2023/03/27 (199) Column

Opportunity To Reinvest
In Realistic Optimism
Put 90% Of Your Portfolio Into Secure And/Or Safe 12 Month Yields
– So That You Won`t Lose Much Until At Least Back To March Next Year
With The Remaining Assets Of Your Trading Account, You Can Trade Further 4XSetUp Operations
This Spring And/Or Summer`23! But That Only With A Maximum Of 0,5% Of Your Total Value!

That’s it! I don’t have a better idea how we, as market guys,
even you my reader, yes you, you, yes you, i mean you, can better prepare your own for the next 12 months!

I think that this basic portfolio approach also suits my personality.
Just a fundamentally conservative freedom-loving attitude: And that´s why 90% conservative US yields (in 12 months, which yield approx. 5%). And with the rest we can live out our freedom on the financial market; and that by trading (buying/selling or doing nothing) as we want; with 0,5% 4XSetUps positions of our total trading account value. Of course, this thought is may be also not suitable for all my readers. I personally know a few adventurers, yes friends, who will definitely want to reverse this portfolio approach; and have already invest 90% and more in BITCOIN. And argue that I’ve become too boring! That`s not right! I’ve never been bored – put your right hand on your heart – rather always neatly and clearly detailed. And actually always fundamentally competent in all my activities; even adventurers still try to deny me about my skills as long I can remember.

However, long story short knowledge:
90% invest in safe interest securities, like in the us, where there you can get 5% fpr 12 months.
So that you can be sure that in the worst nightmare scenario you will still have 95% of your portfolio value in 12 monaths. Should we fail with the remaining 4XSetUps operations! I’m not assuming that today! You?

Enough strategy and tactics for now.
Allow me to say a few words about today’s column.
I’ll be repeating this column throughout this month. Because although I’ve learned to concentrate on day-to-day business, I’ve also practiced not losing the weekly, monthly and/or even yearly overview. Even if we, as imperfect market participants, always only trade faulty price actions, because all of us involved participants are only human. And also computer-aided trading programs; which all were programmed by humans.

Opportunity to reinvest in realistic optimism; that is the title of this column

In 2022, both stocks and bonds have made significant losses! Speak; share prices have fallen and/or yields have risen. I don’t know when was the last time that happened? In any case, the year 2022 was and is a “double dose of disappointment”, as the US bank Wells Fargo recently wrote in one of its market reports. Although many negative factors from last year 2022 will continue to accompany us financial market participants in 2023 I’m not pessimistic, rather I expect 2023 that it will be volatile and challenging, which will give us market guys with no fears about the future also opportunities to position ourselves realistically optimistic for growth before the next bull market, not only in stocks! Maybe stock market bullmarket has already started?

I do not (yet) expect a global recession in 2023.
I would like to see negative GDP quarter before I start thinking about a second, subsequent recession. So I can very well imagine that the stock markets, on Wall Street, could anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year. But the US Inflation is too high; and/or the US Yield Curve is much more attractive. And here lies the rabbit burried in the pepper! That`s why I have temporarily lowered my expectations for the us stock market; an that even as a bull too. And prefer 12-month safe interest-bearing us yield. I also liquidated our long position in EURUSD; and formulated another long position for the DXY. The fact that the USD has turned around more or less 101 points proves to me that US inflation will keep us busy for longer than many bulls on US Wall Street are assuming today. Because the state-organized green Biden inflation continues to eat into every wallet of every American, like a cancerous growth. Even if most of them don’t address it for political reasons.

However, since the FED is unlikely to achieve its target of 2% inflation by the end of 2023, it will be difficult for Wall Street in New York in the coming weeks and months. That’s why cash is king – that’s why 12 Month Yields are my absolute 4XSetUp for this year 2023. Because the FED will start cutting interest rates again in 2024 at the earliest; this is now an open secret! Or? Meanwhile the majority of financial market participants have also come to this expectation for the future, so that there is still a great potential for disappointment; and that also for our currently running 4XSetUp Trading Capabilities. Because the international stock markets are confronted with headwinds; the consequences of an higher inflation. I mean stagflation: Everthing is going more expensive but we`re not growthing! How should we come out of this left socialist spiral of a state-organized scarcity economy? Right! Only with growth! How else? With even more debt? That`s why I prefer 90% cash and/or preferably 12-month yields. So that we can then use the remaining 10% of our depot, to realize individual small 4XSetUp operations until spring next ear 2024. Please, and that always with a maximum of only 0,5% of the total trading value.. So that in addition to our chunk of 12-month yields, we can open up to 20 little 4XSetUps operations and/or close them again at any time!

