2023/04/04 (205) Column

Back To Reality
Work And/Or CFD`s
And That With The Help Of Every Single D2D Edition Which Helps You
To Help Yourself To Make Better Decisions (Buying/Selling Or No Trading)
And That Not Only But Rather With Financial Market 4XSetUps
So That You Don`t Just Generate Profits But Rather More & More Learning & Learning
With The Help Of Using Until 5 Different Angles About Financial Market Price Actions Daily


In this column, as in the whole week, I would like to formulate again as much detail and clearly why reading my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper is useful for every interested fellow human being who wants to make money with the help of securities, especially CFD derivatives. CFD`s (Contracts for Difference) are derivative products that allow you to trade financial markets such as stocks, forex, indices and commodities without having to physically buy or sell stocks, currencies and/or futures. With CFD´s you speculate on the performance of an underlying asset without actually acquiring this asset. So that you do not acquire the share directly, but the right to exchange the performance of a price based on the share.

If you pursue another professional activity to earn your living, you must first organize your everyday life (i.e. your job and your CFD trading). And that only works if you formulate a time frame and/or trading framework. A time frame to get your life organized – and/or a trading frame also to know what to do while your CFD trading. By the way, on my homepage you can get learning videos and/or templates from my books about these topics.

All information from each individual 4 SetUp – from the Central Bank 4XSetUps, Ecomonic 4XSetUps, Financial Market 4XSetUps, Scenario 4XSetUps, and/or Technical Analysis 4XSetUps – always has only one goal! Should I therefore buy/sell or not trade, because of any Financial Markets 4XSetUp information?

By using so-called quantitative parameters – such as like the standard deviation, the beta factor, and/or the correlation coefficient – you can find out the the relationship of price actions with each other. And thus, based on historical facts from the past, if you mathematically rhyme it together, to make better trading decisions today, for tomorrow. Of course, the price action of the past is no guarantee for future developments. However, this allows future probabilities to be better estimated. And that’s what the Financial Market 4XSetUps is all about. And that not only in the relationship of the price action to each other, with the help of the quantitative parameters. But rather also in the depth of each individual price action development. And that with the help of so-called technical indicators, which only refer to a single price action history; such as so-called trend-following indicators, momentum oscillators, trend indicators, chart formations, as well as chart analyses.

That’s why I inform you daily, day by day, with Financial Markets 4XSetUps, with new old informations from central banks, with references. Analyze and evaluate them too, so that you, yes you, are better informed every day than all other financial market participants who do not read our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper – in order to make even better trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading).DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

A historic day in New York: With a large police presence and demonstrations, former US President Donald Trump arrived in court to read out the indictment against him, on this Tuesday. The Republican, accompanied by security guards, ran into the Manhattan courthouse and was temporarily taken into custody. Upon his arrival, he gave onlookers a quick wave. It`s the 1st time in history of the us that an ex-president has to answer in a criminal case. The arrival at the court was accompanied by heavy security measures and deonstrations by his supporters and opponents alike. Because of feared riots, NY had increased security significantly. Hundreds of journalists stationed themselves around the court.

An Indictment Like Never Before

The district attorney’s office in Manhattan announced the indictment against Trump on Thursday. A suspect must appear in person for the reading of the indictment. Around 30 charges are to be brought against Trump – none are officially known so far. The case is complicated. Shortly before his election as president in 2016, Trump paid hush money to porn actress Stormy Daniels. She had claimed she had sex with him. Trump denies an affair, but not that money flowed. The payment itself is not illegal. According to the media, however, Trump is accused of having incorrectly billed them and falsifying business documents. He may have violated campaign finance laws. According to US media, Trump has been charged with 34 crimes, each of which carries a prison sentence.

Unprecedented Scenes

He was to be taken into short-term custody so that his fingerprints and police photos could be taken. Whether these photos would actually be taken remained open at first. This should all happen behind closed doors.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Dax Defies Oil Price Action And/Or US Data With New 2023 High

The German stock market remained stable on Tuesday. Around noon, the Dax climbed to almost 15,737 points, its highest level for around 14 months and thus also a high for the year. In the afternoon, however, the leading index crumbled again in the course of falling prices on Wall Street. Ultimately, the Dax was up 0.14% to 15,603.47 points, which means a gain of around 12% for 2023 so far.

