2023/04/19 (214) Column

Work And/Or CFD`s
Back To Reality
And That With The Help Of Every Single D2D Edition Which Helps You
To Help Yourself To Make Better Decisions (Buying/Selling Or No Trading)
And That Not Only But Rather With Economic 4XSetUps
So That You Don`t Just Generate Profits But Rather More & More Learning & Learning
With The Help Of Using Until 5 Different Angles About Financial Market Price Actions Daily


If you pursue another professional activity to earn your living, you must first organize your everyday life (i.e. your job and your CFD trading). And that only works if you formulate a time frame and/or trading framework. A time frame to get your life organized – and/or a trading frame also to know what to do while your CFD trading. By the way, on my homepage you can get learning videos and/or templates from my books about these topics.

That’s why I inform you daily, day by day, with Economic 4XSetUps, with new old informations, even new economic data with references. Analyze and evaluate them too, so that you, yes you, are better informed every day than all other financial market participants who do not read our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper – in order to make even better trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading).

Imagine this following pragmatic practical example, my dear faithful reader:
You have read, analyzed and/or evaluated todays Economic 4XSetUp and made
the personal individual subjectively free self-determined decision to buy a few CFD`s on the DXY!

Everything so far so good! But we can go one step further also – if you want even 4 more steps.
And this by asking yourself after your trading decision (as in this fictional example of DXY):
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Technical Analysis 4XSetUp?
Is the technical picture of the price action a reason to buy/sell or do nothing?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Scenario 4XSetUp?
Is Russia`s war of aggression against Ukraine a reason to buy/sell or do nothing?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Financial Market 4XSetUp?
Is the relationship to other price action a reason to buy/sell or not to trade the DXY?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Central Banks 4XSetUp?
Is the native central bank of the DXY a reason to buy/sell or not to trade the DXY?

The advantage and/or much more sensible uselful pragmatic practical learning effect of this philosophical-psychological approach is self-evident; Actually needless to say! You either get 5:0 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 4:1 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 3:2 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 2:3 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 1:4 reasons to buy the DXY. And that originally just because of the Technical Analysis. That`s it – however you want it – it`s yours…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

German Bundestag:
Baerbock and Stark-Watzinger
– Government Survey & Question Time

In the Bundestag on Wednesday (from 1 p.m.) in the government survey, Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) and Education and Research Minister Bettina Stark-Watzinger (FDP) will answer questions from MPs. Subsequently, at the request of the CDU/CSU, parliament is to debate the nuclear phase-out again in a current hour. Despite the fact that the last three German nuclear power plants were switched off at the weekend, the Union is still calling for the “continued use of nuclear power”.

In the afternoon, the Bundestag will also discuss the Bundeswehr’s participation in the new EU military mission in Niger, Africa. This is intended to help stabilize the difficult security situation in the Sahel region. It is also about measures against food waste, the national water strategy and an application by the AfD to set up a committee of inquiry into state protective measures against corona pandemic.

Dusiburg: Knife Attack In The Gym!
Several Seriously Injured – Perpetrators Fled

After the attack in a Duisburg gym with four serious injuries, the police are still looking for at least one suspect. “The search is ongoing,” said a spokeswoman for the responsible police in Essen on Wednesday night. The investigation into the background continued. In the attack in the gym in the center of the Ruhr area city on Tuesday, three people were life-threatening and one person was seriously injured.

The police were looking for at least one fugitive suspect, the emergency services said. “We are currently unable to publish a serious description of the perpetrator. Some witness interviews are still taking place,” the police wrote on Twitter on Tuesday evening.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Wall Street: The Easy Part For The Stock Markets Is Over!

The easy part for Wall Street stock markets is now over: the numbers from the big US banks, which ended up being the big beneficiaries of the banking crisis, have come out very decent. But now the victims of the banking crisis are having their say: the regional banks are reporting their figures (four important US regional banks are now pre-market), as are the tech companies, which have a weighting of more than 28% in the leading US index S&P 500 and therefore for the further development of the stock markets on Wall Street are decisive. What’s striking is that tech stocks on the Nasdaq have moved further and further away from the reality of rising yields – so either bond yields have to fall or the Nasdaq has to. After a roller coaster ride from Netflix according to their numbers, today the numbers of Tesla in focus.

