2023/04/12 (209) Column

Work And/Or CFD`s
Back To Reality
And That With The Help Of Every Single D2D Edition Which Helps You
To Help Yourself To Make Better Decisions (Buying/Selling Or No Trading)
And That Also With The Help Of Money As A Basic Ressources
So That You Generate Profits With The Help Of Using Until 5 Different 4XSetUps Daily
And That First And/Or Foremost Because You Have All 3 Basic Resources At Your Disposal


Reading, analyzing, evaluating
– that’s why I`m writing our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper daily, day by day.
And that for you too, yes, you, my dear, loyal reader. Because I not only claim that you make better trading decisions than all other financial market participants, who don’t read mine, ours, DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper. No! I also want you to learn something every trading day. And that day after day. So that you can say for yourself, after a week, after a month, after a quarter, let alone after a year, that your market participation in the financial market is now of course at an higher and/or broader level.

In order to be able to make better trading decisions, I have formulated the Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper into five different 4XSetUps. I have made use of the knowledge of combinatorics. Combinatorics is a sub-discipline of mathematics that deals with finite or countably infinite discrete structures and is therefore also assigned to the generic term discrete mathematics. Combinatorics is about determining the number of possible arrangements or selections of objects. And that`s why I can even much more better classify financial market informations about every price action semantically and mathematically with the help of combinatorics in order to make better trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading).

That’s all well and good, my dear loyal reader, but if you don’t have all 3 basic resources available (time, money, joy to make decisions), then reading, analyzing and/or evaluating my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper will do you no good. Like every other financial market info service, by the way (Bloomberg and/ CNBC incl.). Because sooner or later you will fail:

Because without money, you can have as much time and joy in making decisions as you want.
But if you don`t have money, even you don`t have capital to transfer in a trading account, how are you going to get involved with the financial market price action and/or news reading at all?

That`s why, the first very thing to do is, the very very first thing, and that even also before opening a trading account (preferably at one of my 9 CFD Online Brokers), is to accumulate capital, to accumulate money, so that you have someting to trade – even to make trading deccsions (buy/sell or not trade). And that, if you have another main job, even more so! So that you can competently concentrate on the development of the price action every day, daily, day by day, in a detailed and/or overview clear manner. So, please also visit my homepage – on which numerous templates on the subject of time (as a basic resource) are available.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Cannon Fodder?
Now Putin has a problem!
That’s how radical he wants to solve it

The Russian Senate has passed a controversial law allowing electronic conscription into the military. The new system is “more practical,” emphasized Senate President Valentina Matviyenko on Wednesday. Senators passed the bill by 163 votes in favor and one against. Accordingly, recruits will in future be prohibited from leaving the country as soon as they have received the call-up order electronically. Previously, this had to be delivered personally. So far, many Russians have escaped conscription because they remained unreachable or left the country.

Critics point out that the new law will make it
much easier to call up soldiers for deployment in Ukraine.
However, the Kremlin emphasizes that no further mobilization is imminent and that the short time span in which the law was introduced is not unusual. The law is necessary “to bring order to our system of registration and conscription,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

The day before, the members of the Russian lower house had voted unanimously in favor of the new regulation. The text will come into force as soon as it is signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Wall Street should be less engaged in the debate of whether we will see a soft or hard economic landing in the US. Investors are better advised to focus on the earnings season. The very solid numbers from LVMH, Volvo and BASF are also encouraging signals for Wall Street. After all, all of these companies are global corporations that are also active in the USA. Although Delta Air Lines missed the earnings targets for the past quarter, it raised the prospects for the current quarter noticeably! The gratifying earnings development of Novo Nordisk is in turn a positive signal for the competitor Eli Lilly. Citigroup recommends buying Merck shares before the US opening.

