2023/05/03 (222) Column

I Am Not Writing Any Daily Colums
I’m Currently In Negotiations With A Financier Who Might Possibly Will Finance
Our Daily DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper All By Himself !?
That`s Why I Don’t Want And/Or Can’t Take Time To Write Useful Daily Columns In The Next Weeks …


The last D2D Edition, in the current format and/or design, will therefore appear on Thursday, May 11, 2023 for the time being. And then back again, regardless of my current negotiations, then at the latest from Sunday, September 03, 2021, again for all interested financial market participants. Whether in the same format and/or also affiliate partners or even a new individual financier !? I don`t know yet ?! We will – one way or another – experience this together from September 2023. So a big THANK YOU to all loyal readers – and until Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 at the latest. If you have any further questions, contact me at Devise2Day@gmail.com …DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

UKRAINE WAR:
Drone attack on Putin?
Now the Duma chief is threatening nuclear weapons

Russia has accused Ukraine of attempting to assassinate Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin with a drone. On Wednesday night, two Ukrainian drones were intercepted over the Kremlin in Moscow, the Presidential Office said. Ukraine denied the allegation and suspected Moscow of “staging” the incident. Moscow described the allegedly attempted drone attack on the Kremlin as a “planned act of terrorism and an assassination attempt” on Putin. The President was unharmed and there were no casualties.

In response, the head of the Russian lower house, Vyacheslav Volodin, called for the government in Kiev to be “destroyed”. There could be “no negotiations” with Zelensky’s government. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called for the “physical elimination” of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “and his clique”. Selenskyj rejected the accusation from Moscow. “We didn’t attack Putin,” he said at a press conference in Helsinki, where he surprisingly traveled on Wednesday.

“We are fighting on our territory, we are defending our villages and towns,” said the Ukrainian president. He attended a summit of Nordic countries in the Finnish capital. The Ukrainian presidential adviser Mikhailo Podoliak also assured that Ukraine had “nothing to do with drone attacks on the Kremlin”. Such reports, “staged” by Russia, represented an attempt to prepare the way for a “large-scale terrorist attack on Ukraine” at the information level.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken strongly doubted the accusations from Moscow. He could not confirm the reports, said Blinken in Washington. However, he would “take everything that comes out of the Kremlin with great reservation”, he said.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Banking Crisis
– Markets are calling on the Fed to pause interest rates!
After the banking crisis reached a new level in the US yesterday, calls for the Fed to pause interest rates are growing louder (today, however, the US Federal Reserve is likely to hike interest rates again by 0.25%). But Fed Chair Powell has a problem, as a former Fed member (Clarida) explained yesterday: if Powell talks about a rate pause, the markets hear “stop” hikes and even rate cuts soon – the interest rate markets are expecting about that rate cuts as early as September. Next week, however, will be the new data on inflation in the US – and according to forecasts, they should be higher than in the previous month. The Fed head is therefore likely to keep all options open and avoid committing to an interest rate pause despite the banking crisis. That, in turn, is likely to disappoint equity markets – the dollar, on the other hand, looks strongly poised for a countermove to the upside.

Banking crisis escalates – US Federal Reserve in trouble!
Yesterday, after the takeover of First Republic Bank, JP Morgan boss Dimnon said that one could breathe a sigh of relief because the banking crisis was over for the time being – but only one day later the banking crisis was suddenly back: US regional banks crash and bring in the US Federal Reserve Fed now in an almost hopeless situation! Should it raise interest rates again tomorrow in order to actually make the “interest rate competition” of money market funds even more attractive and to further accelerate the outflows, especially from US regional banks? The alternative would be not to raise interest rates tomorrow – but then markets could panic: what does the Federal Reserve know that we don’t know? The choice now seems to be plague or cholera – and the US Federal Reserve is to blame for this, because it negated inflation for too long and then had to raise interest rates very quickly, triggering the US banking crisis.Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

EURUSD Edges Higher after Fed TRY10Y at Nearly 7-Month High Oil Holds Losses Around 1-Year Low Sensex Halts 8-Session Win Streak
GBPUSD Continues to Appreciate RUB10Y Ease in May Gold Rises Above $2,020 MOEX Extends Selloff
European Stocks Rebounds
FTSE 100 Closes Higher
US Stocks Close Lower

EURUSD Edges Higher after Fed
The euro approached $1.11 after the Federal Reserve delivered another 25bps increase in borrowing costs as anticipated but signaled it could soon pause the tightening cycle. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to raise interest rates for a seventh consecutive time on Thursday and continue with the tightening cycle for a bit longer. Inflationary pressures have decreased in the previous month, and the Euro Zone GDP only grew by 0.1% in Q1, with the German economy stagnating. Banks have also tightened their credit standards at the fastest pace in almost a decade, suggesting that a smaller 25bps increase may be more appropriate.

