2023/04/20 (215) Column

Work And/Or CFD`s
Back To Reality
And That With The Help Of Every Single D2D Edition Which Helps You
To Help Yourself To Make Better Decisions (Buying/Selling Or No Trading)
And That Not Only But Rather With Central Bank 4XSetUps
So That You Don`t Just Generate Profits But Rather More & More Learning & Learning
With The Help Of Using Until 5 Different Angles About Financial Market Price Actions Daily


If you pursue another professional activity to earn your living, you must first organize your everyday life (i.e. your job and your CFD trading). And that only works if you formulate a time frame and/or trading framework. A time frame to get your life organized – and/or a trading frame also to know what to do while your CFD trading. By the way, on my homepage you can get learning videos and/or templates from my books about these topics.

That’s why I inform you daily, day by day, with Central Bank 4XSetUps, with new old informations, even new informations from central banks. Analyze and evaluate them too, so that you, yes you, are better informed every day than all other financial market participants who do not read our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper – in order to make even better trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading).

Imagine this following pragmatic practical example, my dear faithful reader:
You have read, analyzed and/or evaluated todays Central Banks 4XSetUp and made
the personal individual subjectively free self-determined decision to buy a few CFD`s on the DXY!

Everything so far so good! But we can go one step further also – if you want even 4 more steps.
And this by asking yourself after your trading decision (as in this fictional example of DXY):
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Technical Analysis 4XSetUp?
Is the technical picture of the price action a reason to buy/sell or do nothing?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Scenario 4XSetUp?
Is the relationship to other price action a reason to buy/sell or not to trade the DXY?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Financial Market 4XSetUp?
Is the native economy of the DXY a reason to buy/sell or not to trade the DXY?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Economic 4XSetUp?
Is the native economy of the DXY a reason to buy/sell or not to trade the DXY?

The advantage and/or much more sensible uselful pragmatic practical learning effect of this philosophical-psychological approach is self-evident; Actually needless to say! You either get 5:0 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 4:1 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 3:2 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 2:3 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 1:4 reasons to buy the DXY. And that originally just because of the Technical Analysis. That`s it – however you want it – it`s yours…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Germany On The Ground:
Warning Strikes Are Slowing Down Traffic At Several Airports

At several German airports, passengers have to be prepared for noticeable disabilities again on Thursday and Friday. The Verdi trade union called on warning strikes for employees in the aviation security sector, in passenger control, personnel and goods control and in service areas at Düsseldorf, Hamburg, Cologne/Bonn and Stuttgart airports. The background to the warning strikes are the negotiations between Verdi and the Federal Association of Aviation Security Companies (BDLS) about time supplements for night, Saturday, Sunday and public holiday work as well as better collective bargaining regulations for overtime pay for security and service staff at commercial airports. Negotiations are scheduled to continue on April 27th and 28th.

SpaceEx Test Flight Of Mega Rocket Fails:
Famous Owner Elon Musk Still Speaks Of Success

SpaceX’s Starship rocket exploded on its first test flight. The largest and most powerful rocket ever built took off as planned on Thursday from the SpaceX Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas. However, about three minutes after launch, the 120-meter high unmanned rocket began to lurch and finally exploded. At this point, the first stage of propulsion should have separated from the Starship space shuttle.

SpaceX still spoke of a success. “As if flight testing wasn’t exciting enough, Starship experienced a rapid unplanned breakup prior to stage separation,” tech billionaire Elon Musk’s company tweeted. “In a test like this, success comes from what we learn, and today’s test will help us improve Starship’s reliability.”

SpaceX engineer Kate Tice said the rocket successfully took off from the launch pad. This is what SpaceX was hoping for.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Nasdaq:
Tesla Disenchanted – Cluster Risk Big Tech!

There is currently a huge concentration of risk on both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 – and this is underpinned by yesterday’s figures from Tesla! Because these numbers are actually a demystification of Tesla: the margins are falling drastically (worse than Mercedes!) and thus show that the myth of Tesla is crumbling more and more!