Fear Barometer VIX Falls To New Low – Basis For Rally?

The ‘fear barometer’ VIX falls to its lowest level since November 2021 – is this a good basis for another Wall Street rally? So the need for hedging on the downside is obviously extremely low right now, no one seems concerned hence the VIX keeps falling.

It’s now starting to get really exciting:
in the next few days, the results of the large tech companies will be available, which due to their weighting have the strongest effect on the US indices (over 28% weighting in the S&P 500) – starting today with Tesla (we report at finanzmarktwelt.de from 10 p.m.). There are actually numerous uncertainty factors: the banking crisis (already over?), the credit crunch in the wake of the banking crisis, the stress in US commercial real estate, plus the prospect that the Fed will raise interest rates at least once more and then further up leaves.Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

EURUSD Close To 1-Year High ITL10Y Rises To 6-Week High Arabica Over 6-Month High Indian Shares Decline for 3rd Session
GBPUSD Holds Close to 10-Month High UK10Y Rise After Inflation Data Crude Oil Falls 2% Russian Shares Halt 5-Day Win Streak
European Stocks Momentum Fades
FTSE 100 Snaps Eight-Day Rally
Wall Street Drops for 2nd Session

Euro Remains Close To 1-Year High On Expectations of Tighter Policy
The euro held above the $1.09 mark, close to an over-12-month high of $1.1075 touched on April 14, as European Central Bank policymakers called for a tighter policy. ECB chief economist Philip Lane on Tuesday joined a chorus of Eurozone central bankers supporting an interest rate increase at the May meeting but said the size would depend on incoming data. Earlier this month, ECB’s Klaas Knot had already stated it was unclear whether 50 bps or 25 bps would be needed. At the same time, Robert Holzmann backed another 50 bps move, while Peter Kazimir considered a slowdown in the pace of tightening. Markets are now pricing in a 25 bps rate hike next month, with around a 20% chance of a larger 50 bps hike. Last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank stood ready to respond as necessary to combat inflation, with the latter projected to remain high for a long period.

Sterling Holds Close To 10-Month High After CPI Report
Sterling extended gains above $1.24, moving closer towards an over-10-month high of $1.2546 touched on April 14, after recent data pointed to a sticky inflation and tight labor market in the UK. The latest CPI report showed Britain’s inflation rate remained above the 10% mark for a seventh straight month in March, with food inflation hitting a 45-year record and supporting expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike in May from the Bank of England. At the same time, Tuesday’s jobs report revealed the jobless rate edged up to 3.8%, and total pay growth was unchanged at 5.9%, also beating forecasts of 5.1%. In the US, data pointing to resilience in core retail sales and solid bank earnings, alongside hawkish comments from Fed officials, raised the chances for a 25 bps increase from the US central lender next month.Italian 10-Year Bond Yield Rises To 6-Week High
The yield on the Italian 10-year BTP jumped to 4.3% in April, the highest in six weeks, as the European banking sector recovered from turmoil in March and added room for the ECB to prolong its hiking campaign. Economists expect the central bank to deliver three additional 25bps rate increases, lifting the deposit rate to 3.25% and holding it at that level until 2024. The hawkish policy is set to stay as core inflation in the currency bloc rose to a fresh record despite the sharp slowdown in the headline reading. Italian bonds were also pressured by the remarks of Governing Council members, who stressed the ECB must accelerate the pace of its quantitative tightening. Consequently, the spread between the 10-year BTP remained at the 180bps level after touching 175bps in early March, reflecting the credit risk in Italian bonds amid higher interest rates.

