2023/04/17 (212) Column

Work And/Or CFD`s
Back To Reality
And That With The Help Of Every Single D2D Edition Which Helps You
To Help Yourself To Make Better Decisions (Buying/Selling Or No Trading)
And That Not Only But Rather With Scenario 4XSetUps
So That You Don`t Just Generate Profits But Rather More & More Learning & Learning
With The Help Of Using Until 5 Different Angles About Financial Market Price Actions Daily


If you pursue another professional activity to earn your living, you must first organize your everyday life (i.e. your job and your CFD trading). And that only works if you formulate a time frame and/or trading framework. A time frame to get your life organized – and/or a trading frame also to know what to do while your CFD trading. By the way, on my homepage you can get learning videos and/or templates from my books about these topics.

That’s why I inform you daily, day by day, with Scenario 4XSetUps, with new old informations, even new informations with references. Analyze and evaluate them too, so that you, yes you, are better informed every day than all other financial market participants who do not read our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper – in order to make even better trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading).

Imagine this following pragmatic practical example, my dear faithful reader:
You have read, analyzed and/or evaluated todays Scenario 4XSetUp and made
the personal individual subjectively free self-determined decision to buy a few CFD`s on the DXY!

Everything so far so good! But we can go one step further also – if you want even 4 more steps.
And this by asking yourself after your trading decision (as in this fictional example of DXY):
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Technical Analysis 4XSetUp?
Is the technical picture of the price action a reason to buy/sell or do nothing?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Financial Market 4XSetUp?
Is the relationship to other price action a reason to buy/sell or not to trade the DXY?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Economic 4XSetUp?
Is the native economy of the DXY a reason to buy/sell or not to trade the DXY?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Central Banks 4XSetUp?
Is the native central bank of the DXY a reason to buy/sell or not to trade the DXY?

The advantage and/or much more sensible uselful pragmatic practical learning effect of this philosophical-psychological approach is self-evident; Actually needless to say! You either get 5:0 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 4:1 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 3:2 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 2:3 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 1:4 reasons to buy the DXY. And that originally just because of the Technical Analysis. That`s it – however you want it – it`s yours…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Russia Reports Territorial Gains At Battle Of Bakhmut

According to Russia, it has made territorial gains in the months-long battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. The Wagner mercenary group, which is fighting alongside the Russian army, has managed to capture “two districts on the northern and southern outskirts of the city,” the Defense Ministry said in Moscow on Saturday.

The Battle of Bakhmut has significant symbolic value for both Russia and Ukraine. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, retreating Ukrainian troops “deliberately” destroyed public infrastructure and residential buildings in order to halt the advance of Russian troops.

The AFP news agency was unable to independently check the situation on site. Both Russia and Ukraine are said to have suffered massive casualties in the battle for Bakhmut, which was home to 70,000 people before the war. Moscow reported on Thursday that Russian troops had managed to encircle Ukrainian troops in the city. Kiev had denied this and declared that it could continue to supply its soldiers with ammunition.

Elon Musk Wants To Know Ir:
SpaceX Is Planning A Test Flight Of The Giant Starship Rocket

The US aerospace company SpaceX is planning the first test flight of the most powerful giant rocket ever built, the Starship, for Monday. The launch is scheduled for 07:00 local time (14:00 CEST) from SpaceX’s Starbase facility in the US state of Texas. “Success maybe, excitement guaranteed,” wrote SpaceX founder Elon Musk.

In February, almost all of the first stage engines of the Starship rocket were successfully ignited during a test at the Boca Chica missile base. With it, astronauts should be able to travel to the moon and beyond.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Apple Offers 4.15% Interest
– A New Level Of The Banking Crisis?

It’s the news of the day: Apple is now offering 4.15% interest and could escalate the supposedly already subsided banking crisis in the USA! Because Apple offers interest rates that are more than ten times higher than the national average for banks in the USA – this should accelerate the outflow of money from banks again, especially since there were previously only US money market funds as an alternative to regular interest rates to compensate for inflation. A juicy dollar rally today, and yields on US government bonds are also rising significantly after the New Empire State Index was much better than expected, putting a significant damper on hopes that the Fed would cut interest rates anytime soon.