The Tesla share had risen by +48% since the beginning of the year – yesterday it went down by six percent according to the figures. This is exactly where the concentration of risk shows: a few large and market-heavy companies such as Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia have driven the Nasdaq and other US indices upwards, thereby concealing the weakness of the broader market. But if Big Tech doesn’t deliver, things get uncomfortable. The warning signals for the US stock markets are increasing.

US:
Probability Of recession? 100%!

The probability of an impending recession in the USA is 100% – if the historical parameters from financial history are not completely wrong. That the probability of a recession is so overwhelmingly high can be shown by two economic data, which were released again today: the Philadelphia Fed Index and the US Leading Indicators (LEI). But Wall Street stock markets are overvalued for this apparent economic slowdown.

The most difficult phase for the markets should not be long in coming: it is the time lag between the increasingly evident slowdown in the economy and the US Federal Reserve’s delayed reaction to this slowdown. Will the figures from the tech giants (and their outlook) coming next week in particular, start this phase?Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

NZD Drops After Inflation Data US10Y Falls from 1-Month Highs Sugar Near 11-Year High Asian Stock Mixed on Fed Jitters
South African Rand Subdued UK10Y Hits 6-Week High Oil Falls for 2nd Session MOEX Rallies on Lukoil Dividend Announcement
European Stocks Fall for 2nd Session
FTSE 100 Ends Flat
Wall Street Drops for 2nd Session

NZD Drops After Inflation Data
The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.75% to $0.615 on Thursday, its lowest level in over a month, after inflation data came in softer than anticipated and traders started to project the nearing end of RBNZ’s aggressive tightening cycle. Official data showed the country’s annual inflation eased to 6.7% in Q1 of 2023 from 7.2% previously due to slower rises in housing and transport prices. In the meantime, the central bank has raised interest rates for 11 straight meetings, lifting the cash rate by a total of 500bps since October 2021 and bringing borrowing costs to a near 15-year high of 5.25%. Elsewhere, the US dollar held gains, with the index staying around 102, after strong US banking earnings results strengthened expectations that the Fed would remain hawkish longer. Reuters estimated that the US central bank would deliver a final 25bps hike in May and then hold rates for the rest of the year.

South African Rand Subdued
The South African rand was trading around 18.1 against the USD, not far from a one-month low of 18.5 hit on April 10th, as the dollar gained ground on expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates once more in May before pausing to assess the impact on the economy. Locally, South Africa’s central bank lifted its main lending rate by a larger-than-expected 50 bps to 7.75% in March, citing upside risks to the inflation outlook mainly due to growing food prices in the wake of severe power constraints. South Africa’s annual inflation accelerated unexpectedly for the second month to 7.1% in March, prompted again by a rise in the food category. South African Reserve Bank is expected to continue its interest-rate hiking cycle, with traders now fully pricing in a quarter-point increase in May.US 10-Year Bond Yield Falls from One-Month Highs
The 10-year US Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, eased to around 3.5% from nearly one-month highs of 3.6% touched on April 19th after new data signaled an economic slowdown. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index sank more than expected to its lowest since May 2020, while initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose for the second week and continuing claims hit the highest since November 2021. Still, markets continue to price a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate next month, while a cut is mostly expected by the end of the year. New York Fed President Williams recently said inflation is still too high and the central bank needs to hold policy tight. Appearances from other policymakers this week are also set to provide further hints on the policy outlook.

UK 10-Year Bond Yield Hits 6-Week High
The yield on the UK’s 10-year Gilt extended gains towards 3.9% in April, touching its highest level since March 7, as stronger-than-expected inflation and wage data supported expectations for a rate hike at the Bank of England’s meeting in May. The CPI report on Wednesday showed consumer prices rose by an annual 10.1% in March, slightly down from February’s 10.4% but higher than forecasts of 9.8%, with food inflation hitting a 45-year high. Earlier this week, data had shown British wages rose faster than anticipated last month and the jobless rate edged up to 3.8%, suggesting the labor market remained tight and also further supporting more hikes by the BoE, which could, in turn, raise the prospect of recession. Markets are currently pricing in three more hikes by the BoE this year.