UK Bond Yields Rise After Inflation Data
The yield on the UK’s 10-year Gilt jumped to 3.82% in April, the highest since early-March, amid increasing expectations the BoE will continue to raise interest rates. Fresh inflation figures showed price pressures remain elevated in the UK, with the headline inflation slowing less than expected to 10.1%. At the same time, wages rose more than forecasts and data released last week had already suggested the economy could avoid a recession at the beginning of the year. The new price readings dashed bets the central bank could pause the tightening cycle and markets were almost fully pricing in 25bps increase in borrowing costs next month.

Arabica Coffee Rises To Over 6-Month High
Arabica coffee futures in the US extended gains to $205 per pound, the highest since October 12th, 2022, amid expectations for smaller global coffee supplies. The latest data showed ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a fresh 4-month low of 708,312 bags. Meanwhile, dealers said exports from key origins such as Brazil and Colombia were slumping, and the demand was holding up. The Colombia Coffee Growers Federation reported that March coffee exports in Colombia decreased 19% y/y to 906,000 bags. At the same time, Cecafe said Brazil shipped 3.088 million 60-kg bags abroad in the same period, 19% less than a year ago, reflecting lower stocks after two smaller crops. The International Coffee Organization projected another year of strong supply deficit in the coffee market, with a shortfall of 7.3 million bags, mainly due to arabica crop woes in Latin America’s top producer.Crude Oil Falls 2%
WTI crude futures dropped 2% to around $79 per barrel on Wednesday, moving further away from a five-month peak of $83.5 hit earlier in April, as worries that higher interest rates could dampen growth kept investors on edge. The US Federal Reserve is set to deliver the final rate hike, while the ECB is expected to raise the borrowing cost three times in the next few months. On the other hand, the latest EIA report showed crude oil stocks in the US fell by 4.581 million barrels last week, above market projections and offering a somewhat bullish outlook for short-term demand. Also, bets increased that demand from China would remain strong after the GDP figures pointed to a sharper recovery.

Indian Shares Decline for 3rd Session
The BSE Sensex closed 160 points lower at 59,570 on Wednesday, sinking for a third consecutive session as the technology sector continued to book sharp losses. Infosys shares extended yesterday’s 9% plummet with a 1.5% pullback after recession fears for major economies led the giant to forecast that revenue growth will hit a six-year low this year. The dismal outlook for the sector also pressured HCL Technologies, TCS, and Tech Mahindra stocks to retreat between 1.7% and 1%. On the other hand, gains for banks limited the broader index’s decline, with Axis Bank closing 1.2% higher.

Russian Shares Halt 5-Day Win Streak
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early gains to close 0.4% lower at 2,606 on Wednesday, halting a five-session win streak as losses for energy producers and miners offset gains for banks. Transneft and Lukoil lost 1.4% and 1%, respectively, reflecting scrutiny in the sector as Russian oil prices hover relatively close to the $60/barrel price ceiling set by the European Union, sparking uncertainty over export stability. Meanwhile, lower steel prices and demand concerns from China pressured steel producers to close firmly lower, with Severstal and Mechel both dropping more than 2%. On the other hand, VTB added 0.8%, and preferred Sberbank shares rallied 1% to equal their ordinary counterpart.

European Stocks Momentum Fades
European equity markets were little changed on Wednesday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 down 0.1% from a 14-month high on Tuesday, dragged by tech and mining stocks while insurance companies rose. Domestically, the German DAX edged up slightly, led by a 4.5% gain in Commerzbank. In corporate headlines, Heineken reported a steeper-than-expected decline in Q1 beer sales, with a sharp drop in major markets Nigeria and Vietnam, but maintained its forecast for profit growth in 2023. ASML Holding, a key supplier to computer chip makers, beat expectations. Meanwhile, the latest CPI report showed Britain’s inflation rate slowed less than expected in March, supporting the view that the Bank of England will be delivering a 25 bps rate hike in May.

FTSE 100 Snaps Eight-Day Rally
Equities in London snapped eight consecutive days of gains on Wednesday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 finishing around the 7,900 mark, dragged by losses in the technology, energy, and materials sectors. A hot inflation reading in the UK brought price pressures back in focus while throwing some cold water into expectations that the Bank of England will soon end its aggressive tightening campaign. Ocado Group and Halma were among the top losers, down over 2% each. On the flip side, British American Tobacco rallied almost 4%.

