2023/04/13 (210) Column

Work And/Or CFD`s
Back To Reality
And That With The Help Of Every Single D2D Edition Which Helps You
To Help Yourself To Make Better Decisions (Buying/Selling Or No Trading)
And That With The Joy Of Making Decissions As A Basic Ressources
So That You Generate Profits With The Help Of Using Until 5 Different 4XSetUps Daily
And That First And/Or Foremost Because You Have All 3 Basic Resources At Your Disposal


Reading, analyzing, evaluating
– that’s why I`m writing our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper daily, day by day.
And that for you too, yes, you, my dear, loyal reader. Because I not only claim that you make better trading decisions than all other financial market participants, who don’t read mine, ours, DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper. No! I also want you to learn something every trading day. And that day after day. So that you can say for yourself, after a week, after a month, after a quarter, let alone after a year, that your market participation in the financial market is now of course at an higher and/or broader level.

In order to be able to make better trading decisions, I have formulated the Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper into five different 4XSetUps. I have made use of the knowledge of combinatorics. Combinatorics is a sub-discipline of mathematics that deals with finite or countably infinite discrete structures and is therefore also assigned to the generic term discrete mathematics. Combinatorics is about determining the number of possible arrangements or selections of objects. And that`s why I can even much more better classify financial market informations about every price action semantically and mathematically with the help of combinatorics in order to make better trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading).

That’s all well and good, my dear loyal reader, but if you don’t have all 3 basic resources available (time, money, joy to make decisions), then reading, analyzing and/or evaluating my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper will do you no good. Like every other financial market info service, by the way (Bloomberg and/ CNBC incl.). Because sooner or later you will fail:

Because without the joy of making decsions, you can have as much time and/or money as you want.
But if you don`t have the joy of making decisions, how will you operate with the time and/or money you have in your trading account?

That`s why, the first very thing to do is, the very very first thing, and that even also before opening a trading account (preferably at one of my 9 CFD Online Brokers), is to ti make the decision to learn to joy to making decisions, with your capital, while the time you take, daily, day by day. And that, if you have another main job, even more so! So that you can competently concentrate on the development of the price action every day, daily, day by day, in a detailed and/or overview clear manner. So, please also visit my homepage – on which numerous templates on the subject of time (as a basic resource) are available.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

PUTIN: Health leak!
One of the best kept secrets in the Kremlin

Russian President Vladimir Putin has apparently been diagnosed with cancer. According to media reports, this emerges from the documents about the Ukraine war that were leaked in the USA. Accordingly, Putin suffers from pancreatic cancer and an early form of Parkinson’s. There had been rumors in the past that Putin was seriously ill. The papers also show that senior Kremlin officials intend to lose the war in Ukraine in order to sabotage and then overthrow Putin.

“Putin’s state of health is one of the best-kept secrets in the Kremlin,” says WELT correspondent Christoph Wanner. It is quite possible that the wish is the father of the thought.

Beheading video shocks the world
– Wagner mercenaries alleged perpetrators

A video allegedly showing the beheading of a Ukrainian prisoner of war by Russian fighters has caused horror far beyond Ukraine. Observers from the United Nations in Ukraine and Czech President Petr Pavel were shocked. “The long history of Russian impunity must finally end,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The Kremlin in Moscow, however, questioned the authenticity of the video. In fact, this had not yet been finally verified by an independent party. A former Russian mercenary claims to have “clearly” identified his former comrades as the perpetrators.

A video of around one and a half minutes appeared on the Internet on Wednesday night. It shows one man in uniform being beheaded by another. The perpetrator wears a white marking on his clothing that is typical for Russian soldiers. In addition to checking the authenticity, an independent analysis of the time of the recording is still pending.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

After Thursday’s hefty gains in Big Tech stocks, it’s those stocks that are capturing and weighing on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 today. In addition, the retail sales data for March are very weak. A sign that consumers are starting to step on the brakes. The Dow Jones is also weighed down by Boeing shares. Deliveries of the 737 Max must be temporarily suspended. As far as banks are concerned, investors breathe easy. All numbers were above targets this morning and many have confirmed the prospects. United Health and BlackRock also report encouraging numbers.

