2023/04/03 (204) Column

Back To Reality
Work And/Or CFD`s
And That With The Help Of Every Single D2D Edition Which Helps You
To Help Yourself To Make Better Decisions (Buying/Selling Or No Trading)
And That Not Only But Rather With Economic 4XSetUps
So That You Don`t Just Generate Profits But Rather More & More Learning & Learning
With The Help Of Using Until 5 Different Angles About Financial Market Price Actions Daily


In this column, as in the whole week, I would like to formulate again as much detail and clearly why reading my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper is useful for every interested fellow human being who wants to make money with the help of securities, especially CFD derivatives. CFD`s (Contracts for Difference) are derivative products that allow you to trade financial markets such as stocks, forex, indices and commodities without having to physically buy or sell stocks, currencies and/or futures. With CFD´s you speculate on the performance of an underlying asset without actually acquiring this asset. So that you do not acquire the share directly, but the right to exchange the performance of a price based on the share.

If you pursue another professional activity to earn your living, you must first organize your everyday life (i.e. your job and your CFD trading). And that only works if you formulate a time frame and/or trading framework. A time frame to get your life organized – and/or a trading frame also to know what to do while your CFD trading. By the way, on my homepage you can get learning videos and/or templates from my books about these topics.

All information from each individual 4 SetUp – from the Central Bank 4XSetUps, Ecomonic 4XSetUps, Financial Market 4XSetUps, Scenario 4XSetUps, and/or Technical Analysis 4XSetUps – always has only one goal! Should I therefore buy/sell or not trade, because of any Economic 4XSetUp information?

Economic data are released daily by the domestic national statistical offices of each country, each currency. And also have a decisive influence on the price action. An ambivalent impact on currency price action, the yield curve, the commodities, the stock market, and/or even certain stocks. That´s why we should at least always take note of daily economic data from the last months and/or quarters. So that we can get a competent, detailed and clear picture of every economic area; if we want to have. In order to be able to make even better trading decisions based on this. The GDP Annual Growth Rate (yoy, quarterly), the Inflation (yoy, monthly), the Current Account (in native currency, quaterly) and/or the Unemployment Rate (in %, monthly), are the most influence economic data. Who drives the price action ahead, while, and/or after the publication.

That’s why I inform you daily, day by day, with Economic 4XSetUps, with new old informations from the different native national statistic offices, with references. Analyze and evaluate them too, so that you, yes you, are better informed every day than all other financial market participants who do not read our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper – in order to make even better trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading).DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

German Vice Chancellor Habeck
With Business Delegation For Business In Kiev

Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck has arrived in Ukraine for political talks. The Green politician arrived in the capital of Zkraine, even in Kiev on Monday morning with a small delegation of German business representatives. „The topics of the trip are the reconstruction of Ukraine, which was attacked by Russia, and cooperation in the energy sector. The purpose of the trip is to give Ukraine a clear signal“, Habeck said on his arrival at the Kiev train station. A sign “that we believe that it will be victorious, that it will be rebuilt, that there is an interest in Europe not only to provide support in times of need, but that Ukraine will also be an economically strong partner in the future“.

Habeck is traveling to the country for the first time since Russian troops invaded Ukraine on February 24 last year 2022 – and for the first time ever as federal minister. He only wanted to come if he could bring something with him, said the minister on the outward journey in a special train. What is that? “A business delegation that gives Ukraine hope that there will be reconstruction after the war.” 

“Specific investment decisions” have either already been made or should be made, explained Habeck. Now the German economy says: “We can again” – and I wanted to bring this signal to my Ukrainian friends.” His current trip was actually planned for last fall, but then had to be postponed because of the Russian winter offensive in Ukraine, said Habeck. “Now is the moment.” The President of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), Siegfried Russwurm, who is accompanying Habeck as one of several business representatives, described the trip as a “signal to the Ukrainians that the German economy is also growing suits them“. In addition, many German companies are still in Ukraine and it is important to understand their problems and to focus on the reconstruction of the country.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Rising Oil Prices Curb Buying Desire

A sharp rise in oil prices slowed the start of April on European stock exchanges on Monday. Although the EuroStoxx 50 climbed to its highest level since the beginning of 2022 at 4329 points in the morning, the initial buying mood subsided. The leading European index fell 0.09% from trading at 4311.05 points.

