2023/04/25 (218) Column

I Am Not Writing Any Daily Colums
I’m Currently In Negotiations With A Financier Who Might Possibly Will Finance
Our Daily DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper All By Himself !?
That`s Why I Don’t Want And/Or Can’t Take Time To Write Useful Daily Columns In The Next Weeks …


The last D2D Edition, in the current format and/or design, will therefore appear on Thursday, May 11, 2023 for the time being. And then back again, regardless of my current negotiations, then at the latest from Sunday, September 03, 2021, again for all interested financial market participants. Whether in the same format and/or also affiliate partners or even a new individual financier !? I don`t know yet ?! We will – one way or another – experience this together from September 2023. So a big THANK YOU to all loyal readers – and until Sunday, September 3rd, 2023 at the latest. If you have any further questions, contact me at Devise2Day@gmail.com …DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

USA: JOE BIDEN Wants It Again!
Second Term For Oldest President In History?

US President Joe Biden wants to run for a second term in next year’s election. The Democrat announced this on Twitter on Tuesday. Every generation has a moment when they have to stand up for democracy and freedom. “I believe this is ours,” Biden wrote. “That’s why I’m running for re-election as President of the United States.” The 80-year-old published a three-minute video clip and warned: “Let’s finish the work.” Biden won the 2020 presidential election against then-Republican incumbent Donald Trump. He has been in office since January 2021 and was the oldest president ever to enter the White House. Biden will be 81 at the election in about a year and a half. At the end of a possible second term, he would be 86.

In USA, a person can serve two terms of office, whether consecutive or not. In recent months, there have been internal discussions within the Democratic Party as to whether Biden would be a suitable candidate for another presidential race because of his age. His poll numbers had also slipped to dramatic lows at times in the past few months. However, Biden’s government and his party were able to record some political successes afterwards and did surprisingly well in the congressional elections last November – this strengthened Biden’s position both internally and externally.

Trump also wants to run again in the 2024 election. The 76-year-old (born June 14, 1946) officially announced his candidacy for the presidency last November. A broad field of applicants is expected for the Republicans. In polls, Trump is far ahead of other potential candidates for his party – despite all the scandals of the past.

As an incumbent, Biden is unlikely to have any serious competition among the Democrats. In order to actually run as his party’s official candidate, Biden has to be confirmed in internal party primaries.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Nasdaq: Tech Rally Put To The Test – Is The Bullish Story True?

The tech rally that drove the Nasdaq and other US indices higher is based on two pillars: first, the US banking crisis, which led to a flight to the big tech stocks as supposed safe havens. Secondly, on the hope that the Fed will significantly lower interest rates this year – also and precisely because of the banking crisis. In the past, however, this hope has always been disappointed – but one still hopes. As a result, the prices of the major Nasdaq stocks rose without increasing expectations of these companies’ profits.

Today the big tech reporting season begins with Microsoft and Alphabet (we will report on finanzmarktwelt.de from 10 p.m.) – your outlook is particularly important. Without this tech rally, Wall Street would have come under significant pressure long ago – so these now extremely expensive tech stocks now have to justify their valuation levels!

Stock Markets: WallStreet Begins To Price In Recession!

Wall Street stock markets are now apparently starting to price in the coming recession in the US after a long period of ignorance – previously they had only focused on one side of the coin: the expected interest rate cuts by the Fed – without asking why the Fed is doing so would have to lower interest rates, if it really lowers them. But today’s US economic data (US Consumer Confidence Conference Board) and the figures from the global logistics company UPS, which speaks of a global decline in demand and also expressly includes Asia, have shot this utopia.

Only the Dax wants to play a little more ideal world. Now the focus is on the figures from Google and Microsoft (we report on finanzmarktwelt.de from 10 p.m. on the figures and the market reactions).Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

EURUSD Close To One-Year Highs DEU10Y Falls, Earnings and ECB Eyed Brent Crude Falls 2% Hang Seng Tumbles To Near 1-Month Low
Kiwi Dollar Moves Higher IND10Y Falls to 1-Year Low Gold Inches Higher Russian Shares Edge Lower For 2nd Session
European Shares Close Mostly Lower
FTSE 100 Ends Below 7,900
Wall Street Slides On Bank Worries

Euro Remains Close to One-Year Highs
The euro traded at $1.10 heading into the end of April, close to high levels not seen in a year, as investors braced for further rate hikes by the ECB next week. While the Fed is expected to pause its tightening cycle soon, the ECB is seen raising borrowing costs for a seventh time. However, the size of the move is not definitive, with most investors betting on a 25bps increase and others projecting a bigger 50bps. Comments from several ECB members on the matter also differ. ECB Schnabel told Politico that a 50bps rate hike was not off the table, while Villeroy de Galhau called for limited increases.

