2023/04/11 (208) Column

Work And/Or CFD`s
Back To Reality
And That With The Help Of Every Single D2D Edition Which Helps You
To Help Yourself To Make Better Decisions (Buying/Selling Or No Trading)
And That Also With The Help Of Time As A Basic Ressources
So That You Generate Profits With The Help Of Using Until 5 Different 4XSetUps Daily
And That First And/Or Foremost Because You Have All 3 Basic Resources At Your Disposal


Reading, analyzing, evaluating
– that’s why I`m writing our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper daily, day by day.
And that for you too, yes, you, my dear, loyal reader. Because I not only claim that you make better trading decisions than all other financial market participants, who don’t read mine, ours, DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper. No! I also want you to learn something every trading day. And that day after day. So that you can say for yourself, after a week, after a month, after a quarter, let alone after a year, that your market participation in the financial market is now of course at an higher and/or broader level.

In order to be able to make better trading decisions, I have formulated the Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper into five different 4XSetUps. I have made use of the knowledge of combinatorics. Combinatorics is a sub-discipline of mathematics that deals with finite or countably infinite discrete structures and is therefore also assigned to the generic term discrete mathematics. Combinatorics is about determining the number of possible arrangements or selections of objects. And that`s why I can even much more better classify financial market informations about every price action semantically and mathematically with the help of combinatorics in order to make better trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading).

That’s all well and good, my dear loyal reader, but if you don’t have all 3 basic resources available (time, money, joy to make decisions), then reading, analyzing and/or evaluating my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper will do you no good. Like every other financial market info service, by the way (Bloomberg and/ CNBC incl.). Because sooner or later you will fail:

Because without time, you can have as much money and joy in making decisions as you want.
But if you don`t have time, or you don`t take time daily, day by day, when are you going to get involved with the financial market price action and/or news reading at all?

That`s why, the first very thing to do is, the very very first thing, and that even also before opening a trading account (preferably at one of my 9 CFD Online Brokers), is to schedule the day, is to shedule the week, so that you can spend 1 hour (much better 2h) for trading and/or investing in the financial market. And that, if you have another main job, even more so! So that you can competently concentrate on the development of the price action every day, daily, day by day, in a detailed and/or overview clear manner. So, please also visit my homepage – on which numerous templates on the subject of time (as a basic resource) are available.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Secret Reports Released!
USA warn of a “very high risk”

According to the US government, the leakage of secret US documents onto the Internet has created a “very serious” security risk. The leak could “have a tremendous impact not only on our national security, but also in the deaths of people,” said Pentagon spokesman Chris Meagher on Monday (local time). He was referring to the fact that the disclosure of the documents could expose informants to the US secret services.

The secret US government documents had gradually appeared on online platforms such as Discord, Telegram and Twitter. According to the New York Times, they were distributed through pro-Russian channels. Most of the documents relate to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.

“We’re still investigating how that happened and how big the problem is,” Meagher said. Among other things, it must be checked “how this type of information is distributed and to whom”. The Pentagon has set up an “inter-agency working group” to study the national security implications of the data leak. The US Department of Justice also launched a criminal investigation.

According to the New York Times, the documents contain information on US and NATO plans to support a Ukrainian military offensive against Russia in the spring. The documents should therefore contain details about weapon deliveries, battalion strength and other sensitive information. A document also summarizes the training plans of twelve Ukrainian combat brigades.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

The path of least resistance is up.
Market participants are skeptical and underweight in equities.
The greatest pain arises in an environment of further rising prices.
If the S&P 500 breaks through 4150, more investors will be forced into the market. The focus is on the March consumer prices due this Wednesday and on the start of the reporting season by the banks on Friday. As difficult as the medium-term environment may be for the industry, the estimates for the past quarter are likely to be too conservative. As for consumer prices, the headline rate is expected to have fallen to 5.2% yoy from 6% in February.

