2023/04/06 (207) Column

Back To Reality
Work And/Or CFD`s
And That With The Help Of Every Single D2D Edition Which Helps You
To Help Yourself To Make Better Decisions (Buying/Selling Or No Trading)
And That Not Only But Rather With Technical Analysis 4XSetUps
So That You Don`t Just Generate Profits But Rather More & More Learning & Learning
With The Help Of Using Until 5 Different Angles About Financial Market Price Actions Daily


In this column, as in the whole week, I would like to formulate again as much detail and clearly why reading my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper is useful for every interested fellow human being who wants to make money with the help of securities, especially CFD derivatives. CFD`s (Contracts for Difference) are derivative products that allow you to trade financial markets such as stocks, forex, indices and commodities without having to physically buy or sell stocks, currencies and/or futures. With CFD´s you speculate on the performance of an underlying asset without actually acquiring this asset. So that you do not acquire the share directly, but the right to exchange the performance of a price based on the share.

If you pursue another professional activity to earn your living, you must first organize your everyday life (i.e. your job and your CFD trading). And that only works if you formulate a time frame and/or trading framework. A time frame to get your life organized – and/or a trading frame also to know what to do while your CFD trading. By the way, on my homepage you can get learning videos and/or templates from my books about these topics.

All information from each individual 4 SetUp – from the Central Bank 4XSetUps, Ecomonic 4XSetUps, Financial Market 4XSetUps, Scenario 4XSetUps, and/or Technical Analysis 4XSetUps – always has only one goal! Should I therefore buy/sell or not trade, because of any Technical Analysis 4XSetUp information?

“A picture says more than a thousand words,” as we say colloquially here in Germany. And that’s exactly how we could exaggerate the basic assumption of technical analysis also. Because while we always try to analyze, evaluate and act on the inside fundamental value, with the help of economic data, the technical analysis takes a completely different path. Because technical analysts assume that all price-relevant information is already reflected in the price, so that only studying the price movement is required to get an adequate picture of the fundamental situation. True to the motto: When prices rise, the fundamental, psychological and/or otherwise relevant factors must be bullish. When things go down, the price-relevant factors are also negative. Market action discounts everything and the market is always right. Phases of exaggeration up or down reflect the extreme psychological condition of the market participants in these situations, i.e. greed and fear.

That’s why I inform you daily, day by day, with Technical Analysis 4XSetUps, with new old informations, not only with but rather with technical analysis. Analyze and evaluate them, so that you, are better informed every day than all other financial market participants who do not read our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper – in order to make even better trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading).DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

“Heavy House-To-House Fighting” In Bakhmut
– Rumor About Willingness To Negotiate On Crimea?

In view of renewed Russian attacks on Bakhmut, the situation of the Ukrainian armed forces there is becoming increasingly precarious. According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian troops are in a difficult position in the battle for the city in Donbass. “For me, the most important thing is that we don’t lose our soldiers, and of course the generals on the ground will make the right decisions if the situation continues to deteriorate and there is a risk that we will lose our people because they will be surrounded,” said Selenskyj and thus vaguely alluded to a possible withdrawal for the first time. According to the Ukrainian military Thursday morning, Russian forces are stepping up their attacks with the intention of completely taking the city in eastern Ukraine.

Bakhmut, along with the southwestern towns of Avdiivka and Marjinka, is currently “the epicenter of hostilities,” the Ukrainian military said. The government in Kiev has so far emphasized that it intends to stick with Bakhmut. “Bakhmut has the important task of inflicting as many casualties on Russia as possible and, above all, preparing a counterattack,” which is expected at the end of April, military analyst Pavel Naroshny told the Ukrainian “NV Radio”.

Bakhmut is one of the last regions in Donetsk province not yet in Russian hands. The battle there is one of the fiercest in the Russian war of aggression. According to military expert Wladyslaw Selesnijow, it is vital for the Ukrainian armed forces to hold the west of the city in order to secure supplies via this route and to be able to withdraw if necessary. Otherwise they are threatened with encirclement. As long as the city was held to some extent, Russian troops would be tied up there. Above all, fighters from the Russian mercenary group Wagner are active there.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Before the long weekend, the major US stock indices performed differently. While cautious optimism reigned on the Nasdaq stock market on Thursday, investors in blue chips were more cautious. The monthly labor market report will be published on Friday, to which investors will only be able to react in the new week due to a regional regulation. The Nasdaq 100 made profits from significant initial losses. It bounced back above the 13,000 mark by closing 0.74 % higher at 13,062.60 points; and is with -0.9% in the lost this week.