Kiwi Dollar Moves Higher
The New Zealand dollar traded around $0.617 on Tuesday after briefly hitting its five-week low of $0.614 in the prior session, as the US dollar softened amid bets that the Federal Reserve could pause its rate hike cycle by as soon as June or even deliver a rate cut later this year. Meanwhile, the RBNZ is expected to raise the cash rate by a quarter point to 5.5% in May after delivering a total of 500bps since October 2021. Recent data showed the annual inflation rate in New Zealand fell to 6.7% in Q1 of 2023 from 7.2% previously but was still more than double the bank’s target. In other news, PM Chris Hipkins and his counterpart from Australia, Anthony Albanese, reiterated their mutual commitment to “peace and stability” in the strategic Indo-Pacific region amid China’s growing influence. Traders now keenly await domestic data this week, including New Zealand’s trade figures for March as well as consumer and business sentiment for April.German 10-Year Bond Yield Falls, Earnings and ECB Eyed
The German 10-year government bond yield fell below 2.5% at the end of April, after touching an over one-month high of 2.5% on April 19th, as investors assessed the health of the economy, fresh corporate results, and braced for the ECB monetary policy decision next week. Bank earnings were of particular concern, with UBS reporting a 52% annual drop in net profit and Santander noting deposit outflows in Spain. In the meantime, the ECB is expected to raise rates again next week, but the size of the move is not certain. Most market participants bet on a 25bps increase, while the rest anticipate a bigger 50bps. On the data front, producer prices in Spain fell for the first time since 2020 in March. Also, PMIs for April showed business activity in the Euro Area remained robust amid a buoyant services sector, while manufacturing remained in contraction.

Indian 10-Year Bond Yield Falls to 1-Year Low
The yield on the Indian 10-year government bond fell to 7.1% at the end of April, the lowest in one year, as dovish monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India and a batch of weak corporate earnings ramped up demand for government bonds. In its latest meeting, the RBI challenged market expectations and kept its main repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, pausing its tightening cycle after 250bps of rate increases since May 2022. Softer policy anticipated the pullback in Indian inflation during March, as lower oil and food prices reduced costs for the main sectors of the Indian goods basket. A batch of concerning corporate results for tech companies also supported the momentum for government bonds, with higher-than-expected demand in the latest auction triggering short covering for many traders. In the meantime, FTSE Russell maintained Indian government bonds on its watchlist for inclusion in its fixed income indices.

Brent Crude Falls 2%
Brent crude futures failed to hold the recent upside and bottomed below the $81 per barrel mark on Tuesday as lingering concerns about slowing global economic growth outweighed prospects of smaller global supplies and higher demand from China. Tightening financial conditions and recession worries, with central banks from the United States to Europe expected to raise interest rates next month, have clouded the outlook for fuel demand, particularly in advanced economies. Still, investors remained optimistic about China’s crude demand recovery after bookings for trips abroad during the upcoming May Day holiday pointed to a continued increase in travel to Asian countries. On supply side, more output cuts planned by OPEC+ from May could constrict global markets further.Gold Inches Higher
Gold prices steadied near $1,990 an ounce on Tuesday as the US dollar softened further ahead of a slew of US economic data this week, including consumer sentiment, core PCE index, and Q1 GDP figures. The Fed is still anticipated to raise rates by another 25 basis points during its meeting next week, but Fed Fund futures prices showed markets are pricing in an over 60% chance of a mid-year pause in the body’s tightening cycle. A Bloomberg survey pointed to growing expectations that the regulator will cut interest rates later in 2023, especially if economic conditions worsen. Meanwhile, Dallas Fed’s ’ report revealed on Monday factory activity in Texas shrank further in April, falling the most in nine months and highlighting the toll elevated borrowing costs took on the economy.

Hang Seng Tumbles to Near 1-Month Low
The Hang Seng slumped 234 points or 1.2% to near one-month lows of 19,476 on Tuesday morning deals, down for the third session, amid weakness from all sectors, except energy. Fears about rising COVID cases in China mounted ahead of the five-day break that starts Saturday. This would be the first long public holiday since the Lunar New Year, with local media saying tourist numbers are expected to exceed those from the same period in 2019. Meantime, US futures moved lower after Wall Street drifted overnight, due to uncertainty over the Fed’s upcoming rate decision and as investors awaited earnings results including Microsoft and Meta Platforms Inc. Traders also braced for the US Q1 GDP print this week, with expectations growing that economic activity had slowed significantly from a 2.6% expansion in Q4. Wuxi Biologics saw a sharp fall (-6.6%), as did Meituan (-5.2%), CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (-4.9%), Alibaba Health Intl. (-4.4%), Baidu Inc. (-4.2%), and Sino Pharmaceutical Ltd. (-3.9%).

Russian Shares Edge Lower for 2nd Session
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index hovered marginally below the flatline at the 2,630 mark on Tuesday, easing for a second session after closing the prior week at a one-year high as the pullback for raw material shares offset gains for banks. Miners and metallurgists led the losses in the session, tracking the extended decline in base metal prices as evidence of low Chinese demand continued to mount. Mechel sank by 1%, while Rusal and NorNickel both slid by 0.5%. In the meantime, Surgut lost 1% and set the pace for oil producers, as investors continued to position themselves for dividend announcements from the company this week. On the other hand, Bank Saint Petersburg extended its rally with a 4% jump.European Shares Close Mostly Lower
The pan-European STOXX 600 lost 0.4% on Tuesday while the DAX cut early losses to close 0.1% higher, as investors digest fresh corporate earnings. Basic materials, financials and energy were among the worst performing sectors. UBS reported a 52% decline in net profit in Q1, mostly due to a $665 million increase in provisions after a U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities litigation matter. Also, Santander profits topped analysts estimates but the bank reported a steeper deposit outflows in Spain. Also, Swedish copper miner Boliden posted Q1 adjusted operating profit below market estimates, citing production challenges. 