The core rate, on the other hand, is said to have risen from 5.5% to 5.6%. Fed funds are signaling around a 70% chance of another 25 basis point rate hike on May 3rd. However, it is also conceivable that the Fed will see the slump in bank lending as a kind of interest rate hike and will pause as early as May.

However, let`s take a news flyover of the different financial market sub-sectors to get a detailed overview of today`s trading session…

Forex
DXY Fails to Hold Momentum
Chinese Yuan Pressured by Soft Inflation Data

10Y Government Bond Yields
Japan Bond Yields Lower on Dovish Comments
China 10Y Bond Yield Hits 19-week Low

Commodties
Gold Prices Rise
Brent Hoovers Near $85

Stock MarketsWall Street End Mixed Ahead of CPI Data
FTSE 100 Extends Gains
European Shares Hover at 1-Month High
Russian Shares Close Lower on Tuesday
Sensex Back Above 60,000 Mark

DXY Fails to Hold Momentum
The dollar depreciated against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, pulling back from its weekly highs toward the 102 mark as investors turned their attention to a critical US inflation reading due on Wednesday for clues on monetary policy. Friday’s jobs data from the US Labor Department revealed a still-tight labor market, supporting bets for another Federal Reserve hike rate in May and easing some concerns of a looming recession in the world’s largest economy. Investors now await the US CPI report for signs of how close interest rates are to peaking. The dollar’s weakness was seen across the board, with some of the most pronounced selling activity against the euro and the British pound.

Chinese Yuan Pressured by Soft Inflation Data
The offshore yuan steadied around 6.88 per dollar, but is at risk of depreciating as softer-than-expected Chinese inflation data raised the possibility that the central bank could cut interest rates to support the economy. China’s consumer inflation unexpectedly slowed to 0.7% in March, the lowest since September 2021, while producer inflation eased further to a 33-month low of -2.5%. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China made a surprise cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratio for the first time this year in March to aid the economic recovery. The central bank also held its key lending rates unchanged at its March fixing, with the one-year loan prime rate at 3.65% and the five-year one at 4.3%. The yuan also faced pressure from the latest US payrolls data that pointed to a tight labor market and raised the bets for another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in May.

Japan Bond Yields Lower on Dovish Comments from New BoJ GovernorThe yield on the 10-year JGB was below 0.47%, easing from one-month highs touched on April 5th, as investors digested dovish comments from the new BoJ Governor. Kazuo Ueda signaled there would be no significant changes to monetary policy, and it’s appropriate to keep up the current yield curve control given the economic, price, and financial conditions. However, the new Governor also noted the central bank mustn’t put off normalizing monetary policy until too late. Previously, investors were pondering the possibility of changes in the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy, specifically a shift in the yield curve control program when the new Governor takes office. Now, such expectations eased, and it is not clear whether any tweaks would be seen soon. The bets have led foreigners to sell a net JPY 9.97 trillion of JGBs in the year to March 31st, the biggest annual sale since March 2006 when data was first available.

China 10Y Bond Yield Hits 19-week Low
China 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased to a 19-week low of 2.845%, ahead of the release of the country’s headline inflation and producer prices for March. Meanwhile, Han Wenxiu, deputy head of the party’s office of financial and economic affairs, recently said, “the foundation of China’s economic recovery is not yet solid enough”. On the policy front, the People’s Bank of China cut the RRR ratio for financial institutions by 25bps in March, the first such cut since December, in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Caixin Manufacturing PMI data showed that growth in China’s factory activity stalled in March. Also, industrial profits in China slumped 22.9% in the first two months of the year, as market demand hadn’t fully recovered despite the rebound in industrial output.

