2023/04/02 (203) Column

Back To Reality
Work And/Or CFD`s
And That With The Help Of Every Single D2D Edition Which Helps You
To Help Yourself To Make Better Decisions (Buying/Selling Or No Trading)
And That Not Only But Rather With Central Bank 4XSetUps
So That You Don`t Just Generate Profits But Rather More & More Learning & Learning
With The Help Of Using Until 5 Different Angles About Financial Market Price Actions Daily


In this column, as in the whole week, I would like to formulate again as much detail and clearly why reading my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper is useful for every interested fellow human being who wants to make money with the help of securities, especially CFD derivatives. CFD`s (Contracts for Difference) are derivative products that allow you to trade financial markets such as stocks, forex, indices and commodities without having to physically buy or sell stocks, currencies and/or futures. With CFD´s you speculate on the performance of an underlying asset without actually acquiring this asset. So that you do not acquire the share directly, but the right to exchange the performance of a price based on the share.

If you pursue another professional activity to earn your living, you must first organize your everyday life (i.e. your job and your CFD trading). And that only works if you formulate a time frame and/or trading framework. A time frame to get your life organized – and/or a trading frame also to know what to do while your CFD trading. By the way, on my homepage you can get learning videos and/or templates from my books about these topics.

All information from each individual 4 SetUp – from the Central Bank 4XSetUps, Ecomonic 4XSetUps, Financial Market 4XSetUps, Scenario 4XSetUps, and/or Technical Analysis 4XSetUps – always has only one goal! Should I therefore buy/sell or not trade, because of any Central Bank 4XSetUp information?

Central banks are of crucial importance not only for us CFD traders but rather for everyone – because they`re the banks of the banks. The producers of money, if you will. And because we live in a world in which private individuals and/or companies, even like states borrow money from banks, which central banks not only produce but also lend out, the key interest rate of every central bank, in every economic area, is even of crucial importance. After all, the aim of every central bank is always to conserve the public good, namely the currency (ie its own product, if you will) in a stable manner, so that we and our fellow human beings have confidence in the currency. Because every currency should and/or must not only protect savers and income earners from loss of assets, but also always cultivate growth and employment. That´s why the central goal of every central bank is always to ensure so-called price stability. So keeping inflation in check.

That’s why I inform you daily, day by day, with Central Bank 4XSetUps, with new old informations from central banks, with references. Analyze and evaluate them too, so that you, yes you, are better informed every day than all other financial market participants who do not read our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newspaper – in order to make even better trading decisions (buying/selling or not trading).DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Tartarsky Assassination Shocks Russian Propaganda Scene

Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko has declared his readiness to station “strategic” Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. “If necessary, Putin and I will decide whether to station strategic weapons here,” Lukashenko said in a televised address to the nation on Friday. “We will stop at nothing to defend our countries, our states and our people,” he added.

The “strategic” nuclear weapons have a greater range and effectiveness than the “tactical” nuclear weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin said last weekend that Russia would station “tactical” nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Selenskyj Sees The Security Council Compromised by Russia

Only the day before, a five-month-old baby had been killed by Russian artillery fire, and now the aggressor is taking over the presidency of the UN Security Council, Zelenskyj criticized in his evening video address on Saturday. “It is hard to imagine anything that better demonstrates the complete bankruptcy of such institutions.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba described the leadership role as a “bad April Fool’s joke”.

The presidency of the Security Council rotates monthly between the member states in alphabetical order, with the five permanent and the ten non-permanent members taking turns. Russia last held the presidency in February 2022 – when it invaded neighboring Ukraine. But Zelenskyy also had positive things to announce for his compatriots. Ukraine emerged stronger from the week, said the head of state. Among other things, he thanked Germany for the military aid. A few days ago, the arrival of German Marder and Leopard 2 armored personnel carriers and battle tanks in the Ukraine became known. Zelenskyy expressed his gratitude to Switzerland for having now joined the EU sanctions against Russia.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Dow Ends Strong Week With Gains

At the end of an encouraging stock market week, prices on the US stock markets rose again. Relief prevailed among investors on Friday in view of the new inflation data. The PCE price index, which is preferred by the US Federal Reserve, did not rise quite as much in February as analysts had expected. The Dow Jones Industrial rose by 1.26 percent to 33,274.15 points and for the first time in three weeks passed the 33,000 point mark. Since the beginning of the year, the Dow has been moderately up again.