The Dow struggled to salvage a gain of 0.01% across the finish line on Thursday. It ended trading at 33,485.29 points. The Wall Street index had recently developed better than the Nasdaq, as shown by a weekly plus of 0.6%. The S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 4105.02 points.

Forex
Sterling Eases from 10-Month High
Euro Eases from 2-Month High

10Y Government Bond Yields
US 10-Year Treasury Yield at 7-Month Low
Indian Bonds Rally After RBI Decision

Commodties
Gold Prices Halt 3-Day Winning Streak
Brent Crude Oil Edges Down, Heads for 3rd Weekly Gain

Stock Markets
Sensex Advances After RBI
Russian Shares Close Marginally Lower
European Stocks Rise Ahead of Easter Break
FTSE 100 Extends Gains, Posts Third Weekly Gain
Wall Street Turns Green A Head of HolidaySterling Eases from 10-Month High
The British pound was slightly down at $1.24, as investors turned to the US dollar following the release of mixed economic data from the US, while awaited Friday’s keenly eyed nonfarm payrolls report. Numbers for both US private employment and job openings came in below expectations, while weekly jobless claims declined sharply. In other economic news, Britain’s house prices rose for a third month in a row in March in a sign of “resilience” in the market. Still, sterling remained close to a ten-month high of $1.2525 touched on April 4th, as investors assessed views on the Bank of England’s policy path. Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Tuesday the central bank still could not be sure that it has raised interest rates enough to tame inflation, Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that the central bank might need to hike rates again after UK inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February and food inflation rose to a record high in March.

Euro Eases from 2-Month High
The euro eased back below $1.09, as investors remained cautious ahead of the highly-anticipated US jobs report due Friday. US data released earlier pointed to a mixed picture, with both private employment growth and job openings coming in below forecasts, while the level of jobless claims fell sharply last week. Still, the common currency remained close to a two-month high of $1.0973 touched on April 4th, amid expectations the European Central Bank will keep raising interest rates in the coming months to combat inflation. Data this week showed a strong comeback for German industry, with both factory orders and activity rising firmly in February. Last week, the latest CPI report showed the Eurozone inflation slowed in March to an over-year low of 6.9% as energy prices dropped for the first time in two years, but the core index accelerated to a fresh all-time high of 5.7%.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield at 7-Month Low
US 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased to a 29-week low of 3.2643%.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell for a seventh straight session to 3.28% on Thursday, holding at low levels not seen since September last year, as worries over the health of the US economy mount. Both initial and continuing jobless claims came higher than expected at 228K and 1823K respectively, adding to other data released during the week including the ISM PMIs, ADP and the JOLTS report which showed tighter financial conditions are already hurting the US economy. Most investors now see the Fed leaving the fed funds rate steady next month, with less than 40% expecting a 25bps rate hike. Meanwhile, the yield on the two-year note declined for a fifth day to 3.74%, its longest streak since July 2022, and also the lowest rate since September. The NFP report due tomorrow should provide further clarity on the health of the labour market.

Indian Bonds Rally After RBI Decision
The yield on the Indian 10-year government bond declined sharply to 7.2% in early April, the lowest since early December, after the Reserve Bank of India surprised markets and held its main repo rate at 6.5%. The move challenged expectations of a 25bps rate hike and marked the RBI’s first pause after 250bps of rate increases since May 2022. Softer policy coincided with the pullback in food inflation for emerging Asian nations in March, underscoring the RBI’s priority to keep growth robust despite inflationary pressure in the Indian economy. Policymakers raised the bank’s GDP forecast for the fiscal year starting in April to 6.5% from 6.4% while lowering their inflation forecast to 5.2% from 5.3%. In the meantime, Indian bonds also received support from remaining on the FTSE Russell’s watch list for government bond indices inclusion.