Wall Street Drops for 2nd Session
US stocks remained under pressure for the second straight session on Thursday as investors continued to digest the latest batch of earnings and comments from Federal Reserve speakers. The Dow lost over 100 points, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slid 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. Tesla sank 9.7% after the electric vehicle manufacturer unveiled its lowest quarterly gross margin in two years, followed by more price cuts on its models. Similarly, AT&T plummeted 10.4% after it missed estimates of free cash flow. On the other hand, IBM ended in the green after it said margins were expanding. Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester supports for another rate hike to tame inflation while emphasizing the need to watch recent bank turmoil that could dampen the economy. On the economic front, initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose for the second week and continuous claims jumped to their highest since November 2021, the latest signal that the labor market is softening.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Last week, two leading economic institutions, the IFO and the IMF, released new assessments of the current crisis in the economic system. “This strategy of buying time has now come to an end“, was the basic message. Meanwhile, in several big capitalist countries, the central banks are trying to stabilize their national economies. Most recently, the US Federal Reserve, the Fed, met to stop inflation by raising interest rates. The recession beckons the German economy in 2023. On Monday, last week, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) published its current “World Economic Outlook” from April under the heading “A rocky road to recovery”.

In the preface to the report, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas writes unequivocally that “the world is entering a “risky phase” as economic growth remains low by historical standards and financial risks have increased without having averted inflation.“ The head of the IMF currently sees the greatest risk in the recent turbulence in the banking sector. „We live in a capitalist system and, according to Gourinchas, people often only look for “the next weakest link” instead of planning for the long term.“

Hard Landing Ahead? I Don`t Think So, Today!

The report itself revises the “tentative signs” that indicated as late as early 2023 that the global economy could achieve “a soft landing.” In view of persistently high inflation and the recent turbulence in the financial sector, this hope has “evaporated”. Global growth, measured by the average gross domestic product (GDP) of all economies worldwide, was still 3.4% in 2022, but will fall to at least 2.8% this year before possibly rising again to 3.0% in 2024, he said the IMF forecast.

Inflation Remains High

The poor prospects resulted from the enormously high inflation, the attempted countermeasures by the central banks, the ongoing war in Ukraine and “increasing geoeconomic fragmentation”. Global headline inflation is likely to decline to 7.0% in 2023 from 8.7% in 2022 due to lower commodity prices, but underlying (core) inflation is likely to decline even more slowly. However, i except that the us inflation will comes down this year 2023 until christmas to around 2-3%. But because of this green self conflict inflation experience, i wouldn`t be wonder, if the FED will hold high interest rates like today, at least until into bnext year 2024. May be one more hike in may!?

The “Economic Experts Survey” by the Ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy, released on last Thursday, last week, also shows that the global inflation rate will reach 7% this year, then 5.9% next year and also in 2026 another 5%. “For the coming year and 2026, inflation expectations have even risen somewhat,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “Inflation remains at very high levels.”

                 Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our all open 4XSetUps :

                 TradingView Symbol since entry       target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545       1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26       170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945       34420 22875
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434       35228 31148
long NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81       262.47 166.71
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299       17675 12586
long NYSE:BABA 2023/03/29 99.29       125.84 79.48
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09       63583.07 52516.76

And/Or Let`s Focus Shortly About The Price Action Of Gold While Todays Trading Session,
Because It Give Us More Aor Less A Good Sentiment About The So Called Risk Apettite In The Market

Gold Prices Fall to Lowest on the Month
Gold prices declined below $1975 an ounce on Wednesday, the lowest level so far this month, pressured by a slightly stronger dollar and declining expectations that the global monetary tightening will soon be over. Investors are currently pricing in the Fed, the ECB, and the BoE will continue to raise interest rates as inflation remains elevated, the economies avoid recession, and the labour market is still tight. Additionally, based on earnings from big US lenders, the banking sector is doing well despite the recent turmoil. Meanwhile, minutes from the latest RBA monetary policy meeting also suggested the rate hike pause was temporary.