The S&P 500 gained 1.44 percent to 4109.31 points. That meant the highest level since mid-February. The Nasdaq 100 was up 1.68% to 13,181.35 points – even to its highest level since August 2022.

Forex
DXY Eases Some Gains, Heads for Monthly Drop
Chinese Yuan Gains on Robust Economic Data

10Y Government Bond Yields
US Treasury Yields Pull Back
UK 10-Year Bond Yield Hits 3-Week High

Commodties
Silver Trades Near $24.0
Gold Set for Large Monthly Gain

Stock Markets
Sensex Books Strongest Session Since November
Russian Shares Erase Gains
European Shares Rise on Signs of Easing Inflation
FTSE 100 Rises for Fifth Session, Posts Quarterly Gains
US Stocks Wrap Up A Winning QuarterDXY Eases Some Gains, Heads For Monthly Drop
The dollar index eased some gains on Friday, as investors pulled back bets on further monetary tightening after the core PCE price inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure inflation, slowed more than expected to 4.6% in February, the lowest in 15 months. Earlier, several Fed policymakers suggested more monetary tightening would be needed to tame inflation, even after the recent turmoil in the banking sector. Money market bets are now pricing in an over 50% chance that the US central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points in May and pause afterward. Meanwhile, the dollar index is on track for a third consecutive weekly decline and is down more than 2% in March as the ending of the Fed’s rate-tightening cycle spooked investors. The DXY lost more than 1% in this year’s first quarter.

Chinese Yuan Gains On Robust Economic Data
The offshore yuan appreciated past 6.88 per dollar, heading back to its strongest levels in over six weeks as better-than-expected domestic economic data boosted risk sentiment. Latest data showed that China’s manufacturing activity slowed slightly in March, but came in above market forecasts and remained expansionary for the third straight month. Meanwhile, services activity accelerated the most in 12 years, boosted by strong domestic demand. On the monetary policy front, the People’s Bank of China recently announced a surprise cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratio for the first time this year to aid the economic recovery. The central bank also held its key lending rates steady at its March fixing, with the one-year loan prime rate at 3.65% and that of the five-year at 4.3%. The yuan is on track to advance for the second consecutive quarter.

US Treasury Yields Pull Back
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs worldwide, eased to the 3.5% mark from the one-week high of 3.6% touched on March 28th as investors digested the latest economic data for hints on the extent that the Federal Reserve may still tighten policy. Core PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred gauge to measure inflation in the US economy, rose by 0.3% in February and beat expectations of a 0.4% increase, easing pressure on the central bank to increase borrowing costs. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended the first quarter of 2023 down roughly 30bps, as instability in the US financial sector drove investors to pile onto the safety of government debt. Hampered confidence in the sector and the banks’ vulnerability to higher borrowing costs forced the Fed to hold its terminal rate projections despite upward revisions to inflation and downward revisions to unemployment forecasts.

UK 10-Year Bond Yield Hits 3-Week High
The yield on the UK’s 10-year Gilt rose above 3.5%, hitting its highest level since March 10th, amid expectations that another interest rate hike by the Bank of England looks more likely in May. Governor Andrew Bailey stressed on Monday that interest rates may have to move higher if there were signs of persistent inflationary pressure after UK inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February and food inflation rose to a record high in March. He also noted that the UK banking system was resilient, with robust capital and liquidity positions, and well placed to support the economy, suggesting worries about the impact of banking turmoil were taking a back seat. In the US, the Federal Reserve expects to deliver one more quarter-point rate hike this year, while markets have priced in a high chance of the Fed’s standing pat on interest rates in May and anticipate a rate cut in July.