The US Federal Reserve Is Insolvent!

A central bank like the Fed can’t really go bankrupt (because it can print money at any time) – yet the US Federal Reserve is currently technically insolvent because its losses (over $200 billion this year) exceed its equity.

Any normal company would have to file for bankruptcy in such a situation, but the Fed manages with an accounting trick. The fact that the US Federal Reserve is now making such losses is the result of its misjudgment when it comes to inflation: it believed that it could continue to pour liquidity into the system when inflation was already clearly on the rise. Then she had to raise interest rates extremely quickly – and thus brings a lot of stress to the debt-addicted financial system.

Markets are now awaiting the rest of the US earnings season: This week’s highlights Tesla and Netflix.Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

EURUSD Holds Close To 1-Year High US10Y Consolidates Above 3.6% Brent Crude Approaches $85 Asian Stocks Rise In Cautious Trade
USDCNY Subdued Ahead Of GDP Data DE10Y At Over 1-Month High Arabica Coffee At Near 6-Month High Russian Stocks Extend 1-Year High
European Stocks Close Lower
UK Stocks End Virtually Flat
Wall Street Book Gains

Euro Holds Close To 1-Year High
The euro stabilized around the $1.10 level, remaining close to an over 12-month high of $1.1075 touched on April 14th, as the ECB is expected to continue with interest rate hikes. Eurozone policymakers are set to deliver two more 25 bps rate increases by mid-year to combat inflation. While the headline inflation in the Euro Area was the lowest in 13 months in March, both core and food inflation hit fresh records. Earlier this month, ECB’s Klaas Knot said it was unclear whether 50 bps or 25 bps would be needed. At the same time, R. Holzmann backed another 50 bps move, while P. Kazimir considered a slow down the pace of tightening.

Chinese Yuan Subdued Ahead Of GDP Data
The offshore yuan steadied around 6.87 per dollar, with market sentiment remaining subdued as investors braced for China’s gross domestic product report. The latter is expected to show the country’s economic growth at the fastest rate in a year during the first quarter. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China injected more liquidity into the financial system by rolling over maturing one-year medium-term lending facility loans for the fifth consecutive month in April. It also kept the interest rate unchanged at 2.75%. Last week, the currency was jolted after data revealed Chinese exports surged by a surprising 14.8% in March, at odds with market forecasts of a 7% fall, allaying some concerns about a slowing global economy.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Consolidates Above 3.6%
The 10-year US Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, consolidated above 3.6% on expectations of further rate hikes by the Fed. Concerns about a potential US recession and further stress in the banking sector eased amid better-than-expected results from several of the biggest banks. At the same time, investors were worried by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s comments leaning toward further policy tightening as both headline and core inflation remain well above the central bank’s 2% target. His views prompted investors to ramp up bets on another rate hike in June, following one next month, while scaling back expectations for rate cuts later in the year.

German Bund Yield At Over 1-Month High
The German 10-year yield extended gains towards 2.5%, its highest level since mid-March, as investors weighed prospects of further policy tightening in Europe and the US. The ECB is set to deliver a 25 bps rate increase in May and another 25 bps increase by mid-year after raising borrowing costs at the fastest pace on record to combat inflation. Still, some sources suggested policymakers remain divided on the size of a rate hike, with some of them advocating no change in May and others calling for a 50 bps move. Last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank stood ready to respond as necessary to preserve price and financial stability in the bloc, warning inflation was projected to remain high for a long period.