The Dow Jones continued its recent rally, rising 0.98% to 33,601.15. At just under 33,633 points, it reached its highest level in a good six weeks. The S&P 500 was up 0.37% in its wake to close at 4124.51 points. After a good run recently, however, there were price losses for the Nasdaq 100, which fell by 0.25% to 13,148.35 points as a result of skeptical statements by the US bank Morgan Stanley techs.

Forex
Euro Falls Back to $1.08
Chinese Yuan Drops on Weak Manufacturing Data

10Y Government Bond Yields
US Bond Yields Edge Higher
UK 10-Year Bond Yield Steady Around 3-Week High

Commodties
Gold Rebounds Above $1,980
Sugar Rises to Over 6-Year High

Stock Markets
Sensex Eases from Over 2-Week Peaks
Russian Stocks Lifted by OPEC+
European Stocks Cautiously Lower
UK Stocks Rise for 6th Session
US Stocks End Mixed After OPEC+ SurpriseEuro Falls Back to $1.08
The euro weakened to $1.08 at the start of April, after touching a seven-week high of $1.0929 on March 22nd and following gains of 1.6% against the USD last month. Investors turned to the dollar on renewed fears over US inflation after a surprise announcement by OPEC+ to cut production further, which could lead to a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting. Elsewhere, traders believe the European Central Bank will keep raising interest rates in the coming months to combat inflation. The latest CPI report showed the Eurozone inflation slowed in March to an over year low of 6.9% as energy prices dropped for the first time in two years, but the core index accelerated to a fresh all-time high of 5.7%. Last month, ECB President Lagarde said that the central bank was determined to get the inflation back on target and it won’t involve “trade-offs” despite the recent banking turmoil and risks of recession.

Chinese Yuan Drops on Weak Manufacturing Data
The offshore yuan depreciated toward 6.9 per dollar, weighed down by a private survey showing China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly stalled in March, highlighting the country’s unstable economic recovery. The currency also weakened after surprise production cuts from OPEC+ stoked fears that the US Federal Reserve may need to keep raising interest rates to keep inflation under control. On the monetary policy front, the People’s Bank of China recently announced a surprise cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratio for the first time this year to aid the economic recovery. The central bank also held its key lending rates steady at its March fixing, with the one-year loan prime rate at 3.65% and that of the five-year at 4.3%.

US Bond Yields Edge Higher
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, edged higher to 3.5% on Monday, after a surprise cut in oil production by OPEC+ raised concerns of further inflationary pressures and the need of more monetary tightening. Money markets now see a 65% probability of a 25bps rate hike in the fed funds rate next month, compared to 55% earlier. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year note rose to 4.07%. The 10-year yield ended the first quarter of 2023 down roughly 30bps, as instability in the US financial sector drove investors to pile onto the safety of government debt. Hampered confidence in the sector and the banks’ vulnerability to higher borrowing costs forced the Fed to hold its terminal rate projections despite upward revisions to inflation and downward revisions to unemployment forecasts.UK 10-Year Bond Yield Steady Around 3-Week High
The yield on the UK’s 10-year Gilt stabilized around 3.5%, hovering around its highest level since March 10th, amid expectations that another interest rate hike by the Bank of England looks more likely in May. Governor Andrew Bailey stressed last week that interest rates may have to move higher if there were signs of persistent inflationary pressure after UK inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February and food inflation rose to a record high in March. He also noted that the UK banking system was resilient, with robust capital and liquidity positions, and well placed to support the economy, suggesting worries about the impact of banking turmoil were taking a back seat. In the US, the Federal Reserve may need to increase interest rates again at its next meeting as concerns over a sticky inflation mounted after a surprise announcement by major oil producers to cut production targets further.