Gold Prices Halt 3-Day Winning Streak
Gold prices were slightly down to $2016 an ounce on Thursday, halting a three-day winning streak, but holding close to levels not seen in over a year, as investors digest a gloomy economic outlook and uncertainty regarding monetary policy. Fresh economic data for the US including the ISM PMIs, ADP and JOLTS report showed tighter financial conditions are leading to a slowdown in the US economy, with markets seeing a greater probability the Fed will leave the funds rate steady next month. Also, both the RBI and the RBA paused the rate hikes this month. On the other hand, both the ECB and the BoE are likely to tighten further while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly delivered a 50bps rate hike. Gold is highly sensitive to the rates outlook as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The bullion has gained about 2.5% so far this week.

Brent Crude Oil Edges Down, Heads for 3rd Weekly Gain
Brent crude futures fell below $85 per barrel, as more data pointed to a potential recession that could dampen energy demand. Data out of the US showed the services sector growth slowed to a 3-month low, and private companies added fewer jobs than expected in March while factory orders fell for the 2nd month, suggesting that the economy could be cooling amid higher interest rates. The UK oil benchmark remains up about 6% this week after OPEC+ unexpectedly announced on Sunday that it will reduce output by 1.16 million barrels per day from May until the end of 2023. Also, the latest EIA data showed larger-than-expected draws in US crude and fuel stockpiles. US crude oil inventories fell by 3.739 million barrels last week, more than market expectations of a 2.329 million barrel decrease. Gasoline stocks declined by 4.119 million and distillate stockpiles by 3.632 million. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has raised the prices of its flagship crude for Asian buyers for the third straight month.

Sensex Advances After RBI
The BSE Sensex closed 145 points higher at 59,830 on Thursday, its fifth consecutive session of gains after the Reserve Bank of India surprised market consensus and left its main repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. The MPC cited unprecedented geopolitical uncertainty and turmoil in the global economy as reasons for the rate pause, underscoring that a priority shift from the fight against inflation to stimulate growth. Still, the RBI raised its growth forecast for the fiscal year starting in April to 6.5% from 6.4% earlier, while lowering its inflation forecast to 5.2% from 5.3%. Real estate shares rallied following the decision, with Housing Development adding nearly 1%. Policy-sensitive auto manufacturers also benefited, with Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Maruti Suzuki adding between 2.5% and 1%. The BSE will be closed on Friday for the observance of the Good Friday holiday.

Russian Shares Close Marginally Lower
The ruble-based MOEX Russia erased early gains and closed 2 points below the flatline at 2,498 on Thursday as the pullback for banks offset the continued upswing for Russian energy producers. Sberbank and VTB both closed 0.6% lower, dented by the latter’s announcement that no dividends will be distributed in 2023 or 2024 despite the projections of record profits, as the bank needs to restore capital positions lost from Western sanctions. In the meantime, Russia said it will sell RUB 74.6 billion worth of foreign currency in April to offset the reduced capital inflow from energy revenues to the country. While the selling means that energy revenues continued to miss targets, the pace of the deficit narrowed from February and March and raised hopes that the government can solidify its fiscal position. Transneft extended last session’s rally and soared 5.7%, extending the sector’s rally since OPEC+ announced its production cut.European Stocks Rise Ahead of Easter Break
European equity markets rose on Thursday, with the benchamrk Stoxx 600 and the German DAX up 0.5% each. Banks added almost 2%, and travel and leisure stocks increased 1.4%, led by tourism group Tui following reports of strong booking demand. On the other hand, household goods companies retreated by over 1% and retailers went down 0.5%. In other corporate news, FedEx will consolidate its separate delivery companies into a single entity as it looks to cut costs and better compete with United Parcel Service and Amazon.

FTSE 100 Extends Gains, Posts Third Weekly Gain
Equities in London advanced for a second consecutive session on Thursday, with the benchmark FTSE 100 closing above the 7,700 mark, driven by the real estate and financials sectors. Still, mounting fears of a US economic recession that were triggered by recent weaker-than-expected jobs data kept investors on edge. Domestically, British house prices rose for a third month in March. 

