a better scenario than many reporters want us to know. But what sgould do traders and/or investors make of it? That’s another matter! What I analyze and evaluate for you every day – to hopefully inform you even better than my colleagues (without discrediting all other colleagues)…

                 Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our all still open 4XSetUps yet:

                 TradingView Symbol since entry         target stop

long ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545         1.1496 0.9935
long XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26            170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945         34455 25350
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434         35228 31148
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299         17675 12586
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09         63583.07 52516.76
short TVC:UKOIL 2023/04/20 80.75         60.30 89.05

At the beginning of the week, however, we make the checkout right away.
Because “no one has ever died from profits!”, as wise stock market veterans know.
That`s why we close our long 4XSetUp in the ADIDAS share; after the price target was already traded in on Fridays trading sessions. The BITCOIN Future closed at $29765 on Friday – and we also close this 4XSetUp on Monday, tomorrow, at the 1st price action. Even at the last price action at $29765. And thus secure our profits. Just as we also tighten our stop price on the EURUSD exchange rate to 1.10 EURUSD. So that, after some disappointing 4XSetUps recently, with losses taken into account, we can at least go into the summer of 2023, this May 2023, with a profitable feeling!

date entry target stop TradingView date closed profit

05/05 139.26 170.08 121.30 long XETR:ADS 23/02/12 170.08 + 22.13%

However, let`s get an short detail overview about the last price action in Gold,
because Gold is something like a contrairian USD Dollar, Anti System Insurance, like Bitcoin

Gold prices fell more than 2% to below $2010 an ounce on Friday, after a stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report tempered the recession fears. The US economy added 253K jobs in April, above market expectations of 180K while wages grew the most in 9 months. However, the bullion reached a near record high level of $2072 an ounce this week as central banks around the world, and especially the Fed, are expected to halt rate hikes soon. At the same time, concerns over the health of the banking sector and the US debt ceiling weighed on investors’ risk appetite.