As you can see, I’m realistically optimistic that we won’t experience a recession in 2023. And if we do, it should be flat, in a historical context! What do I mean? GDP growth in the 4 quarters of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year between +1% & -1%. However, this can be worse in some regions, such as the United Kingdom, as well as in individual countries in the euro zone. As the combination of lower growth, simmering inflation and limited public spending poses challenges for both citizens and/or governments. Nevertheless, as a conservative, freedom-loving Catholic, with a Croatian immigration background, I am more than optimistic for my home country Germany for example, that our non-denominational, socialdemocrat Chancellor Scholz will support our domestic german economy, in this year 2023, to the best of his knowledge and belief, with the help of the liberals and/or greens parties.

This is my new basic expectation
and/or trading account support for you!

90% of your portfolio value in 12-month yields
0,5% of your portfolio value for 4XSetUps operations

But, what if US inflation does come down after all?
Great, then sooner or later, more or less, we’ll get back into US WallStreet with new long 4XSetUps! And if not, we are more than well served with an interest rate of approx. 5% and that for 90% of our trading account. So that we can focus on large us companies on wallstreet primarily. But I won’t continue to ignore also good stocks outside of it either. Nevertheless, however I prefer the USD a long 4XsetUps in the DXY once again for this year, into next year 2024.

But this time with interest-bearing us bonds – preferably 12 months.
So that you can secure your own depot, ideally up to 90%. And that  without risk, with more or less 5%. What must first be negotiated on US WallStreet. Take this realistic optimistic oppirtunity. There hasn’t been a better opportunity to invest in realistic optimism since the Lehman Brothers disaster in 2008! And that is meanwhile 15 years behind us. But it seems like, that the shock from back than is still in the body of many financial market particpants; as much more many politcal particpants. And many seem to be making the same mistake as back then: I mean, throwing bad credits after bad credits; bad investments after bad investments; bad (political) decissions after bad (political) decissions. Even if incompetent personalities, such as gamblers, and/or other fellow human beings who don`t want to be able to deal with such large sums of money soberly, or even owners of  stock markets funds, for example, argue the opposite…DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Last News About What Drives The News Media

Traffic srees in our german federal government: hanging game under lack of sleep – the endless coalition committee

Finally the knot should burst – but in the end you don’t get to Potte. Instead of breakthroughs after a long argument, the traffic light alliance has nothing to show for nightly talks. The hanging game lasts until Tuesday. One night and a half a day were not enough: the traffic light coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP has interrupted their top-level talks for the time being. Talks are scheduled to continue on Tuesday morning – coalition committee, day three. After debates up to the last minute, some of those involved had to leave hastily on Monday afternoon. A helicopter became a ministerial taxi so that Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and his cabinet members could get to the German-Dutch government consultations in Rotterdam in time. Only Minister of Finance Christian Lindner (FDP) rushed to the airport in the car.

“Inventiveness, lack of sleep – coalition committee,” the FDP leader had tweeted cryptically shortly before. But it wasn’t enough for results, at least on Monday, despite Scholz’ demonstrative optimism at the beginning. The CDU, CSU and leftists from the opposition viewed the interruption as a disgrace and scoffed at the fact that the federal government was “standing k.o.”. Scholz, on the other hand, emphasized after landing in the Netherlands that “very, very good progress was made” and “many, many agreements were reached”. The coalition committee is about important decisions for the modernization of the country, which has progressed too slowly for decades. The talks so far have been very confidential and friendly.DEVISE 2 DAY Another 48h
– Last News About How Drives The Price Action