Sugar Hovers Near 11-Year High
Raw sugar futures traded at 24.5 cents per pound in April, hovering near their highest in 11 years amid expectations of weaker supply due to adverse weather conditions. As the Asian cane crushing season has started to wind down, key producing countries, including India, Thailand, China, and Pakistan, have downwardly revised crop projections. Sugar output in India is estimated to drop to 33.5 MT in the current marketing year from previous forecasts of 34.5 MT amid unseasonal rainfalls. At the same time, sugar production in Europe slid on lower beet crops derived from reduced acreage and severe summer drought. The output is set to rise in Brazil, but the higher sugar cane supply would likely be allocated to ethanol. The prices of crude oil have increased in the last few weeks, and the end of gasoline tax exemptions in Brazil will make biofuel blending a lot more profitable.Oil Falls for 2nd Session
Brent crude futures fell toward $82 per barrel on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session, weighed down by concerns that higher interest rates could dampen global economic growth and future energy demand. The US Federal Reserve is expected to deliver another 25 basis point rate hike in May, and the European Central Bank is seen raising borrowing costs three times in the next few months. Meanwhile, the latest EIA report showed crude oil stocks in the US fell by 4.581 million barrels last week, far exceeding forecasts of a 1.088 million barrel drop and offering a somewhat bullish outlook for short-term demand. Also, bets increased that demand from China would remain strong after the first quarter GDP figures pointed to a sharper recovery.

Asian Stock Mixed on Fed Jitters
Asian equity markets were mixed on Thursday as the prospect of further interest rate hikes weighed on sentiment, with the US Federal Reserve expected to deliver another 25 basis point increase in May. Investors also digested data showing Japanese exports grew more than expected in March, though the country posted a trade deficit for the 20th consecutive month. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates unchanged for the eighth consecutive month at the April fixing. The Kospi, Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component declined, while the S&P/ASX 200, Nikkei 225 and Hang Send rose slightly.

MOEX Rallies on Lukoil Dividend Announcement
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early losses and closed 1.2% higher at 2,637 on Thursday, the highest in one year, supported by news of dividend payments from key players in the Russian energy sector. Lukoil closed 4.9% higher after its board of directors recommended paying dividends of RUB 438 per share, yielding 9.2% at current share prices, for the record-setting 2022. Also, Tatneft jumped 3% following news that its board will decide on dividends next Thursday. On the other hand, TMK dragged down metallurgists with an 11.4% plunge after declaring it will not pay dividends for last year. Since the Russian stock market crash caused by the war in Ukraine, strict capital controls and volatile price action drove investors to prioritize dividend payments for safe returns.

European Stocks Fall for 2nd Session
European equity markets fell on Thursday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 extending losses for the second day and the German DAX retreating 0.6%. Automakers tumbled 3.7%, following poor results from Tesla. Renault sank 8%, even after reporting a 29.9% increase in revenues for Q1, above market consensus, and reaffirming its 2023 outlook. Meanwhile, Sweden’s Volvo also posted higher adjusted operating income and raised its outlook for the European and North American heavy-duty truck markets amid easing supply chain disruptions in Europe. Also, telecoms went down more than 1%, with Nokia losing almost 9% after its first-quarter operating profit came in below expectations.

FTSE 100 Ends Flat
Equities in London struggled to find traction on Thursday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 finishing virtually flat at 7,900 points, as losses in the heavyweight materials and energy sectors offset gains in real estate. Market participants continued looking to this earnings season for signs about the global economy’s health while contemplating the future path of interest rate rises. Wednesday’s data showing sharper-than-expected UK consumer price increases also weighed on sentiment by dashing hopes that the Bank of England will soon end its aggressive tightening campaign. On the corporate side, Melrose Industries came into the spotlight, up almost 20% because of the reverse stock split. Miner Antofagasta was among the top losers, down 3%.

