2023/05/04 (223) Column

I Am Not Writing Any Daily Colums
I’m Currently In Negotiations With A Financier Who Might Possibly Will Finance
Our Daily DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper All By Himself !?
That`s Why I Don’t Want And/Or Can’t Take Time To Write Useful Daily Columns In The Next Weeks …


The last D2D Edition, in the current format and/or design, will therefore appear on Thursday, May 11, 2023 for the time being. And then back again, regardless of my current negotiations, then at the latest from Sunday, September 03, 2021, again for all interested financial market participants. Whether in the same format and/or also affiliate partners or even a new individual financier !? I don`t know yet ?! We will – one way or another – experience this together from September 2023. So a big THANK YOU to all loyal readers – and until Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 at the latest. If you have any further questions, contact me at Devise2Day@gmail.com …DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

PUTINS WAR:
After the drone attack on the Kremlin!
Now a new level of escalation is imminent

One day after the mysterious drone incident at the Kremlin in Russia, the background is still open. While US military experts suspect a sham attack staged by Moscow for tactical reasons, Russia accuses the US of being the actual client. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell expressed concern about a possible further escalation. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian port city of Odessa has become the main target of renewed drone strikes by the Russian military. During his trip to Europe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for Russia to be prosecuted for the war of aggression and war crimes.

Drone attack: military experts see signs of staging
According to international military experts, Russia probably staged two alleged Ukrainian drone strikes on the Kremlin itself. The Washington-based Institute for War Studies (ISW) wrote that several pieces of evidence indicated that the attack was internally directed and deliberately staged. According to the US think tank, Russian authorities have recently taken steps to strengthen air defenses. It is extremely unlikely that drones could have penetrated several air defense rings. The immediate and coordinated Russian response indicated that the attack was prepared internally in such a way that its intended political impact overwhelmed the embarrassment of hitting the Kremlin.

EU concerned about possible escalation after drone incident
“What worries us is that this can be used as justification for further attacks on Ukraine,” said EU foreign policy chief Borrell on the sidelines of a meeting of EU development ministers in Brussels. “We call on Russia not to use this alleged attack as a pretext for a further escalation of the war.”DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Next bank failure refuted Fed boss Powell: now interest rate break?
Fed boss Powell had hardly repeated his mantra at his press conference that the US banking system was “healthy and resilient” when the next bank collapse was imminent: PacWest Bancorp is considering “strategic options”, i.e. selling the bank or raising capital – the other bank failures in recent weeks had been initiated with the same wording. US regional bank stocks plummeted in after-hours trading yesterday, leaving everyone wondering who will be the next bank to fail. Did the Fed in the statement or Powell in his press conference yesterday announce an interest rate pause, as can often be read? No. The US Federal Reserve is leaving all options open – that disappointed the US stock markets yesterday. The Fed’s mistake is not that it raised interest rates too much – but that it left interest rates at zero for far too long and added fuel to the fire of inflation with its QE.

Fed: Will Powell admit loss of control from rate pause?
The markets are hoping that the US Federal Reserve and its boss Powell will announce an interest rate pause today and thus react to the turbulence of the US banking crisis. Although the passage in the FOMC statement “further rate increases are warranted” (further interest rate increases appropriate) should be omitted, Fed Chairman Powell should not be tempted to promise an interest rate pause because he would be taking options if inflation will remain high (the inflation data published next Wednesday will be +5.2% higher than the previous month’s +5.0% according to the forecast). In addition, if the US Federal Reserve admitted that it had gone too fast and too far with interest rates, it would in fact be admitting its loss of control, which the banking crisis actually caused. So Powell is likely to downplay the banking crisis and negate it as a factor in future rate cuts – although markets expect the first cut in September.Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

Yuan Gains on Dollar Weakness ITL10Y Rises After ECB Hikes Rates Oil Rebounds, But Outlook Still Bearish Sensex Closes at 4-Month High
Kiwi Maintains Upside Momentum DEU10Y Retreats Following ECB 6 Russian Shares Extend Decline
FRA10Y Rises After ECB Decision European Stocks Close Lower
FTSE 100 Closes Near 1-Month Low
US Stocks Slide on Banks Crisis

Chinese Yuan Gains on Dollar Weakness
The offshore yuan appreciated toward 6.90 per dollar, rebounding further from seven-week lows amid general dollar weakness, as the US Federal Reserve opened the door for a possible pause in its current rate-hiking cycle. The yuan gained even though a private survey showed Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in April, confirming official data released over the weekend and raising concerns about the strength of the country’s economic recovery. On the monetary front, the People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates unchanged for the eighth consecutive month in April to support the economy despite pressure from rising global interest rates.