Silver Trades Near $24.0
Silver futures were trading near $24.0 per ounce on Friday, their highest in nearly two months, as fears about the recent banking system crisis receded after rescue and liquidity measures from authorities. Meantime, the Federal Reserve signaled a final one-quarter-point interest rate increase in its tightening cycle. Limited supplies of the precious metal provided an almost 3.5% gain for the week and over 13% advance for the month. Traders now anticipate the release of US core PCE data for clues on how the Fed’s next move.

Gold Set for Large Monthly Gain
Gold steadied around $1,980 an ounce on Friday and was set to gain more than 8% in March, as investors wagered that interest rates have likely reached near their peak in this tightening cycle. Such expectations were driven by easing global inflationary pressures and efforts by major central banks to avoid a broader banking crisis. The recent banking turmoil which started with the collapse of two regional lenders in the US also spurred safe-haven demand for gold this month. On the monetary policy front, the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate hike at its March meeting and hinted at just one more rate increase. Meanwhile, money markets are currently pricing a 40% chance that the central bank will pause its rate hikes in May, with rate cuts expected by year’s end. Traders now look ahead to core US PCE data for clues on the Fed’s next move as well as remarks from several Fed officials.

US Stocks Wrap Up A Winning Quarter
Wall Street extended gains for the third straight session and closed higher on Friday, the last trading day of the month and quarter. The Dow rose more than 400 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq added 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the US core personal consumption expenditures price index, came below expectations at 4.6%, in the latest signal that inflation peaked while sparking speculation that the Fed’s rate-tightening cycle could end soon. Still, several Fed policymakers this week suggested more monetary tightening would be needed to tame inflation, even after the recent turmoil in the banking sector. Today, Fed William also said the banking crisis will play a role in assessing the next rate move of the Fed while inflation remains a top concern. For the first quarter, tech shares booked top gains as Nasdaq jumped 17.6%, while the Dow and the S&P 500 0.4% rose and 7.4%, respectively.

FTSE 100 Rises for Fifth Session, Posts Quarterly Gains
Equities in London extended gains for the fifth consecutive session on Friday, with the FTSE 100 index closing above the 7,650 mark, driven by the consumer cyclicals sector. On the economic front, British house prices slid in March at the fastest annual rate since the financial crisis, mortgage lender Nationwide said. Among single stocks, M&G jumped 4% to lead the index higher, while Imperial Brands was down over 2% to be among the biggest laggards. The FTSE 100 rallied over 3% this week, the best weekly performance since early January, supported by easing concerns about the global banking sector and speculation about the end of the rate-tightening cycle. Meantime, the export-oriented index is on track to end March on a weak note, down roughly 3%, but poised to end the first quarter up more than 2.5%.

European Shares Rise on Signs of Easing Inflation
Equity markets in Europe extended gains on Friday, with both the pan-European STOXX 600 and Germany’s DAX 40 hitting fresh three-week highs, after data suggested inflationary pressures in the Euro Area and the US continued to ease. The latest CPI report for the bloc showed consumer prices rose 6.9% in March, the least for overa year, as energy prices posted the first annual decline in two years, while the core rate accelerated to a new peak of 5.7%. At the same time,the US PCE report showed core inflation in the world’s largest economy came in below expectations in February, supporting hopes of a softer monetary policy approach from the Federal Reserve. In other economic news, Germany’s import price inflation cooled more than expected to a two-year low, while the country’s retail trade unexpectedly fell. The STOXX 600 was still down in March, with banks suffering their worst monthly performance since March 2020 due to fears of a banking crisis.

Russian Shares Erase Gains
The ruble-based MOEX Russia index erased early gains and closed 0.6% lower at 2,450 on Friday, easing from the sharp upswing over the week with pressure from all major sectors of the Moscow Exchange as investors further assessed Russian efforts to recover from Western sanctions. Gazprom trimmed gains from the week to close 1.2% lower as investors continued to monitor the outlook and timeline of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to China. The pipeline and other implementations of new supply chains are vital for the company as the halt of exports to Europe and low natural gas prices halted much of the company’s activity. Outside the main sectors, Aeroflot shares sank 4.2% after the company announced it will not pay dividends for 2022. Still, the MOEX gained 2.3% on the week and 13.8% on the first quarter of 2022.