The Dow Jones Industrial, which was particularly strong the day before, was now lagging behind: After reaching its highest level for a good six weeks on Monday, it recently lost 0.70% to 33,364.56 points. At the same time, the S&P 500 slipped 0.59% to 4100.25 points. Abd the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.32% to 13,106.28 points.

Forex
Euro Hits 2-Month High
Turkish Lira Extends Record Low

10Y Government Bond Yields
Swiss 10-Year Bond Yield Hovers at 3-Week High
US Bond Yields Edge Higher

Commodties
Silver Hits 12-Month High
Gold at Over 1-Year High

Stock Markets
Asian Stocks Mostly Advance
Russian Shares Advance on Tuesday
European Stocks Cautiously Lower
FTSE 100 Snaps Six-Day Rally
Wall Street Falls After Job DataEuro Hits 2-Month High
The euro bounced back above $1.09 at the start of April, hovering around its strongest level in two months and following a 1.6% gain last month, amid expectations the European Central Bank will keep raising interest rates in the coming months to combat inflation. ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said another 50bp hike was “still on the cards” if the recent banking turmoil did not worsen. Last month, ECB President Lagarde said that the central bank was determined to get the inflation back on target despite the risks of a recession. The latest CPI report showed the Eurozone inflation slowed in March to an over-year low of 6.9% as energy prices dropped for the first time in two years, but the core index accelerated to a fresh all-time high of 5.7%. Meanwhile, a survey by the European Central Bank showed on Tuesday that consumers cut their inflation expectations in February and also took a more optimistic view on growth and unemployment.

Turkish Lira Extends Record Low
The Turkish lira extended losses to a record-low of 19.2 per USD in early April, weighed down by loose monetary policy and current account imbalances ahead of the country’s election in May. The CBRT slashed its key interest rate by 50bps in February to ease financial conditions following Turkey’s devastating earthquake. The move added to 10.5 percentage points in rate cuts since September 2021, which triggered a currency crisis. Inflation in Turkey surged to 86% in October before slowing to 51% in March, as the lira plunged by 57% since the start of the bank’s cutting cycle and compounded higher prices for the country’s vital imports. Lately, pressure on the local currency was also attributed to political uncertainty. A change in government could end the central banks’ liraiziation policies before the eventual tightening of financial conditions and new economic framework kick in. Should President Erdogan remain in office, consensus points to the “disorderly depreciation” of the lira.

Swiss 10-Year Bond Yield Hovers at 3-Week High
The yield on the Swiss 10-year government bond hovered around 1.2%, the highest in three weeks, as investors tried to gauge the next SNB monetary policy steps after a weaker-than-expected inflation reading in March. The latest data showed the annual inflation rate slowed to 2.9%, the lowest in three months, down from 3.4% in February and below market expectations of 3.2%. Also, the core rate eased to 2.2%, a much smaller figure than in the rest of the Euro Area. In March, the Swiss National Bank raised its policy rate by 50 bps to 1.5%, following a similar move in December and bringing borrowing costs the highest since November 2008. In June, money markets see another interest rate hike of either 25 bps or 50 bps.

US Bond Yields Edge Higher
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, edged higher to 3.5% on Monday, after a surprise cut in oil production by OPEC+ raised concerns of further inflationary pressures and the need of more monetary tightening. Money markets now see a 65% probability of a 25bps rate hike in the fed funds rate next month, compared to 55% earlier. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year note rose to 4.07%. The 10-year yield ended the first quarter of 2023 down roughly 30bps, as instability in the US financial sector drove investors to pile onto the safety of government debt. Hampered confidence in the sector and the banks’ vulnerability to higher borrowing costs forced the Fed to hold its terminal rate projections despite upward revisions to inflation and downward revisions to unemployment forecasts.

