2023/04/16 (211) Column

Work And/Or CFD`s
Back To Reality
And That With The Help Of Every Single D2D Edition Which Helps You
To Help Yourself To Make Better Decisions (Buying/Selling Or No Trading)
And That Not Only But Rather With Technical Analysis 4XSetUps
So That You Don`t Just Generate Profits But Rather More & More Learning & Learning
With The Help Of Using Until 5 Different Angles About Financial Market Price Actions Daily


If you pursue another professional activity to earn your living, you must first organize your everyday life (i.e. your job and your CFD trading). And that only works if you formulate a time frame and/or trading framework. A time frame to get your life organized – and/or a trading frame also to know what to do while your CFD trading. By the way, on my homepage you can get learning videos and/or templates from my books about these topics.

That’s why I inform you daily, day by day, with Technical Analysis 4XSetUps, with new old informations, even technical analysis, with references. Analyze and evaluate them too, so that you, yes you, are better informed every day than all other financial market participants who do not read our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper – in order to make even better trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading).

Imagine this following pragmatic practical example, my dear faithful reader:
You have read, analyzed and/or evaluated todays Technical Analysis 4XSetUp and made
the personal individual subjectively free self-determined decision to buy a few CFD`s on the DXY!

Everything so far so good! But we can go one step further also – if you want even 4 more steps.
And this by asking yourself after your trading decision (as in this fictional example of DXY):
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Scenario 4XSetUp?
Is Russia`s war of aggression against Ukraine a reason to buy/sell or do nothing?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Financial Market 4XSetUp?
Is the relationship to other price action a reason to buy/sell or not to trade the DXY?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Economic 4XSetUp?
Is the native economy of the DXY a reason to buy/sell or not to trade the DXY?
Should I buy/sell or do nothing about the DXY based on the Central Banks 4XSetUp?
Is the native central bank of the DXY a reason to buy/sell or not to trade the DXY?

The advantage and/or much more sensible uselful pragmatic practical learning effect of this philosophical-psychological approach is self-evident; Actually needless to say! You either get 5:0 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 4:1 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 3:2 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 2:3 reasons to buy the DXY. Or 1:4 reasons to buy the DXY. And that originally just because of the Technical Analysis. That`s it – however you want it – it`s yours…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Surprising Statements:
Wagner Boss Prigozhin Calls On Putin To End The War

The head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, Y. Prigoshin, has caused a stir with a text about a possible end to the war in Ukraine. Many Ukrainian media in particular referred to a blog entry by the 61-year-old at the weekend, in which he allegedly called for an end to the dispute. Prigozhin later clarified that the main message of his text was that there must be an “honest fight”. Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine a year ago. Fighting also continued during the weekend’s Orthodox Easter celebrations. The federal government is committed to EU sanctions against Russia’s nuclear industry. Meanwhile, our German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock swears by the determination and unity of the G7 towards Russia. Ahead of the NATO summit in the summer, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is pushing for security guarantees for his country.

Prigozhin Text Causes A Stir

In Prigozhin’s blog entry published on Friday it says: “Today it is necessary for the state power and for society to put some thick point behind the special military operation.” In Russia, the war is officially referred to as a “special military operation”. Prigozhin continued: “The ideal variant would be to announce the end of the military special operation and to declare that Russia has achieved all of its planned goals – and in a sense we have indeed achieved them.” And: “For Russia there is always a risk that the situation at the front could deteriorate after the start of the (Ukrainian) counter-offensive.” Experts expect an Ukrainian counter offensive in the coming weeks. According to Prigozhin, the only option at the moment is to “get stuck” in the occupied territories. However, this would mean a retreat from Russia’s actual war aims.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Hope For Interest Rate Turnaround By The Fed Against Recession!

US producer prices, which were lower than expected, caused euphoria on the Wall Street indices yesterday – the large tech stocks from the Nasdaq in particular benefited from hopes of a turnaround by the Fed and ignored the fact that the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate turnaround only comes when the US economy falls into recession!