Kiwi Dollar Maintains Upside Momentum
The New Zealand dollar strengthened for the fourth session to a three-week high of $0.6241 on Thursday, as the US dollar index declined for the third day to trade around 101 amid renewed worries over a credit squeeze due to fresh turmoil in the US banking sector and fears that the Federal Reserve would not pause the pace of rate hikes in the near term. Meanwhile, traders remained confident the hawkish RBNZ would lift the cash rate further in a meeting this month amid persistently high inflation. The central bank has delivered a total 500bps increase since October 2021. In other news, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins is expected to meet with his UK counterpart Rishi Sunak in London this week to develop Free Trade Agreement between the two countries. The deal could see New Zealand goods exports to the UK rise by over 50%.Oil Rebounds, But Outlook Still Bearish
Brent crude futures were trading around $73 per barrel, recovering slightly from an over one-year low of nearly $71 touched overnight, buoyed by some dip-buying strategies and a weaker dollar. Still, fundamentals in the oil complex remain clouded by worries of a demand-draining recession. Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised the rates by 25bps, adding to fears that tighter financial conditions will push major economies to contract. Moreover, the latest EIA report showed that gasoline inventories in the US unexpectedly jumped last week by 1.743 million barrels, indicating softening fuel demand. On the supply side, Russian crude exports jumped above 4 million barrels a day last week despite the country’s pledge to reduce production.

Italy 10Y Bond Yield Rises After ECB Hikes Rates
The yield on the Italian 10-year BTP rose to 4.2% in early May as the European Central Bank delivered its seventh consecutive rate hike, albeit with a signaled slowing pace of policy tightening. Eurozone policymakers increased interest rates by 25 bps, which is the smallest hike since the rate-lifting cycle began last summer. However, the ECB also suggested that rates would continue to be lifted as the inflation outlook remained too high for too long. In addition to the rate hike, the central bank disclosed plans to discontinue reinvesting cash from maturing bonds bought under the €3.2 trillion APP from July.

German 10-Year Bund Yield Retreats Following ECB
The yield on the German 10-year government bond fell to the 2.25% mark in early May, the lowest in over one month, after the European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 25bps, in line with most market expectations. The move marked the slowest rate hike in the central bank’s historical tightening campaign, as the central bank opted to address mounting growth concerns in the currency bloc despite soaring inflation levels. Recent economic data showed the Eurozone’s GDP only grew by 0.1% in the first quarter, falling short of market expectations. Germany, in particular, experienced stagnation as high inflation and increasing borrowing costs hit demand and activity.

French 10-Year Bond Yield Rises After ECB Decision
The yield on French 10-year OATs saw an increase to above 3.8% in early May, following the European Central Bank’s decision to ease the pace of its interest rate hikes as anticipated, while remaining open to future moves. On May 4th, Eurozone policymakers announced a 25-basis point increase, the smallest hike since the start of the rate-lifting cycle in July 2022. The ECB emphasized that inflation levels remain persistently high, necessitating continued vigilance. Additionally, the central bank revealed its plan to discontinue reinvesting cash from maturing bonds purchased under the €3.2 trillion APP from July.

Sensex Closes at 4-Month High
The BSE Sensex extended early gains and closed 550 points higher at 61,750 on Thursday, the highest in over four months, with strong support from banks and metallurgists as a batch of strong corporate earnings attracted a considerable inflow of foreign capital. The recent rout in crude oil prices significantly lowered Indian inflation expectations due to the high impact of energy prices on the country’s economy, strengthening bets that the RBI will not be forced to resume rate hikes and lifting foreign investment in Indian companies. Data from the NSE showed that foreign institutional investment rose by a net INR 95.5 billion in the last five sessions. On the corporate front, financials led the gains with Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, and the State Bank of India rising between 2.3% and 1.3%. Also, Titan Company advanced 0.6% after posting a 49% annual increase in profits ending in the March quarter.

Russian Shares Extend Decline
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.3% lower at 2,525 on Thursday, extending the selloff from this week as oil prices tested new lows and the Ministry of Finance released a batch of new budget data. Oil and gas revenues for the state dropped 46% annually in April. On top of that, the ministry downwardly revised forecasts of energy revenues for May and will sell RUB 40.4 billion of foreign exchange reserves to offset the income discrepancy expected for the period, double the amount that markets expected, and solidifying the perception that the recent dip in energy prices hurts the Federal Government’s fiscal health. Therefore, bank shares also moved lower amid fears of extraordinary taxation. On the other hand, gold prices tested record highs and lifted miners’ stocks.