However, let`s take a news flyover of the different financial market sub-sectors to get a detailed overview of today`s trading session…

Forex
Dollar Falls for 3rd Day
Japanese Yen Gains on Dollar Weakness

10Y Government Bond Yields
Treasury Yields Retreat Following PPI
German 10-Year Bond Yield Stabilizes Above 2.3%

Commodties
Gold Rises to Over 1-Year High
Brent Crude Prices Trade Around $87

Stock Markets
US Stocks Rally on Fed Pause Hopes
FTSE 100 Rises for Fifth Session
DAX Rises to 15-Month High, CAC Hits Record High
MOEX Edges Higher on Thursday
Asian Stocks Mostly DeclineDollar Falls for 3rd Day
The dollar index extended losses for a third straight day to below 101 on Thursday, closing in on the lowest levels since April 2022, amid increasing prospects that the Fed would soon pause the tightening cycle with some investors even betting on rate cuts by year-end. Fresh data showed headline producer and consumer prices eased more than expected and initial claims rose for the first time in three weeks. Meanwhile, FOMC minutes showed officials considerably scaled back the expectations of aggressive rate hikes this year and that the collapse of two regional banks would likely tip the economy into recession later this year. Korean won, and Australian and New Zealand dollars appreciated more than 1% while Euro, Yen, and British Pound were up around 0.5%. However, today USDRSD decreased to a 12-month low of 106.2, GBPUSD increased to a 44-week high of 1.2529 and/or EURUSD increased to a 12-month high of 1.1033 also.

Japanese Yen Gains on Dollar Weakness
The Japanese yen appreciated past 133 per dollar amid a general greenback weakness, as softer-than-expected US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would soon stop its tightening campaign. Meanwhile, minutes from the Fed’s March policy meeting showed members were still leaning toward another rate hike in May despite growing recession fears in the US. The yen also remained under pressure after Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that inflation in Japan would fall below the central bank’s 2% target toward the middle of the year, emphasizing the BOJ will stick to its ultra-easy monetary policy until price stability is achieved. Meanwhile, the IMF recently stated in its global financial stability report the BOJ could help prevent abrupt policy changes later by allowing more flexibility in its yield curve control policy.

Treasury Yields Retreat Following PPI
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to under 3.4%, heading toward the seven-month low of 3.28% touched on April 5th as evidence of slowing inflation in the US economy strengthened bets that the Federal Reserve could cut rates multiple times this year. After data revealed that consumer inflation fell more than expected in March, another report showed that producer prices fell by 0.5%, the most since the pandemic-induced decline in April 2020. Core producer prices also decreased, raising hopes that lower core consumer inflation could follow. Meanwhile, the March Fed minutes disclosed that the collapse of two regional banks could tip the economy into a recession later this year, further supporting government debt. Money markets now price two 25bps rate cuts in the third quarter and one in the fourth quarter.

German 10-Year Bond Yield Stabilizes Above 2.3%
The German 10-year yield stabilized above 2.3%, as investors weighed prospects of further policy tightening in Europe against softer-than-expected US inflation data. The ECB is seen delivering a 25 bps rate increase in May and another 25 bps hike by mid-year, after increasing borrowing costs at the fastest pace on record to combat stubbornly high inflation. Still, some sources suggested policymakers remain divided on how much to raise interest rates, with some officials advocating no change in May, while few others arguing for another 50 bps hike. Earlier this month, ECB’s Klaas Knot said it was unclear whether 50 bps would be needed or if 25 was enough and Robert Holzmann backed another 50 bps move, while Peter Kazimir said the ECB could perhaps slow down the pace of its increases. Elsewhere, the latest CPI report showed US inflation slowed more than expected in March, possibly reducing the odds that the Fed will continue to hike interest rates after next month’s meeting.

Gold Rises to Over 1-Year High
Gold prices rose above $2040 an ounce on Thursday, the highest since March 2022, boosted by a softer dollar after data showed that the US inflation and labor market are cooling, raising expectations the Fed could halt interest rate hikes or even cut them soon. Both headline producer and consumer inflation slowed more than expected while weekly claims surprised on the upside. Also, FOMC minutes showed the Fed sees more policy firming as appropriate, but some officials considered a pause in the tightening cycle in March due to the banking turmoil.