Silver Hits 12-Month High
Silver futures were trading at almost $25 per ounce, the highest since April of 2022 as bets increased that the Federal Reserve may be forced to slow down or altogether stop the tightening cycle. Fresh US job openings data pointed to a slowdown in the labor market while an ISM survey showed manufacturing activity contracted for the fifth month in a sign that tighter credit conditions are already hurting the economy. As a result, the dollar at which silver prices are quoted has weakened sharply to the lowest level in 2 months. Also, the demand for industrial metals is set to rebound in China as the country recently entered the post-covid recovery stage.

Gold at Over 1-Year High
Gold prices surged almost 2% to $2016 an ounce on Tuesday, the highest level since March of 2022, after fresh data for US job openings pointed to a slowdown in the labour market, suggesting the Fed may not need to raise rates much further and could even pause the tightening cycle. On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI already pointed to a fifth straight month of contraction in factory activity, in a sign that tighter credit conditions are already hurting the economy. Investors now see a 56.9% probability the Fed will leave the fed funds rate steady next month. At the same time, the recent banking crises have led to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets.

Asian Stocks Mostly Advance
Asian equity markets mostly rose on Tuesday as investors reacted to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision, where its paused its rate-hiking campaign as it wanted additional time to assess the impact of past increases on the economic outlook. Investors also continued to assess the implications of a surprise production cut from OPEC+ on the global economy, amid concerns that the US Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates further to keep inflation under control. Meanwhile, South Korea’s inflation rate slowed to a one-year low in March, supporting the Bank of Korea’s move to stand pat at its February policy meeting. Shares in Australia, Japan, South Korea and mainland China advanced, while Hong Kong stocks declined.

Russian Shares Advance on Tuesday
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index eased from intra-day highs but closed 0.3% higher at 2,480 on Tuesday, the highest in six months, as sharp gains for oil producers outweighed losses for banks and metallurgists. OPEC+ nations surprisingly announced an oil output cut over the weekend, lifting crude oil prices and energy producers’ stocks. Moscow said it would cut production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of the year, doubling another cut announced in February. Among the sector’s heavyweights, Transneft and Surgut added 5%. Higher oil prices also supported broader sentiment as larger energy revenues for the Russian government ease the burden from extraordinary tax programs for other sectors, mandated by Moscow to support its wide budget deficit. Gazprom, a large bearer of extraordinary taxation, jumped 0.5% in the session. On the other hand, banks eased from their rally to book slight losses, while lower steel prices in China pressured metallurgists.

European Stocks Cautiously Lower
The pan-European STOXX 600, London’s FTSE 100, France’s CAC, and Italy’s FTSE MIB closed marginally lower while the German DAX held near a 14-month high as investors digested recent economic data trying to gauge the next monetary policy steps by major central banks. Eurozone producer price inflation slowed more than expected in February, and a survey by the ECB showed that consumers cut their inflation expectations in February. Also, the US job openings fell to the lowest in almost two years. On the corporate front, oil and gas stocks fell after rallying 4% on Monday while the insurance and financial services sectors rose. Also, Bayer was up after a US judge dismissed a Merck lawsuit seeking to hold the German group responsible for more talc-related liabilities from its purchase of Merck’s consumer care business in 2014.

FTSE 100 Snaps Six-Day Rally
Equities in London snapped six consecutive days of gains on Tuesday, with the blue-chip FTSE 100 pulling back from its recent highs to end around 7,640 points, dragged by energy, technology, and materials stocks. Recent signs of resilience in the UK economy have bolstered investor expectations of further interest rate rises. Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill echoed this hawkish view by saying that persistently high inflation could force the bank to hike further. Heavyweight Rio Tinto declined roughly 2% to be among the top losers in the index.