Gold Rebounds Above $1,980
Gold rebounded to above $1,980 an ounce on Monday, after the latest data showed factory activity contracted for the fifth month in March and the most since May of 2020. Earlier in the day, a surprise cut in oil production of more than 1 million barrels per day from OPEC+ raised inflation concerns and bets of higher interest rates, sending the dollar higher. Markets are now pricing an over 60% chance that the Fed will deliver a quarter-point rate hike in May. The ECB is also expected to continue to raise rates and the BoE signaled last week it may need to raise borrowing costs again.

Sugar Rises to Over 6-Year High
Raw sugar futures in the US surged above $22.4 per pound in early April, the most in over six years, supported by expectations of higher biofuel demand and lower output from key producers. Crude oil prices soared after OPEC+ announced a surprise output cut, encouraging sugarcane producers to allocate crops to more profitable biofuel blending instead of sugar crushing and limiting the sweetener supply as a result. To add, Brazil’s new federal government ended its tax exemption program for gasoline, raising demand for lower-taxed sugarcane ethanol and adding to the momentum for biofuel blending. Elsewhere, crop damage and unfavorable weather in Thailand and India pressured output projections from other major producers.

Sensex Eases from Over 2-Week PeaksThe BSE Sensex fell 66.4 points or 0.1% to 58,925.1 in early deals on Monday, erasing gains in the previous two sessions which saw the index hit over a 2-week high, amid renewed inflation concerns following a surge in oil prices after a surprise output cut by the OPEC+. India, the world’s third-largest importer of oil, disadvantages from a rise in prices as it brings up imported inflation. The index also tracked a fall in US stock futures, with traders continuing to assess the Fed’s next move after softer-than-expected PCE data Friday. Investors also anticipate the RBI’s monetary policy decision this week, as the central bank is expected to hike interest rate by 25bps to 6.75%. The RBI has raised repo rates by 250bps since May 2022, bringing the rate to a level of January 2019. Technology index fell the most, followed by metals, and consumer goods,  amid a sharp decline in Bharat Petroleum (-2.7%), Persistent (-1.9%), Godrej Consumer Products (-1.4%), and Tech Mahindra (-1.3%).

Russian Stocks Lifted by OPEC+
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.9% higher at 2,473 on Monday, extending last week’s gain to its highest in seven months with support from heavyweight energy producers. Shares from major oil companies soared after OPEC+ nations announced a surprising oil output cut. Russia announced it will cut production by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of the year, doubling the cut announced in February. Tatneft closed 4% higher, while Rosneft, Lukoil, and Surgut advanced more than 2%. Besides the clear benefit for oil companies, the rise in crude oil prices supported broader sentiment in the Russian economy as larger energy revenues for the Russian government ease the extraordinary tax programs for other sectors, mandated by the Federal Government amid its unsustainably wide budget deficit. Banks rose by 1.5% on average, adding over 23% year-to-date, while metallurgists added 0.8% despite the sharp drop in steel prices.

European Stocks Cautiously Lower
European equity markets closed slightly lower on Monday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 falling to 457, dragged by Germany’s DAX while London’s FTSE 100, France’s CAC and Italy’s FTSE MIB closed higher. Among sectors, oil and gas stocks rallied by 4% after OPEC+ announced a surprise production cut of more than 1 million barrels a day, sending crude prices to one-month highs. Meanwhile, banks added 0.5% while other major sectors finished in the red. On the data front, investors digested final manufacturing PMI data from major European countries that showed the Eurozone factory activity in March remained in contraction territory for a ninth straight month.

UK Stocks Rise for 6th Session
Equities in London extended gains for the sixth consecutive session on Monday, with the FTSE 100 index rising 0.5% to 7,673, driven by the energy sector. Oil giants Shell and BP jumped more than 4% each as crude oil prices skyrocketed following an unexpected production cut by OPEC+. On the other hand, Cineworld Group plummeted by over 30% after the cinema operator said it had terminated the sale process for its US, UK, and Ireland businesses.