Wall Street Turns Green A Head of Holiday
US Stocks finished a choppy trading session on Thursday, the last trading day of the week, as investors awaited fresh jobs data due tomorrow following recent signs of a slowing economy. The Dow pared it early losses to finish slightly above the flatline, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 held on gains and added 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively. Revisions to the Department of Labor’s seasonality models showed that claims for unemployment benefits have been considerably higher than initial reports in the latest months. Other data this week also suggested some softening in the labor market, driving the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to a seventh-month low and supporting tech shares, with considerable gains for Alphabet (+3.7%) and Meta (+2.1%). Despite mounting evidence of a slowdown in the economy, Cleveland Fed President Mester was among the latest officials to warn that the fund’s rate should rise above 5% this year to quell inflation.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers surprisingly announced a production cut of around 1.15 million barrels of crude oil per day at a meeting in Dubai at start of this week. The meeting of the alliance was on Monday, and no change in the offer was expected. The promotion cartel around OPEC, to which Russia also belongs, gives the expected weakening of demand as a reason. But this  decision surprised everyone – and/or me too inclusive.

Saudi Arabia is leading the oil cartel, taking on nearly half of the cuts with a supply shortage of 500,000 barrels a day. Other members such as Russia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Algeria are following suit. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on monday that Moscow will now extend its unilateral cut by 500,000 barrels beyond the summer to the end of 2023. Moscow announced these cuts in February after the introduction of western price caps (oil price caps). Broken down by member, the daily supply reduction decided on monday breaks down as follows:   Saudi Arabia: 500,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Russia: 500,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Iraq: 211,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   UAE: 144,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Kuwait: 128,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Kazakhstan: 78,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Algeria: 48,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Oman: 40,000 barrels

The impact of OPEC cuts beginning next month will add up to about 1.15 million barrels a day. Beginning in July, the market will see about 1.6 million barrels a day less crude oil than previously expected due to the extension of Russia’s existing supply curtailment.

The Cartel is sticking together to the displeasure of the USA – and is not sending our so-called West out of stagflation with this action, which is wanted by economic policy! But on the contrary! It remains to be hoped that the interest rate hikes, which were the only antidote to green economic policy, will take effect as quickly as possible – that inflation will fall as quickly as possible. The green economic policy of recent years will implode in our so-called West – which the OPEC countries also know. After Russia’s unilateral cuts in response to the West’s imposition of a price cap on Russian crude, US officials said the alliance with other OPEC members was weakening, but this latest move shows that cooperation within OPEC+ remains very strong. And confirms my assumption that the rising oil price in our so-called West is so expensive because of ideological economic green priorities. As a democrat in the West, you simply accept a higher price – under the cloak of democracy. We used to be in socialism – monetary material poverty organized by the state. That’s why we are out since monday. Because I can`t and won`t rule out price actions spiraling upwards. And that also in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

However,
we`re out of our short UKOIL 4XSetUp trading capability since Monday :

date                   entry      target      stop              TradingView                       date           closed          profit

2023/04/03       82.19       89.05       60.30          short  TVC:UKOIL            2023/02/23       85.04       –  3.47%

Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our other still open 4XSetUps yet :

                 TradingView Symbol since entry       target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545       1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26       170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945       34420 22875
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434       35228 31148
long NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81       262.47 166.71
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299       17675 2586
long NYSE:BABA 2023/03/29 99.29       125.84 79.48
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09       63583.07 52516.76

However, last but not least, let`s get a detail overview
about todays intraday price action on thursday, as crude oil eases, but still set for sharp weekly gain.
WTI crude futures edged down to nearly $80 per barrel on Thursday, as more data pointed to a potential recession that could hurt energy demand. Data out of the US showed the services sector growth slowed to a 3-month low, private companies added fewer jobs than expected and factory orders fell for the 2nd month, suggesting that the economy could be cooling. The US oil benchmark remains up about 6% this week after OPEC+ unexpectedly announced on Sunday that it will reduce output by 1.16 million barrels per day from May until the end of 2023. Also, the latest EIA data showed larger-than-expected draws in US crude and fuel stockpiles.