2023/04/05 (206) Column

Back To Reality
Work And/Or CFD`s
And That With The Help Of Every Single D2D Edition Which Helps You
To Help Yourself To Make Better Decisions (Buying/Selling Or No Trading)
And That Not Only But Rather With Scenario 4XSetUps
So That You Don`t Just Generate Profits But Rather More & More Learning & Learning
With The Help Of Using Until 5 Different Angles About Financial Market Price Actions Daily


In this column, as in the whole week, I would like to formulate again as much detail and clearly why reading my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper is useful for every interested fellow human being who wants to make money with the help of securities, especially CFD derivatives. CFD`s (Contracts for Difference) are derivative products that allow you to trade financial markets such as stocks, forex, indices and commodities without having to physically buy or sell stocks, currencies and/or futures. With CFD´s you speculate on the performance of an underlying asset without actually acquiring this asset. So that you do not acquire the share directly, but the right to exchange the performance of a price based on the share.

If you pursue another professional activity to earn your living, you must first organize your everyday life (i.e. your job and your CFD trading). And that only works if you formulate a time frame and/or trading framework. A time frame to get your life organized – and/or a trading frame also to know what to do while your CFD trading. By the way, on my homepage you can get learning videos and/or templates from my books about these topics.

All information from each individual 4 SetUp – from the Central Bank 4XSetUps, Ecomonic 4XSetUps, Financial Market 4XSetUps, Scenario 4XSetUps, and/or Technical Analysis 4XSetUps – always has only one goal! Should I therefore buy/sell or not trade, because of any Scenario 4XSetUp information?

I’m really, really proud of my Scenario 4XSetUps. Because they are a personal subjective individual invention of my humble person. I took this from scene analysis, which is a special form of text analysis about actions, i.e. heroic stories and/or dramas. In the 4XSetUps Scenario, I try to formulate what drives the financial market price action in words and numbers. Of course, it is clear to me that what I write is not always the only current topic that concerns the majority of financial market participants. But in doing so, I always try to be radically constructive, systematically conservative, to always take into account all asset classes, like as currencies, bond yields, commodities, stock markets, and/or single stocks. And try to put it in an introduction, a main part and a conclusion. So that I can give you basic information in the introduction, summarize the content in the main part, and sum up the main knowledge mathematically in the concluding part.

That’s why I inform you daily, yes you, day by day, with Scenario 4XSetUps, with new old informations, as, unfortunately, of necessity, about Russia`s war if aggression against Ukraine, with references. Analyze and evaluate them, so that you, are better informed every day than all other financial market participants who do not read our D2D – in order to make even better trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading)DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

After the sensational reading of the indictment against Trump in New York, the former US President has protested his innocence. “The only crime I’ve committed is fearlessly defending our nation against those who want to destroy it,” the Republican said on Tuesday evening (local time) in front of supporters at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. It was the 76-year-old’s first public speech after the indictment, from where he had just returned. In Manhattan he had to appear in court for the reading of the indictment, where he was confronted with the details of the historic indictment, yesterday.

The Accusation

Trump is the first ex-president in US history to face criminal charges. In the indictment, the public prosecutor’s office accuses him of falsifying business documents in 34 cases. He wanted to hide harmful information and illegal activities before and after the 2016 presidential election. At the center of the allegations is the payment of hush money to a porn actress. Trump pleaded “not guilty” in court.

Trump’s Reaction

“Our justice system has become lawless,” Trump ranted.
The Democrats tried to abuse it to win elections. “We are a nation in decline. And now these radical left-wing crazies want to influence our elections with the help of law enforcement agencies,” he said. “We can’t allow that.” Trump called the indictment ridiculous and prosecutor Alvin Bragg a failure. And announced several months ago that he wanted to run again in the election.

A trial and a potential conviction in the New York case could at best affect Trump’s plans for a renewed presidential candidacy from a political point of view. In purely legal terms, on the other hand, Trump could theoretically also compete as a convicted criminal in the election.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Investors Wary Of Economic Data

Apart from the Dow Jones Industrial, the US stock exchanges continued the losses of the previous day on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial benefited somewhat from rising consumer goods and health care stocks, which are less important in the other indices. With a rise of 0.24% to 33,482.72 points, the Dow remained in touch with the highest level in 6 weeks, at which it was last seen.