FTSE 100 Ends Below 7,900
Equities in London ended Tuesday’s session in negative territory, with the benchmark FTSE 100 finishing below the 7,900 mark, dragged by losses in the heavyweight materials and energy sectors. Glencore, Anglo American, and Rio Tinto dropped more than 3% each to lead the losses in the export-oriented index as expectations of weaker metal demand continued to hurt the sector.

Wall Street Slides on Bank Worries
The blue-chip Dow closed more than 300 points lower on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lost nearly 1.6% and 2%, respectively, as investors digested the latest corporate earnings results for clues about the health of the US economy. First Republic tumbled 49.4% after the regional bank reported that deposits shrank by 41% to $104.5 billion last quarter, reigniting concerns about a banking crisis. United Parcel Service fell nearly 10% amid worse-than-expected Q1 revenue due to a deceleration in US retail sales. On the positive side of the ledger, PepsiCo added 2.3% after posting quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations. Mcdonald’s (-0.5%) also reported quarterly results that surprised investors on the upside. Market participants now await results from tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet after the bell. On the data front, US consumer confidence declined to the lowest level since July.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

In Germany we say: “A picture says more than thousand words!“ – as does CNBC presenter David F. in relation to the fall of First Republic Bank shares, which fell as low as USD 8.92 at the relevant time.

In view of the current figures from the US regional bank First Republic, many writing colleagues had already headed yesterday after the close of trading that the share could go down by up to -50% today. Becasue the share price was “only” down by around 20 percent in the after-hours yesterday. Regular US trading was down 40% today. Because a customer base that withdraws 40% of capital from a bank within a few weeks is simply the stuff (potential) bank failures are made of. In the First Republic, it would have been more than 50% if larger banks had not stepped in to provide $30 billion. The stock market is initially shocked by this news. Analysts had previously forecast a significantly lower outflow. On the other hand, the question arises: is it really that surprising? Who leaves their money in a bank when there are rumors that it could be the next SVB? Not only but above all these questions burden the bulls on the stock market! And depress the mood on Wall Street, the prices of the stocks.

And that too when tech giants like Alphabet and/or Microsoft published surprisingly good numbers after the closing bell on Wall Street today – precisely because of the events just described. All of which I also illustrated on the front page of todays DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper Edition.

Basically, it`s now the time, if I`m not wrong, important to select in the US stock market, especially the NASDAQ 100.

Because the rise of the NASDAQ 100 is based on the tech giants – while the majority of stocks from the tech sector are trading more or less around 52-week lows. And since we were stop out in our last NASDAQ 100 short 4XSetUp; incl. short 4XSetUps in TSLA and/or BABA, we currently only have long 4XSetUps in the DOW, DAX and SENSEX – which are less technology-heavy. But more about that in the Technical Analysis 4XSetUps next week. In this week’s Technical Analysis 4XSetUps, we are still concentrating us on the price action development of the BITCOIN Future.

                 Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our all still open 4XSetUps yet:

                 TradingView Symbol since entry         target stop

long ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545         1.1496 0.9935
long XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26            170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945         34455 25350
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434         35228 31148
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299         17675 12586
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09         63583.07 52516.76
short TVC:UKOIL 2023/04/20 80.75         60.30 89.05

In the Financial Markets 4XSetUps (from page 25) i choosed the NYSE-GS share today.
I came to the bullish/bearish result of 18:0, with the help of the methods of the technical analysis – thanks to numerous different indicators. But watch, analyze, and/or evaluate for yourself (buying/selling or not trading).

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. engages in the provision of financial services. It operates through the following business segments: Global Banking and Markets, Asset and Wealth Management, and Platform Solutions. The Global Banking and Markets segment includes investment banking, equity and debt underwriting, Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodities (FICC) intermediation and financing activities, relationship lending and acquisition financing, and investing activities. The Asset and Wealth Management segment provides investment services and manages client assets across investment strategies and asset classes. The Platform Solutions segment includes consumer platforms such as partnerships offering credit cards and point-of-sale financing, and transaction banking. The company was founded by Marcus Goldman in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, NY.
And last but not least,
some price action news out of todays trading session:

In the united states today Microsoft decreased to a 4-week low of 278.39, Merck & Co increased to a near 51-year high of 116.46 and/or Intel decreased to a 4-week low of 29.5. While in australia, while their trading session before, BHP Billiton decreased to a 23-week low of 42.8 and/or here in europe, while european trading session, the frend Sanofi increased to a 12-month high of 104.56.