Gold Prices Rise
Gold prices rose to $2,013 an ounce on Tuesday after falling over 1% in the previous session, as the dollar eased ahead of key US inflation data. Traders now see the Fed as 71% likely to raise rates by another quarter point in May after data released Friday showed US employers continued to hire at a strong pace in March before starting to cut rates from around September. Meantime, the IMF said Monday in a report that interest rates in the US and other industrial countries will revert toward ultra-low levels while those in emerging countries are more mixed. Financial markets have been pessimistic about the US economy since some small US banks collapsed in March. Elsewhere, Tuesday’s data showed that consumer inflation in China, top bullion consumer, hit an 18-month low in March, amid uneven economic recoveryBrent Hoovers Near $85
Brent crude futures were trading near $85 per barrel for the 6th session on Tuesday as investors were weighing the prospect of tighter supply from OPEC+ against concerns about further interest rate hikes that could hurt energy demand. The international oil benchmark jumped nearly 7% last week after OPEC+ unexpectedly announced that it will reduce output by 1.16 million barrels per day from May until the end of 2023. After the announcement, Saudi Arabia raised its May crude prices to term customers in Asia and the US. Meanwhile, the latest US jobs data pointed to a tight labor market, raising the odds that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in May. Investors now await key US inflation data due later this week to guide the outlook for monetary policy, as well as the monthly reports from OPEC and the IEA that will provide updated forecasts for oil demand and supply.

Sensex Back Above 60,000 Mark
The BSE Sensex rose 336.9 points or 0.6% to 60,183.4 in morning trade on Tuesday, extending gains for the 7th session while holding at an over four-week high, ahead of corporate earnings for Q1. Traders also awaited both domestic and US inflation data later this week that will provide clues for central banks’ monetary policy path. Meantime, the annual inflation in India is expected to a 15-month low of 5.8% due to softer food price rises, dipping below the RBI’s upper tolerance limit for the first time this year. In China, the headline inflation eased to 0.7% in March, the least since September 2021, amid a slowdown in both food and non-food prices. Among early gainers were the banking sector, realty, and financial services. Kotak Bank surged 4.0%, followed by JWS Steel (1.7%), Bajaj Auto (1.4%), and State Bank of India (1.3%). Bank Baroda surged 3.1% after several global brokerages reiterated buy after the lender posted a 19% yoy jump in total advances for the March quarter.

Russian Shares Close Lower on Tuesday
The MOEX Russia index erased early gains and closed 0.5% down at 2,534 on Tuesday, after fresh current account data showed that Russian foreign energy sales contracted sharply in the first quarter of 2023. Exports contracted by 35% from the corresponding period of the previous year to USD 100.8 billion in the period, reining hopes that energy revenues had consolidated and underscoring the fiscal for the Federal government. Besides lower profitability for Russia’s heavyweight energy sector, the data raises concerns that Moscow may be forced to heavily tax MOEX blue chips to continue financing its war in Ukraine. Losseswere led by banks, with TCS Group dropping 3% as OFZ prices are set to drop sharply. Also, Sberbank hovered slightly below the flatline after it published results for the first quarter. The lender posted a net profit of RUB 350.2 billion in the period, in line with the levels prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

European Shares Hover at 1-Month High
European shares closed at their highest levels in one month on Tuesday, with Germany’s DAX 40 gaining about 0.4% to hit its highest level since January 2022, as investors hoped that interest rates would soon peak and come down later this year after a report by the IMF suggested the current higher rates were “likely to be temporary.”

FTSE 100 Extends Gains
Equities in London advanced for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 roughly 0.5% to close just shy of the 7,900 mark, driven by gains in the heavyweight materials sector. On the data front, the BRC-KPMG survey showed like-for-like retail sales advanced 4.9% from a year earlier in March, the same as in February and above the 12-month average of 2.1%.