Wall Street Falls After Job Data
The Dow and the S&P 500 snapped a four-day winning streak and closed almost 0.6% lower each on Tuesday, while Nasdaq 100 lost 0.5%. Market sentiment was dented by renewed recession fears after a new batch of economic data. US job openings, a measure of labor demand, fell below 10 million for the first time since 2021 in February, while factory orders declined further, suggesting that the economy could be cooling amid higher interest rates. Still, several Fed policymakers last week warned that more monetary tightening would be needed to tame inflation, even after the recent turmoil in the banking sector. Among corporates, JPMorgan Chase (-1.3%) warned its shareholders that the U.S. banking crisis is ongoing and that its impact will be felt for years, dragged banks shares including Bank of America (-2.1%), Wells Fargo (-2.4%) and Citigroup (-1.3%). AMC Entertainment plunged 23.5% after a lawsuit settlement brought the company a step closer to its plan to convert APE to common stock.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers surprisingly announced a production cut of around 1.15 million barrels of crude oil per day at a meeting in Dubai at start of this week. The meeting of the alliance was on Monday, and no change in the offer was expected. The promotion cartel around OPEC, to which Russia also belongs, gives the expected weakening of demand as a reason. But this  decision surprised everyone – and/or me too inclusive.

Saudi Arabia is leading the oil cartel, taking on nearly half of the cuts with a supply shortage of 500,000 barrels a day. Other members such as Russia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Algeria are following suit. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on monday that Moscow will now extend its unilateral cut by 500,000 barrels beyond the summer to the end of 2023. Moscow announced these cuts in February after the introduction of western price caps (oil price caps). Broken down by member, the daily supply reduction decided on monday breaks down as follows:   Saudi Arabia: 500,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Russia: 500,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Iraq: 211,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   UAE: 144,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Kuwait: 128,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Kazakhstan: 78,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Algeria: 48,000 barrels
breaks down as follows:   Oman: 40,000 barrels

The impact of OPEC cuts beginning next month will add up to about 1.15 million barrels a day. Beginning in July, the market will see about 1.6 million barrels a day less crude oil than previously expected due to the extension of Russia’s existing supply curtailment.

The Cartel is sticking together to the displeasure of the USA – and is not sending our so-called West out of stagflation with this action, which is wanted by economic policy! But on the contrary! It remains to be hoped that the interest rate hikes, which were the only antidote to green economic policy, will take effect as quickly as possible – that inflation will fall as quickly as possible. The green economic policy of recent years will implode in our so-called West – which the OPEC countries also know. After Russia’s unilateral cuts in response to the West’s imposition of a price cap on Russian crude, US officials said the alliance with other OPEC members was weakening, but this latest move shows that cooperation within OPEC+ remains very strong. And confirms my assumption that the rising oil price in our so-called West is so expensive because of ideological economic green priorities. As a democrat in the West, you simply accept a higher price – under the cloak of democracy. We used to be in socialism – monetary material poverty organized by the state. That’s why we are out since monday. Because I can`t and won`t rule out price actions spiraling upwards. And that also in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

However,
we`re out of our short UKOIL 4XSetUp trading capability since Monday :

date                   entry      target      stop              TradingView                       date           closed          profit

2023/04/03       82.19       89.05       60.30          short  TVC:UKOIL            2023/02/23       85.04       –  3.47%

Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our other still open 4XSetUps yet :

                 TradingView Symbol since entry       target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545       1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26       170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945       34420 22875
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434       35228 31148
long NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81       262.47 166.71
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299       17675 2586
long NYSE:BABA 2023/03/29 99.29       125.84 79.48
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09       63583.07 52516.76

However, last but not least, let`s get a detail overview
about todays intraday price action on tuesday, as brent holds advance after +OPEC
Brent crude futures held above $85 per barrel on Tuesday after surging more than 6% in the previous session, underpinned by a surprise production cut of more than 1 million barrels per day from OPEC+. The move accelerated short-covering in the market as traders had been reducing short positions in oil even before the surprise announcement. Investors also remained optimistic about the outlook for Chinese demand, as the country’s economic recovery is expected to help cushion the impact of slower global growth. Meanwhile, the market gauged the effect of the latest output cuts on Federal Reserve monetary policy amid concerns over possible rate hikes.