Things looked bleaker in the technology sector: The Nasdaq 100, which is dominated by this sector and which had reached its highest level since August the previous day, slipped back below the 13,000 point mark. He crossed the finish line 1.01% lower at 12,967.20 points. The market-wide S&P 500 fell by 0.25% to 4090.38 points.

Forex
Dollar Edges Lower after ADP
Chinese Yuan Steadies as Dollar Ebbs

10Y Government Bond Yields
German 10-Year Bond Yield Eases
Japan 10-Year Bond Yield Approaches 0.5%

Commodties
Orange Juice Reaches All-time High of 286.2 USd/Lbs
Gold Steadies Near 1-Year High

Stock Markets
Indian Stocks Extend Rally
MOEX Closes at 1-Year High
European Stocks Fall on Wednesday
FTSE 100 Closes Higher
US Stocks End Mixed on WednesdayDollar Edges Lower after ADP Narrows Fed’s Room for Tightening
The dollar index fell to 101.5 on Wednesday, a level not seen in two months, after the ADP report showed private companies in the US added less jobs than expected in March, in another sign the economy is starting to slow amid high borrowing costs. Early in the week, US job openings, a measure of labor demand, fell below 10 million for the first time since 2021, while factory orders declined further and the ISM Manufacturing PMI showed factory activity shrank for a fifth month. Money markets are now pricing a pause in interest rate hikes in May, with rate cuts expected soon after that. The most pronounced selling activity was against the British pound. The next big catalyst for the dollar should be the NFP report due Friday.

Chinese Yuan Steadies as Dollar Ebbs
The offshore yuan steadied around 6.87 per dollar, finding support after the dollar weakened on softening US data which fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve may not need to tighten further in the coming months to prevent a recession. Meanwhile, the yuan came under pressure recently after a private survey showed that China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly stalled in March, highlighting the country’s unstable economic recovery. On the monetary policy front, the People’s Bank of China recently announced a surprise cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratio for the first time this year to aid the economic recovery. The central bank also held its key lending rates steady at its March fixing, with the one-year loan prime rate at 3.65% and that of the five-year at 4.3%.

German 10-Year Bond Yield Eases
The yield on the German 10-year Bund fell towards 2.2%, as investors believe data pointing to a cooling US labor market could allow the Federal Reserve to adopt a less hawkish monetary policy. Private employment in the US increased by 145,000 jobs last month, below forecasts of 200,000, while the level of job openings dropped below the 10 million mark for the first time since May 2021. Still, Fed policymaker Mester said the central bank likely had more interest rate rises ahead amid signs the recent banking sector troubles have been contained. On the other hand, the European Central Bank is seen raising interest rates further, even as data showed the bloc’s producer prices fell more than expected in February, while consumers cut their inflation expectations. ECB official Makhlouf on Tuesday argued that the Eurozone would need a stronger monetary policy response if it ended up in a wage-price spiral.

Japan 10-Year Bond Yield Approaches 0.5%The yield on the 10-year JGB rose to 0.47% in early April, rebounding from a three-month low of 0.25% touched in late March, and approaching the top end of the BoJ’s target of 0.5%, tracking a rise in global bond yields. An unexpected cut in oil production by OPEC+ raised concerns over further inflationary pressures and the need of prolonged tightening to sustain them, although weaker-than-expected economic data for the US offset some of those fears. At the same time, the BoJ offered to purchase JPY 250 billion of bonds with 10-25 years left to maturity, up from JPY 200 billion in its previous operation, surprising markets that were expecting a stable offer. Meanwhile, Kazuo Ueda will succeed Haruhiko Kuroda as the new BoJ governor on April 9th, with investors pondering the possibility of changes in the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy, specifically a shift in the yield curve control program.