Bank stocks help Wall Street recover

Investor concerns over the recent turmoil in the US banking sector eased further on Monday. The appetite for risk among investors on New York’s Wall Street increased again, which the market attributed to several causes. Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chairman for banking supervision, defended regulators’ actions, saying the banking system was “solid and resilient”. According to a report by the Bloomberg news agency, the US government is also considering expanding its support for troubled banks. And the First Citizen Bank wants to take over essential parts of the badly hit Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Their collapse is considered one of the triggers for the recent banking turmoil. The Dow Jones Industrial ended the day up 0.60 percent to 32,432.08 points. The market-wide S&P 500 rose by 0.16 percent to 3977.53 points. However, the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100, which had turned negative after the start of trading, ultimately fell by 0.74 percent to 12673.07 points. All three indices started to recover on Friday after initial losses and also posted gains over the course of the past week.Forex
Euro Remains Below 7-Week Peak

Commodties
Brent Climbs to Start the Week

10Y Government Bind Yields
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hovers Around 3.4%

Stock Markets
China Stocks Mixed on Market Caution
European Stocks Start Week Higher

Euro Remains Below 7-Week Peak
The euro hovered around $1.075, down from a seven-week high of $1.0929 touched last Wednesday, as investors dumped riskier currencies on worries over global banking turmoil and recession. The banking crisis continued to spread last week with the UBS forced takeover of Credit Suisse and shares of Deutsche Bank tumbling after the bank said it would redeem a set of tier 2 notes due in 2028. Still, the Euro is likely to regain ground as the policy divergence between the ECB and Federal Reserve is set to widen. ECB President Lagarde said that the central bank is determined to get the inflation back on target and it won’t involve “trade-offs”. On the other hand, markets price in a near 90% chance the Fed stands pat in May and delivers a rate cut in July.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Hovers Around 3.4%
The US 10-year Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, bottomed around 3.4%, close to levels not seen since September 2022, as investors piled into safe-haven assets amid concerns about the global banking sector’s health while weighing the risk of a recession. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari was among the first policymakers to warn that recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the world’s largest economy closer to recession. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve delivered dovish rhetoric along with the loosely-expected 25bps hike in interest rates, indicating that it was on the verge of pausing its tightening campaign to address recent risks to financial stability.

Brent Climbs to Start the Week
Brent crude futures climbed above $75 per barrel on Monday, building on gains from last week as assurances from US regulators allayed investors’ fears over a broader financial crisis. US authorities are contemplating an expanded emergency lending facility for the banking sector, though traders remain wary of further market volatility. Expectations that the Federal Reserve would end its tightening campaign soon and optimism around China’s demand recovery also supported bullish sentiment. Still, the international oil benchmark traded close to its lowest levels since December 2021 as growing fears of a US recession and resilient Russian supply weighed on the market. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is forecasting Brent to break below $60 per barrel in the near term, as reported by Bloomberg.

China Stocks Mixed on Market Caution
The Shanghai Composite fell 0.44% to close at 3,251, while the Shenzhen Component added 0.12% to 11,645 in mixed trade on Monday, as market caution prevailed amid lingering concerns over the global banking crisis, heightened economic uncertainties, and brewing Sino-US tensions. Investors also digested data showing industrial profits in China tumbled 22.9% YoY in the first two months of 2023. Meanwhile, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said China was showing signs of robust economic recovery in remarks delivered at the 2023 China Development Forum on the weekend. Mainland stocks struggled for direction, with strong gains from heavyweight firms.

European Stocks Start Week Higher
European equity markets rose on Monday, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 up 1.1% led by autos and healthcare stocks. The Stoxx bank index added 1.5% and the Deutsche Bank gained more than 6%, the top performer of the German DAX (+1.4%). There were reports that First Citizens BancShares Inc was in advanced talks to acquire Silicon Valley Bank from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, while the US Financial Stability Oversight Council said on Friday the US banking system was “sound and resilient”. In Europe, EU leaders and the ECB also said on Friday that EU lenders were well-capitalized and liquid, aiming to restore confidence in the European banking sector. At the same time, the latest Germany’s IFO survey showed business confidence in Europe’s largest economy improved more than expected in March to the highest level in a year, driven primarily by business expectations.DEVISE 2 DAY 48h
– Where I Was Wrong, Where I Was Right