US Stocks End Mixed After OPEC+ Surprise
The Dow Jones closed more than 320 points higher and the S&P 500 added nearly 0.4% on Monday, the first trading day of the second quarter, while the Nasdaq dipped 0.3%, as investors digest a surprise cut in oil output from OPEC+ and the impact it could have on inflation and the Fed’s monetary policy. Money markets now see a 65% probability of a 25bps rate hike in the fed funds rate next month, compared to 55% earlier. Energy stocks including Exxon Mobil (5.9%), Chevron (4.1%), and Marathon Oil (9.9%) were up. On the other hand, Tesla stocks fell 6.1% after the company missed first-quarter deliveries estimates. Meanwhile, traders also await key economic data to be released during this week, including ISM Services PMI, JOLTS, ADP employment and the highly-anticipated NFP. The ISM manufacturing PMI showed factory activity shrank for a 5th month. In the first quarter of the year, the Nasdaq surged 16.8%, its best quarter since Q2 2020, the S&P 500 gained 7% and the Dow Jones 0.4%.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers surprisingly announced a production cut of around 1.15 million barrels of crude oil per day at a meeting in Dubai today. Actually, the meeting of the alliance was only planned for Monday, and no change in the offer was expected. The promotion cartel around OPEC, to which Russia also belongs, gives the expected weakening of demand as a reason. This decision is likely to catch the oil market on the wrong foot.

Saudi Arabia is leading the oil cartel, taking on nearly half of the cuts with a supply shortage of 500,000 barrels a day. Other members such as Russia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Algeria are following suit. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said today that Moscow will now extend its unilateral cut by 500,000 barrels beyond the summer to the end of 2023. Moscow announced these cuts in February after the introduction of western price caps (oil price caps). Broken down by member, the daily supply reduction decided today breaks down as follows:   Saudi Arabia: 500,000 barrels
down as follows:   Russia: 500,000 barrels
down as follows:   Iraq: 211,000 barrels
down as follows:   UAE: 144,000 barrels
down as follows:   Kuwait: 128,000 barrels
down as follows:   Kazakhstan: 78,000 barrels
down as follows:   Algeria: 48,000 barrels
down as follows:   Oman: 40,000 barrels

The impact of OPEC cuts beginning next month will add up to about 1.15 million barrels a day. Beginning in July, the market will see about 1.6 million barrels a day less crude oil than previously expected due to the extension of Russia’s existing supply curtailment.

Cartel is sticking together to the displeasure of the USA – and is not sending our so-called West out of stagflation with this action, which is wanted by economic policy! But on the contrary! It remains to be hoped that the interest rate hikes, which were the only antidote to green economic policy, will take effect as quickly as possible – that inflation will fall as quickly as possible. The green economic policy of recent years will implode in our so-called West – which the OPEC countries also know. After Russia’s unilateral cuts in response to the West’s imposition of a price cap on Russian crude, US officials said the alliance with other OPEC members was weakening, but this latest move shows that cooperation within OPEC+ remains very strong. And confirms my assumption that the rising oil price in our so-called West is so expensive because of ideological economic green priorities. As a democrat in the West, you simply accept a higher price – under the cloak of democracy. We used to be in socialism – monetary material poverty organized by the state. That’s why we go out at the current closing price – and limit our losses immediately. Because I can`t and won`t rule out price actions spiraling upwards. And that also in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

However,
we`re out of our short UKOIL 4XSetUp trading capability since Monday closed on 2023/04/03:

date                   entry      target      stop              TradingView                       date           closed          profit

2023/04/03       82.19       89.05       60.30          short  TVC:UKOIL            2023/02/23       85.04       –  3.47%

Regardless of that let`s briefly throw a detailed overview of our open 4XSetUps:

                 TradingView Symbol since entry       target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545       1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26       170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945       34420 22875
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434       35228 31148
long NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81       262.47 166.71
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299       17675 2586
long NYSE:BABA 2023/03/29 99.29       125.84 79.48
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09       63583.07 52516.76

However, lets look on the oil traday price action today,
as brent throw up after this bullish shock wave news – even on surprise cut from OPEC
Brent crude futures surged about 7% to above $85 per barrel on Monday, hitting its strongest levels in 1 month after OPEC+ announced a surprise production cut of more than 1 million barrels a day. This complicates the outlook for inflation and interest rates, as investors had been betting that easing price pressures would give central banks room to pause the current tightening cycle. A dispute involving Kurdish authorities which halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey also tightened the market since last week, and seemed unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.