Orange Juice Reaches All-time High of 286.2 USd/Lbs
Orange juice prices skyrocketed above 286.2 USd/Lbs in April, as extreme weather conditions and an incurable citrus disease hit the orange crop in Florida sending orange juice costs to all-time high. According to the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC), citrus greening disease spread by an insect has affected the orange corp. Earlier, the Department of Agriculture reduced its Florida orange production outlook for 2022-2023 season.

Gold Steadies Near 1-Year High
Gold steadied around $2,020 an ounce on Wednesday, hovering near its highest levels in a year as weak US data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve may not need to tighten further in the coming months to prevent a recession. Fresh data out of the US showed the services sector growth slowed to a 3-month low, and that private companies added fewer jobs than expected in March while factory orders fell for the 2nd month, suggesting that the economy could be cooling amid higher interest rates. As a result, markets see a greater probability the Fed will leave the funds rate steady next month. Also, In Australia, the RBA paused the rate hikes this month. On the other hand, both the ECB and the BoE are likely to tighten further while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly delivered a 50bps rate hike. Gold is highly sensitive to the rates outlook as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Indian Stocks Extend Rally
The BSE Sensex closed 620 points higher at 59,740 on Wednesday, booking gains for the fourth session with broad support from all main sectors as investors returned from Tuesday’s holiday. Fresh PMI data showed that the Indian private sector continued to expand at a strong pace in March, extending the growth momentum for the Indian economy. Banking shares booked sharp advances, led by a 2.7% increase for HDFC Bank. Tech companies also moved upwards, led by 1% gains for Infosys and HCL Technologies. Meanwhile, Larsen & Toubro shares soared by over 3.5% after securing contracts in the Middle East for its hydrocarbon business. On the policy front, the RBI is expected to raise its key interest rate by 25bps to 6.75% tomorrow, extending the fight against unsustainable price growth after policymakers flagged risks of sticky inflation.

MOEX Closes at 1-Year High
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index extended early gains and closed 0.8% higher at 2,500 on Wednesday, the highest in one year, with continued support from energy shares amid improved signs for the outlook of the Russian economy. The Ministry of Finance said it will sell RUB 74.6 billion worth of foreign currency in April to offset the reduced inflow of foreign exchange from energy revenues to the country. While the selling means that oil and gas revenues continued to miss the budget’s target, the pace of the deficit narrowed from February and March, raising hopes that the federal government can solidify its fiscal position and reduce extraordinary taxation measures for MOEX blue-chips. Transneft rallied 3% while Lukoil and Surgut both added 1%, extending the sector’s rally since OPEC+ announced its production cut. On the other hand, VTB sank more than 6% after releasing 2022 results and underwhelming dividend amounts.

European Stocks Fall on Wednesday
European shares closed slightly lower Wednesday, with Germany’s DAX 40 losing 0.7% to end at 15,500, as investors digested a batch of economic reports and their potential impact on the economic and monetary policy outlook. Final PMI data showed the Eurozone service sector expanded less than previously thought in March, while German factory orders rose by 4.8% in February, the most since June 2021. In the US, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in both private employment growth and service sector activity expansion added to market speculation that the Federal Reserve might pause its hiking of interest rates in May. Among individual stocks, catering and food services group Sodexo unveiled plans to spin off and list its Benefits & Rewards Services business in 2024, while chocolate maker Barry Callebaut reported a lower half-year sales volumes. Meanwhile, shares of Deutsche Telekom jumped to an over two-decade high after announcing it holds a majority in T-Mobile US.FTSE 100 Closes Higher
London shares recovered from a muted open to end Wednesday session higher, with the benchmark FTSE 100 consolidating around 7,650, driven by gains in the healthcare sector. Investors digested a slew of economic data, including an ISM survey showing that the US services sector declined to the lowest level in three months. Meanwhile, the New Zealand central bank’s unexpected 50-basis-point rate hike rattled investors at a time when recent signs of resilience in the UK economy have bolstered expectations of further interest rate rises domestically. AstraZeneca jumped almost 3% to lead the FTSE 100 higher after announcing that a combination of cancer drugs Imfinzi and Lynparza improved progression-free survival in patients with advanced ovarian cancer. On the other hand, RS Group was down 6%.