Brent Crude Prices Trade Around $87
Brent crude futures hovered at three-month highs of $87 per barrel on Thursday, following a 3.7% jump in the previous two sessions, as investors weigh the supply and demand outlook. In its latest monthly report, OPEC left its world oil demand growth estimates unchanged at 2.3 million bpd, but warned that the usual additional seasonal demand from the US could be hit by any weakening in the economy due to high interest rates. At the same time, the cartel noticed that the impact of the recent reopening of China has still not been sufficient to reverse the declining trend in global refinery intakes. Early this month, OPEC+ surprised markets by announcing an output cut of 1.16 million bpd from May until the end of 2023, justified as a “precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the market”. At the same time, slowing oil shipments from Russia and halted pipeline flows from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have also offered oil prices some support.

Asian Stocks Mostly Decline
Asian equity markets mostly fell on Thursday, taking cues from a negative lead on Wall Street as the Federal Reserve signaled that it is still leaning toward another interest rate hike in May despite projecting a “mild recession” in the US later this year in the wake of the recent banking crisis. Fears of a looming US recession also overshadowed softer-than-expected US inflation data. Meanwhile, investors will be assessing a slew of economic reports in the Asia-Pacific region, including Australian unemployment and Chinese trade data. Shares in Australia, Hong Kong and mainland China declined, while Japanese and South Korean stocks fluctuated.

MOEX Edges Higher on Thursday
The MOEX Russia index closed 0.2% higher at 2,544 on Thursday, remaining close to the one-year high touched this week as investors digested key economic data and monitored dividend announcements from blue chips traded in Moscow. The annual inflation rate in Russia fell sharply to 3.5 percent in March of 2023, the lowest since July of 2020 and compared to 11 percent in the previous month, as the base year started to include the initial economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Still, the Russian central bank persistently warns that the inflation rate will trend higher later in the year due to a tight labor market and stable ruble depreciation. Banks led the gains on the corporate front, erasing losses from the prior session with a 6.7% jump for the Bank of Saint Petersburg. On the other hand, Sovcomflot fell 2.6%, extending yesterday’s selloff as investors continued to digest underwhelming dividend payments.

DAX Rises to 15-Month High, CAC Hits Record High
European equity markets on Thursday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 up 0.4% to above 464, the highest in over five weeks. The German DAX rose to 15,725 for the first time since January 2022 and the French CAC 40 hit a new record high above 7,480 on hopes the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle might end soon as more US data pointed out that inflationary pressures are easing and the labor market is slowing down. On the corporate front, LVMH, the world’s largest luxury company, reported a 17% rise in Q1 sales, more than double analysts’ expectations, following China’s reopening. Britain’s biggest retailer Tesco forecast flat profit in its new financial year after a 6.3% fall in 2022/23, on the back of soaring inflation.

FTSE 100 Rises for Fifth Session
Equities in London advanced for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 finishing just shy of the 7,900 mark, driven by gains in the consumer discretionary and materials sectors. The UK economy stagnated in February after civil service and teachers’ strikes hit output in the services sector, official figures show. Meanwhile, investors digested a softer-than-expected US inflation reading, which raised bets that the Federal Reserve rate-hike cycle is nearing an end. Among single stocks, big miner Antofagasta rose almost 3%, leading the FTSE 100 higher. On the other hand, Imperial Brands slipped 2% after the tobacco group said its revenue for the first half of 2023 would be below a year earlier figures.