First Citizens BancShares Inc. has agreed to buy Silicon Valley Bank, which was seized by regulators after a run on the lender. The Raleigh, North Carolina-based bank entered into a purchase and acquisition agreement for all of SVB’s deposits and loans, according to a statement from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The deal involves the purchase of approximately $72 billion of SVB assets at a $16.5 billion discount. Approximately $90 billion in securities and other assets remains in receivership and will be sold by the FDIC, while the agency also receives $500 million in stock appreciation rights in First Citizens. The estimated cost of failure to the Deposit Insurance Fund is approximately $20 billion, with the exact size to be determined only after the administration is completed, the statement said. “This was a remarkable transaction in partnership with the FDIC that was designed to restore confidence in the banking system,” First Citizens chief executive officer Frank Holding Jr. said in a statement.

The another big story, what drives the proce action, was, if o`m nit wring, that the troubled Credit Suisse is swallowed up by its domestic rival UBS. The deal will be completed through a 22.5:1 share swap. According to the information, UBS will pay three billion francs for the takeover of Credit Suisse. The purchase price is thus well below CS’s market value of CHF 7.4 billion before the negotiations. It was therefore no great surprise that the share price plummeted by a good 50 percent at the beginning of the week after the announcement of the bank wedding. In order to reduce potential risks for UBS from the takeover of loss-making assets, the Swiss government has granted the major bank a guarantee of CHF 9 billion. “This acquisition is attractive for UBS shareholders, but it is clear – as far as Credit Suisse is concerned, this is an emergency rescue,” said UBS chairman Colm Kelleher. The unrest in the banking market is meanwhile also gripping our German industry leader. Chancellor Scholz tries to appease. Deutsche Bank is newly organized and a very profitable bank. France’s head of state Macron blames speculators for the downturn on the stock exchanges. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed his confidence in the European banking system and in Deutsche Bank. “There is no reason to worry about anything,” he said at the end of the EU summit in Brussels, alluding to the institute’s share price, which collapsed at times. “Deutsche Bank has fundamentally modernized and reorganized its business model and is a very profitable bank.” French President Emmanuel Macron blamed “speculators” for the recent slide in bank values on the stock exchanges. The European banking system is stable and robust, said the SPD politician.

In retrospect, a storm in a teacup – like the financial crisis of 2008 and/or the price action during the coronavirus outbreak in 2020. Sure, looking back, you’re always smarter than before. That`s why, the panic should be over for the time being in the financial market. That’s it for now.

Regardless, let`s take a look at our currently open 4XSetUps,
after we closed our short NASDAQ:NDX 4XSetUp with a lost of -4.80%, on wednesday last week!

                 TradingView Symbol since entry target stop
short        NASDAQ:NDX 2023/03/06 12290 11152 12880

Our other long 4XSetUps are in the money yet, so in the direction we expected.
Nevertheless, the process action is currently more volatile than ever. Because the news situation is a tsunami – if you let the sum of money what is at stake melting in your mouth.

                 TradingView Symbol since entry target stop
long          ICE-FX_IDC:EURUSD 2023/01/03 1.0545 1.1496 0.9935
long          XETR:ADS 2023/02/12 139.26 170.08 121.30
short        TVC:UKOIL 2023/02/23 82.19 89.05 60.30
TVC:US01Y 2023/03/03 4.79%
long CME:BTC1! 2023/03/20 27945 34420 22875

Due to the current situation just described and briefly commented on the price action, I will formulate a few new 4XSetUps, this week – every day. Because I think the panic is out of the price action! And that´s why is this not a buy signal – admittedly, not an issue. But at least an indicator that the shares in New York are not going down any further and/or in Chicago DXY and/or the US Yield Curve higher! Or?

However, yesterday and/or today i formulated 2 baby blue long 4XSetUps,
based on the last price action of last friday, and/or on todays last price action:

TradingView Symbol since entry target stop
long          CBOT_MINI:YM1! 2023/03/26 32434 35228 31148
long          NASDAQ:TSLA 2023/03/27 191.81 262.47 166.71