Important data are coming today that show the likelihood of an imminent recession in the US: US retail sales at 2.30 pm and the start of the US reporting season with the figures from the banks this afternoon. Above all, the outlook of the banks and the statements on lending and bank deposits are decisive. While equity markets rallied on hopes of a turnaround by the Fed, bond markets’ expectations for the next rate hike have remained unchanged – government bond yields rose, not fell, yesterday.

Wall Street: Why I’m Now A Bull Convert!

Wall Street got off to a good start today, but then weak US retail sales fueled recession concerns on the one hand, and Fed member Harker made it clear that the Fed would have to hike interest rates further on the other. According to Harker, this will apply above all when the banking crisis calms down again (which actually seems to be the case at the moment – strong figures from the large US banks today). Then today at 4 p.m. the extremely sharp rise in Americans’ inflation expectations in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey – the subsequent rise in US Treasury yields then spoiled sentiment on Wall Street. But otherwise of course everything is totally bullish because the Fed is cutting interest rates even if there is no recession and the US stock markets are just a little very expensive.Forex 10Y Government Bond Yields Commodties Stock Markets

Chinese Yuan Hits 3-Week High 10Y Treasury Yield Rises Above 3.5% Brent Crude Trades Around $86 Asian Bourses Enjoy Weekly Gains
Swiss Franc Soars To 2-Year High Russian Bonds Under Pressure Wheat Approaches 20-Month Low Russian Shares Close At 1-Year High
European Stocks Close Week Positive
FTSE 100 Approaches 4th Weekly Gain
Wall Street Falls On Rate Worries

Chinese Yuan Hits 3-Week High
The offshore yuan appreciated past 6.85 per dollar, hitting its highest levels in three weeks as signs of cooling inflation in the US bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve might be nearing the end of its tightening cycle. The currency was also lifted by data showing Chinese exports surged unexpectedly 14.8% in March despite market forecasts of a 7% fall, allaying some concerns about a slowing global economy. Still, investors remained cautious as softer-than-anticipated Chinese CPI figures raised the possibility of interest rate cuts from the central bank. China’s consumer inflation eased to 0.7% in March, the least since September 2021, while producer inflation fell to a 33-month low of -2.5%.

Swiss Franc Soars To 2-Year High
The Swiss franc strengthened past 0.89 per USD in April, the highest since January 2021, lifted by weakness in the dollar and as investors gained confidence that the turmoil in the Swiss banking sector is over. Data from the Swiss National Bank showed that sight deposits fell by CHF 31 billion on the week ending April 7th, the second biggest weekly decline on record, suggesting Credit Suisse may have already started repaying some of the emergency liquidity offered by the SNB. Also, SNB policymakers have repeatedly signaled their willingness to intervene in currency markets to support the franc and combat unsustainable price growth. March data showed the annual inflation slowed to 2.9%, more than market expectations but still remained not far from a 29-year high of 3.5% hit last year. Meanwhile, it is increasingly becoming clear that the US Federal Reserve is set to pause its tightening cycle soon after data showed both headline and producer inflation slowed more than expected.10-Year Treasury Yield Rises Above 3.5%
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note jumped to over 3.5% on Friday, the highest in two weeks, as investors continued to monitor the latest economic data for insights on the Federal Reserve’s path for the rest of the year. US retail sales contracted more than expected in March, although upward revisions for the prior month softened worries about low consumer activity. At the same time, strong corporate results from US banks downplayed systemic risks from the bank runs in March, giving the Fed more room to increase interest rates. Even though the 10-year yield remains over 20bps higher than the 7-month low touched this month, investors continue to bet that cooler inflation and softer labor market conditions will force the Federal Reserve to cut its funds rate on three occasions this year. Earlier data showed that producer and consumer prices were lower than expected in March, while unemployment claims and non-farm payrolls showed some job market softening.