European Stocks Close Lower After ECB Rate Rise
European shares ended the day in negative territory on Thursday, with the STOXX 600 falling by 0.4%, while Germany’s DAX 40 lost 0.5%. The dip in the market followed the European Central Bank’s decision to hike interest rates by 25 bps, a move that was widely anticipated, but also marked the first time the pace of the rate hikes was eased since the current policy tightening began last summer. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s hawkish remarks during the press conference following the decision suggested that the bank was not going to pause the rate-lifting cycle anytime soon. This decision followed a similar hike delivered by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

FTSE 100 Closes Near One-Month Low
The FTSE 100 fell to a nearly one-month low of 7,700 points on Thursday, with the industrials and heavyweight material sectors weighing down index. Lingering concerns about the possibility of a recession and financial stability continued to influence markets after the European Central Bank delivered another 25bps hike in a bid to tame inflation. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve had recently raised interest rates by 25 basis points and signaled a possible pause in its tightening cycle. Glencore was the main laggard on the index, dropping more than 6%, while Shell bucked the trend, rallying more than 1% on the back of strong recent reports.

US Stocks Slide on Banks Crisis
The Dow closed more than 280 points lower on Thursday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively, as worries about banking system stress and a possible Fed-induced recession lingered. Shares of PacWest plunged 50.6% after reports that the California-based bank has been considering strategic options, including a potential sale. Other regional banks also came under heavy selling pressure, including Western Alliance (-38.4%) and Zions Bancorporation (-12%). On the policy front, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday while signaling a possible pause in its tightening cycle. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s view that inflation remained a concern, creating uncertainty among investors regarding the central bank’s future monetary policy. Meanwhile, the ECB announced a widely expected 25bps hike while warning about further rate increases to address inflation.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

The largest bank in the US takes over the collapsed First Republic Bank in a cheap deal. For CEO Jamie Dimon, it wasn’t the first successful emergency operation – he was the rescuer back in 2008.

The largest US bank emerges as a big winner from the long weekend of the crisis. After intensive negotiations and a sometimes grueling auction, J.P. Morgan Chase won the bid for California’s ailing First Republic Bank on Monday. This should draw a line under the recent banking crisis – even if the Wall Street giant is even bigger.

The deal marks the end of another dramatic escalation in the banking sector. The First Republic, until recently a top 15 US bank, was among the US regional lenders hardest hit by the banking turmoil since March. In the wake of the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank in San Francisco and Signature Bank in New York, depositors had withdrawn en masse from smaller institutions. After the initial panic seemed to calm down, things initially looked good for the First Republic as well. But investors fled again last week after the bank announced that it had outflowed more than $100 billion in deposits in the first quarter – and that it was exploring new options.

It emerged as the winner of the auction process over the weekend, in which several other banks also participated. JP Morgen will pay $10.6 billion to the FDIC to take control of most of the San Francisco-based bank’s assets and gain access to First Republic’s coveted customer base. “Our government asked us and others to get involved – and we did,” said Dimon, who had already played a key role in the state-orchestrated sale of the collapsed investment bank Bear Stearns during the financial crisis of 2008, which was also in the course of a dramatic crisis weekends at J.P. Morgan left.

What this means for us,
who`re interested in the financial market price action?
Especially for all our open 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities?                 TradingView Symbol since entry         target stop

long ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545         1.1496 0.9935
long XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26            170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945         34455 25350
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434         35228 31148
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299         17675 12586
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09         63583.07 52516.76
short TVC:UKOIL 2023/04/20 80.75         60.30 89.05

That´s why let me just remind us all
how banks make money in the first place.
They make money from what they call the spread, or the difference between the interest rate they pay for deposits and the interest rate they receive on the loans they make.
They earn interest on the securities they hold.
They earn fees for customer services, such as checking accounts, financial counseling, loan servicing and the sales of other financial products (e.g., insurance and mutual funds).

And now comes the crucial point, which George Soros, my literary ego, described as Reflection Theory. The ambivalent relationship between traders and/or investors about the fundamentals and price action. Which, in his opinion and/or in my opinion, is always overrated or underrated. What we have to watch in the coming days and/or weeks! To realize if we us while these days at a price action bottom. But don`t undestand me wring; i`m not thinking about it (yet) to just declare another bull market on US Wall Street. But at least our 4XSetUps long positions don’t close – so stay long for the time being in the us american DOW Future, in our german DAX Future, and/or indian stock market, the SENSEX Index.

Which is why I want to take a quick look at the gold price again at this point. Which, if you like, also stands as an anti-cyclical indicator for the banking system, for the fiat money system.
To find out what kind of price action scenario we are currently in?

Today, Gold Hovers Near Record High on Fed Pause Bets
Gold held around $2,040 an ounce on Thursday, hovering near its highest levels on record as the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate hike but removed language from its policy statement that it “anticipates” further rate increases would be needed. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the committee’s current inflation outlook does not support the case for rate cuts.