Brent Crude Approaches $85
Brent crude futures fell below $86 per barrel on Monday after 1.4% last week, as concerns mounted that further interest rate hikes, especially from the Fed, will hurt the growth outlook even more. However, GDP growth data for China due tomorrow should offer some relief for a fall in oil demand, with the IEA expecting the country to account for most of the 2023 demand increase. In its April Oil Market Report last week, the IEA forecasted world oil demand to climb by 2 million barrels per day to a record 101.9 million bpd this year and warned that a surprise production cut by OPEC+ will tighten the market more than initially thought and drive oil prices higher. Elsewhere, traders continued to fret about shrinking crude inventories at a key US storage hub, interrupted flows from Iraqi Kurdistan, and signs of slowing Russian oil exports.

Arabica Coffee Up To Near 6-Month High
Arabica coffee futures in the US extended their upward trend to $1.96 per pound in April, closing in on their highest level in 6 months, amid persistent concerns over tight supplies. Latest data showed ICE monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 4-month low of 710,687 bags. Also, the Colombia Coffee Growers Federation reported that March coffee exports in Colombia, the world’s second-largest arabica bean producer, decreased 19% y/y to 906,000 bags. In Brazil, IBGE also trimmed its forecast for the country’s arabica crop to 38.5 million bags in 2023. Meanwhile, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) projected another year of strong supply deficit in the coffee market, with a shortfall of 7.3 million bags, mainly due to arabica crop woes in Latin America’s top producers. The ICO also estimated 2022/23 global coffee consumption to increase by 1.7% y/y to 178.53 million bags.

Asian Stocks Rise in Cautious Trade
Asian equity markets rose on Monday, though investors remained cautious while assessing the outlook for inflation, growth and interest rates globally. Markets also geared up for more earnings reports from major US banks this week for further clues on the health of the world’s largest economy, as well as China’s gross domestic product report due for release on Tuesday. Shares in Australia, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and mainland China all advanced.

Russian Stocks Extend 1-Year High
The ruble-based Russia MOEX index extended early gains and closed 1.6% up at a one-year high of 2,596 on Monday, extending the 1.7% jump from the previous week as revised economic forecasts by the Economy Ministry spurred hopes of strong Russian growth. Moscow expects the GDP to grow by 1.3% this year, mainly on stronger consumer demand, while inflation is expected to end 2023 at 5.3%. Gains on the corporate front were carried by banks and miners. VTB shares jumped by 3.7%, while the TCS Group advanced 2.6% and Sberbank added 2.2%. While ending in the green, oil producers underperformed as the rally for Urals oil prices continued to raise concerns that oil cargoes could soon exceed the EU and G7’s $60/barrel price cap. Scrutiny is expected to remain in the sector as banks in major consumer India have already warned that they would not process payments for oil bought above the limit.

European Stocks Close Cautiously Lower
European stocks were little changed on Monday, as gains across travel and leisure and mining stocks were offset by losses in insurance and financials. Investors continued to assess the outlook for inflation, growth and interest rates globally, while US earnings season could shed more light on the state of the US economy. On the corporate front, Japan’s Sega agreed to launch a €706 million offer for Angry Birds maker Rovio, while John Wood Group has decided to engage with Apollo Management for a firm offer from the private equity firm for its last buyout price of 240 pence per share. Belgian group Aliaxis made a $2-billion non-binding cash offer for Finnish plumbing and heating systems maker Uponor and UBS won clearance by the US Fed for its state-back merger with Credit Suisse. The benchmark Stoxx 600 was virtually flat at 467 and the German DAX went down 0.1% to 15,790.

UK Stocks End Virtually Flat
Equities in London lost some of the initial momenta to close Monday’s session almost flat, with the benchmark FTSE 100 hovering below the 7,900 mark, as gains in the technology and materials sector only partly offset losses in financials. Despite some easing concerns about a US banking crisis, with several banks reporting better-than-expected quarterly results, investors were worried that tighter financial conditions would drag economies into recession. International Consolidated Airlines Group and RS Group were among the biggest gainers, up almost 3% each. Rio Tinto also enjoyed some respite, up more than 1%. On the other hand, names like Intermediate Capital Group and HSBC Holdings came under pressure, down roughly 1.5%.