Sensex Books Strongest Session Since November
The BSE Sensex closed 1,020 points higher at 58,990 on Friday, its strongest session since November, with support from tech and energy shares as investors returned from Thursday’s holiday. The rally for shares in the technology sector was supported by news of Alibaba’s spinoff during the week, tracking gains for the sector worldwide amid hopes that Beijing will mandate corporate-friendly policies. Infosys shares soared by 3.2%, while TCS added more than 2%. Strong manufacturing PMI data from China also buoyed sentiment, carrying base metal prices and commodity-linked equities traded in Mumbai. In the meantime, Reliance Industries surged by 4.2% as it started the process of demerger of its financial services business. On the week, the Sensex added more than 2%.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

This week I want to know
will the price of oil fall again?

Because our short UKOIL 4XSetUp is the only current open position that we currently have. And it also looks good that in the coming days, weeks and months, the price of oil should continue to fall. Because our isolated economic areas, in our so called west, with their different individual currencies, will probably not experience an economic upswing in 2023, so that demand for oil from our so-called West will largely not materialize. Probably won’t even happen when we slide into a recession – and individual consumers have to ask themselves; „whether it wouldn’t be better for my wallet if I didn’t drive the car after all!?“ An incredible fact; but everyday life, in times of stagflation. On the other hand, there are also many who expect increased demand from China; which I do not disagree. But I don’t think that should push oil prices back above $100? Let alone can keep it! We had this issue more than 10 years ago when the price of oil was already trading at over 100 USD! And what didn’t we have then? That’s right – the Ukraine war. And I think that the whole overheated commodity market, especially the gas and oil prices, should calm down again as soon as we hear more peaceful news from this region of the world. Just like weeks ago from the peace agreement between Sunites and/or Shiites – who are (as you surely now too, as a loyal reader of my D2D) the largest OPEC members. Which is even one of the reasons why I unspokenly formulated our UKOIL short 4XSetUps.

And not that we misunderstand each other?
The reason for the rising costs at the petrol stations lies in the fiscal policies and green economic policies of our individual different governments – and their green policies – which are falling on our political class’ feet! And costs us consumers (just at the gas station)! And hopefully will be voted out as soon as possible in the coming national and/or local elections…Regardless of the daily (not) new informations,
let`s once afain briefly throw a detailed overview of our open ongoing 4XSetUp trading capabilities :

                 TradingView Symbol since entry       target stop

long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545       1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26       170.08 121.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945       34420 22875
long CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434       35228 31148
long NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81       262.47 166.71
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299       17675 2586
long NYSE:BABA 2023/03/29 99.29       125.84 79.48
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09       63583.07 52516.76

All our 4XSetUps are in the money – that`s the most important news!
„But not everything that glitters is gold“, as we say colloquially here in Germany.
And I feel that somehow, especially in the context about the oil price action. Because I’m afraid that my hypothesis, formulated mathematical and semantic conclusions, maybe were too optimistic bearish.

However, Crude Oil Eases, Still Set for Sharp Weekly Gain
Brent crude futures traded around $78.5 per barrel on Friday and were headed for the second straight weekly advance, underpinned by supply concerns and an improving demand outlook. A dispute involving Kurdish authorities which halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey tightened the market this week, and seemed unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. OPEC’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia also said the oil cartel should keep supplies steady for 2023 as it navigates a fragile recovery in global oil demand, recently clouded by the banking turmoil. On the demand side, investors remain optimistic about China’s recovery, with PetroChina and Cnooc Ltd. saying a rebounding domestic economy can help cushion the impact of slower global growth. Meanwhile, markets continued to assess the likely direction of central bank monetary policy in light of the recent banking crisis.