US Stocks End Mixed on Wednesday
The blue-chip Dow closed 0.2% higher on Wednesday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 0.2% and 1%, respectively, as investors mulled the impact of a cooling labor market on economic growth and inflation. The US private sector added far fewer jobs than expected in March, while job vacancies sank in February to the lowest since May 2021. Also, the ISM survey showed that the US services sector slowed more than expected last month as demand eased. Despite the data, Fed Cleveland President Mester said the fund’s rate should rise above 5% this year and stay there for some time to quell inflation. On the corporate side, Nvidia declined 2.1% after Japan decided to join a US alliance in restricting exports of chipmaking gear to China.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers surprisingly announced a production cut of around 1.15 million barrels of crude oil per day at a meeting in Dubai at start of this week. The meeting of the alliance was on Monday, and no change in the offer was expected. The promotion cartel around OPEC, to which Russia also belongs, gives the expected weakening of demand as a reason. But this  decision surprised everyone – and/or me too inclusive.

Saudi Arabia is leading the oil cartel, taking on nearly half of the cuts with a supply shortage of 500,000 barrels a day. Other members such as Russia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Algeria are following suit. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on monday that Moscow will now extend its unilateral cut by 500,000 barrels beyond the summer to the end of 2023. Moscow announced these cuts in February after the introduction of western price caps (oil price caps). Broken down by member, the daily supply reduction decided on monday breaks down as follows:   Saudi Arabia: 500,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Russia: 500,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Iraq: 211,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   UAE: 144,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Kuwait: 128,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Kazakhstan: 78,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Algeria: 48,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Oman: 40,000 barrels

The impact of OPEC cuts beginning next month will add up to about 1.15 million barrels a day. Beginning in July, the market will see about 1.6 million barrels a day less crude oil than previously expected due to the extension of Russia’s existing supply curtailment.

The Cartel is sticking together to the displeasure of the USA – and is not sending our so-called West out of stagflation with this action, which is wanted by economic policy! But on the contrary! It remains to be hoped that the interest rate hikes, which were the only antidote to green economic policy, will take effect as quickly as possible – that inflation will fall as quickly as possible. The green economic policy of recent years will implode in our so-called West – which the OPEC countries also know. After Russia’s unilateral cuts in response to the West’s imposition of a price cap on Russian crude, US officials said the alliance with other OPEC members was weakening, but this latest move shows that cooperation within OPEC+ remains very strong. And confirms my assumption that the rising oil price in our so-called West is so expensive because of ideological economic green priorities. As a democrat in the West, you simply accept a higher price – under the cloak of democracy. We used to be in socialism – monetary material poverty organized by the state. That’s why we are out since monday. Because I can`t and won`t rule out price actions spiraling upwards. And that also in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

However,
we`re out of our short UKOIL 4XSetUp trading capability since Monday :

date                   entry      target      stop              TradingView                       date           closed          profit

2023/04/03       82.19       89.05       60.30          short  TVC:UKOIL            2023/02/23       85.04       –  3.47%

Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our other still open 4XSetUps yet :

                 TradingView Symbol since entry       target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545       1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26       170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945       34420 22875
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434       35228 31148
long NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81       262.47 166.71
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299       17675 2586
long NYSE:BABA 2023/03/29 99.29       125.84 79.48
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09       63583.07 52516.76

However, last but not least, let`s get a detail overview
about todays intraday price action on wednesday, as oil steadies as traders assess outlook.
WTI crude futures steadied around $81 per barrel on Wednesday as investors weighed a surprise production cut from OPEC+ against US data that pointed to further signs of a slowing economy. The US oil benchmark remains up about 7% this week after OPEC+ unexpectedly announced on Sunday that it will reduce output by 1.16 million barrels per day, in what de facto leader Saudi Arabia cited as a “precautionary measure” aimed at stabilizing the oil market. Investors also continued to be optimistic about the outlook for Chinese demand, as the country’s economic recovery is expected to help cushion the impact of slower global growth.