2023/03/30 (202) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!


That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Putin`s war: Kremlin remains confident of victory – but expects long conflict with West

According to the Kremlin, Russia is preparing for a long war with the West over Ukraine. «This is a confrontation with hostile states, with unfriendly countries, this is a hybrid war that they launched against our country. This is for a long time, »said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday. “Here we need toughness, self-conviction, determination and unity around the President.” According to Peskov, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin’s course in the war against Ukraine has great support in Russia. Secretary of Russia’s National Security Council Nikolai Patrushev said at a meeting with international colleagues in India that Russia will be victorious in the war against Ukraine. “Regardless of the steadily increasing military aid to Ukraine from the United States and other Western countries, all of the stated objectives of the military special operation will certainly be achieved,” he said in New Delhi. Patrushev named the “demilitarization” of the country as a goal.

At the same time, Putin’s confidante accused the NATO states of being actively involved in the war, for example by training Ukrainian soldiers in the West. Patrushev, who met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, among others, also warned of the danger of the situation escalating to the point of a confrontation between nuclear powers. He emphasized that Russia is committed to international agreements that nuclear war is inadmissible.
Russia in particular has been criticized internationally for nuclear intimidation. Most recently, Putin announced the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. In addition, the country has put its strategic nuclear weapons on increased alert in the war against Ukraine to deter NATO.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Dow rises to highest level in three weeks

The recovery on the stock markets in the US continued on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial rose 0.43 percent to 32,859.03 points, its highest level in three weeks. According to stockbrokers, the index has now left the downward trend that began in mid-February with the latest gains. In view of the recent turbulence in the banking sector, a more relaxed attitude is spreading on the part of investors. Investors on the US bond market no longer rely more on safe paper. The S&P 500 sector of financial stocks has meanwhile stabilized noticeably from the recent low in the past week.

The market-wide S&P 500 gained 0.57 percent on Thursday to 4050.83 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index rose 0.91 percent to 12,963.14 points.
But there are still skeptics on the market. “Although the recent mini-crisis in the banking sector appears to be well contained, the risk of further turbulence increases with every further rate hike,” wrote Seema Shah, strategist at Principal Asset Management with regard to the US Federal Reserve. Any further interest rate hikes increase economic and financial pressures and thus the likelihood of further crises, according to Shah.Forex
DXY Under Renewed Pressure

10Y Government Bind Yields
German 10-Year Bund Yield Rises Further

Commodties
Brent Crude Hovers Around $79

Stock Markets
China Stocks Extend Losing Streak
European Stocks Extend Gains for 2nd Session

DXY Under Renewed Pressure
The dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, depreciating toward the 102 mark as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy. The financial turmoil, which started earlier in March with the collapse of two regional banks, has prompted investors to reprice expectations of future monetary tightening by the US central bank. Money markets are now pricing a pause in interest rate hikes in May, with rate cuts expected soon after that. All eyes now turn to a critical measure of US inflation and several speeches from Fed officials this week. The most pronounced selling activity was against the euro and the British pound.

German 10-Year Bund Yield Rises Further
The yield on the German 10-year Bund rose to the 2.3% level, extending its upswing since hitting the six-week low of 2.1% on March 20th as investors digested the latest economic data for hints on incoming policy decisions from the European Central Bank. German inflation fell to 7.4% annually in March, slowing considerably from the previous month due to base-year effects from the war in Ukraine, but still surpassed expectations of 7.3%. On the other hand, price growth in Spain was well below forecasts at 3.3%, splitting expectations on how restrictive the ECB may need to be to curb inflation. In the meantime, eased concerns of vulnerability in the European banking sector reduced demand for the safety of government debt, lifting yields from recent lows.

Brent Crude Hovers Around $79
Brent crude futures were trading around the $79 per barrel mark on Thursday as signs of a recovery in demand offset a smaller-than-expected drop in Russian supplies. The latest EIA report showed that US crude inventories unexpectedly declined by 7.489 million barrels last week, the most since November last year, defying expectations for a 0.092 million barrel rise. On top of that, a dispute involving Kurdish authorities halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey. On top of that, a dispute involving Kurdish authorities halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey. On the other hand, it was reported that Russia’s crude production has fallen by about 300,000 barrels a day in the three weeks of March, roughly 200,000 barrels less than the targeted cuts.

China Stocks Extend Losing Streak
The Shanghai Composite fell 0.5% to around 3,225 while the Shenzhen Component dropped 0.4% to 11,530 on Thursday, extending their losing streak amid a lack of positive catalysts. Investors continued to assess the impact of Alibaba’s major restructuring on China’s technology sector, after the firm announced that it will split into six units that will each have the ability to raise outside funding and go public. Elsewhere, newly-minted Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized in his first international address the need for peace as a “prerequisite for development.”