However, let`s take a news flyover of the different financial market sub-sectors to get a detailed overview of today`s trading session…

Forex
Dollar Muted Ahead of Key Inflation Data
Russian Ruble Extends 1-Year Low

10Y Government Bond Yields
10-Year Treasury Yield Remains Steady After FOMC
China 10-Year Bond Yield Falls after Inflation Data

Commodties
Gold Prices Rise 1%
Sugar Prices Hit 2012-Highs

Stock Markets
Wall Street Ends Lower on Recession Fears
FTSE 100 Extends Gains
European Shares Hit Fresh 1-Month High
Russian Stocks Close Slightly Higher
Asian Stocks Mostly AdvanceDollar Muted Ahead of Key Inflation Data
The dollar index held around 102.1 in subdued trade on Wednesday after losing some ground in the previous session, as investors cautiously awaited a key US inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in May. Friday’s jobs data from the US Labor Department revealed that the labor market remained tight, easing some concerns over a possible recession and raising the odds that the central bank could tighten policy further in May. A slew of Fed speakers offered little clues on how much further US interest rates would rise, with New York Fed President John Williams saying that the central bank’s policy path will depend on incoming data. Money markets are now pricing in a much higher chance that the Fed will deliver another 25 bp rate hike next month.

Russian Ruble Extends 1-Year Low
The Russian ruble depreciated to 82 per USD in April, the lowest in a year and below pre-war levels amid weak foreign currency inflows and a pickup in domestic demand for foreign exchange. Current account data for the first quarter showed Russian exports sank by 35% year-on-year, reining in previous hopes that the re-establishment of supply chains could bolster sales and demand for the ruble. Meanwhile, energy revenues were below the budget’s target despite the increase in shipments to India and China, as the Finance Ministry was forced to sell foreign currency under its intervention program for the fourth consecutive month. On top of that, deeper integration with Asian markets triggered higher demand for foreign currency by the country’s lenders, while the Moscow Exchange opened futures for rupees and dirhams. On the policy front, cooler-than-anticipated cpi delayed expectations of a rate hike from the CBR.

10-Year Treasury Yield Remains Steady After FOMC
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note recovered from early lows and hovered at the 3.45% mark on Wednesday, well above the seven-month low of 3.29% from April 6th as investors weighed on minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting and fresh CPI data. The FOMC agreed in raising the funds rate by 25bps despite previous calls for a more aggressive 50bps increase, underscoring caution against overtightening following major bank closures in the United States that sent ripples throughout the global financial sector. Still, policymakers showed a broad consensus that inflation remains too high, easing bets of three rate cuts this year. Earlier in the session, data showed that consumer prices rose by 5% in March, below market expectations of 5.2% and slowing from the 6% increase in the previous month. On the other hand, the annual core inflation edged higher for the first time in six months.China 10-Year Bond Yield Falls after Inflation Data
The yield on the Chinese 10-year government bond continued to decline to 2.83% in April, a level not seen since late November, after fresh inflation data prompted bets for more stimulus to revive the economy. Consumer inflation unexpectedly slowed to 0.7%, the lowest since September of 2021, while producer prices declined for a sixth straight month and at the fastest pace since June of 2020, signaling weak domestic demand. Other indicators, including PMIs and industrial profits, also indicated the strong recovery after the lift of the zero-covid policy had yet to materialize. On the policy front, the People’s Bank of China cut the RRR ratio for financial institutions by 25bps in March, the first such cut since December, in an attempt to stimulate the economy. At the same time, many investors considered there was room to do more. Former central bank adviser Li Yang told the Shanghai Securities News it was more important than ever to coordinate fiscal and monetary policy better.

Gold Prices Rise 1%
Gold prices rose 1% to above $2,020 an ounce on Wednesday, holding at high levels not seen since March last year, and prompted by a falling dollar after the inflation report for the US surprised on the downside. The headline inflation eased to 5% compared to forecasts of 5.2% and the monthly rate increased 0.1%, half the market expectations. At the same time, core inflation edged higher to 5.6%, but was in line with forecasts. Investors still bet the Fed will deliver another 25bps hike next month but the softer inflation eased some concerns over the need of much more tightening.