Russian Bonds Remain Under Pressure
The yield on the Russian 10-year OFZ jumped to 11.55%, adding 25bps since the start of April as a batch of economic data highlighted fiscal concerns for the Russian Federal government. A sharp drop in exports caused the country’s current account surplus to narrow considerably in the first quarter as the West’s oil embargo limited Moscow’s vital energy revenues. Also, Russia’s budget deficit was at a record-breaking RUB 2.4 trillion in the first quarter of 2023, showing the Kremlin will not be able to meet budget targets for the year unless Urals oil prices rebound close to the soaring levels of 2022. The data suggests Moscow may continue to tap into its National Wealth Fund or expand borrowing through OFZs, increasing the supply of bonds. Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry stated it might issue OFZs in foreign currencies to smooth the exclusion of Russian bonds from Western financial markets.

Brent Crude Trades Around $86, Heads For 1.1% Weekly Gain
Brent crude futures were around $86 a barrel on Friday, holding close to levels not seen since January. They were also on track for a 1.1% weekly gain, the fourth straight week of increases, supported by tight global oil supplies and a weaker dollar. Earlier this month, OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing an output cut of 1.16 million bpd from May until the end of 2023, but in its monthly report, the cartel warned the usual additional seasonal demand from the US could be hit by weakening in the economy due to high interest rates and the impact China’s reopening, which has not been sufficient enough to reverse the declining trend in global refinery intakes. Meanwhile, the IEA said in its April Oil Market Report that world oil demand would climb by 2 million bpd in 2023 to a record 101.9 million bpd. At the same time, extra cuts by OPEC+ would push the world oil supply down 400K bpd by the end of 2023, aggravating an expected oil supply deficit in the second half of the year.

Wheat Approaches 20-Month Low
Wheat futures in the US fell below the $6.7 per bushel mark in April, approaching the 20-month low of $6.6 on March 23rd as the USDA’s WASDE report pointed to a strong global supply. The USDA raised global supply projections for the current marketing year by 700 thousand tonnes, mainly due to larger beginning stocks in the Middle East and Africa. Also, domestic demand was lowered by 25 million bushels due to smaller feed and residual usage. Also, supply remained underpinned by Russia’s record-high harvest of 153.8 million tonnes in 2022, which drove farmers to turn to international customers to empty silos. The world’s top exporter is estimated to sell up to 60 million tonnes of wheat on foreign markets in the current marketing year. Still, uncertainty remains about the future of Ukrainian exports, as Russia keeps on opposing the extension of the deal guaranteeing a trade corridor for grain out of the Black Sea.

Asian Bourses Enjoy Respite, Post Weekly Gains
Asian equity markets rallied on Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street overnight as signs of cooling inflation raised hopes that the Federal Reserve and other central banks might be approaching the end of its tightening cycle. The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its monetary policy unchanged, joining other central banks from Australia, Canada, India, and South Korea that had already halted rate hikes. Japanese stocks led gains among the region’s major markets, with the NIKKEI 225 jumping more than 1% to close just shy of the 28,500 mark. Other Asian benchmarks, including the ASX 200, KOSPI, the Hang Seng, and the Shanghai Composite, added between 0.4% and 0.6%. All the indexes referenced above recorded weekly gains.

Russian Shares Close At 1-Year High
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early losses and closed 0.4% higher at 2,554 on Friday, the highest in one year, to mark a 1.7% gain on the week with broad-based support from all major sectors of the Moscow Exchange. Novatek jumped 2.2% amid the strong momentum for Russian gas producers, offsetting a mixed session for oil producers. The rally for Urals oil prices raised concerns that oil cargoes could soon exceed the EU and G7’s $60/barrel price cap. Scrutiny is expected to remain in the sector as banks in major consumer India have already warned that they would not process payments for oil bought above the limit, and the Kremlin stated it would not sell for any party wishing to abide by the ceiling. Meanwhile, NorNickel added 2.6% after purchasing its own shares through a digital financial asset issuer as part of a new employee incentive scheme.

European Stocks Close Week On Positive Note
European stocks rose on Friday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 up 0.5% to an over 9-week high and the German DAX up 0.5% to its highest level since early 2022, led by a 3% advance in banks following strong results from US banks JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Also, the CAC 40 continued to break fresh record highs above the 7500 level.