Wall Street Book Gains
All three major US stock indexes ended in the green and added 0.3% each on Monday. Investors braced for a heavy week of corporate earnings while awaiting Fed speeches for clues on the central bank’s tightening path and the economy’s health. On the corporate side, State Street shares sank 9.2% after the bank’s first-quarter profit missed expectations, led by a drop in fee income due to the recent U.S. banking crisis. Charles Schwab rose 3.9% following upbeat quarterly results but warning about cash sorting. While banking heavyweights, including JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo, reported better-than-expected results last week, the focus now turns to smaller banks that were at the epicenter of the banking turmoil in March. Meantime, Alphabet fell 2.7% following a report that Samsung was considering replacing Google with Microsoft Corp’s Bing as the default search engine on its devices.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Last week, two leading economic institutions, the IFO and the IMF, released new assessments of the current crisis in the economic system. “This strategy of buying time has now come to an end“, was the basic message. Meanwhile, in several big capitalist countries, the central banks are trying to stabilize their national economies. Most recently, the US Federal Reserve, the Fed, met to stop inflation by raising interest rates. The recession beckons the German economy in 2023. On Monday, last week, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) published its current “World Economic Outlook” from April under the heading “A rocky road to recovery”.

In the preface to the report, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas writes unequivocally that “the world is entering a “risky phase” as economic growth remains low by historical standards and financial risks have increased without having averted inflation.“ The head of the IMF currently sees the greatest risk in the recent turbulence in the banking sector. „We live in a capitalist system and, according to Gourinchas, people often only look for “the next weakest link” instead of planning for the long term.“

Hard Landing Ahead? I Don`t Think So, Today!

The report itself revises the “tentative signs” that indicated as late as early 2023 that the global economy could achieve “a soft landing.” In view of persistently high inflation and the recent turbulence in the financial sector, this hope has “evaporated”. Global growth, measured by the average gross domestic product (GDP) of all economies worldwide, was still 3.4% in 2022, but will fall to at least 2.8% this year before possibly rising again to 3.0% in 2024, he said the IMF forecast.

Inflation Remains High

The poor prospects resulted from the enormously high inflation, the attempted countermeasures by the central banks, the ongoing war in Ukraine and “increasing geoeconomic fragmentation”. Global headline inflation is likely to decline to 7.0% in 2023 from 8.7% in 2022 due to lower commodity prices, but underlying (core) inflation is likely to decline even more slowly. However, i except that the us inflation will comes down this year 2023 until christmas to around 2-3%. But because of this green self conflict inflation experience, i wouldn`t be wonder, if the FED will hold high interest rates like today, at least until into bnext year 2024. May be one more hike in may!?

The “Economic Experts Survey” by the Ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy, released on last Thursday, last week, also shows that the global inflation rate will reach 7% this year, then 5.9% next year and also in 2026 another 5%. “For the coming year and 2026, inflation expectations have even risen somewhat,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “Inflation remains at very high levels.”

                 Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our all open 4XSetUps :

                 TradingView Symbol since entry       target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545       1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26       170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945       34420 22875
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434       35228 31148
long NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81       262.47 166.71
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299       17675 12586
long NYSE:BABA 2023/03/29 99.29       125.84 79.48
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09       63583.07 52516.76

And/Or Let`s Focus Shortly About The Price Action Of Gold While Todays Trading Session,
Because It Give Us More Aor Less A Good Sentiment About The So Called Risk Apettite In The Market

Gold Cuts Gains
Gold prices cut early gains to fall almost 1% to below $1990 an ounce on Monday, extending a 2% drop on Friday, as investors continued to assess the economic and monetary policy outlook. Markets are pricing in a nearly 87% chance of a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate in May. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to prolong its tightening next month though the size of the rate increase is still uncertain. Despite the recent two-day weakness, the bullion holds close to levels not seen since March last year, prompted by a weaker dollar and prospects that major central banks, especially the Fed, are nearing the end of their hawkish campaign. The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its monetary policy unchanged on Friday, joining other central banks of Australia, Canada, India, and South Korea.