European Stocks Extend Gains for 2nd Session
European equity markets rose for the second session on Thursday, with the pan-European STOXX 600 up 1.1% led by retail stocks as shares of retail giant H&M rallied 17% after reporting a surprise operating profit for the December-February period. Domestically, the German DAX rose 1.3% to above 15,522, the highest close since March 9, as investors digested key inflation data and as concerns about the recent banking turmoil continued to ease. The latest CPI reports showed inflationary pressures in both Germany and Spain cooled sharply in March, with rates of inflation falling to seven and 20-month lows, respectively. Still, the numbers came in well above the European Central Bank’s target of 2%. Investors now await Eurozone price data due tomorrow for further cues on the central bank’s next moves.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

First Citizens BancShares Inc. has agreed to buy Silicon Valley Bank, which was seized by regulators after a run on the lender. The Raleigh, North Carolina-based bank entered into a purchase and acquisition agreement for all of SVB’s deposits and loans, according to a statement from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The deal involves the purchase of approximately $72 billion of SVB assets at a $16.5 billion discount. Approximately $90 billion in securities and other assets remains in receivership and will be sold by the FDIC, while the agency also receives $500 million in stock appreciation rights in First Citizens. The estimated cost of failure to the Deposit Insurance Fund is approximately $20 billion, with the exact size to be determined only after the administration is completed, the statement said. “This was a remarkable transaction in partnership with the FDIC that was designed to restore confidence in the banking system,” First Citizens chief executive officer Frank Holding Jr. said in a statement.

The another big story, what drives the proce action, was, if o`m nit wring, that the troubled Credit Suisse is swallowed up by its domestic rival UBS. The deal will be completed through a 22.5:1 share swap. According to the information, UBS will pay three billion francs for the takeover of Credit Suisse. The purchase price is thus well below CS’s market value of CHF 7.4 billion before the negotiations. It was therefore no great surprise that the share price plummeted by a good 50 percent at the beginning of the week after the announcement of the bank wedding. In order to reduce potential risks for UBS from the takeover of loss-making assets, the Swiss government has granted the major bank a guarantee of CHF 9 billion. “This acquisition is attractive for UBS shareholders, but it is clear – as far as Credit Suisse is concerned, this is an emergency rescue,” said UBS chairman Colm Kelleher. The unrest in the banking market is meanwhile also gripping our German industry leader. Chancellor Scholz tries to appease. Deutsche Bank is newly organized and a very profitable bank. France’s head of state Macron blames speculators for the downturn on the stock exchanges. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed his confidence in the European banking system and in Deutsche Bank. “There is no reason to worry about anything,” he said at the end of the EU summit in Brussels, alluding to the institute’s share price, which collapsed at times. “Deutsche Bank has fundamentally modernized and reorganized its business model and is a very profitable bank.” French President Emmanuel Macron blamed “speculators” for the recent slide in bank values on the stock exchanges. The European banking system is stable and robust, said the SPD politician.

In retrospect, a storm in a teacup – like the financial crisis of 2008 and/or the price action during the coronavirus outbreak in 2020. Sure, looking back, you’re always smarter than before. That`s why, the panic should be over for the time being in the financial market. That’s it for now.

Regardless, let`s take a look at our currently open 4XSetUps,
after we closed our short NASDAQ:NDX 4XSetUp with a lost of -4.80%, on wednesday last week!
short        NASDAQ:NDX 2023/03/06 12290 11152 12880

Our other long 4XSetUps are in the money yet, so in the direction we expected.
Nevertheless, the process action is currently more volatile than ever. Because the news situation is a tsunami – if you let the sum of money what is at stake melting in your mouth.

                 TradingView Symbol since entry target stop
long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30
short        TVC:UKOIL 2023/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945 34420 22875
long          CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434 35228 31148
long          NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81 262.47 166.71
long EUREX:FDAX1! 2023/03/28 15299 17675 12586
long NYSE:BABA 2023/03/29 99.29 125.84 79.48

Due to the current situation just described and briefly commented on the price action, I will formulate a few new 4XSetUps, this week – every day. Because I think the panic is out of the price action! And that´s why is this not a buy signal – admittedly, not an issue. But at least an indicator that the shares in New York are not going down any further and/or in Chicago DXY and/or the US Yield Curve higher! Or?

However, for today formulated a new old long long 4XSetUps for the indian S&P BSE Sensex Index:
long BSE:SENSEX 2023/03/30 57960.09 63583.07 52516.76