Wall Street End Mixed Ahead of CPI Data
The Dow closed nearly 0.3% higher in a choppy session on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 finished muted and Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.4%. Investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy ahead of Wednesday’s CPI report and earnings season kicking off. Last week’s jobs data pointed to a still-tight labor market, reinforcing bets of another 25 bps rate hike in May but easing some concerns that the US economy is near recession. Investors now await a slew of economic data and corporate results, particularly those from US big banks, for clues about the economy’s health and the likely future path of interest rates. Among stocks, crypto-related firms rallied, including Coinbase Global (+6.1%), Riot Platforms (+17%), and Marathon Digital Holdings (+12.4%), as Bitcoin broke above $30,000. CarMax jumped 9.6% after posting better-than-expected quarterly results. Conversely, Moderna fell 3% after issuing disappointing data about its flu vaccine.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

We are focusing again this week on the BITCOIN Future in the Technical Analysis 4XSetUp. I have received most of the reactions to the BTC, so I will not hold back my personal individual subjective opinion. The fight for the 30000 should break out this week. After receiving a medium term long term buy signal last week – when the 100 SMA crossed the 200 SMA to the upside.

DAX outperformed Wall Street.
What can be expected about the stockmarkets, especially the DAX, after Easter this week and how will be the US job market be proced in? These are probably maybe the most important questions to be answered while this week. And of course in line with the latest new US inflation data from March 2023, from wednesday this week.

However, we are and will remain long in the DAX Future – even if we nearlyx almost lost our nerves a few days ago, while the last few weeks. As we we`re stopped out – but came back at leasz. That`s why let’s take an honestg look back: After we had already seen a new high for the year last week, the DAX Index slowed down again to its range from February. In a direct comparison with Wall Street, however, he was stronger. The Nasdaq 100 Index also had an interim annual high in 2023. But I won’t go into that in more detail; because I’m still a bit disappointed because I had to finish our short 4xSetUp in the NDX with a loss. To avoid further losses. Nevertheless, we are now indirectly also long in the technology sector with the TESLA share and/or ALIBABA share. Because I still don’t believe today in an another tech bullmarket in the US; which is why I formulated long 4XSetUps for the DOW and/or DAX Future – which is even less technology-heavy. And should the tech market rise, then we are fully in with TESLA shares from California and/or Chinese ALIBABA shares from the NASDAQ. And if you like it even more conservative, you can buy the BMW shares and/or the LVMH shares instead of the two shares, as I formulated weeks ago.But don’t run after stocks that have already gotten off to a good start. It`s basically better to wait a few weaker days, maybe even an handful of weeks. Before you buy some cfd`s on i.e. TESLA, ALIBABA and/or BMW, like LVMH, shares, for the next few weeks, while possibly just starting a new bull market. Because the path up and/or down in the price action is rarely a daily, weekly, let alone monthly, one-way street.

Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our other still open 4XSetUps yet :

                 TradingView Symbol since entry       target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545       1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26       170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945       34420 22875
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434       35228 31148
long NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81       262.47 166.71
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299       17675 2586
long NYSE:BABA 2023/03/29 99.29       125.84 79.48
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09       63583.07 52516.76

However, Inflation numbers also came out of China on Tuesday. And they have proven that Chinese economic policy is currently working much better for the majority of Chinese, i.e. their consumers. 

Chinese inflation is currently at 0.7%.
China’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly came in at 0.7% in March 2023, compared with February’s print and market consensus of 1.0%. This was the lowest figure since September 2021, as cost of both food and non-food eased further on the back of an uneven economic recovery after the removal of zero-COVID policy. Food inflation fell to a 10-month low (2.4% vs 2.6% in Feb), due to a steeper drop in cost of fresh vegetables and despite a faster rise in pork prices. Also, non-food prices continued to ease (0.3% vs 0.6%), linked to further declines in cost of transport (-1.9% vs 0.1%) and housing (-0.3% vs -0.1%). By contrast, inflation was unchanged for health (at 1.0%) while cost quickened for education (1.4% vs 1.2%). Core consumer prices, excluding the volatile prices of food and energy, went up 0.7% yoy, after a 0.6% gain in February. On a monthly basis, consumer prices unexpectedly dropped 0.3%, the second straight month of fall, missing estimates of a flat reading.

This can, but does not have to, give us hope that US inflation may also fall again. So that at least the fear disappears from the stock market about further and/or longer pending US interest rate hikes. And we bulls on Wall Street can thus refute the good or bad with the most decisive argument of the bears.