GBPUSD Continues to Appreciate
The British pound continued to climb to approach $1.26, a level not seen since June of the previous year, following indications from the Fed that it may pause its rate hike cycle soon. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates further, taking the base rate up by 25bps to 4.5% next week. Investors also see a 50% chance of borrowing costs reaching 5% by August. In March, Britain’s inflation rate remained above the 10% mark for the seventh month in a row, while the Markit PMI survey for April showed that UK output grew at its quickest rate in a year, indicating that the economy may avoid a recession in 2023.

Turkey 10-Year Bond Yield at Nearly 7-Month High
The yield on Turkey’s 10-year government bond climbed to 12.8% in early May, the highest since October last year, amid political uncertainty due to parliamentary and presidential elections in this month that take place with a serious economic crisis. Polls forecast a record voter turnout this year, and a tight race between Erdogan and the main opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu. Turkey’s demographics are also expected to play a role since most of the provinces struck by the February earthquake were strongholds of Erdogan. According to the Ministry of Finance and Treasury data, the economic impact of the earthquake has been staggering, costing the country an estimated 9% of the national income. Also, the TCMB held its interest rate steady at 8.5% in its April meeting, holding the 50bps cut from February to ease financial conditions following the country’s earthquake disaster. The annual inflation rate fell to 43.7% in April, the lowest since December of 2021, from 50.5% in March.

Russian OFZ Yields Ease in May
The yield on the Russian 10-year OFZ eased to 10.6% in early May, trimming the steady increase throughout the previous month as investors continued to digest the CBR’s policy outlook. Despite the aggressive slowdown in Russian inflation, the central bank flagged that future tightening may take place as the country’s unbalanced current account and labor force crisis ramp up inflationary risks. The 10-year OFZ yield is 35bps higher since the start of Q2, largely due to increasing fiscal risks to the Federal government. The country’s budget deficit came at a record-breaking RUB 2.4 trillion in the first three months of 2023, suggesting the Kremlin will not be able to meet budget targets for the year unless Russian oil benchmarks return to the soaring levels of 2022. The government is also expected to continue tapping into its National Wealth Fund or expand borrowing through OFZs, increasing the supply of bonds.

Crude Oil Holds Losses, Approaches 1-Year Low
WTI crude oil futures slid 4% to below $69 per barrel on Wednesday, declining more than 10% this week and approaching the one-year low of $67 touched on March 17th amid deepening worries of a demand-draining recession and rising fuel stocks. The Federal Reserve raised its funds rate by 25bps and the ECB is expected to follow, adding to market fears that tighter financial conditions will push major economies to contract. Moreover, a surprise contraction in Chinese manufacturing activity compounded previous signs that the key oil consumer’s economy is slowing considerably.

Gold Rises Above $2,020 Following Fed
Gold prices extended their rally and traded above $2,020 per ounce on Wednesday, approaching the 13-month high of $2,040 touched on April 13th, after the Federal Reserve delivered a 25bps rate hike, as expected, and omitted previous language that signaled further tightening. The wording solidified market bets that the central bank has concluded its 500bps tightening cycle at the 5.25% mark, lower than previous signals from FOMC members as turmoil in the financial sector and evidence of a softer job market pared the Fed’s aggressiveness. Gold prices were also supported by a flight to safety after JPMorgan’s acquisition of the First Republic Bank raised concerns of more instability for regional lenders. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is expected to tighten policy further this week as well, while the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised its cash rate on Tuesday.

Sensex Halts 8-Session Win Streak
The BSE Sensex closed 120 points lower at 61,230 on Wednesday, halting eight consecutive sessions of gains and easing from the over-four-month high touched yesterday as investors refrained from taking long positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Traders also digested private survey data that showed that India’s services sector grew at the fastest pace in nearly 13 years during April. Heavyweight companies in the tech and financial sectors led the losses, with Tech Mahindra, Axis Bank, TCS, and Bajaj Finance all losing more than 1%. Also, Tata Steel closed 0.4% lower after reporting an 82.5% year-on-year plunge in consolidated net profit for the quarter ending in March.

MOEX Extends Selloff
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index tumbled 1.8% to close at 2,532 on Wednesday, extending yesterday’s 2% slide and pulling back farther from the one-year high touched last week as the plunge in oil prices pressured Russia’s blue chips. The main international oil benchmarks lost more than $7 per barrel this week, pressuring Surgut, Bashneft, and Tatneft to lose more than 3.8% each, while Rosneft lost 1.5%. Besides hurting energy producers, lower oil prices sharply reduce the energy revenues for the Federal government, which is expected to trigger hefty one-time tax payments for Russian corporate giants to cover a widening budget deficit. In the meantime, Mechel sank nearly 4% as poor demand from China continued to pressure shares for steel producers.