FTSE 100 Approaches 7,900 Mark, Posts Fourth Weekly Gain
Equities in London advanced for a sixth consecutive session on Friday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 finishing just shy of the 7,900 mark, driven by gains in the financials and real estate sectors. Better-than-expected quarterly results from big US banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, pointed to resilience in the US financial system while sparking a rally across banking shares.

Wall Street Falls On Rate Worries
The Dow finished more than 140 points lower on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 lost 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, as a slew of earnings results and new data gave Fed more room to continue with rate hikes. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment unexpectedly increased to 63.5 in April of 2023 with inflation for the year-ahead gouge jumping to a five-month high of 4.6%. Meanwhile, earning results showed that big financial companies are doing well despite of recent banking turmoil. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue triggering a rally in bank shares. Also, BlackRock assets swelled and deposits at JP Morgan unexpectedly rose as investors moved funds following the collapse of several banks.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Last week, two leading economic institutions, the IFO and the IMF, released new assessments of the current crisis in the economic system. “This strategy of buying time has now come to an end“, was the basic message. Meanwhile, in several big capitalist countries, the central banks are trying to stabilize their national economies. Most recently, the US Federal Reserve, the Fed, met to stop inflation by raising interest rates. The recession beckons the German economy in 2023. On Monday, last week, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) published its current “World Economic Outlook” from April under the heading “A rocky road to recovery”.

In the preface to the report, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas writes unequivocally that “the world is entering a “risky phase” as economic growth remains low by historical standards and financial risks have increased without having averted inflation.“ The head of the IMF currently sees the greatest risk in the recent turbulence in the banking sector. „We live in a capitalist system and, according to Gourinchas, people often only look for “the next weakest link” instead of planning for the long term.“

Hard Landing Ahead? I Don`t Think So, Today!

The report itself revises the “tentative signs” that indicated as late as early 2023 that the global economy could achieve “a soft landing.” In view of persistently high inflation and the recent turbulence in the financial sector, this hope has “evaporated”. Global growth, measured by the average gross domestic product (GDP) of all economies worldwide, was still 3.4% in 2022, but will fall to at least 2.8% this year before possibly rising again to 3.0% in 2024, he said the IMF forecast.

Inflation Remains High

The poor prospects resulted from the enormously high inflation, the attempted countermeasures by the central banks, the ongoing war in Ukraine and “increasing geoeconomic fragmentation”. Global headline inflation is likely to decline to 7.0% in 2023 from 8.7% in 2022 due to lower commodity prices, but underlying (core) inflation is likely to decline even more slowly. However, i except that the us inflation will comes down this year 2023 until christmas to around 2-3%. But because of this green self conflict inflation experience, i wouldn`t be wonder, if the FED will hold high interest rates like today, at least until into bnext year 2024. May be one more hike in may!?

The “Economic Experts Survey” by the Ifo Institute and the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy, released on last Thursday, last week, also shows that the global inflation rate will reach 7% this year, then 5.9% next year and also in 2026 another 5%. “For the coming year and 2026, inflation expectations have even risen somewhat,” says ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “Inflation remains at very high levels.”

                 Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our all open 4XSetUps :

                 TradingView Symbol since entry       target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545       1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26       170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945       34420 22875
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434       35228 31148
long NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81       262.47 166.71
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299       17675 12586
long NYSE:BABA 2023/03/29 99.29       125.84 79.48
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09       63583.07 52516.76

And/Or Let`s Focus Shortly About The Price Action Of Gold While Todays Trading Session,
Because It Give Us More Aor Less A Good Sentiment About The So Called Risk Apettite In The Market

Gold Prices Ease on Friday but Set to Gain on the Week
Gold prices went down more than 2% to below $2000 an ounce on Friday, as the dollar rebounded and as investors continue to adjust their expectations for the monetary policy and the economic outlook. The Fed is still seen delivering a 25bps hike next month although there are increasing expectations it could pause the tightening cycle after that. Despite Friday’s fall, the bullion is up 0.8% on the week and holds close to levels not seen since March last year, prompted by a weaker dollar, and prospects that major central banks, and especially the Fed, are nearing the end of the tightening cycle. The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its monetary policy unchanged on Friday, joining other central banks from Australia, Canada, India and South Korea that already halted rate hikes.