Wall Street Drops For 2nd Session
US stocks remained under pressure for the second straight session on Thursday as investors continued to digest the latest batch of earnings and comments from Federal Reserve speakers. The Dow lost over 100 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slid 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. Tesla sank 9.7% after the electric vehicle manufacturer unveiled its lowest quarterly gross margin in two years, followed by more price cuts on its models. Similarly, AT&T plummeted 10.4% after it missed estimates of free cash flow. On the other hand, IBM ended in the green after it said margins were expanding. Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester supports for another rate hike to tame inflation while emphasizing the need to watch recent bank turmoil that could dampen the economy. On the economic front, initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose for the second week and continuous claims jumped to their highest since November 2021, the latest signal that the labor market is softening.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Last week, two leading economic institutions, the IFO and the IMF, released new assessments of the current crisis in the economic system. “This strategy of buying time has now come to an end“, was the basic message. Meanwhile, in several big capitalist countries, the central banks are trying to stabilize their national economies. Most recently, the US Federal Reserve, the Fed, met to stop inflation by raising interest rates. The recession beckons the German economy in 2023. On Monday, last week, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) published its current “World Economic Outlook” from April under the heading “A rocky road to recovery”.

In the preface to the report, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas writes unequivocally that “the world is entering a “risky phase” as economic growth remains low by historical standards and financial risks have increased without having averted inflation.“ The head of the IMF currently sees the greatest risk in the recent turbulence in the banking sector. „We live in a capitalist system and, according to Gourinchas, people often only look for “the next weakest link” instead of planning for the long term.“

Hard Landing Ahead? I Don`t Think So, Today!

The report itself revises the “tentative signs” that indicated as late as early 2023 that the global economy could achieve “a soft landing.” In view of persistently high inflation and the recent turbulence in the financial sector, this hope has “evaporated”. Global growth, measured by the average gross domestic product (GDP) of all economies worldwide, was still 3.4% in 2022, but will fall to at least 2.8% this year before possibly rising again to 3.0% in 2024, he said the IMF forecast.

Inflation Remains High

The poor prospects resulted from the enormously high inflation, the attempted countermeasures by the central banks, the ongoing war in Ukraine and “increasing geoeconomic fragmentation”. Global headline inflation is likely to decline to 7.0% in 2023 from 8.7% in 2022 due to lower commodity prices, but underlying (core) inflation is likely to decline even more slowly. However, i except that the us inflation will comes down this year 2023 until christmas to around 2-3%. But because of this green self conflict inflation experience, i wouldn`t be wonder, if the FED will hold high interest rates like today, at least until into bnext year 2024. May be one more hike in may!?

                 Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our all open 4XSetUps :

                 TradingView Symbol since entry       target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545       1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26       170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945       34420 22875
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434       35228 31148
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299       17675 12586
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09       63583.07 52516.76

Today the market punished TSLA stock – and fell below our stop price.
So we closed this 4XSetUp. The numbers weren’t bad; But the fundamental valuation of the stock is simply too bad compared to the other automakers. So that the majority of financial market participants do not seem ready to accept the high P/E ratio. Basically, it actually seems to be the case at the moment that the NASDAQ 100 is still having a harder time than the DOW JONES Index. Which is why I also want our short BABA 4XSetUp to be closed at the closing price.

closed        entry      target       stop                          TView Symbol         entry date      stop         profit

23/04/20   191.81 262.47 166.71 long NASDAQ:TSLA 23/03/27   166.17 – 15.43%
23/04/20   99.29 125.84 79.48 long NYSE:BABA 23/03/29     90.74 –  9.42%

Because I don’t dare to be long in the technology sector anymore!
In retrospect, it would probably have been better not only to have been long in the BMW share and/or LVMH share but also to formulate two other long 4XSetUps. But let’s leave that! Let’s not get too greedy in these economic circumstances and during the current interest rate cycle.
That`s why I formulate another short UKOIL 4XSetUp.

                 TradingView Symbol since entry target stop

short TVC:UKOIL 2023/04/20 80.75 60.30 89.05

But more about the oil price action in the coming days; in one of our next Technical Analysis 4XSetUps.