Sugar Prices Hit 2012-Highs
Raw sugar futures extended their rally to over $24.5 per pound in April, the highest since March 2012, amid rising concerns over global supplies. Sugar output in India, the second largest producer, is estimated to fall to 33.5 million tonnes in the 2022-23 crop year from 34.5 million tonnes, according to All India Sugar Trade Association. As a result, the country may not approve additional sugar exports in the year ending September, India’s food secretary recently said. Also, production is expected to decrease in Thailand and China, as the latter cut its forecast to less than 9 million tons from 9.5 million tons. On the other hand, Brazil, the leading producer, is expected to produce 40.3 million tonnes of sugar in the season that just started, the 2nd-highest amount on record. Still, elevated ethanol prices due to OPEC’s surprise oil output cut encourage sugarcane producers to allocate crops to more profitable biofuel blending.Asian Stocks Mostly Advance
Asian equity markets mostly rose on Wednesday as investors look ahead to the release of a key US inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in May. Investors also digested a raft of economic data in the Asia-Pacific region, including the South Korean unemployment rate and Japanese producer price index. Meanwhile, the IMF downgraded its global growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024, citing the impact of higher interest rates, the recent banking crisis and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Shares advanced in Australia, Japan, South Korea and mainland China, while Hong Kong stocks retreated.

Russian Stocks Close Slightly Higher
The MOEX Russia index closed 0.2% higher at 2,538 on Wednesday, trimming yesterday’s pullback as investors awaited domestic CPI data. In the prior session, current account data showed that Russian exports contracted sharply in the first quarter of 2023. Besides pointing to weaker revenues for the key raw material sectors of the Russian economy, low exports increase the sales of forex reserves by the Finance Ministry and raise extraordinary taxation measures for the finance of the war in Ukraine. The event marked an unusual occurrence where Russian equity markets showed an immediate reaction to economic data, as capital controls limit the amount of selling for foreign investors. Oil and gas producers booked gains on the corporate front with solid gains from Lukoil, Gazprom, and Novatek, offsetting small losses for banks and metallurgists

European Shares Hit Fresh 1-Month High
Stock markets across Europe rose to a fresh one-month high Wednesday afternoon after a cooler-than-expected US CPI reading for March suggested the Federal Reserve might pause its tightening cycle after a 25 bps rate hike is to be delivered in May. The pan-European STOXX 600 index added 0.6% and Germany’s DAX 40 advanced 0.8% to trade above 15,780 points, its highest level since January 2022. On the corporate side, AB Volvo jumped 8% after the truck maker posted record Q1 profit as revenue and margins rose, while UBS stocks gained about 0.4%, even after the Swiss parliament failed to approve the financial guarantees used to rescue Credit Suisse last month. Luxury group LVMH, Europe’s most valuable company, is due to report Q1 sales after the close.

FTSE 100 Extends Gains
Equities in London advanced for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 finishing above the 7,800 mark, driven by gains in thehealthcare, industrials, and utilities sectors. Investors welcomed a softer-than-expected US CPI reading, which bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve rate-hike cycle is nearing an end. Still, investors remained cautious ahead of minutes from the Federal Reserve, which could set the tone for the Bank of England’s monetary policy path. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund forecasted UK GDP would shrink by 0.3% in 2023, worse than other G7 countries. Regarding individual share price movement, DCC rallied almost 4% to lead the index higher, while big miner Glencore was also among the biggest gainers, up over 2.5%.