European Stocks Rebound from 1-Month Low
European equity markets rose on Wednesday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 up 0.3% from a one-month low in the previous session and Germany’s DAX rising 0.6%. UniCredit was among the best performers, up 3.8%, on better-than-expected results and an uplift to guidance for this year. However, BNP Paribas lost more than 1%, even after reporting a doubling of profit in the first quarter. In other corporate news, German airline group Deutsche Lufthansa’s revenues increased by 40% to €7.02 billion in Q1, falling short of consensus, while the company predicted strong demand for holiday travel this summer. Luxury carmaker Porsche reported a consistent return on sales of 18.2%, but its revenue and operating profit increased by a quarter due to record high deliveries. Meanwhile, investors remained cautious ahead of expected further monetary tightening from the ECB and the Fed.

FTSE 100 Closes Higher
Equities in London regained some traction on Wednesday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 finishing around 7,790 points, driven by gains in the technology and material sector. Risk appetite showed signs of returning on bets that the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in its 14-month tightening cycle after raising interest rates for the last time later in the day. Among single stocks, Coca Cola HBC rose roughly 2.5% to be among the top gainers on the index higher after the beverage bottler reported first-quarter organic revenue growth of 22.2%. At the same time, Lloyds Bank became the latest UK lender to beat quarterly profits forecasts as earnings surged on the back of higher interest rates, although deposits fell sharply. Shares of the bank declined 3.5%.

US Stocks Close Lower after Fed Decision
The Dow ended 270 points lower on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell nearly 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively, as investors weighed comments from Fed Chair Powell at the press conference that signaled no rate cut is on the table if inflation remains high. Earlier, Wall Street enjoyed some respite on growing expectations the central bank will pause interest rate hikes, following today’s expected 25 bps increase. Adding to Fed concerns, the latest ADP data showed that private payroll job growth in April surpassed expectations, indicating that the labor market remains tight. Also, the ISM report showed that the US services sector expanded for the 4th consecutive month.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

The largest bank in the US takes over the collapsed First Republic Bank in a cheap deal. For CEO Jamie Dimon, it wasn’t the first successful emergency operation – he was the rescuer back in 2008.

The largest US bank emerges as a big winner from the long weekend of the crisis. After intensive negotiations and a sometimes grueling auction, J.P. Morgan Chase won the bid for California’s ailing First Republic Bank on Monday. This should draw a line under the recent banking crisis – even if the Wall Street giant is even bigger.

The deal marks the end of another dramatic escalation in the banking sector. The First Republic, until recently a top 15 US bank, was among the US regional lenders hardest hit by the banking turmoil since March. In the wake of the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank in San Francisco and Signature Bank in New York, depositors had withdrawn en masse from smaller institutions. After the initial panic seemed to calm down, things initially looked good for the First Republic as well. But investors fled again last week after the bank announced that it had outflowed more than $100 billion in deposits in the first quarter – and that it was exploring new options.

It emerged as the winner of the auction process over the weekend, in which several other banks also participated. JP Morgen will pay $10.6 billion to the FDIC to take control of most of the San Francisco-based bank’s assets and gain access to First Republic’s coveted customer base. “Our government asked us and others to get involved – and we did,” said Dimon, who had already played a key role in the state-orchestrated sale of the collapsed investment bank Bear Stearns during the financial crisis of 2008, which was also in the course of a dramatic crisis weekends at J.P. Morgan left.

What this means for us,
who`re interested in the financial market price action?
Especially for all our open 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities?                 TradingView Symbol since entry         target stop

long ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545         1.1496 0.9935
long XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26            170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945         34455 25350
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434         35228 31148
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299         17675 12586
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09         63583.07 52516.76
short TVC:UKOIL 2023/04/20 80.75         60.30 89.05

That´s why let me just remind us all
how banks make money in the first place.
They make money from what they call the spread, or the difference between the interest rate they pay for deposits and the interest rate they receive on the loans they make.
They earn interest on the securities they hold.
They earn fees for customer services, such as checking accounts, financial counseling, loan servicing and the sales of other financial products (e.g., insurance and mutual funds).

And now comes the crucial point, which George Soros, my literary ego, described as Reflection Theory. The ambivalent relationship between traders and/or investors about the fundamentals and price action. Which, in his opinion and/or in my opinion, is always overrated or underrated. What we have to watch in the coming days and/or weeks! To realize if we us while these days at a price action bottom. But don`t undestand me wring; i`m not thinking about it (yet) to just declare another bull market on US Wall Street. But at least our 4XSetUps long positions don’t close – so stay long for the time being in the us american DOW Future, in our german DAX Future, and/or indian stock market, the SENSEX Index.

Which is why I want to take a quick look at the gold price again at this point. Which, if you like, also stands as an anti-cyclical indicator for the banking system, for the fiat money system.
To find out what kind of price action scenario we are currently in?

Today, Gold Holds Advance on Haven Demand
Gold prices held around $2,015 an ounce on Wednesday after jumping nearly 2% in the previous session, as growing recession fears and persistent concerns over the banking sector in the US weighed on the dollar, while lifting other safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, investors remain cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision, where it is expected to deliver another 25 basis point rate hike. Data from the JOLTS showed that job openings in the US fell to a near two-year low during March, adding to recent evidence that higher borrowing costs have softened the labor market.