US Stocks Rally on Fed Pause Hopes
The Dow closed 383 points higher on Thursday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rallied 1.3% and 2%, respectively, as fresh factory-gate inflation and jobs data came in softer than expected, rising hope that the Federal Reserve might be approaching the end of its tightening cycle. The producer price index, which gauges the prices received for final demand products, fell 0.5% over the previous month in March, while analysts expected a flat reading. Also, labor market data softened as initial jobless claims for the week ended April 8, hit its highest level since January 2022. Yesterday, Fed minutes of the March monetary policy meeting showed officials are predicting a recession this year and the likelihood of another rate hike in May. On the corporate side, mega-cap tech stocks gained ground, as Amazon (+4.6%), Apple (+3.4%), Meta (+3%), and Alphabet (+2.7%) advanced. On the other hand, Harley-Davidson declined 1.7% after its CFO decided to leave the company at the end of this month.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

We are focusing again this week on the BITCOIN Future in the Technical Analysis 4XSetUp. I have received most of the reactions to the BTC, so I will not hold back my personal individual subjective opinion. The fight for the 30000 should break out this week. After receiving a medium term long term buy signal last week – when the 100 SMA crossed the 200 SMA to the upside.

DAX outperformed Wall Street.
What can be expected about the stockmarkets, especially the DAX, after Easter this week and how will be the US job market be proced in? These are probably maybe the most important questions to be answered while this week. And of course in line with the latest new US inflation data from March 2023, from wednesday this week.

However, we are and will remain long in the DAX Future – even if we nearlyx almost lost our nerves a few days ago, while the last few weeks. As we we`re stopped out – but came back at leasz. That`s why let’s take an honestg look back: After we had already seen a new high for the year last week, the DAX Index slowed down again to its range from February. In a direct comparison with Wall Street, however, he was stronger. The Nasdaq 100 Index also had an interim annual high in 2023. But I won’t go into that in more detail; because I’m still a bit disappointed because I had to finish our short 4xSetUp in the NDX with a loss. To avoid further losses. Nevertheless, we are now indirectly also long in the technology sector with the TESLA share and/or ALIBABA share. Because I still don’t believe today in an another tech bullmarket in the US; which is why I formulated long 4XSetUps for the DOW and/or DAX Future – which is even less technology-heavy. And should the tech market rise, then we are fully in with TESLA shares from California and/or Chinese ALIBABA shares from the NASDAQ. And if you like it even more conservative, you can buy the BMW shares and/or the LVMH shares instead of the two shares, as I formulated weeks ago.But don’t run after stocks that have already gotten off to a good start. It`s basically better to wait a few weaker days, maybe even an handful of weeks. Before you buy some cfd`s on i.e. TESLA, ALIBABA and/or BMW, like LVMH, shares, for the next few weeks, while possibly just starting a new bull market. Because the path up and/or down in the price action is rarely a daily, weekly, let alone monthly, one-way street.

Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our other still open 4XSetUps yet :

                 TradingView Symbol since entry       target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545       1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26       170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945       34420 22875
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434       35228 31148
long NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81       262.47 166.71
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299       17675 2586
long NYSE:BABA 2023/03/29 99.29       125.84 79.48
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09       63583.07 52516.76

However,
todays producer prices for final demand in the US fell 0.5% mom in March of 2023.
It`s the biggest decline since April of 2020, compared to forecasts of a flat reading. Two-thirds of the decline can be attributed to a 1% decrease in prices for final demand goods, namely gasoline (-11.7%). The indexes for diesel fuel, residential natural gas, jet fuel, electric power, and fresh and dry vegetables also fell. Meanwhile, prices for services edged 0.3% lower, also the largest decline since April of 2020, mainly due to a 7.3% drop in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling. The indexes for truck transportation of freight, portfolio management, fuels and lubricants retailing, loan services (partial), and automobiles and automobile parts retailing also moved down. Year-on-year, producer prices increased 2.7%, the least since January of 2021 and below expectations of 3%. The core rate eased to 3.4% as expected but core prices went down 0.1%.

The prices apply ex works – i.e. before the products are further processed or sold. They give an early signal for the development of consumer prices. Inflation in the USA had recently eased noticeably: the annual rate of inflation fell by a full percentage point to 5.0% in March. This is the lowest inflation figure since May 2021. The Federal Reserve can look back on the abating of the wave of inflation after nine rate hikes in a row as a stage victory, even if its target of an inflation rate of 2.0% is still not in sight. That`s why we stay long with our 4XSetUps (like describe in the table above) as we are.