Wall Street Ends Lower on Recession Fears
The Dow closed 0.1% lower on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 slid by 0.4% and 0.8%, respectively. Recession concerns grew after FMOC minutes showed that Fed expects banking turmoil to cause a recession while investors were digesting fresh inflation data. Even though the recent crisis in the banking sector sparked speculation that the Fed might pause its rate-hike cycle, policymakers stressed the need to continue tightening monetary policy to tame inflation. Also, the March minutes revealed that the collapse of two regional banks would likely tip the economy into recession later this year. Meanwhile, earlier this session, data showed that the headline inflation rate fell to 5.0% last month, below economists’ forecasts of 5.2%, but the core figure rose for the first time in six months. Later this week, the first-quarter earnings kick off with banks including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup to assess the health of the U.S. economy.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

We are focusing again this week on the BITCOIN Future in the Technical Analysis 4XSetUp. I have received most of the reactions to the BTC, so I will not hold back my personal individual subjective opinion. The fight for the 30000 should break out this week. After receiving a medium term long term buy signal last week – when the 100 SMA crossed the 200 SMA to the upside.

DAX outperformed Wall Street.
What can be expected about the stockmarkets, especially the DAX, after Easter this week and how will be the US job market be proced in? These are probably maybe the most important questions to be answered while this week. And of course in line with the latest new US inflation data from March 2023, from wednesday this week.

However, we are and will remain long in the DAX Future – even if we nearlyx almost lost our nerves a few days ago, while the last few weeks. As we we`re stopped out – but came back at leasz. That`s why let’s take an honestg look back: After we had already seen a new high for the year last week, the DAX Index slowed down again to its range from February. In a direct comparison with Wall Street, however, he was stronger. The Nasdaq 100 Index also had an interim annual high in 2023. But I won’t go into that in more detail; because I’m still a bit disappointed because I had to finish our short 4xSetUp in the NDX with a loss. To avoid further losses. Nevertheless, we are now indirectly also long in the technology sector with the TESLA share and/or ALIBABA share. Because I still don’t believe today in an another tech bullmarket in the US; which is why I formulated long 4XSetUps for the DOW and/or DAX Future – which is even less technology-heavy. And should the tech market rise, then we are fully in with TESLA shares from California and/or Chinese ALIBABA shares from the NASDAQ. And if you like it even more conservative, you can buy the BMW shares and/or the LVMH shares instead of the two shares, as I formulated weeks ago.But don’t run after stocks that have already gotten off to a good start. It`s basically better to wait a few weaker days, maybe even an handful of weeks. Before you buy some cfd`s on i.e. TESLA, ALIBABA and/or BMW, like LVMH, shares, for the next few weeks, while possibly just starting a new bull market. Because the path up and/or down in the price action is rarely a daily, weekly, let alone monthly, one-way street.

Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our other still open 4XSetUps yet :

                 TradingView Symbol since entry       target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545       1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26       170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945       34420 22875
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434       35228 31148
long NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81       262.47 166.71
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299       17675 2586
long NYSE:BABA 2023/03/29 99.29       125.84 79.48
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09       63583.07 52516.76

However, todays new us inflation data were good in line; as excepted.
The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a ninth consecutive period to 5% in March of 2023, the lowest since May of 2021 from 6% in February, and below market forecasts of 5.2%. Food prices grew at a slower rate (8.5% vs 9.5% in February) and energy cost fell (-6.4% vs +5.2%), namely gasoline (-17.4%) and fuel oil (-14.2%). At the same time, prices for used cars and trucks declined once again (-11.6% vs -13.6%). On the other hand, inflation for shelter which accounts for over 30% of the total CPI basket, continued to march higher (8.2% vs 8.1%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged 0.1% higher, also below expectations of 0.2%, with higher shelter prices (0.6%) offsetting a 3.5% fall in energy cost. Food prices were unchanged. Core CPI which excludes food and energy, increased 5.6% on the year and 0.4% on the month as expected. 

There is no reason for euphoria; admitted.
But what is possibly perhaps more important; also no reason (due to US inflation) to panic further.

So that we can assume a further falling DXY as well as a cheaper US yield curve. UniCredit economist Edoardo Campanella wrote that inflation is heading in the right direction but it is too early to celebrate. That´s it! And that`s why we stay long with out 4XSetUps even ho long we are. And hope that tomorrow’s secondary US inflation data won’t disappoint either.